Alternate History Thread IV: The Sequel

Constans II and Theodoros were allies?

It's more that Theodoros was his subordinate (but I suppose you could call him a political ally; he just wasn't all that important outside of his specific theatre of operations, I think).

Theodoros Rshtuni: full of fail or did he have something going for him? I'm somewhat interested in the possibilities he has for messing with Muawiyah and Konstas II Pogonatos. Thoughts?

What do you mean by "something"? An independent Armenia would not have been viable; on the other hand, defending it from the Arabs was far from being outside the realm of possibility, and then Theodoros would ofcourse have remained in charge there. Or were you thinking of him possibly scoring a huge victory, gaining temporary security and lots of political prestige, and doing what every Byzantine emperor knows every Byzantine general really wants to do?
 
Or were you thinking of him possibly scoring a huge victory, gaining temporary security and lots of political prestige, and doing what every Byzantine emperor knows every Byzantine general really wants to do?
Yeah. No themes - or well, no final implementation thereof - kind of screws over the Empire fiscally and will probably lead to its collapse around the turn of the century, which I think is a more acceptable PoD than fiddling with the 717-8 siege. Alternatively you could have him lead some kind of revolt in Dimashq during his captivity there, but I don't know enough about the probably-nonexistent mob dynamics of that city in its early days to be able to say whether it will help much.
 
Sorry, this really is more up your ante. That said, why wouldn't Theodore I the Armenian implement the themes? Or do you simply think he won't do it in time?

Anyway, the Swiss. Am I the only one who thinks that the 14th-15th century demographic tensions they experienced (culminating in the rise of the Swiss mercenaries) are a bit similar to what happened with the Arabs in the 7th century or on a smaller scale with a lot of smaller ethnic groups in Iran, India and elsewhere over the ages (the Sikhs particularly come to mind)? Suppose the Habsburgs had somehow managed to prevail in Switzerland, squash the rebellions and establish their iron rule there for a time; suppose, then, that they held out until the early 15th century with the help of the Catholic Church, resulting in a rapidly growing, thoroughly embittered population. Then let's have an early 15th century heresy spread there; sure, there is nothing comparable with the University of Prague there, but I would think an extant moderate reformist movement could catch on in the cities, possibly indirectly connected with the Council of Basel. Then it could be politicised during the clashes with the bishops and the Habsburg governors, and radicalised Tabor-style in the forest cantons. If the movement gets a sufficiently charismatic leader, we could at least have another Hussite War equivalent, but with some luck and a truly superior overall leader, nearby confusion and socio-political instability could even be used to lay the foundations of the Swiss Empire, which ofcourse is the point of this exercise. If you have any better ideas as to how we could get there, by all means share.
 
Sorry, this really is more up your ante. That said, why wouldn't Theodore I the Armenian implement the themes? Or do you simply think he won't do it in time?

Anyway, the Swiss. Am I the only one who thinks that the 14th-15th century demographic tensions they experienced (culminating in the rise of the Swiss mercenaries) are a bit similar to what happened with the Arabs in the 7th century or on a smaller scale with a lot of smaller ethnic groups in Iran, India and elsewhere over the ages (the Sikhs particularly come to mind)? Suppose the Habsburgs had somehow managed to prevail in Switzerland, squash the rebellions and establish their iron rule there for a time; suppose, then, that they held out until the early 15th century with the help of the Catholic Church, resulting in a rapidly growing, thoroughly embittered population. Then let's have an early 15th century heresy spread there; sure, there is nothing comparable with the University of Prague there, but I would think an extant moderate reformist movement could catch on in the cities, possibly indirectly connected with the Council of Basel. Then it could be politicised during the clashes with the bishops and the Habsburg governors, and radicalised Tabor-style in the forest cantons. If the movement gets a sufficiently charismatic leader, we could at least have another Hussite War equivalent, but with some luck and a truly superior overall leader, nearby confusion and socio-political instability could even be used to lay the foundations of the Swiss Empire, which ofcourse is the point of this exercise. If you have any better ideas as to how we could get there, by all means share.

A Swiss Empire? I am intrigued

Anyways, I am interested in the possible sucessful formation of a Mongol-Crusader State alliance. very plausible, and thus no seventh eigth or ninth crusade. This would have interesting consequences all across the land, including Louis IX possibly developing into the great king he should have been.
 
I wholly support a Swiss Empire :goodjob:

Also I've been playing Rhyes of Civ in C3C as Korea and since I was locked in from land expansion by China and the Mongols, and plus Japan close by I basically went the naval route and created a Korean colonial empire developing good seafaring capability and I colonized Southern China, Taiwan, and the Phillipenes and have a oligarch republic type governement.

Under what circumstances in RL could a Korean colonial empire have developed? I mean thinking about it it seems to make a lot of sense to me. So why didn't it happen?
 
Sorry, this really is more up your ante. That said, why wouldn't Theodore I the Armenian implement the themes? Or do you simply think he won't do it in time?
The latter. Konstas II had three uninterrupted years of peace (659-662) and legitimacy behind him when he created the thematic system. Settling soldiers on royal land wasn't a new idea then and it would be used and reused later, but, as you well know, settling the soldiers, proper division of the lots, and organization of the new military administration takes time. Theodoros I, in lacking legitimacy, may find it difficult to win over the key Armies of the Emperors' Presence, and there'll probably be some form of civil war, which will decrease the window available. I simply don't see him finishing up before the Arabs can breach the Taurus/Antitaurus system, eliminating a major geographical barrier, and pulling the exact same stunt they did in the Sassanid state in the Nahavand campaign. The loss of at least a major portion of Anatolia from this, in addition to the Slavic, Avar, and Bulgar settlements in the Balkans, will reduce the Empire to a rump state. Probably complicating this will be Theodoros' undoubted greater interest in Armenia than in the rest of the empire, and while he may hold onto fragments of the northern coast and Armenia longer, control over Africa and Italy will simply degrade further. He'll probably be unseated (or his son will if he dies too fast), and somebody'll carve out fun successor states in Italy and the Aigion. And then we get a nice breach for Muslim irruption into Europe, much earlier. Fun for the whole family.
das said:
Anyway, the Swiss. Am I the only one who thinks that the 14th-15th century demographic tensions they experienced (culminating in the rise of the Swiss mercenaries) are a bit similar to what happened with the Arabs in the 7th century or on a smaller scale with a lot of smaller ethnic groups in Iran, India and elsewhere over the ages (the Sikhs particularly come to mind)? Suppose the Habsburgs had somehow managed to prevail in Switzerland, squash the rebellions and establish their iron rule there for a time; suppose, then, that they held out until the early 15th century with the help of the Catholic Church, resulting in a rapidly growing, thoroughly embittered population. Then let's have an early 15th century heresy spread there; sure, there is nothing comparable with the University of Prague there, but I would think an extant moderate reformist movement could catch on in the cities, possibly indirectly connected with the Council of Basel. Then it could be politicised during the clashes with the bishops and the Habsburg governors, and radicalised Tabor-style in the forest cantons. If the movement gets a sufficiently charismatic leader, we could at least have another Hussite War equivalent, but with some luck and a truly superior overall leader, nearby confusion and socio-political instability could even be used to lay the foundations of the Swiss Empire, which ofcourse is the point of this exercise. If you have any better ideas as to how we could get there, by all means share.
What are we looking at here, a lack of a Morgarten or something of that nature? Overall the steps seem about right, though I'm going to confess that this really ain't my best period. Wouldn't the Habsburgs attempt to abolish the canton structure anyway, though, or at least end the cantons' status as reichsfrei? That could hamper Swiss organization in resistance later, although increasing the dissent in the short term. :dunno: Or was that taken as a given?

Would possession of the Swiss passes induce the Habsburgs to be more focused on the Italian direction perhaps?
 
Under what circumstances in RL could a Korean colonial empire have developed? I mean thinking about it it seems to make a lot of sense to me. So why didn't it happen?

It was called the Hermit Kingdom for very good reasons :p I would think an entire shift in the ruling philosophy would have to occur. It took plenty of lessons from China, which also had little impetus for actual colonization.

I'm no expert, but it seems the barriers are inherently structural and run pretty deep.
 
Under what circumstances in RL could a Korean colonial empire have developed? I mean thinking about it it seems to make a lot of sense to me. So why didn't it happen?

I think a large part of it never happening would be having China at their doorstep. That and the lack of a prolonged unified periods.
Chinese culture leaked onto the peninsula(mainly its lack of want for oversea adventure), and was the center of the world for them; everything came from there. Had China stayed as several states for a good part of the last millennium, constantly waring, and paying no mind to the small area, Korea might have develop more independently and searched the oceans for lands to seed their culture. Korea never needed to trade far either, Japan used them as one of their sole trading partners, and China extended thousands of miles south.
"A minnow among sharks," I believe the quote is. Korea wasn't really in a good political or cultural position to have a large oversea empire.
 
Just something I have been thinking of for awhile. Except for the few tinkered events, all historical events occur as they did. Of course, its not entirely detailed to the finest point, but I think its a good overall picture of what goes on.

* * *
PART ONE

‘Colonel’ Edward House ducked his head as he left the railroad car. He observed his Trenton surroundings, breathing a breath of fresh air - the train car, though first class, had still been stuffy.

He stood at the platform for a precious moment, eying the crowd and looking for his transportation. He had been told that he was going to be able to ride in a new automobile, and he had liked the idea; he had always been fascinated by these new machines.

The date was late in 1911. House had traveled far from his native Texas to New Jersey, but the cause was good: his ambitions led him here, for he was to speak with governor Woodrow Wilson, convince him to seek the presidential nomination, and have him elected to national office; in the process, he would achieve his own power behind the throne.

The automobile finally arrived, chugging slowly down the busy street. Lifting his bag, he walked to the street side and nodded as the driver opened the door. What an interesting ride this would be!

The automobile accelerated as it pulled into the street. The road was busy with traffic - both other automobiles and horse-drawn carts.

As they neared the Capitol, however, an automobile from the other side of the road veered uncontrollably in front of House’s vehicle. The driver attempted to avoid the collision, but in the process flipped his own car. House suffered major injuries and died on site, before medical personnel could reach him.

The death of this man would have serious ramifications in history. Woodrow Wilson, unaware of his political possibilities, or perhaps unable to launch a successful campaign without House, would be unable to seize more than a trickle of support in the coming primaries. Instead, Speaker of the House Champ Clark wins the ticket in a landslide in Baltimore in July 1912. His running mate is John Burke, governor of North Dakota.

Champ Clark was a major leader in the Democrat party. During the Taft administration, he successfully united the Democrats to oppose much of Taft’s ‘reform’ - he especially despised the notion of dollar diplomacy. His idea for international policies is more streamlined; he decided on a more passive approach to international politics, though he would keep a (limited) presence on the world stage. Of course, American influence in the western hemisphere would remain, much as it has since Teddy. His foreign policy would be dictated by William Jennings Bryan, his de facto Secretary of State, should he win the election.

He believed that, up to this time, the government had been mishandling its power concerning the economy. He believed in the idea that political and economic freedom needed to be obtained from the trusts, and would plan legislation accordingly. Finally, he also believed in social changes, most notably an amendment for Prohibition.

His victory in the election is guaranteed. Theodore Roosevelt, back from big game hunting in Africa, is furious at President Taft’s handling of the Gifford Pinchot debacle; also, Taft assaulted the trust US Steel, further enraging the former president, who considered Taft a traitor to his policies. Swashbuckling his way into the Republican party, Teddy declared that it would be him running for president. The Old Guard was not amused at the return of the Rough Rider, and immediately the Republican Party renominated Taft. Roosevelt and his cronies stormed out of the convention to join the minuscule Progressive Party. They’d form the Bull Moose party, destined to live for only 2 years.

Champ Clark won the election handily. He won 435 electoral votes, far surpassing Teddy’s 88. The splitting of the Republican party had given Clark the presidency on a golden platter.

James Beauchamp Clark was inaugurated as the 28th president of the United States on March 3rd, 1913.

Champ Clark immediately began a host of new policies concerning the economy and society. He pressed for stricter Anti-Trust reform, leading to the Clayton Anti-Trust Act; he proposed tariff adjustment, leading to the Underwood Tariff, which dropped tariff rates by almost 50%; and he pushed for an amendment to the Constitution for Prohibition. However, he was against a reform of the banking system outlined in the Federal Reserve Act, stating that it created too flexible a system for private bankers.

The civil war in Mexico drew American attention, especially as Bryan supported intervention against General Huerta, but Clark did not authorize strong military force against Mexico; rather, he simply stood for American economic and political investments in the nation, sending several US Warships to oversee evacuations and other duties. After the Tampico Affair, it is rumored that Clark apparently privately called Admiral Henry T. Mayo, responsible for the incident, a “bungling fool”. There would be no invasion of Mexico; there would be peace.

However, in July 1914, European affairs caught the attention of the president. The Great War between all the powers of Europe was declared, and Clark announced the United States to be completely neutral in this conflict. As the deadlock on the Western Front slowly disclosed itself, both Britain and Germany sought ways to outmaneuver the other. Britain initiated a naval blockade of German ports from the North Sea, while German wolfpacks hunted down British shipping across the Atlantic.

Both sides treated neutral American shipping without respect; Britain routinely commandeered American merchant vessels and stole the cargo, while German U-Boats ravaged trading ships.

Clark would have none of this. He and Bryan wrote messages to both nations, expressing their anger over these atrocities. Germany immediately apologized and disengaged from unrestricted submarine warfare; they agreed to sheath their weapon because they feared American intervention on the side of the Allies. The British, however, ignored American claims; the Allies could not hold out forever, and the British needed to starve the Germans out of the war.

William Randolph Hearst was flamboyantly outspoken over this issue. He routinely printed headlines bombastically defining the British as pirates and thieves, stealing American cargo and robbing American businesses. In fact, this statement was not far from the truth.

Furthermore, Clark was troubled by the bias of American businesses towards the Allies. The JP Morgan syndicate loaned over $2 billion to Great Britain alone, prompting Clark to contact Morgan about this behavior, though of course Morgan did not treat this formality with any apprehension. When Clark discovered a plot to load 5000 crates of small arms onto the passenger liner Lousitania, Clark immediately removed any contraband from the vessel and scolding those who wished to smuggle the goods to Britain. This action greatly pleased the German government, who promptly informed their U-Boat captains to spare the passenger ship.

From 1915-1917 the British continued this act of piracy. Their actions were defended, however, by American Ambassador Page, the US Minister to Britain. He was staunchly pro-Allies; he would even go as far as ignoring presidential orders criticizing Britain. Nevertheless, Clark was outraged when he discovered this behavior in 1916, and immediately had him removed from the position. There would be no games with Britain in this war.

Still, Clark believed it was necessary to remain out of the war, and his 1916 presidential campaign platform recognized this. The Republicans nominated Charles Evans Hughs as their candidate, who spoke about entering the war on the side of the Allies. Still, the public disregarded this idea almost completely, instead rallying to Clark for a second term.

The height of British atrocities was reached in the end of 1916, after the election had concluded. The British admiralty confirmed that they were redefining contraband to include almost all possible trade goods; also, they stated that any vessel, regardless of allegiance, will be searched and seized if thought appropriate (of course, an illegal notion).

The British made good on their proposal, seizing more American shipping than ever. An outraged Clark immediately contacted the British government in January 1917: disregard that statement, and let American shipping flow normally, or the American navy will be deployed to protect these merchants.

With the addition of the 1st Russian Revolution a month later, the British had little option but to annul this action. The only way Germany could be defeated, especially if Russia was knocked out of the war, was through starvation, and the French were on the verge of collapse as well, with Germany hardly “stopping to breathe”; yet, the British could not risk war with America.

The Germans, seizing the momentum of the British quandary, prepared peace talks with the Russians. If action on the Eastern Front ended, then German forces in the west could overrun the dwindling French reserves and storm Paris.

Unfortunately for the Allies, in the aftermath of the 2nd Russian Revolution, the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk was signed, ending the conflict in the east. Germany prepared a final push into France, hoping to seize Paris and end the war. Britain, having previously given American shipping some freedom, now had their hands tied behind their backs. France desperately called out to Britain for aide - the Germans were coming, and France could not hold out much longer.

As such, in December 1917, the British informed Clark that American merchants were no longer given freedom of the seas. Germany must be starved into submission; Britain had rolled the dice, hoping for a successful conclusion to the war.

The truth is, German food supplies were running short. However, through control of the radio systems and other communications, the German government kept the civilian sector informed that all was well; the German people had higher morale than ever. The British needed to impose some sort of poverty on Germany in order to end this war.

Hearst received a copy of this note, and it became widely publicized. Calling the British privateers and bandits, the American people joined the cry: War against Britain!

With a heavy heart, Clark ordered American ships to protect the merchant marine. He did not wish for war, but he understood that he needed to protect American lives and property. Britain had routinely disregarded American authority and had instead tried to force her own will upon them; the United States must act.

In 1918 the first American military vessels set out to escort those merchant vessels. The British were in more of a quandary then ever: what is to be done now? Do we still attempt to seize American shipping? Or can we not dare risk a war to do so?

Germany telegraphed the United States in February 1918 to offer any assistance necessary to protect American vessels. Clark politely refused the offer, insisting that no formal agreement existed between the two nations.

Luckily (or unluckily!) for Britain, they need not worry about a solution to the American problem. In March 1918, reinforced with more than 1 million soldiers from the east, the Germans struck:

The British 5th Army was the first to be attacked, and the whole unit was decimated by the attack, forced back after only 2 days of battle. This offensive convinced the Allies that it was necessary to assign one general as commander-in-chief of Allied forces in the West, and French Marshall Foch was assigned this role. Desperate to hold back the German assault, he reinforced the breach with the last French reserves remaining. The line was held, and the German attack ended.

But this is just what the Germans wanted. Lundendorff ordered German forces in a new attack, targeting Allied position further inland. The attack struck home, sending French forces reeling behind the Marne. The British mobilized their reserves to move south to defend Paris.

The Germans took advantage again; along the Channel German forces struck. The British were in complete disarray; they called upon French assistance, but Foch lamented that there were no French reserves, of any reasonable strength, left. The Germans took increasingly heavy casualties, but the German High Command realized that victory was within their grasp, and the offensive continued.

Troyes was targeted next, and breakthroughs along both the eastern and western defenses overwhelmed the French; the French 6th Army retreating from the city on 17 July. The entire sector was collapsing, and Foch informed the British that he estimated that Paris could hold out for, at most, one month. (The Allies were clearly missing the 2 million American soldiers that were arriving at this time).

The end came quickly. German morale skyrocketed, even with the huge casualties they had taken. The Germans had lost almost 600,000 men, but the Allies had lost even more: nearly 1 million men were casualties by this time, and there were few replacements for those men. The Germans swarmed Allied positions, first through Flanders, then along the Marne. Paris fell on July 30, 4 years since the beginning of the war.
 
Anyways, I am interested in the possible sucessful formation of a Mongol-Crusader State alliance. very plausible, and thus no seventh eigth or ninth crusade. This would have interesting consequences all across the land, including Louis IX possibly developing into the great king he should have been.

The main problem is that this alliance was all but concluded, and yet failed to lead to anything. The Mongols had already ran out of steam by then, and the Crusaders were more busy elsewhere too.

Perhaps if there was a new Crusade in the late 14th century...

Under what circumstances in RL could a Korean colonial empire have developed? I mean thinking about it it seems to make a lot of sense to me. So why didn't it happen?

It did happen. Korea did have a colonial empire - in Manchuria. It just ultimately broke away and then was conquered. As for an overseas colonial empire, it was simply not needed, and rather difficult to organise (though ofcourse with despotism everything is possible: just uproot peasants and throw them at whatever you want to colonise); but even if Korea was to, say, establish a colony in Japan, that colony would likewise have broken away after becoming self-sufficient. I doubt the Koreans would've bothered reconquering it, or would've succeeded in this in the long-term.

Indeed, self-sufficiency is the answer to your question. Most Asian nations did not really need to establish colonies (Pahoe in Manchuria and the Chinese forays into Central Asia are exceptions: the one resource both the Koreans and the Chinese really wanted was good steppe horses). Most colonies of Asian nations do not really need to remain loyal after they could survive without help from outside (and they could get to that stage quickly enough). Now just remember that Asian states are primarily overland, that the naval tradition is not very developed in all for lack of need, that maritime expeditions are perilous, expensive and unpopular and that for the same reason oversea communications will be easily disrupted.

Ofcourse, things did change over time, mainly in Japan, where not even the best efforts of the Tokugawa Shogunate could stop the growth of the cities and the emergence of a middle class. But Japan had already greatly diverged from the rest of Asia by then, and this was pretty late as well. Korea's starting conditions were entirely different, the state was too strong to fall into true classical feudalism and so to allow for the rise of free mercantile cities. Perhaps the trick is in overexpanding? Anyway, those cities would have had some superior commercial interests and would've at least tried to secure them by establishing colonies, possibly establishing an alliance with the central powers to this effect. I can't imagine what they would seize exactly, though. I suppose some fishers in the north? Furs? South-East Asia is too large and too full of competitors for a viable enterprise.

Had China stayed as several states for a good part of the last millennium, constantly waring, and paying no mind to the small area, Korea might have develop more independently and searched the oceans for lands to seed their culture.

No.

a) Chinese states expanded into Korea just fine without being unified, b) Chinese culture spread just fine during the Eastern Zhou dynasty and in fact its golden ages really often coincide with times of social and political strife, and c) just how do you see that last part actually happening, in ancient Korea or elsewhere? Why would anyone "search the oceans for lands to seed their own culture"? Who does that, anyway? I suppose you could bring up some examples, but they all failed to establish anything like a lasting colonial empire (partly because it was mostly proselytising - incidentally, usually ineffectual as well), so it's moot.

and somebody'll carve out fun successor states in Italy and the Aigion. And then we get a nice breach for Muslim irruption into Europe, much earlier. Fun for the whole family.

I suppose that's nice. The successor states in their majority probably won't survive for long, though; there are lots of predators just waiting for such a wonderful opportunity. The Lombards and the Bulgars come to mind, ofcourse. Could this lead to a more multipolar late Dark Age/early Medieval Europe?

Wouldn't the Habsburgs attempt to abolish the canton structure anyway, though, or at least end the cantons' status as reichsfrei?

Likely, but not inevitable; since they will keep control over it for several decades more, according to my plan, they will probably have time to experiment with different ways of governing the regions. The best case scenario would have them abolish the cantons not long before the rebellion; there will be bitterness, and the removed organisation could be replaced relatively easily by a military-religious one as instituted by the heresiarch (I'm currently thinking about something like an earlier and more competent version of Müntzer).

Would possession of the Swiss passes induce the Habsburgs to be more focused on the Italian direction perhaps?

That seems likely, and I am curious to see how involvement there might mess up the Councils and whatnot.
 
Das said:
Likely, but not inevitable; since they will keep control over it for several decades more, according to my plan, they will probably have time to experiment with different ways of governing the regions. The best case scenario would have them abolish the cantons not long before the rebellion; there will be bitterness, and the removed organisation could be replaced relatively easily by a military-religious one as instituted by the heresiarch (I'm currently thinking about something like an earlier and more competent version of Müntzer).

...centralization might have unintended benefits for a Swiss Empire.
 
Austrian centralisation won't outlast Austrian rule, but crushing regionalism and so spreading socio-political chaos will certainly help Urmuntzer's efforts.
 
das said:
Austrian centralisation won't outlast Austrian rule, but crushing regionalism and so spreading socio-political chaos will certainly help Urmuntzer's efforts.

Course it won't but it will allow everyone to focus on their hatred of Austria instead of fighting each other (although that's to an extent a given).
 
The main problem is that this alliance was all but concluded, and yet failed to lead to anything. The Mongols had already ran out of steam by then, and the Crusaders were more busy elsewhere too.

Perhaps if there was a new Crusade in the late 14th century...
I'm thinking no Ain Jalut, because the Acre states didn't allow the Moslems through, as they shouldn't have.
 
I suppose that's nice. The successor states in their majority probably won't survive for long, though; there are lots of predators just waiting for such a wonderful opportunity. The Lombards and the Bulgars come to mind, ofcourse.
I dunno about that. Italy and Africa after all had a good chance of becoming the new focus of the Empire in the last years of Konstas II's reign, when he decamped to Syrakousai. If another general pops on over to do the same with whatever's left after Theodoros' reign and later, I think it's a reasonable possibility to have a Norman Kingdom analog formed out of the southern portion of the Italian holdings, Sicily, and the African exarchate. Yennadios may even split off by himself when Theodoros takes the throne, sounds like something he might do (I think you speculated on this earlier in either this thread or the last one, haha), and be joined by Nikephoros Patrikios. They certainly have the revenue to handle themselves if a sufficient portion of the army from the east is salvaged, especially since Qayrawan hasn't been founded yet.

Lombards will definitely benefit from this nicely. Ravenna ain't going to hold out at all, so they'll be able to grab that. Possibly snag southern Italy from Yennadios (and Nikephoros?), though that's up in the air. Anything that gets carved out in the Aigion littoral won't last long to the Bulgars, Slavs, and Caliphate, though, you're right.
das said:
Could this lead to a more multipolar late Dark Age/early Medieval Europe?
You mean, with more accrued benefits for the Bulgars and Lombards? That would be more interesting. Hell, Visigothic Spain may even survive in some form or other, which would be cool, and even recover somewhat from the dynastic-conflict degeneration that they were spiraling into.
das said:
Likely, but not inevitable; since they will keep control over it for several decades more, according to my plan, they will probably have time to experiment with different ways of governing the regions. The best case scenario would have them abolish the cantons not long before the rebellion; there will be bitterness, and the removed organisation could be replaced relatively easily by a military-religious one as instituted by the heresiarch (I'm currently thinking about something like an earlier and more competent version of Müntzer).
Müntzer eh? A side of social revolution with the heretical entree? :p That does sound like fun. Can't think of any major holes off the top of my head.
das said:
That seems likely, and I am curious to see how involvement there might mess up the Councils and whatnot.
While this is venturing even further out of "stuff I know", what about an alliance with the Viscontis or something of that nature, to refocus the Habsburgs on a North Italian expansion program?
 
Secondary question: Giorgios Maniakes? (Or, a little later, Konstantinos Dalassenos.) Thoughts on either?
 
warning:rough draft

An Alternate Ain Jalut

In the landscape of time, of the great battles, many fall into two categories. Those that define a conquering power and those that stop them. In our history, Ain Jalut was one of the latter. It joined the likes of Marathon, the German ambush of the Romans at the Teutoberg Forest, Poitiers, and Waterloo. Though to a well-informed man in say, 1250’s Europe, might predict quite the opposite when told about the prospect of a battle at the scope of Ain Jalut between the Mongol Armies of the Ilkhanate and the Mamluk Dynasty of Egypt. And so the Mongol victory did appear relatively certain.
That was until two decisive things occurred. First, the Mongol Khan Mongke died, and in the traditional fashion the commander of the Mongol forces in the Levant (Hulagu, who was returning to press his claim to the throne himself). Left behind was a force on only one to two tumens (Mongol equivalency to a division comprising of 10,000 men) left under the command of a Christian named Kitbuqa. Secondly, the Christian crusader state of Jerusalem (now ironically with its capital at Acre) very uncharacteristically agreed to allow the Mamluk forces on their way to battle free passage through their lands, and what’s more allowed them foraging rights! The Mongols and other Christian states were quite surprised at this. This is where my slight tweak to the actual history comes in.
Instead of the Lord of Sidon ( a city in the kingdom of Jerusalem) accidentally killing Kitbuqa’s grandson in a side-conflict between the Mongols and Crusaders States, the grandson would have escaped from the minor conflict unscathed. Thusly, Kitbuqa would have never felt the need to sack the critical city of Sidon. Relationships between the Mongols and the Crusaders states thusly would have remained warm(ish). In this timeline the Kingdom of Jerusalem would never give their traditional enemies the Mamluks a chance to freely strike at the Mongols like this. So let’s say that the Mamluks decide to go through the Kingdom of Jerusalem anyways. Likely, they would have taken moderate casualties (17% sounds about right, and puts them at 25,000 men) and probably couldn’t have captured much. They also would have incited the Kingdom into war against them with the Mongols. I estimate they could field an army of 1000 knights and 10,000 men at arms, a total of 11,000(based off population estimates of 200,000 and a Frankish population of around 75,000) .
When the Mamluks then would have faced down with the Mongols, they would have found a coalition force. 20,000 Mongols, commanded by Kitbuqa and 11,000 Franks would be pitted in battle against a 25,000 man Mamluk force. I think everyone knows the result now is obvious. It was a very closely contested battle anyway, and even with the brilliant generalship of Baibars, I believe the Mamluks would have been crushed. In the retreat, Qutuz likely still would have been assassinated by Baibars, but he would have taken up a much weaker position in Egypt. I believe this would result in a much stronger position for the Crusader States, and the Ilkhanate would have been free to crush the Islamic Golden Horde. Ain Jalut would have taken it’s name with the likes now of Chaeronea, Adrianople, Manzikert, and Hastings.

Consequences ~ Reestablishment of a strong Kingdom of Jerusalem, massive cataclysmic war between the Ilkhanate and the Golden Horde, eventual earlier total collapse of the Mamluk Dynasty upon the death of Baibars, and a long lasting Franco-Mongol alliance.
 
I still think you are seriously overestimating the amount of men the Crusaders could have brought into battle (even a ridiculously militarized state couldn't hope to support 1,000 knights with a population of 75,000 -- 1 in 75 men being a knight? Just one knight required multiple men at arms anyway... Now that I look back on it, I'm pretty sure the Crusader States would have been able to field less than 500 knights, max, and that's leaving everything else defenseless), and the impact on the overall result of the war. Moreover, your other premises are suspect as well: 17% is a moderate casualty rate? A barely 6:5 advantage in numbers is enough to "crush" the Mamelukes? No.
 
I still think you are seriously overestimating the amount of men the Crusaders could have brought into battle (even a ridiculously militarized state couldn't hope to support 1,000 knights with a population of 75,000 -- 1 in 75 men being a knight? Just one knight required multiple men at arms anyway... Now that I look back on it, I'm pretty sure the Crusader States would have been able to field less than 500 knights, max, and that's leaving everything else defenseless), and the impact on the overall result of the war. Moreover, your other premises are suspect as well: 17% is a moderate casualty rate? A barely 6:5 advantage in numbers is enough to "crush" the Mamelukes? No.

75,000 would be the Frankish population, the military class. There were several monarchs that pledged to permenatly leave of force of around a hundred knights in Outremer. And I say 17% because that's about what a medieval force could expect moving through highly hostile territory and desertion etc. Are you not familiar with the battle of Ain Jalut? The Mongols were down 2:3 but it was a remarkably close-run thing :p. They had the best warriors in the world. It would have been perfectly reasonable to have them win anyways. Then give them another 10,000 men and reduce the size of the Mamluk force? Easy victory.

All the interesting Crusader State PoD's are really pre-Third Crusade. Like, for example, the Second Crusade actually doing its' job and attempting to recapture Edessa, rather than violating the peace with Damascus.

This a misconception. For example, what if the Fifth Crusade's ultimate outcome was endorsed by either side? Or Louis IX doesn't die in Tunisia, and manages to coordinate his attacks with the Mongols? Plenty of really good stuff out there.
 
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