But slow growth isn't going to stimulate things like the rapid one did. It's not a question of reaching a threshold, but of rates of increase outpacing one another; it was that disparity that got things going in the direction that they did. Without the Black Death - or an equivalent Malthusian check - there wouldn't have been the labor problems that stimulated technological development, most specifically in the areas of firearms and the printing press.Yes, yes, there is all that, and I do not deny that it had a lot of very significant short-term (for a long-term definition of short-term) effects, but it is not as though urbanisation had not been steadily ongoing since the eleventh century or so. The cities were growing and urban economy was developing, if at a somewhat sluggish pace after the initial boom. The process was sped up by decades, perhaps centuries, but it is a bit silly to claim that it was not happening at all before the Plague. Generally speaking this sort of demographic and economic instability is good for refreshing the society and speeding up its progress (the fact that it also sort of disrupts the "healthy", "organic" development, e.g. what you said about personal wealth, can be good in that it indeed stimulates further advances out of desperation); but as for its long-term results, those could have been reached just fine without it.
Alternate History Thread IV: The Sequel
- Thread starter Dachs
- Start date
das
Regeneration In Process
Certainly, but the absence of a plague would not have frozen all development either. Both firearms and the printing press would've found their use in due time, though it might've been a bit different in specifics and would've happened later and more gradually. The Black Death alone was not accountable for any of the defining characteristics of European civiliation, its effects had merely accentuated them farther.
Also, didn't it set back the cities as well, at first? To be sure, by disrupting certain established institutions it had refreshed the urban life as well, but otherwise the cities would have simply entered a period of stagnation that would've ended in dissent, crisis and reform or revolution. But urban culture and science, and presumably technology as well, was set back quite a bit too; the 14th century before the Plague was pretty nice in this regard, especially in France (arguably the Plague shifted the balance away from France and towards England as far as urban development was concerned).
Also, didn't it set back the cities as well, at first? To be sure, by disrupting certain established institutions it had refreshed the urban life as well, but otherwise the cities would have simply entered a period of stagnation that would've ended in dissent, crisis and reform or revolution. But urban culture and science, and presumably technology as well, was set back quite a bit too; the 14th century before the Plague was pretty nice in this regard, especially in France (arguably the Plague shifted the balance away from France and towards England as far as urban development was concerned).
Amusingly enough what I've come up with matches Das's ideas fairly well, sure most of it isn't down on paper [Russia ] but it's more or less aligned.
The Jing do collapse, it is occupied by the Mongols, but becomes a perennial dumping ground for whatever nomads want to break out of the steppes and wreck things. It rapidly de-urbanizes for the most part and evidences a steady breakdown in sedentary agriculture in the areas most prone to attack. It more or less becomes worthless, compared to the South.
Korea is an interesting problem, I was throwing around the idea of it being influenced by Japan through a possible invasion by the Kamakura Shogunate as a last attempt to regain some degree of a mandate at home. It would fail but secure a few nominal possessions of the Japanese which would steadily diffuse influence into Korea and Nipponese it.
How do the Song gain and influence in South East Asia? I reasoned that with the lack of invasion by the Mongols, Chinese vessels in the region would become far more common. What this would achieve would be the slow driving away of Malay traders from Śrīvijayan which would slowly impoverish the entrepots slowly turning them into ports dependent heavily upon Song trade. This weakening of the individual cities of the league would remove the hegomen status of Jambi and Palembang [at that time dominant] which would bring about a slow contraction and reorientation towards the straits proper and away from Southern Sumatra. This would be bought to a head by the Singhasari invasion in 1288, which would be checked by a hastily deployed Song fleet and the nucleus of an army which would eventually be primarily made up of allies. Which would more or less cement a new relationship, with the Song gaining the role of hegomen in the league's hierarchy. It would take a show of strength later in the decade to drive off the Khmer from the Malay Peninsula proper before the whole thing would more or less fall into place. The Song would gain a handful of cities as direct vassals, and eventually place their own Princely choices backed up by Song or Song trained bureaucrats. A few cities might even come to be ruled by ethnic Chinese who would increasingly become common. The whole lot would eventually come firmly into Song influence and more or less align itself completely. [Some extra butterflies in this whole scenario which I haven't elaborated on, it doesn't exactly go the Song's way a 100%].
The Đai Việt are also in some serious trouble, but I won't elaborate on that atm.
I'm currently up to Pagan, the Khmer, the Kingdom of Dali, I don't know about the Philippines all of which should be done tonight [expecting the Philippines which are a mess] till 1390.
Tomorrow will begin the harrowing process of handling India. Without the Mongol impetus of conquering the pleasant areas around India I don't see as many Turk fleeing them entering India. Which might spare the various native princes abit of grief, I wouldn't go so far as to say the Second Battle of Tarain will be different, but the after effects will be far lessened, at least in terms of the Muslim forces holding territory since they won't have any of the displaced Turks to play with. You’re still likely to see large tracts of the East fall, but not as far as OTL with a chance of it being blunted. Still working on the specifics of that. Sultan Raziya is kind of awesome will be doing more reading on her
Now onto addressing comments:
Not the intent of this alt-hist, I would guess that the voyages in the region might be sufficient that the kill period of the Black Death will trigger, there would have been active trade and it doesn't appear to have spread that way. But it's not the intention of this alt hist.
The Church will suffer, it already was heaving under the weight of its own sins [Dante] I’m still interested in the possible specifics so please throw them at me, but I’ll work on those later.
Covered above. The Indian entry will be sometime later, and not necessarily by the “Song” proper
Agreed, but the region will still survive as an irrigated state, which is important for later. It will also be overrun, just a touch later. This will have interesting effects for India proper and Iran later. Iran is going to be interesting to say the least, and will be rather super. Shiraz will have significant Chinese visitations, but there will others who will be equally important. It will encompass Iran, bits of Central Asia, might have a presence in India/Afghanistan and thereabouts, but will be rather constrained elsewhere.
As to Asia Minor and the Levent I have a vague idea of what’s going to happen there but I’m open to suggestions. East Africa will be amusing.
Egypt is going to be interesting, but you should not rule out another wack at the place by the Crusaders. Egypt will have issues in the middle east, by necessity of the writer and future mod
It will be discovered much later, and I’m not sure about who is going to discover it… but someone will. I see it more than likely by accident trying to shoot out to sea to catch the winds down the coast of Africa, and overshooting into Brazil.
The America’s civilizations will probably be aided by, 1) a generally weaker technologically wise Europe, 2) some delay in their discovery, 3) a less lucky Europe they will still fall but not as hard or as quick 
Eastern Europe overload… currently processing
Masada knows them, Europe will suffer
Noted and ignored for artistic license, and the knowledge of only a few years ago Suffice to say a weaker plague will be likely, heck inevitable…
] but it's more or less aligned. The Jing do collapse, it is occupied by the Mongols, but becomes a perennial dumping ground for whatever nomads want to break out of the steppes and wreck things. It rapidly de-urbanizes for the most part and evidences a steady breakdown in sedentary agriculture in the areas most prone to attack. It more or less becomes worthless, compared to the South.
Korea is an interesting problem, I was throwing around the idea of it being influenced by Japan through a possible invasion by the Kamakura Shogunate as a last attempt to regain some degree of a mandate at home. It would fail but secure a few nominal possessions of the Japanese which would steadily diffuse influence into Korea and Nipponese it.
How do the Song gain and influence in South East Asia? I reasoned that with the lack of invasion by the Mongols, Chinese vessels in the region would become far more common. What this would achieve would be the slow driving away of Malay traders from Śrīvijayan which would slowly impoverish the entrepots slowly turning them into ports dependent heavily upon Song trade. This weakening of the individual cities of the league would remove the hegomen status of Jambi and Palembang [at that time dominant] which would bring about a slow contraction and reorientation towards the straits proper and away from Southern Sumatra. This would be bought to a head by the Singhasari invasion in 1288, which would be checked by a hastily deployed Song fleet and the nucleus of an army which would eventually be primarily made up of allies. Which would more or less cement a new relationship, with the Song gaining the role of hegomen in the league's hierarchy. It would take a show of strength later in the decade to drive off the Khmer from the Malay Peninsula proper before the whole thing would more or less fall into place. The Song would gain a handful of cities as direct vassals, and eventually place their own Princely choices backed up by Song or Song trained bureaucrats. A few cities might even come to be ruled by ethnic Chinese who would increasingly become common. The whole lot would eventually come firmly into Song influence and more or less align itself completely. [Some extra butterflies in this whole scenario which I haven't elaborated on, it doesn't exactly go the Song's way a 100%].
The Đai Việt are also in some serious trouble, but I won't elaborate on that atm.
I'm currently up to Pagan, the Khmer, the Kingdom of Dali, I don't know about the Philippines all of which should be done tonight [expecting the Philippines which are a mess] till 1390.
Tomorrow will begin the harrowing process of handling India. Without the Mongol impetus of conquering the pleasant areas around India I don't see as many Turk fleeing them entering India. Which might spare the various native princes abit of grief, I wouldn't go so far as to say the Second Battle of Tarain will be different, but the after effects will be far lessened, at least in terms of the Muslim forces holding territory since they won't have any of the displaced Turks to play with. You’re still likely to see large tracts of the East fall, but not as far as OTL with a chance of it being blunted. Still working on the specifics of that. Sultan Raziya is kind of awesome will be doing more reading on her
Now onto addressing comments:
Not the intent of this alt-hist, I would guess that the voyages in the region might be sufficient that the kill period of the Black Death will trigger, there would have been active trade and it doesn't appear to have spread that way
. But it's not the intention of this alt hist. The Church will suffer, it already was heaving under the weight of its own sins [Dante
] I’m still interested in the possible specifics so please throw them at me, but I’ll work on those later.Covered above. The Indian entry will be sometime later, and not necessarily by the “Song” proper
Agreed, but the region will still survive as an irrigated state, which is important for later. It will also be overrun, just a touch later. This will have interesting effects for India proper and Iran later. Iran is going to be interesting to say the least, and will be rather super. Shiraz will have significant Chinese visitations, but there will others who will be equally important. It will encompass Iran, bits of Central Asia, might have a presence in India/Afghanistan and thereabouts, but will be rather constrained elsewhere.
As to Asia Minor and the Levent I have a vague idea of what’s going to happen there but I’m open to suggestions. East Africa will be amusing.
Egypt is going to be interesting, but you should not rule out another wack at the place by the Crusaders. Egypt will have issues in the middle east, by necessity of the writer and future mod
It will be discovered much later, and I’m not sure about who is going to discover it… but someone will. I see it more than likely by accident trying to shoot out to sea to catch the winds down the coast of Africa, and overshooting into Brazil.
The America’s civilizations will probably be aided by, 1) a generally weaker technologically wise Europe, 2) some delay in their discovery, 3) a less lucky Europe
they will still fall but not as hard or as quick Eastern Europe overload… currently processing
Masada knows them, Europe will suffer
Noted and ignored for artistic license, and the knowledge of only a few years ago
Suffice to say a weaker plague will be likely, heck inevitable… 
Disenfrancised
Beep Beep
Correction, some time after circumnavigating africa, they will discover Brazil - the wind patterns basically mandate it (unless you declare that everyone 'be stupid' for a century or so). This is one of the reasons why I became disatisfied with das' 'Transoceania' TL
.Exactly.
They won't have as pressing a reason to circumnavigate Africa as early. Courtesy of some degree of competition in the spice market which will have a few possible points of entrance. My plans in Indonesia will also increase the amount of spice available, dropping the prices at point of pickup [that will not make a major change]. It'll happen but the discovery of the Aztec and Inca might be significantly delayed... depending on my mood.
They won't have as pressing a reason to circumnavigate Africa as early. Courtesy of some degree of competition in the spice market which will have a few possible points of entrance. My plans in Indonesia will also increase the amount of spice available, dropping the prices at point of pickup [that will not make a major change]. It'll happen but the discovery of the Aztec and Inca might be significantly delayed... depending on my mood.
das
Regeneration In Process
I rather doubt it; sedentary civilisation in such a convenient region could only ever collapse temporarily. The Mongols will eventually rebuild it themselves, I think; and then there will be noone left to attack it except the increasingly civilised Mongols. It still would be rather insignificant as compared to the South, though, yes.
Really not sure. It could happen in the long term, but for now Japan should have its own problems, not to mention its endemic power projection difficulties.
You see, I'm not sure here. That is to say, they would ofcourse remain much more common than in OTL, but what would be there to motivate any sort of a dramatic increase?
That seems rather, ah, fortuitous. Also, I am increasingly of the opinion that China is going to miss out on this particular opportunity; the Song Dynasty was past its prime by the middle of the 13th century.
There is also the matter of Chinese foreign policy not working that way, at least not explicitly. Leagues-schmeagues: all the foreign rulers are tributaries of the Son of Heaven anyway, and I really don't see how would the Chinese be interested in establishing any degree of direct control in South-East Asia beyond Vietnam, or in involving themselves unduly much in local geopolitics.
Chinese hegemony in South-East Asia is possible, but it would take centuries for China to become genuinely concerned with such things, and even then it seems a bit dubious (one more reason for a dynasty change: after the urban middle class grows prominent enough, it could support whoever reunites China after it implodes once again, and so establish a closer rapport with the government than was possible earlier).
I sort of doubt that India would change much until the later 14th century or so.
Certainly, that was just an example.
India, especially beyond the Indus, isn't really a traditional or a natural direction for Persian expansion. What's wrong with trying to take over the Indian Ocean trade? The Persians were way better at this than the Chinese.
I'm not sure if they could really fall in a way that isn't hard. No matter what, the disparity is great. Also, why the hell would Europe be less advanced if it has more contacts with China and the like? I'm still not convinced by either edge of the Black Death argument: it still would have happened and had it not happened it still wasn't all good, though it helped.
Symphony D.
Deity
Retroactive deletion.
I didn't say it would permanent or complete but it will see a breakdown in agriculture in those areas most prone to attacks with a reorientation to the most defensible. The Mongols will more or less reclaim it yes. However I foresee a mass evacuation of the general populace to the South, especially in the middle to upper class worse than OTL, because more damage has been done to the infrastructure than OTL. Keep in mind this section from the original Mongol beatdown is still yet to be written up to my initial end date of 1390.
I still to have to write this part, but I basically see the invasion fail, with a number of coastal towns being retained and steadily built up. But yes it will be a long term general aim. The failure will be a stand in for the Mongol invasion and subsequent collapse of the Shogunate.
It's over the period of the whole space of just under 200 odd years. The process had been happening for a significant time prior to this just as a note, and it was having serious effects on the Śrīvijayan up until the Song fell apart. There would also be the aforementioned growth in the middle and upper class, which would also follow a general trend of prosperity by reduced military expenditure [probably not significant cuts] which would increase demand for spices especially pepper earlier than the Yuan and Ming inspired binge.
Granted it is, whose to say the individual Emperors matter all that much
As previously stated the league was weakening as Chinese traffic increased prior the Song dynasty, and the Hegomon status of the various major cities were already in free-fall. The traffic increases, special privileges, and general competitive egde knocked out the local merchants and weakened the dominant southern Sumatran states that's what killed the league in OTL more than the Singhasari. The Singhasari did the final death blow, but even when they sacked Palembang one of the titular "powers" they were sacking an entrepot which was increasingly irrelevant because it was so far south. There wouldn't be a dominant state in the region after the "fall" of Śrīvijayan power in the region till Malakeh a fair while after [and even then you can blame the Chinese for setting it up, giving it patronage and then strangling it later
]. They siddled into to "save" a league which was on its death knell, despite being significantly stronger than OTL, and ended up fulfilling the role of the dominant hegomen, through the acquisition early of colonies. Even more amusingly, the league wouldn't require much in the way of "maintenance" by the Emperor, ethnic Chinese rulers did happen and are a distinctly increased possibility with increased Chinese contact, not to mention the economic power than Chinese merchants exerted, and even better the traditional Śrīvijayan "navy" could be maintained by simply paying them with tolls... taken from much weakened city states. It doesn't even necessarily need to rule it directly, I hope I made that clear.
A 182 years to run/control a relatively helpless maritime league, and to semi-influence/kind of control the Dai Viet, isn't to much of an ask.
Regime change is a possibility, I'm currently looking for a viable candidate.
On India, there would be no Khiliji Sultans for Dehli and no significant amount of Turks/newcomers driven out by the Mongol advance, more or less giving the native princes a reprieve. A Khiliji dynasty for Persia sounds good
Khiliji dynasty ftw?
The question is would this increased contact diffuse knowledge? The Chinese for a while are likely to just trade to the native Malays or Indians, who would then trade through the Persians or Arabs. Might not the dispersion be different. One must also look at the institutions of Europe first, with a slower death of feudalism [in some places, the Netherlands is to cool assuming it rises
], it won't have a banking sector past the system it had before, it won't have as much social mobility, it won't suffer from a labor/wages spike which drove an inventing/incorporation spree can you imagine an attempt to introduce labor saving devices in a still heavily populated Europe and the trouble/social discord that would cause? China in reverse. I do still think the America's will fall, but the question is how far, how fast, how so and to whom.
A war spanning decades with a strong native resistance to a less determined or experienced or lucky foe might well see them crushed but still in a reasonable shape, it will also dictate a different approach to the situation. How fast will they be discovered, if the population drop has been endured, and the situation has begun to improve they will put up that much of a harder fight, sure they will fall but it will take decades instead of a few lucky strikes to decapitate them resistance will be that much fiercer. Do they fall to military conquest in a rapid series of strikes, or do they fall in a long slow campaign which might spawn splinters. Do they fall to a group which will occupy them, or coopt them or just leave them alone after they loot the place?
To that all I have to say is.... Masada
Consider this a draft of South East Asia, no I haven't done China, Korea or Japan yet up to 1390 yet suggestions are welcome.
I would also note, that writing a TL is fun and is a very good aid to possible subjects at learned institutions.
Final note: 1390 is an arbitrary date to wind up the first section of my TL, end date still unknown, suggestions also welcome.
Spoiler :
I would also note, that writing a TL is fun and is a very good aid to possible subjects at learned institutions.
Final note: 1390 is an arbitrary date to wind up the first section of my TL, end date still unknown, suggestions also welcome.
qoou
Emperor
- Joined
- Dec 13, 2007
- Messages
- 1,991
Quick question:
Let's say that at the Battle of Lützen (1632) Pappenheim had failed to arrive (the courier carrying the note from Wallenstein got... struck by a rooftile). Other from depriving us from an idiom I can't resist but smile at every time I hear it, it would've allowed Stalhandske's cavalry to continue their rampage through Wallenstein's rear. Ultimately, this would've led to a much greater Swedish victory, and much more importantly wouldn't have led to Adolphus's death. Instead of falling apart, the Protestant allies would've continued beating the Hapsburgs in campaign after campaign (we could even make Wallenstein die at Lützen). Now, my question is: could have anything come out of Adolphus's ambitious plans to become Holy Roman Emperor and unite the Holy Roman Empire and Sweden in this TL?
Let's say that at the Battle of Lützen (1632) Pappenheim had failed to arrive (the courier carrying the note from Wallenstein got... struck by a rooftile). Other from depriving us from an idiom I can't resist but smile at every time I hear it, it would've allowed Stalhandske's cavalry to continue their rampage through Wallenstein's rear. Ultimately, this would've led to a much greater Swedish victory, and much more importantly wouldn't have led to Adolphus's death. Instead of falling apart, the Protestant allies would've continued beating the Hapsburgs in campaign after campaign (we could even make Wallenstein die at Lützen). Now, my question is: could have anything come out of Adolphus's ambitious plans to become Holy Roman Emperor and unite the Holy Roman Empire and Sweden in this TL?
This sounds like the question that das used to start not one, but two of his alternate histories. (Admittedly, one of them was a Guess-the-PoD map, which led to NES2 V; the other is a TL of his, which can be accessed in the TL repository.)
qoou
Emperor
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My question? That's cool; so what did das decide would've happened? (or actually I'll just look at NES2 V)
Wait, TL repository? Do we seriously have one, as in a compilation of various interesting ATLs?
qoou
Emperor
- Joined
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It's in my sig, under 'list of published alternate history works'.
Thank you so much; and Symph, thank you too for working on that project if you read this.
Symphony D.
Deity
Retroactive deletion.
das
Regeneration In Process
Ah, I've been following that. It's a shame that real Paradox games aren't quite as awesome, event- and timeline flexibility-wise.
Luckymoose
The World is Mine
That LP looks amazing.
das
Regeneration In Process
The Bulgarian tsars flirted with that movement every now and then, especially the ones that needed to rally popular support against the Byzantine Empire. Maybe have a tsar go the whole distance (i.e. make Bogomilism the state religion) and survive at that?
You could also have a more successful Bogomil peasant uprising; it probably won't have any lasting conquests for the religion, but it should screw over Bulgaria nicely (a la Poland 1034).
You could also have a more successful Bogomil peasant uprising; it probably won't have any lasting conquests for the religion, but it should screw over Bulgaria nicely (a la Poland 1034).
I just want to put forth an opinion for the thought of people in alternative history. Basicallly the influence of the decisions made upon literature, music, and religion. For example, anyone who'd look at the history of modern popular music has to look at slavery in the United States as its origins. A lot of NESers in alternative history NESes seem to ignore this, cause a lot of changes could be made even in the short time span of the twentieth century.
Therefore i put before you a challenge to consider music and literary effects in alternative history as well as the usual political implications. Culture often dictates society's choices, and cannot be ignored.
Therefore i put before you a challenge to consider music and literary effects in alternative history as well as the usual political implications. Culture often dictates society's choices, and cannot be ignored.
