Is the American Civil War escalating into an early World War possible? Possibly something along the lines of a more significant Confederate Victory and a botched Trent affair bringing France and Great Britain onto the side of the Confederates, then with France being more tied up in North America (since they are also in Mexico) the Franco-Prussian War gets pushed earlier and a Polish uprising supported by Britain and France brings Russia in against them? At all feasible?
Possible, I suppose. The problem with intervention is dual. First off, Britain is the deciding factor in intervention in the first two years because Napoleon was too timid at that time to do anything without the clear support of the Brits. Hell, that's part of the reason he blundered into the abrogation of the Russo-French Dual Alliance in 1863...he couldn't
not tell his ally off... And Britain is unlikely to do much. Seward I think is one of the best unsung diplomats in history and he kept things working extremely well in Anglo-American relations. I doubt even without Albert's alteration to the British note that the
Trent affair could have escalated too much, and in 1862 John Slidell's repeated failures in contacting Lord Russell are not encouraging at all. While the effect of the abolitionist sentiments of the British proletarians has been vastly overrated, the British Government simply weren't interested in even declaring the Federal blockade illicit at the time, much less in a war. It's been said many times, of course, that a diplomatic attack on the validity of the Union blockade would have cast a shadow of doubt on Britain's own use of the device.
Anyhow,
ceteris paribus in the actual fortunes of war between the Union and the Confederacy, British intervention is unlikely before Gettysburg, Tullahoma, and Vicksburg. Napoleonic intervention in favor of the South was more likely from a geopolitical viewpoint and certainly from a personal one, because Napoleon was both more sympathetic to the Southern cause than were even his own citizens (much less the British) and had a good reason to see a compliant Confederacy on his Mexican sockpuppet's northern border as opposed to an angry and powerful Union. But the problems with him were the aforementioned fear of acting without Britain before Gettysburg made British intervention a nonissue, and after Gettysburg he was simply worried that any French aid to the South wouldn't have had an effect.
Purely in terms of me being extraordinarily interested in wacky diplomatic/geostrategic schemes, what does anybody think of Seward's plan to forestall American Civil War in 1860-1 by launching an attack on the Spanish Empire over the Spanish intervention in Santo Domingo? It might get Southerners on-side over the issue of annexing Cuba, and even as early as the 1860s (before the failure of a war with Chile and the rather embarrassing result of the attempt to recolonize Santo Domingo) the Spanish were an easy mark.
This will be the third try, I think. Good luck, but please do consult silver, if only because he already received lots of useful data from Meshabber of Dis and myself.
silver's taken a lot of the stats off and as previously mentioned isn't
formally around.
I would like to reserve Venice in the Unlightenment timeline and Japan or the Serbian "Byzantine Empire" (as I remember they were a sort of Serbian nation that conquered Constantinople) in the "Arcadia" one. I wuold have liked to reserve Italy in Arcadia, but Matt0088 took it...
What's with the concentration of peepz around me? I might as well just go back to the HRE after all!
Actually, screw it, I will.