2020 US Election (Part Two)

[Sommerswerd]

You people don't know how do do cod

Of course they do... everyone does.
Step 1 - Eat cod;
Step 2 - wait;
Step 3 - do do cod.

Its quite easy.

 

[Sommerswerd]

So comrades what do we do here on CFC if Biden wins?

Comrade Berserker what are your thoughts?

Step 1 - Communism!
Step 2 - Socialism!
Step 3 - Win!

 

[Zkribbler]

As for the lawyer's supposed letter.
An explicit threat of a lawsuit could be deemed to be extortion. The usual language would be something like, "we will take all steps legally available to protect our clients' interests."
Lawyers tend to avoid the use of pronouns. Opening the letter with "[w]e" sounds weird. I agree with Takisis and Kryiakos that the threat of "enormous damages" is amateurish.

 

[Drakle]

Well this will be fun. I doubt we get the pleasure of seeing the Kushner family following through on this lawsuit considering the possible implications

The fact that they are advertising in New York City, a deep blue stronghold really proves the Lincoln project doesn't actually care about beating Trump, they just want to solicit donations from Democrats by 'epically owning Trump'.


Anyway, the latest round of polling for Texas is looking pretty good for Biden.

The latest polls are

Even

Biden +1

Biden +3

Biden +1

Trump +4

Biden +1

Trump +2

Trump + 7

The Popular vote percentage is forecasted as 50.4% Trump to 48.6% Biden.

Meanwhile back in 2018, Beto had almost no polls where he was in the lead, and the 538 weighted forecast was R+5.3. It ended up being 2.6.

Part of the reason. A big turnout surge. 538 projected bit over 7 million votes, and it ended up being over 8 million.

Now, Texas is up to 75% of its TOTAL 2016 turnout / over 7 million votes cast. So it will almost certainly go past the 8 million Beto got.

All adult in Texas / Registered voters is a group that is much younger, much more diverse and poorer than the Likely Voter / Prior electorates, all three D indicators. New voters lean heavily Democratic, while Republicans are basically maxed out. Trump got 4.6 million in 2016, and I doubt Republicans could go far above 5 million in this election.

In 2016 and 2018 the Texas electorate was majority white, while Texas is actually majority-minority. Of course, it isn't just turnout of a more diverse electorate. Clinton, Beto and now Biden narrowed the once-mighty hold that the Texas GOP had on the white population. Beto actually lost turnout from some south Hispanic electorates but got more votes than Clinton by winning over a ton of white suburbs. Biden from polling has shown similar white gains while showing little movement with minority voters.


Also nationwide, Democrats have made up 49.2% of all ballots cast, while Republicans make up only 27.8%. Nearly everybody is predicting they will come later. But in some states which are mostly mail-in ballots (the west coast and interior west), Republican used to bank their votes in early. Now they aren't. If they wait too long, it will be their votes that could come to the count late/not count.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

That new DC would continue to have representation in Congress that is pretty disproportional. Wouldn't changing the area called EC require changing the constitution? Seems to me it gets sticky.

The disproportional representation for DC would not be any worse than it already is for Wyoming or Vermont so I don't see how that's an issue except for the fact that the reactionaries won't like a block of black voters getting a disproportional share of the EC and Congressional representation instead of white people.

Changing DC's area does not require a Constitutional amendment either, it was already done with the retro-cession of Maryland's contribution to DC back to Maryland.

Edit: It was Virginia that took back its contribution to DC, not Maryland. Though there are frequent proposals for Maryland to take back its portion.

 

[Lexicus]

Changing DC's area does not require a Constitutional amendment either, it was already done with the retro-cession of Maryland's contribution to DC back to Maryland.

Alexandria VA was also part of the Dstrict until seceding back to Virginia in 1846.

 

[Naskra]

DC statehood would certainly require an amendment - the 23rd would have to be repealed and that's an amendment in itself.

 

[Kyriakos]

I think your (the USians) election just got worse/more mud-infested and eroded, with the Hunter pics saga.
On the positive side, one has to suppose that this means Biden isn't compromised by foreign govs, else they would have leaked stuff with him, or keep the Hunter multimedia to compromise Biden senior with.
Either way, this is pretty revolting. I hope Trump gtfo soon.

 

[RobAnybody]

No one with an ounce of sense believes the "laptop from hell" story. For it to be something, you'd have to accept that..
- Hunter Biden got wasted & flew 3000 miles to drop off a laptop to have it fixed...
(why would he even have it fixed? supposedly he's a multi-multi-millionaire so why not just buy a new one?)
- ...that he knew had incriminating photos/vides/emails on it...
- ...that he for some reason kept instead of deleting...
- ...then he forgot about it & never picked it up.
- So the legally blind proprietor of the "laptop repair shop"...
- ...reads the emails & sees the photos...
- ...so he takes it to Rudy Giuliani...
- ...who can't find any paper other than the NY Post to publish the story.

Seems legit.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

DC statehood would certainly require an amendment - the 23rd would have to be repealed and that's an amendment in itself.

Could you explain your reasoning?
All the 23rd does with respect to DC representation is cap the number of EC electors it is entitled to to 3 - which is coincidentally how many they would have if admitted as a state due to the low population of the city (relative to most other states). If DC were to suddenly surge to a few million residents, then it would become an issue as the 23rd would cap them to less congressional districts and EC votes than they'd be entitled to population-wise but that's a far-off eventuality.

Alexandria VA was also part of the Dstrict until seceding back to Virginia in 1846.

I was wrong - Maryland did not take any of its contribution to DC back although there have been many efforts to do this. It was only Virginia that took its contribution back.

 

[Naskra]

Could you explain your reasoning?

It's not about the number of reps. It's that the legal status of the District is clearly something other than "state".

 

[hobbsyoyo]

It's not about the number of reps. It's that the legal status of the District is clearly something other than "state".

Clearly what is considered the territory of the federal district is subject to change as it has already been changed. The proposed statehood bill(s) would not do away with the federal district, just restrict it to certain buildings and parts of the city itself, while making the rest of the city independent of the district.

 

[Naskra]

So go for it. See what happens.

 

[innonimatu]

No one with an ounce of sense believes the "laptop from hell" story. For it to be something, you'd have to accept that..
- Hunter Biden got wasted & flew 3000 miles to drop off a laptop to have it fixed...
(why would he even have it fixed? supposedly he's a multi-multi-millionaire so why not just buy a new one?)
- ...that he knew had incriminating photos/vides/emails on it...
- ...that he for some reason kept instead of deleting...
- ...then he forgot about it & never picked it up.
- So the legally blind proprietor of the "laptop repair shop"...
- ...reads the emails & sees the photos...
- ...so he takes it to Rudy Giuliani...
- ...who can't find any paper other than the NY Post to publish the story.

And yet you fail to demonstrate it isn't.
Handing it over will all the incriminating evidence, and then not returning for it can be easily put down to stupidity? It would be entirely in character with that is known of the owner.
No outright statement was made by the Bidens that the story is false. Why? Just as with Clinton's emails, her supporters first tried to cling to the belief that they were false but they were the real thing.
Not finding any other paper is easy to accept because the major media groups has all aligned on the Biden side. Even Fox is hedging. Why would they publish something damaging to the side they are supporting?

Allegedly the laptop was taken by the FBI. If the story is false the FBI could simply deny possession of such a laptop and kill it. Have they? It is interesting the role the FBI keeps playing in american politics... probably inevitable given the criminality and impunity at the top, law enforcement is political.

Whatever this one turns out to be, what I find really interesting in this is that the same people who were ready to religiously believe the phony russiagate conspiracies - probably still do! - are also ready to immediately dismiss any others that would put "their side" in a bad light.

 

[Hamid.H]

On the positive side, one has to suppose that this means Biden isn't compromised by foreign govs, else they would have leaked stuff with him, or keep the Hunter multimedia to compromise Biden senior with.

i dont see how youre able to draw this conclusion. if they have blackmail material like this theres no reason they couldnt have even more damaging material theyre holding back. besides they already had all of this while biden was in office as vp. thats the real story here.

No one with an ounce of sense believes the "laptop from hell" story.

the bidens have gone into hiding because of it





cocaine is one hell of a drug man

 

[Drakle]

No outright statement was made by the Bidens that the story is false. Why? Just as with Clinton's emails, her supporters first tried to cling to the belief that they were false but they were the real thing.

They were the exact same emails that had already been reviewed and nothing wrong was found in them, again.

Whatever this one turns out to be, what I find really interesting in this is that the same people who were ready to religiously believe the phony russiagate conspiracies - probably still do! - are also ready to immediately dismiss any others that would put "their side" in a bad light.

You mean the thing that was proven 100% right? Trump literally asked Russia to public to hack the DNC. Even a Republican-controlled Senate committee said it was true.

the bidens have gone into hiding because of it

Maybe people would give you a slight ounce of trust if you could be honest about your basic motivations. Instead, you have to play stupid games.

 

[Berzerker]

Yea I dont care if Antifa tries to shut down nazi speech. I do not speak for antifa and someone already covered that antifa is not an organization and thus does not have formal policies or members. So yea I don;t care about your petty bullfeathers here. You value property more then life so I have nothing to say on the matter of BLM, Antifa or nazis. They obviously are not Stalinist in the way you mean. I could say the are like Jesus because some of its members have fed and treated medically the poor. That would not be a sincere representation either.

Yes I know, you dont believe in free speech. When did I say I value property more than life? So shutting down "nazi speech" is not a formal policy and the violent suppression of free speech is not a characteristic of Stalinism if followers fed people.

So comrades what do we do here on CFC if Biden wins?

Comrade Berserker what are your thoughts?

I'll get Medicare sooner...and I imagine we'll be staying in Afghanistan because we cant have a lame duck President ending the war. We might resume more covert means of toppling Syria and I'd expect a return to Obama era trade policies with China's approval. We'll have to wait and see what happens in our war on drugs, thats one area the left has actually had success moving right wing Democrats. They even got Biden saying his crime bills were a mistake.

I see what you did there.

I certainly hope there's room on the left for people who aren't 'comrades', but maybe everyone left of Biden is a commie.

https://www.politicalcompass.org/uselection2020

When I take that test I'm on or near the vertical axis and 3 down from the center on the same horizontal as the libertarian and green nominees. As you can see Biden's way up there in the authoritarian-right quadrant, so yeah, I'm left of Biden.

 

[Hamid.H]

Maybe people would give you a slight ounce of trust if you could be honest about your basic motivations. Instead, you have to play stupid games.

and what game would that be?

besides trust has nothing to do with any of this. the evidence is out there whether you personally trust me or are just chapped because i as a bernie supporter refused to vote for the clintons and will not be voting for the bidens. either way i feel 110% vindicated, especially now that this has come out.

 

[innonimatu]

You mean the thing that was proven 100% right? Trump literally asked Russia to public to hack the DNC. Even a Republican-controlled Senate committee said it was true.

Thank you for the demonstration of my point. You had to resort to a soundbite Trump said for the cameras, clearly a poke/joke at his opponent, to keep religiously defending your precious russiagate (the allegations of which were different, based on that phony dossier written by a russian hired by a DC think-tank).
The world has moved on from that, you can't.

 

[IglooDame]

Allegedly the laptop was taken by the FBI. If the story is false the FBI could simply deny possession of such a laptop and kill it. Have they? It is interesting the role the FBI keeps playing in american politics... probably inevitable given the criminality and impunity at the top, law enforcement is political.

The FBI is quite reasonably starting with an investigation of whether the laptop and its backstory is legit, or it is an attempt by someone to influence the US election.

Whatever this one turns out to be, what I find really interesting in this is that the same people who were ready to religiously believe the phony russiagate conspiracies - probably still do! - are also ready to immediately dismiss any others that would put "their side" in a bad light.

As someone who is no fan of Trump, Biden, Sanders, or really any US politician, I would only note that both sides have this problem.