Because We Have a Problem: 2016 Forcasting List

[dutchfire]

This is what prevented a President Humphrey, although he nearly overcame his party split like Truman did. From WW2 to 2008, we had more years of Republican control of the White House than Democratic, and the civil rights issue was a key factor in the breakdown of the New Deal Coalition. We may be observing another shift of the same magnitude, just with the opposite party taking the losses.

If a third-party takes 10% of the R vote nationally (vs. 2012 results), Ds win Georgia, Missouri, North Carolina and are competitive in Mississippi, Arizona, Alaska, Montana, Indiana and South Carolina. I don't see why any conservative would want such a result. The proposed 'hung election' seems unlikely.

 

[madviking]

politics politics politics politics politics politics politics politics politics politics politics politics politics politics politics politics politics politics politics politics politics politics politics politics politics politics politics politics politics politics politics politics politics politics politics politics politics politics politics politics politics politics politics politics politics politics politics politics politics politics politics politics

 

[Joecoolyo]

I agree with Downtown.

 

[Cutlass]

I'd say the media shift has really changed things to a large degree. Portrayal of gays on television has shifted from objectifying stereotype (the token gay on Survivor-type shows, Queer-eye, and Will and Grace) to more type a.1.

Shows like Glee and Project Runway, the portrayal of homosexuality in many sitcoms, the prominent, openly-out nature of many homosexual actors/tresses (Ellen, Day-Lewis, Penn, and the coming out of Jodie Foster this year) has really promoted the idea of gays not as bizarre aliens existing in a counter culture, but as normal, everyday people whose romantic interests are of same sex rather than opposite. I think in particular the portrayal of characters like Kurt and Blaine in Glee is a good example of this. There's a lot less "coded gay" on television and more "outed gay". Moreover Television is a lot more neutral in their portrayal of gays these days whereas in decades past they were shown either in a negative light or in such a bizarre, stereotyped manner that they are almost alienating.

It's called the Will & Grace Effect.

 

[Antilogic]

While I have no idea whether or not Christie can put together an effective organization, as far as being not-hardcore conservative enough:
Well, I think a lot of the problem with the Republicans in the last cycle was that they hated Obama so much and perceived him to be so hard left that their immediate reaction was to go hard right and could never be fully comfortable with someone less hardcore than their ideal.

I think that with Obama out of the picture (and with the massive shift wrt SSM going on) that they won't be nearly as idealogically pure in 2016 as they were in 2012. Plus, Christie really isn't that moderate, he's a rightie's rightie alright but he comes across as more moderate than he is because he isn't an assclown and gives credit where it's due (Obama's handling of that Hurricane, for example).

I have nothing to back any of that up though, it's all a hunch.

I wonder if the realignment has anything to do with the parties themselves though? The Dems haven't moved drastically to the left (IMHO) while the Republicans and the teahadists have pulled sharply right. Independents who haven't shifted themselves are left facing a choice between a basically stationary Dem party and a radical Rep party, and they drift toward the lesser of two evils. Those that are left claiming 'independent' are really just teahadists who don't the Republican party hates the gays and taxes enough as is.

Again, nothing to back that up.

The Dems haven't moved much to the left (and arguably, they have moved a little more to the right on issues like healthcare--I've made allegations along those lines several times on this forum). However, they are largely occupying the space left behind by the Republicans, which have been driven far further to the right by reactionary elements of their party.

So in short, I'm agreeing with you on the independents. As for Christie and the Republicans, I'm certain whoever the Democratic front-runners are, they will be accused of being the most socialist and left-leaning candidate to ever run for the presidency since the last most socialist and left candidate ever to run for the presidency.

If a third-party takes 10% of the R vote nationally (vs. 2012 results), Ds win Georgia, Missouri, North Carolina and are competitive in Mississippi, Arizona, Alaska, Montana, Indiana and South Carolina. I don't see why any conservative would want such a result. The proposed 'hung election' seems unlikely.

Oh, definitely--usually third-party runs sweep the least-affected major party into office. The strategy I outlined (throwing the election to the House) has occurred only once in US history (it was a Jackson-Adams contest back in the early 19th century, and the circumstances were quite different that led to this outcome). However, if you read about Thurmond, Byrd, and George Wallace, this is the strategy the bolters were pursuing. Despite it's limited success and many failures, it inexplicably draws attention and appeal for the bolting types.

 

[ace99]

I really think you are all overstating the death and/or problems of the Republican party. This is not their final song.


Link to video.

 

[Joecoolyo]

Well yeah, they'd choose a better one than that

 

[GhostWriter16]

To see a Libertarian candidate force the GOP to lose every time from now until the day I die would be a dream come true, even if it did mean the Democrats winning. The GOP establishment deserves punishment at this point. Rand Paul or no one at all

 

[ace99]

Well yeah, they'd choose a better one than that

Those are fighting words son.

 

[Antilogic]

I really think you are all overstating the death and/or problems of the Republican party. This is not their final song.

Oh, I don't think they are dead. I just think the prior advantages they have enjoyed in the electoral college have turned into disadvantages.

 

[ace99]

Oh, I don't think they are dead. I just think the prior advantages they have enjoyed in the electoral college have turned into disadvantages.

This is again, I think, unfortunately overstated, the GOP controls 30 governorships + a significant # of state houses, while it is true their national brand has declined in popularity in value the appeal of their local messages, remains significant and powerful. Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and New Mexico should all give the Democrats pause. The GOP has either taken power in the governorship or the statehouse. There is something to be concerned about here. Unions are broken and who knows what will replace them. They dictated the redistributing this year. Who's to say in another 10 years it won't be the same? I know we progressives like to think history is on our side but...well you know..it doesn't play out like that.

Edit: Sorry for the triple post

 

[Antilogic]

This is again, I think, unfortunately overstated, the GOP controls 30 governorships + a significant # of state houses, while it is true their national brand has declined in popularity in value the appeal of their local messages, remains significant and powerful. Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and New Mexico should all give the Democrats pause. The GOP has either taken power in the governorship or the statehouse. There is something to be concerned about here. They dictated the redistributing this year. Who's to say in another 10 years it won't be the same? I know we progressives like to think history is on our side but...well you know..it doesn't play out like that.

Edit: Sorry for the triple post

Might be a quad-post here, but:

Many of those governorships flipped in the Republican wave of 2010-2011. Additionally, holding a handful of plains states governorships sounds large on paper but translates to a smaller fraction of the American populace. The key governorships to watch are Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida. We'll see whether or not they will hold through 2014-2016.

And no matter how many state houses they hold, they cannot nominate Supreme Court justices without the presidency, and that arguably is the longest-lasting effect of holding the presidency in modern times.

 

[ace99]

Might be a quad-post here, but:

Many of those governorships flipped in the Republican wave of 2010-2011. Additionally, holding a handful of plains states governorships sounds large on paper but translates to a smaller fraction of the American populace. The key governorships to watch are Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida. We'll see whether or not they will hold through 2014-2016.

And no matter how many state houses they hold, they cannot nominate Supreme Court justices without the presidency, and that arguably is the longest-lasting effect of holding the presidency in modern times.

I think you and many progressives are underestimating just how much resonance the GOP has on the small down local level. When it comes down to it, on the small level often it is not the federal government which is closest to the individual. While you might be getting unemployment benefit or Social Security it is often the church and the community which has the greatest day to day interaction with your life. I can also tell you of many liberal-liberals who are in fact voting for GOP candidates because they believe that those candidates will lower property taxes and such. For instance take Gov. Christie, you would not believe how many of my GAY LIBERAL friends intend to vote for the man. He has a powerful personality and a powerful message that minds resonance among the middle class masses which I fear will undo the Democratic Party unless they manage to counteract it.

I think it would be too little to say that the GOP govs took power in a wave. It was something more than that. I believe it was a backlash against the corrupt, complacent Democratic machines that exist in some of these states. Unless these machines are broken, I fear the Midwest and MidAtlantic might be lost even if Democrats make gains in the South.

Gays and abortion are not enough. The Democratic economic message that was so powerful from the 40's to the 70's must be resurrected.

Edit: Sorry for my schizophrenia and quintuple post.

 

[Antilogic]

I'm just happy my other half mentioned "and many progressives" because I would hope that I wasn't considered a mainstream Democrat. It would be news to me.

 

[ace99]

You know how it is brah.

Edit: Sorry for six or seven posts in a row. My mental disorder is really going haywire today.

 

[Birdjaguar]

Edit: Sorry for my schizophrenia and quintuple post.

Edit: Sorry for six or seven posts in a row. My mental disorder is really going haywire today.

I almost merged them too....

 

[ace99]

I almost merged them too....

That would have been epic.

 

[sophie]

It's called the Will & Grace Effect.

Even beyond Will and Grace though. I don't think it's anywhere near as common to see characters like Jack on television anymore.

 

[timtofly]

Even beyond Will and Grace though. I don't think it's anywhere near as common to see characters like Jack on television anymore.

Perhaps reverse psychology? It was overplayed, but I doubt they were poking fun at the concept. In real life (those that I have met) gays and lesbians are down to earth and enjoyable.

 

[Antilogic]

I almost merged them too....

That would have been epic.

Probably would have resulted in the best schizophrenic PDMA ever.