Because We Have a Problem: 2016 Forcasting List

[mangxema]

The key governorships to watch are Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida. We'll see whether or not they will hold through 2014-2016.

Florida's looking pretty brutal:

Florida Gov. Rick Scott is rumored to be planning to spend as much as $100 million to get re-elected next year. According to PPP’s latest poll, which finds him trailing three possible Democratic challengers, he’s going to need all the help he can get.

In four hypothetical match-ups, Scott trails Charlie Crist by 12 points (40/52), Pam Iorio by 7 points (37/44), Alex Sink by 5 points (40/45) and leads Nan Rich by 6 points (42/36). Crist takes a whopping 29% of the Republican vote against Scott, exactly in line with PPP’s January poll of the Florida governor’s race.

Scott’s abysmal -24 job approval rating (33/57) is also exactly in line with the results from PPP’s January poll. Scott barely has the approval of his own party—Republicans approve of his job performance by a slim 46/42 margin. 52% of Democrats, 44% of independents and 18% of Republicans think Scott is too conservative.

 

[Antilogic]

Yeah, Gov. Scott, much like the Midwestern governors, might have overplayed his hand. The states I listed all have their gubernatorial elections in off-presidential years, and the excitement on the Republican side for the 2010 Congressional elections provided a lot of coattails for the down-ballot candidates to ride. It's too early to tell whether or not 2014 will be a similar environment, but I wouldn't bet on another historic sweep of seats like we just had.

Plus, the local issues in these states are starting to turn against Republicans rather than for them. Or, maybe it would be better to say there is a much more riled up Democratic base over local issues than there was in 2010.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

There won't be any Moa Moa insurgency to take over healthcare in 2014 like ther was in 2010 so there will be fewer issues for the billionaires to astroturf and pump up the republican base (and the finalization of Obamacare and the benefits it bestows may further help dems).

Then again, no one expects the Teahadist inquisition.

 

[Antilogic]

To win in the traditionally blue states that are electing Republican governors, the Republicans also need the northeastern moderate wing of their party to be healthy, and it hasn't been getting a lot of love lately.

 

[ace99]

To win in the traditionally blue states that are electing Republican governors, the Republicans also need the northeastern moderate wing of their party to be healthy, and it hasn't been getting a lot of love lately.

Edit: Doh! Double post/

 

[Azale]

Thanks for reminding me how bad political cartoons are. Yeesh.

So, articles out saying Hillary Clinton is one of the largest frontrunners OF OUR TIME. Opinions?

 

[_random_]

Many of those governorships flipped in the Republican wave of 2010-2011. Additionally, holding a handful of plains states governorships sounds large on paper but translates to a smaller fraction of the American populace. The key governorships to watch are Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida. We'll see whether or not they will hold through 2014-2016.

Any of my Brohioans know much about potential gubernatorial candidates here?

 

[downtown]

Any of my Brohioans know much about potential gubernatorial candidates here?

Pretty short bench, since Strickland, Cordray and Coleman (thats the former Gov, former AG and mayor of Columbus) all want nothing to do with the race. I think the most likely Dems are Ed Fitzgerald, an executive in Cuyahoga County, and US Rep Tim Ryan (although he might have backed out).

Kasich's standing has improved a lot, but it's entirely possible that Ryan could beat him. Fitz would need a lot of money and a lot of work getting his name outside of Cleveland to win.

 

[ace99]

SO New Jersey, Chris Christie a shoe in or what? Damn NJ Democrats. At least make it look like a fight.

 

[downtown]

Christie is a total shoe in. He might be able to win the NJ Dem nomination if he actually tried haha.

Florida is probably the best chance for the Dems to grab a Gov spot, although Wisconsin and Michigan also look winnable *right now*.

 

[_random_]

Pretty short bench, since Strickland, Cordray and Coleman (thats the former Gov, former AG and mayor of Columbus) all want nothing to do with the race. I think the most likely Dems are Ed Fitzgerald, an executive in Cuyahoga County, and US Rep Tim Ryan (although he might have backed out).

Kasich's standing has improved a lot, but it's entirely possible that Ryan could beat him. Fitz would need a lot of money and a lot of work getting his name outside of Cleveland to win.

Googling him, Fitzgerald seems like a pretty decent guy, although there's not a ton of information availible. Maybe I'll do some volunteer work for him, try to spread the word near the river. Although I'll likely be living in Tennessee by the time the campaign gets really heated.

Whoa, if I live in Tennessee, I won't be considered a prime demographic for political ads. What's that like?

 

[Antilogic]

Thanks for reminding me how bad political cartoons are. Yeesh.

So, articles out saying Hillary Clinton is one of the largest frontrunners OF OUR TIME. Opinions?

I'm more bullish on Biden running than H. Clinton, but I know I'm in the minority with this opinion. I think Biden has been setting himself up with high-profile legislative work, and based on statements he has made (you can vote for me in 2016!), I don't think it's arguable that he doesn't have an interest in the presidency. That, and if someone should assassinate Obama, I think Biden would run for another term.

I think Hillary Clinton's medical issue would be her largest obstacle--she's insanely popular with the Democratic base, no question. Although historically the frontrunners at this point don't win the Democratic nomination (Nate Silver had a good article on this a week or two back), Hillary is so well-positioned she could upset that trend. If she isn't in the hospital.

That being said, I wouldn't be surprised if one of the other "minor" Democratic candidates ends up being the nominee (even if either Clinton or Biden runs)--for as much fuss as is made about the Democrats having a short bench, they still have guys like O'Malley, Warner, Booker, Schweitzer, or any of the New York crew. Or some new senator we haven't heard of yet who wins his or her seat in 2014.

SO New Jersey, Chris Christie a shoe in or what? Damn NJ Democrats. At least make it look like a fight.

Since Booker decided not to run, they have some local politician I haven't heard of before running. Don't know her odds, but I'd guess slim at best.

Christie is a total shoe in. He might be able to win the NJ Dem nomination if he actually tried haha.

Florida is probably the best chance for the Dems to grab a Gov spot, although Wisconsin and Michigan also look winnable *right now*.

Yeah, this is probably right. Ohio and New Jersey will be tough nuts for the Democrats to crack. I'm not too familiar with Pennsylvania, but I'd guess it's between those two and Florida/Wisconsin/Michigan in terms of ease of pickup.

Especially in Wisconsin and Michigan, the local city management and union issues are going to drive turnout. If the Dems can keep the base riled up over these, they have a good shot of winning them.

 

[Azale]

Honestly, I would be happy with anyone but Cuomo.

 

[_random_]

What's your beef with him?

 

[Azale]

What's your beef with him?

I feel like I've posted that twice in this thread. I hope I havnt


Link to video.


Link to video.

He's a cynical, slimy, politican's politican. He doesn't get it, he's not what the country needs. He pretends to be "bipartisan" and other vacuous things to boost his own reputation, to the detriment of actual important legislation he could have helped along just by doing his damn job as leader of the Dem. party in NY.

 

[_random_]

Interesting. I suppose I'll probably learn more about him come the election, but that does make me pretty apprehensive.

 

[downtown]

he could have helped along just by doing his damn job as leader of the Dem. party in NY.

He's not the leader of the Dem party in NY though. He's the Governor of the entire state?

 

[Antilogic]

I figure the analogy to the national level is that the president is often seen as the leader of his party, or at least one of its leaders.

 

[Azale]

He's not the leader of the Dem party in NY though. He's the Governor of the entire state?

He's definitely not some apolitical bipartisan Supreme Leader. He is the most visible and powerful Democrat politician in his state, on top of being the governor. He has the ability, legally and politically it would seem, to enact his and his party's policy agenda and he chooses not to. Why?

I mean, when Cuomo heard these criticisms all he could say was, "dur hur lets be bipartisan." Not the kind of bipartisan that cherrypicks the best ideas from both sides as some kind of guiding ideology, but the vacuous kind that gets you elected. I don't trust Cuomo.

 

[Antilogic]

The more I think about it, the stronger chance I think O'Malley has. His speaking skills are good enough, he has executive experience, excellent fundraising and campaigning skills, no cluster-effs like in New York (where Clinton, Cuomo, and others would all draw from the same local sources), he doesn't have a potentially controversial voting record in the Senate (which, with the Senate's low approval ratings and stuff like the sequester, healthcare, unpopular deficit reduction measures, etc., is a huge boost), he hasn't done anything outrageously bad as Mayor or as Governor, and he successfully held his seat in the 2010 Republican wave (I'm always skeptical of one-termers--that could be luck, whereas winning multiple statewide elections means you have skill).

If not Biden or Clinton, I think O'Malley is a really strong bet.