Brexit Thread V - The Final Countdown?!?

[Arakhor]

Would may have a majority if all dup and erg mps vote for her plan - is what it somewhat obviously means.

If every Tory and DUP MP were present and voted for her deal, then yes, because that's rather the point of a majority. They absolutely won't vote en masse, of course, even if some do "break ranks" to do so.

In side news, apparently Michael Gove has been breaking up the febrile atmosphere in the House of Commons by offering people Polos.

 

[Silurian]

Would may have a majority if all dup and erg mps vote for her plan - is what it somewhat obviously means.

It was not clear to me!

It would most likely pass if they voted for it. The ERG gives cover for remain supporters to vote against the May deal, which when it is defeated by the "ERG" allows them to vote for remain to stop no-deal.

Rich man 's ukip.

Like the Billionaire backers of Brexit

 

[Lexicus]

It was not clear to me!

Nor me either.

 

[Arakhor]

The DUP claim that "sufficient progress" has not been achieved on the backstop, but then we all knew that they were going to vote against it anyway. Can we get our billion pounds back?

 

[Kyriakos]

If every Tory and DUP MP were present and voted for her deal, then yes, because that's rather the point of a majority.

That is a bit obtuse; obviously the few known/public anti-brexit tories are neither in the dup nor in the erg. The question was if may would be able to pass her deal by (theoretically) convincing all dup and erg mps to back it.

 

[Arakhor]

Latest news from the Commons: Conservative Brexiteer Andrea Jenkyns says the UK should leave the EU "without a bad deal". She says the UK needs to look "beyond the borders of the EU" and the country is "giving too many concessions". "We need to send a strong message to the EU that Britain deserves better".

Well, yes, I think we certainly deserve better MPs, if nothing else.

That is a bit obtuse; obviously the few anti-brexit tories are neither in the dup nor in the erg. The question was if may would be able to pass her deal by (theoretically) convincing all dup and erg mps to back it.

If the number of Lexiter MPs outnumbered the number of die-hard Remainers present in the House, then yes. What more do you want?

 

[AmazonQueen]

There was a piece in the Guardian today by Kevin Rudd.
He didn't reckon much to the UKs chances looking beyond the borders of the EU.
https://www.theguardian.com/comment...save-brexit-britain-utter-delusion-kevin-rudd

 

[Hrothbern]

There was a piece in the Guardian today by Kevin Rudd.
He didn't reckon much to the UKs chances looking beyond the borders of the EU.
https://www.theguardian.com/comment...save-brexit-britain-utter-delusion-kevin-rudd

yes
Also describing how difficult it is to get past the trading protection of India.
EDIT + the amount of small bribes needed. Proximity and understanding how much money the bribes will cost the local flavor and expertise.

There will for sure be people that believe really in this global trade generating enough volume.
Just imagine all those 200,000 companies (the amount that trade now with the EU) in the UK re-routing to intercontinental trade.... that means building up new customers,,, needing an army of selling people with high expenses going global, needing long jet-lag flights.
Only the big companies, already internationally active can do that.
Tough luck for the small companies.

 

[Arakhor]

Some 25 Tories are announced that they will vote for the Government this time, unlike in January, whilst others are reportedly abstaining on the vote. This isn't as if this is a super-important vote that could very well determine the course of UK politics for years to come... What exactly do they get paid for, again?

 

[Silurian]

May has lost

YES: 242 NO: 391

 

[Lexicus]

May has lost

So, roll a six sided die. If the result is 1 or 2, deadline extension. If the result is 3 or 4, no-deal Brexit. If the result is 5 or 6, Brexit is cancelled.

 

[brennan]

"...second crushing defeat", lol.

Whisper it: "strong and stable"

With a 149 vote defeat tonight she has the worst and third worst Commons defeats out of all UK PMs.

 

[Arakhor]

Hey, at least the defeat didn't worsen - how humiliating would it be to notch up both of the greatest defeats of a sitting government in political history?

That said, I think the vote whether to proceed to a no-deal Brexit or not will be even more packed in the No lobby.

 

[Silurian]

So, roll a six sided die. If the result is 1 or 2, deadline extension. If the result is 3 or 4, no-deal Brexit. If the result is 5 or 6, Brexit is cancelled.

The deadline extension requires new legislation to be passed which would seem difficult to do by the 29th.

It will be easier to get the EU to agree.

 

[Arakhor]

So, how long before either Parliament orders her to revoke Article 50 or the whole stinking edifice that is this joke of a government collapses in a foetid mass around her ankles?

 

[Silurian]

So, how long before either Parliament orders her to revoke Article 50 or the whole stinking edifice that is this joke of a government collapses in a foetid mass around her ankles?

That requires new legislation to be passed as well which would also be difficult.

There is going to be tears before bedtime.

 

[brennan]

I guess our feet-dragging legislature will need to vote down no deal explicitly before they will be honest enough to admit that it has to be revokation of article 50. They want to maintain the fiction (which nobody will believe and nor should they) they they gave it a reasonable shot. Everybody knows that Brexit was overwhelmingly unpopular in the HoC.

 

[Lexicus]

I feel like revoking Article 50 is the likeliest outcome but I have no idea whether that feeling is accurate.

If Brexit does end up being cancelled, what are the potential consequences? Will there be massive defections from the Tories to UKIP? From what I've seen of the Brexiteers on this forum it doesn't seem like they are going to admit the whole thing was a bad idea.

 

[Cheetah]

It will be easier to get the EU to agree.

Well...

Immediate response from Donald Tusk’s spokesman:

“We regret the outcome of tonight's vote and are disappointed that the UK government has been unable to ensure a majority for the Withdrawal Agreement agreed by both parties in November.”

“On EU side we have done all that is possible to reach an agreement. Given the additional assurances provided by the EU in December, January and yesterday, it is difficult to see what more we can do. If there is a solution to the current impasse it can only be found in London”

“The EU for its part continues to stand by the Withdrawal Agreement, including the backstop, which serves to prevent a hard border in Ireland and preserve the integrity of the single market unless and until alternative arrangements can be found.”

“With only 17 days left to 29 March, today's vote has significantly increased the likelihood of a 'no-deal' Brexit. We will continue our no-deal preparations and ensure that we will be ready if such a scenario arises.”

“Should there be a UK reasoned request for an extension, the EU27 will consider it and decide by unanimity. The EU27 will expect a credible justification for a possible extension and its duration. The smooth functioning of the EU institutions will need to be ensured.”

 

[Silurian]

Only three Labour MPs voted for May's deal.

I can not see how she can kick the can again.


Added

@Cheetah Only thing I can see is referendum, otherwise it is just more can kicking.
May said today that the EU was being helpful.