2020 US Election (Part Two)

[cardgame]

If you're profiting from foisting negative externalities onto others, but assuming that 'everything will be fine', then what happens is that after the data is collated, you recompense the damage done. It's not perfect, but it works. If you're playing softball in the neighborhood, and accidentally smash a neighbor's window, you pay for the window. You know you could have, you took the risk, and it happened.

Externalities from AGW are currently assumed to be about $50 USD per tonne. A lump-sum transfer to those damaged by AGW (for all of your emissions since 1997, even in the future) would absolve someone for current dismissal of the threat. It's why I had to start taking the threat seriously, early, because I cannot live a life of seizing the shoreline of people far away and telling them it's for their own good. Luckily, with AGW both the damages and the offsets are fungible.

'Only when the last tree is felled, the last animal hunted, the last beach flooded, will you learn that mankind cannot live off money alone.'

 

[hobbsyoyo]

Positive Trump polls spark polling circle debate

“There are more [shy Trump voters] than last time and it’s not even a contest,” Cahaly said, adding that it’s “quite possible” that the polling industry is headed for a catastrophic miss in 2020.

Thoughts on the “Shy Tory” factor this year? I’m not seeing it. If I were a pollster, I think my strategy this year would be to overestimate non-vocal Trump support so as to be less wrong than in 2016.

I suspect "Shy Trumpist" is a factor, but it isn't something that can be picked up in polls as polls rely on someone self-reporting.

I just do not see evidence of shy Trump voters this year, at least not personally. People who support Trump live in an alternate reality where everything he does is good and he's on a glide path to easy victory. He's not a racist, it's those people who are the real racists for calling him a racist, so what is there to be shy about in supporting him?

And reading the article shows that a lot of other pollsters have fundamental issues with that particular pollster, so I'm discounting it.

On the eve of the 2016 election, I predicted he would win just based off sticking my finger to the wind. The zeitgeist showed his side had all the energy, excitement and enthusiasm and while I had no idea how the final map would look, I just felt he would surge ahead. He did, kind of, but really only by the skin of his teeth - he won by a margin of only 70k votes in three states.

This year, the winds are blowing the other way, hard. The zeitgeist shows a Biden blowout looming.

@Ajidica, I mean I’m not operating on any empirical basis when I say this but I don’t think the supposed stigma exists to the extent that is talked about in the media, at least this year as far as polling goes.

It seems like retconning shy Rs is a cheap out for pollsters that blew ‘16.

I really feel people have to get off the 'blew 16' bent about the polls. They were the most accurate polls we've had nationally, as well as in most states. A few states were off and Trump barely scraped by. It's not like he won a landslide or something, he just barely got past the post. The EC structure tends to hide that fact by assigning a ton of electors even though he won with sub 1% margins in key states. And the errors that were made in state polls were identified and hopefully corrected.

Edit: Let me walk this back a little bit by saying while the polls were mostly ok in 2016, the way the media portrayed them was way off base and caused most of the heartburn and backlash.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

Is this story correct ?
The risk that the SC decides after the election whether the postal votes for Pennsylvania received after Nov 3 would be valid or not ?



So far so good
but

Yeah the Supreme Court certainly gave themselves a way to tip the scales after the fact, didn't they? And who is surprised? At least Barrett recused herself.

Since Comrade uppi brought this to my attention I'd rather caution you against lumping all Latinos as the same thing

The whole point of that post was to caution against lumping all the Latinx voters together under the Democratic tent just because they are people of color. I am very aware that there are many different nationalities and ethnicity under the 'Latinx' label and they all have their own voter alignments. That does not change the fact that many of these groups lean conservative on many social issues in the US as a rule.

 

[W|M]

Cuban -and lately Venezuelan- exiles and their descendants pay attention to the lip service paid by Republicans about Cuba -and lately Venezuela- in spite of the fact that Donald Trump has had a licence to operate commercially in Cuba since 2010 issued by the Cuban government in the former case and that the US always bought up Venezuelan oil as long as there still was any oil production in Venezuela so his later talk of embargoes is just for show.

latinos in south florida specifically should really be counted seperately from all other latinos in the US considering how different the demographics (and accordingly the political opinions) tend to be

 

[Gorbles]

Fair, non-partisan Democrat: The evil Republicans are killing people
Most partisan voter in OT: The Democrats are killing people too
Fair, non-partisan Democrat: Thats whataboutism, you're hyper partisan

You so desperately wanted a reaction that you had to quote this twice?

Anyway, I'm not a Democrat, and though you're likely not referring to me, the fact that I'm not makes your entire reach for validation pointless.

 

[Sommerswerd]

The 8th slice of pizza is decorative.

Only in a 3 person family

 

[Edmund Ironside]

I have presented evidence, you dismissed it because the warmer world I cited didn't have as many (or any) people as today. So now my evidence is today, yesterday, tomorrow, next year... There will be more people in a warmer world.



The last ice age was on the severe side, the global warming that followed was interrupted by the Younger Dryas cold reversal (12,900-11,700bp) but when it resumed the temperature rose far more far faster than what we're experiencing. Up to 18F in Greenland in a few decades. Your own link shows the early Holocene was warmer than today.



Sounds like a San Francisco summer. What do you set your thermostat at?



The data I've seen estimate the YD warming was 10+-4C or 18+-7F within a few decades.

Hmmm, my last post cited 8 sources, your reply cited 0.

Much as I would love to continue this, the debate is like fitting wheels to a tomato: time consuming and completely pointless.

I think we are definitely here now:

neither of us are going to change our views, so it is probably not a great use of either of our times.

 

[Estebonrober]

Hmmm, my last post cited 8 sources, your reply cited 0.

Much as I would love to continue this, the debate is like fitting wheels to a tomato: time consuming and completely pointless.

I think we are definitely here now:

but I wanted to convince you that 20 ft sea level rise and 135 degree temps for months at a time across the tropics would help humanity!

 

[Edmund Ironside]

You so desperately wanted a reaction that you had to quote this twice?

Anyway, I'm not a Democrat, and though you're likely not referring to me, the fact that I'm not makes your entire reach for validation pointless.

Now I really want to know who these 3 posters are.
The most partisan voter on OT sounds like an impressive accolade!

 

[hobbsyoyo]

Also, have you all not run into Trump voters? To me, they are the most in-your-face enthusiasts I've ever seen. I just don't get the idea that there is a ton of shy Trump supporters when I see them in MAGA hats and honking at me as they drive by in American flag-draped convoys of SUV's on a daily basis.

Contrast that with Biden's supporters - I have literally* never seen a single Biden t-shirt and very few yard signs, and I live in a newly-blue district in California, fwiw.

*not figuratively

 

[Ajidica]

Being an egregious offender of the insane Scandinavian-inspired social order, I have been now in self-imposed exile for over a decade.

I was socially isolated growing up, so I feel I have no obligation to abide by the very rules that excluded me from that society.

The last dinner roll? It’s mine.

No wonder you were exiled from Minnesota!

 

[Farm Boy]

Only in a 3 person family

True, even numbers get divided. The last slice also gets cut. Pizza's good like that. Sometimes it just winds up breakfast to restart the sharing process from scratch.

 

[Sommerswerd]

True, even numbers get divided. The last slice also gets cut. Pizza's good like that. Sometimes it just winds up breakfast to restart the sharing process from scratch.

I've cut up more leftover pizza slices than I can count.

 

[Farm Boy]

I always got a kick out of trying to decide when the college party was going to get drunk enough to finally finish off the last slice sitting there in the last box stacked on top of the empties. International students were useful for getting the kitchen cleaned up sooner!

 

[Sommerswerd]

'Only when the last tree is felled, the last animal hunted, the last beach flooded, will you learn that mankind cannot live off money alone.'

Reminds me of "The Lorax"

 

[Sommerswerd]

I always got a kick out of trying to decide when the college party was going to get drunk enough to finally finish off the last slice sitting there in the last box stacked on top of the empties. International students were useful for getting the kitchen cleaned up sooner!

LOLs... you've never partied with football players. Forget about the last slice being eaten... that's a given... you start thinking about who is going to eat the first box

 

[Farm Boy]

Athletes are always an exception. In Midwestern, "they're a little different."

 

[amadeus]

No wonder you were exiled from Minnesota!

I don’t miss it. Downtown Mpls. has turned into a craphole. What happened to City Center, and Dayton’s? Used to be such a nice place, especially the restaurants. IDS also had that Woolworth’s in it too.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

90 million people have already voted in this election which is equal to 2/3rds of the 2016 total turnout.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/31/politics/2020-early-voting-90-million-voted/index.html

 

[mitsho]

So, rather, is there evidence for a "Shy Biden" supporter ? I actually kinda expect the polls to be. Abit wrong afain, but this time in the other direction. And even a 2 point move can do a lot there.