2020 US Election (Part Two)

[Gorbles]

It's funny that inno accuses people of being too partisan, quits the thread for a bit (nothing wrong with taking a break, to be clear), and then gets quoted by two of the most politically-partisan voters in OT.

 

[Berzerker]

To prove your point you will need to find a time when temperatures were higher then now, and supported a higher level of human life. Good luck with that! Otherwise your point that "A warmer wetter world might support more people," is utterly speculation.

Oh, well I dont need the fossil record for that. There's more people alive today than in the past so global warming is supporting more people. The population increased and civilization was born during a period of global warming and we're riding that wave. The proof was right before you and will be there tomorrow with an even warmer world and a larger human population.

But my point was life flourished with much warmer temperatures. I dont accept your logic that I need to show a warmer world from the past with a larger human population given the population has never been this big, all I need to show is how life responded to warmer worlds in the past.

I doubt our current population could have existed 4 centuries ago in the little ice age. I'm less worried about CO2 than a lengthy cold snap.

The flaw in your argument is that this is going from a cold climate to a temperate climate, rather than from a temperate climate to a hot one. Humans favor a narrow climate range, and we are already on the high end of it.

I dont know how you're defining hot, temperate and cold so lets deal with actual temperatures. I've seen estimates Greenland warmed up to 18F within a few decades. You argued the current rise in temperature is unprecedented given the time frame. Now you're claiming a small rise in temperature constitutes a 'hot' world, so how would you describe past worlds when the average temp was 15-30F warmer than today?

Those who can will, those who can't will die presumably? Plus mass migrations historically speaking don't tend to be peaceful affairs. For example the end of Roman empire can be linked to climatic changes (in this case less stable and cooler conditions) which caused mass migration and crop failures. However if you look at the chart above, they weren't facing anything as rapidly changing as we are facing.

Less stable, cooler conditions... or more stable, warmer conditions. Those who will, can. Those who wont will adapt. I've lived in below freezing cold and Phoenix, I worked in an open warehouse that would hit 125F, thats a helluva range.

Could it not be said Biden was caught out by the lie too which led to him supporting the Iraq War?

No, he was one of the liars and I'll bet he knew about the torture program too. Pelosi did, I'm sure Senate Democrats like Biden were well informed about what was going on. Thats how the torturers avoid future legal troubles, they make their crimes bipartisan. Thats one of the reasons why few people got prosecuted except for some low level grunts following orders to 'soften' up Iraqi prisoners.

I know Biden and Clinton were in on the lie because of how they acted. If I was a senator and voted for a war based on a lie I'd be furious and I would enthusiastically bring the liars to justice, not cover for them. I seriously doubt more than a handful of congressional members didn't understand it was a scam, they actually had access to intel. Another clue was how the hawks kept citing foreign intel, what do our people say about that? Never mind, trust our foreign intel

Okay lets discuss your indifference to all the lives being lost to climate change.

Which of these scenarios could save the most lives?

A. An opposition senator decides not to support the Iraq war (deaths from Iraq war estimates range from 151,000 violent deaths to 1,033,000). How many lives would have been saved?

The death toll keeps climbing, Iraq, Libya, Yemen, Syria, Afghanistan, and a few other places. But I wouldn't say I'm indifferent, just skeptical about studies blaming a small bump in temperature for an environmental disaster.

B. The leader of the US provides clear and determined leadership when faced with a global pandemic (deaths from Covid 228,000 and still rising). He does not disband the pandemic task force, does not provide confusing health advise (?inject yourself with bleach), does not feud with state governors, does not downplay the danger of the virus despite knowing its dangers, does not feud with the scientists and health experts advising him (such as trying to discredit them), does not promote medications regardless of their actual benefits (see Hydroxychloroquine) and he does lead by example following recommended precautions for dealing with the pandemic such as social distancing and wearing a mask (rather then frequently doing the opposite). How many lives could have been saved?

Not many, Trump doesn't run the states. I remember him sending a hospital ship and rushing ventilators to NYC and other governors thanked him for helping them out. But he was following the advice of the scientists, they told him and the Democrats and the media to avoid panic buying of PPEs so all of them did as told, they downplayed the virus and they downplayed masks. It wasn't Trump who sent infected people into NY nursing homes.

C. The leader of the US takes a lead in combating climate change (deaths from Climate Change by 2050 estimated to rise to 6,500,000).

Our wars on drugs & terror might be in that ballpark by then, but how many lives will result from global warming?

He invests in sustainable energy, works to find ways to reduce carbon dioxide output (there are many). Maybe tariffs are placed on countries that continue to pollute heavily. He does not call climate change a hoax, he does not ignore reports proving it is happening, even those from his own administration, he does not pull out of the Paris accord, he does not promote fossil fuels, he does not pursue over 100 anti-environment policies and removal of regulations designed to protect the environment, he does not undermine the EPA, and he does not put a climate change deniers in charge of the EPA! How many lives could have been saved?

I suggest you watch Planet of the People about 'sustainable' energy. People are working to find ways of reducing CO2, thats one of the reasons your studies about 2050 are irrelevant. I'll repeat this, Obama and Biden oversaw Arctic drilling, oil sands pipelines and the fracking boom. And now Biden's an environmentalist?

By the way how do you feel about the fact that Trump vetoed a senate bill that Biden supported which wanted to end the US support for the humanitarian catastrophe that is the Saudi led war in Yemen? Doesn't really fit in with your narrative does it!

The war in Yemen and our support for SA began under Obama and Biden as part of their "Arab Spring" plan to topple governments they didn't like. Presidents typically veto challenges to their constitutional powers on principle, but I dont like arming SA.

My final question is more one of curiosity, are you against all wars, or just certain ones?

Self defense justifies war

 

[Berzerker]

It's funny that inno accuses people of being too partisan, quits the thread for a bit (nothing wrong with taking a break, to be clear), and then gets quoted by two of the most politically-partisan voters in OT.

I dont vote for the Democrats or Republicans, but why is it funny if I value inno's insights?

 

[Ironsided]

Well as someone who has voted Green in the past, I can exclusively reveal that every Green supporter I know is upset with Trump! See my previous posts for why. But more importantly is this thread big enough for 2 Ironsides? I demand an Ironside off!

Are you alluding to a flyting? Because I am learned to not go in too hard on suckling piglets unable to even read the fundamental message of a single sentence. Especially those who claim ironside while obviously just being green jelly dripping sided turncoats. ;-)

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

Oh, well I dont need the fossil record for that. There's more people alive today than in the past so global warming is supporting more people.

You're joking right?

 

[onejayhawk]

Welcome back. We missed you. Trump has been steadily losing ground in Ohio. I agree that its still a longshot for Biden and would be a complete and total humiliation and abject failure for Trump to lose it, but the fact that Biden is even this close has to be troubling for you and any Republican.

When you say "early vote"... yeah that's just votes. Votes are votes.

Thanks. I have sort have been around.

Votes cast are minds that cannot change, so early votes represent Biden at his strongest.

I didn't check the numbers, but usually a tax cut is not a one time cost, but is applied annually as well.

There is still the part of the bill that lowered the lowered the business rate to make it more in line with other countries. Whether it is a cost is a separate issue. It has been very helpful in increasing exports.

Self defense justifies war

All wars start when a defender draws a line and says, "Stop." Up to that point, the aggressor simply takes. Hence, the expression that war is armed robbery writ large.

J

 

[Kyriakos]

All wars start when a defender draws a line and says, "Stop." Up to that point, the aggressor simply takes. Hence, the expression that war is armed robbery writ large.

J

That's how the second invasion of Iraq, by W, started?

A number of wars were never about defense.

 

[Cloud_Strife]

You're joking right?

He literally thinks entire countries disappearing under flooding is supporting more people lol

 

[amadeus]

I didn't check the numbers, but usually a tax cut is not a one time cost, but is applied annually as well.

True! Figures always need to be looked at with some, for lack of a better word, suspicion. Rs/Ds will say a program costs/saves $100 billion or some big number, but they don’t mention that as being drawn out over 20 or 30 years.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

This was 181.000 deaths before now. So well done fellers? As if doctors know anything about virussen and pandemics. Pfft, losers.

 

[onejayhawk]

That's how the second invasion of Iraq, by W, started? A number of wars were never about defense.

If you consider that a separate war, then yes. Most consider it another phase of one war, but still there were triggering factors.

He literally thinks entire countries disappearing under flooding is supporting more people lol

What counties literally disappeared?

This was 181.000 deaths before now. So well done fellers? As if doctors know anything about virussen and pandemics. Pfft, losers.

Trump has done fairly well. Mark Cuomo, not so much.

Also, the economy is responding.

J

 

[EnglishEdward]

He literally thinks entire countries disappearing under flooding is supporting more people lol

I am sure that scientists can work out how to transition people into aquatics like dolphins.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

In 2016, the Trump team spent smartly on the tipping point states and overcome a slight fundraising deficit with smart spending and tons of earned media. Not Trump himself, he was asking to spend in New York.

In 2020 the Trump team wasted all their money, have scattershot spending with no real gameplan, and not targeted at the tipping point states, have a far greater money disadvantage, and most of their earned media is negative.

It seems like Trump has managed to have more direct control over campaign spending and strategy this time around than last, and it shows up in how incompetently they are managing ad buys.

Yeah the issue is preferred language and language proficiency is a cross-cutting thing that confounds the usual variables for which nationwide polling stratifies. If you're not working in both languages, and weighting responses by both languages, your sample can get skewed and miss differences within the group.

I often caution people against assuming Puerto Rico would be a dependable Democratic power center if it became a state. Many Latinx people in the US have conservative views and would likely support the GOP if only they would stop actively trying to put their children in cages and demonizing them 24/7.

"Ending the pandemic" in this context would be the goal - though it's a bad headline on their part.

'Ending the pandemic' is now being talked about by Trump and his campaign surrogates as something that's already in the past. They are fully projecting that the pandemic is over and Trump ended it.

Do you still hold to your prediction it will be called by 1am for Biden?

No way its called by 1AM... but if it is called on election night it would have to be an incontrovertible Biden landslide. Biden would have to win Texas or Florida, or Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Ohio for them to call it election night.

I think it's definitely possible for Biden to win all of those states. People see that Trump won in 2016 as evidence that all the polls were garbage when in reality they were the most accurate we've had. They were off in a few states because pollsters discounted the growing voting differences between college and non-college whites and further discounted the turnout of the latter. But overall, the polls were actually great and I have confidence the models have been improved this year which means that I think Biden is actually going to pick some of these long-shot states where he's polling even or ahead.

The thing is, it was always going to be close, with or without Covid. Trump is such a polarizing figure. In Britain they would say he is like Marmite. By which I mean you either 'love him or you hate him,' not that he is 'a black viscous yeast extract which people can only tolerate in small amounts.'

Trump could murder someone in cold blood and there would be still right wingers who would justify it and vote for him. Similarly Trump could single handedly find a cure for world hunger, and there would still be left-wingers who wouldn't vote for him.

I recently tried vegemite/marmite, I expected it to be like a bitter tapenade but instead it was a vicious black yeast extract and pretty gross.

As a related aside, there is a fantastic Peruvian restaurant near my job that serves roasted corn kernels as an amuse bouche instead of bread. It's kind of like inverted popcorn, because the corn is popped and edible, but still inside the kernel. Its wild. And they serve it with a delicious spicy mustard sauce. @Cutlass if you haven't been, we gotta go there when covid is over.

What is an amuse bouche? This sounds great though.

This might be the election where anti black voter suppression in Georgia really comes in clutch for the Republicans

That was 2018. The suppression was so bad then that it seems to have created a significant rebound where liberal-leaning voters finally realized how bad they were being suppressed and they've all gone out and registered and voted early. Some of the longest early-voting lines this year have been in Georgia and they've been full of black people specifically.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

Trump has done fairly well.

No he hasn't.

 

[El_Machinae]

I wouldn't be surprised if Trump talks as if he ended the pandemic. More than once, I've gone through a White House talking point that he wasn't able to stick to. And then he shifted the Overton window, and his surrogates then were able to also follow his lead.

 

[Farm Boy]

What, like he talked about the integrity of the court, and then destryoing it as an independent entity?

Screw the peas, I should get a banana.

 

[EgonSpengler]

Someone I know has an order in for a new washing machine, and they mentioned that it isn't expected to be delivered until the 4th week of November. In addition to being a long time to go without a washing machine, that's also Thanksgiving week here. It struck me that a lot of people might've forgotten that, on top of everything else that's happened this year, we're still in a trade war with China. (I don't know that's what caused the delay in this case, but iirc, washing machines were among the first things to get tariffs slapped on them.)

 

[Farm Boy]

Must be nice to have that one out of mind, too!

The trade war, pretty sure, is permanent even if parts of it change around.

 

[KaibaCorp]

Trump has used campaign funds to payoff hookers. Cheated on his pregnant wife; has 12 women who has gone public with accusations of sexual assault. In addition, Trump has said that he approves and indulges in grabbing women's genitals.

Trump and Biden really do have a lot in common. You seem pretty disdainful of Trump, do you see the same about Biden?

And that 33% GDP growth rate is an annualized rate. The 3rd Q run up recoups much of the total loss for the year so far, but does not put us back even with 2017.

I said this. Just goes to show opening the economy is working and not a waste.

Trump opened the economy to get that growth and 200,000 people died. Many more will suffer from long term issues of having had the virus. Is that a worthwhile trade off?

People were dying whether their states were shut down or not. A mass quantity of people who died from the virus that has a 99.96% survival rate were old folks in homes. When the economy is down however, there is the relationship between unemployment and death (and abuse, drug use, etc.) rising inversely, so leaving everything clamped shut would have gotten people killed too (including people who otherwise would’ve almost certainly survived contracting the virus).

Trump misconduct? He is corrupt to the core and has been using the DOJ top prevent investigation into his corruption. His cabinet is corrupt. His campaign is corrupt. His family is corrupt. He has been using tax payer dollars support his private clubs by staying there frequently and charging the government maximum rates.

These are a lot of vague grievances, DOJ made a lot of wrong assumptions and made mistakes, so it makes sense he has misgivings about them. There might be some truth to his family being corrupt, but then again, I think it’s obvious by now that is a black mark that is certainly shared by the Bidens.

 

[EgonSpengler]

A mass quantity of people who died from the virus that has a 99.96% survival rate were old folks in homes.

You're the second person today I've heard/read say this.

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, 23 October 2020 - "Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19, by Age and Race and Ethnicity — United States, January 26–October 3, 2020"

Overall, an estimated 299,028 excess deaths have occurred in the United States from late January through October 3, 2020, with two thirds of these attributed to COVID-19. The largest percentage increases were seen among adults aged 25–44 years and among Hispanic or Latino (Hispanic) persons.