Brexit Thread V - The Final Countdown?!?

[Cheetah]

If Brexit does end up being cancelled, what are the potential consequences?

Half the next EU Parliament being demagogues trying to tear the EU apart and reintroducing fascism, I fear.

 

[Lexicus]

Half the next EU Parliament being demagogues trying to tear the EU apart and reintroducing fascism, I fear.

You're envisioning a significant contribution being made to this bloc from the UK I take it?

 

[Arakhor]

There'll be a free vote on a no-deal Brexit tomorrow. That'll be interesting to see who really doesn't have the country's best interests at heart.

Naturally, despite spending two years saying that no deal is better than a bad deal, the PM will be voting against a no-deal Brexit.

 

[Cheetah]

You're envisioning a significant contribution being made to this bloc from the UK I take it?

From the UK, and from all the other demagogues who can now scream «See! The EU will never let anyone leave! It's a Brussels tyranny intent on destroying the nationstates!»

 

[Hrothbern]

I guess our feet-dragging legislature will need to vote down no deal explicitly

I guess we will see amendments tomorrow nailing that down
no no-deal is no no-deal

 

[adcarrymaokai]

Are Brits OK?

Not gonna lie, this Brexit hoopla makes me feel better about the US, knowing we aren't the only ones who got clowned in 2016.

 

[Arakhor]

From the UK, and from all the other demagogues who can now scream «See! The EU will never let anyone leave! It's a Brussels tyranny intent on destroying the nationstates!»

Said demagogues would find something else to scream about, as the PM has found to her cost over throughout this process.

 

[Lexicus]

From the UK, and from all the other demagogues who can now scream «See! The EU will never let anyone leave! It's a Brussels tyranny intent on destroying the nationstates!»

I see. I am worried about worse things than this, personally. If Brexit is cancelled in the UK then I expect anti-EU people across the continent to figure that they really can't trust any of the mainstream parties. I think you can guess what comes next.

 

[AmazonQueen]

I see. I am worried about worse things than this, personally. If Brexit is cancelled in the UK then I expect anti-EU people across the continent to figure that they really can't trust any of the mainstream parties. I think you can guess what comes next.

In 1 way Brexit would be beneficial. It would show everyone how little the rightwing demagogues can be trusted, but its a price I'd rather not pay.

 

[Cheetah]

I see. I am worried about worse things than this, personally. If Brexit is cancelled in the UK then I expect anti-EU people across the continent to figure that they really can't trust any of the mainstream parties. I think you can guess what comes next.

Oh, yes. That's another way of looking at the same rolling disaster...

In 1 way Brexit would be beneficial. It would show everyone how little the rightwing demagogues can be trusted, but its a price I'd rather not pay.

Yeah... I feel really bad for being willing to sacrifice you, Arakhor, and the others for the chance that it will help politics in the rest of Europe...

 

[Traitorfish]

Wrong end of the stick - though I'm sure some nationalists voted leave for mischief.

(artist's impression)

 

[really]

Yeah... I feel really bad for being willing to sacrifice you, Arakhor, and the others for the chance that it will help politics in the rest of Europe...

If you can't be a good example you might as well be a horrible warning.

 

[Lexicus]

In 1 way Brexit would be beneficial. It would show everyone how little the rightwing demagogues can be trusted, but its a price I'd rather not pay.

Oh, yes. That's another way of looking at the same rolling disaster...

Well I'm specifically worried about the effects within the politics of each country. As much as Brussels is blamed for this, that, and blah blah blah it's still the national governments holding all the cards. I read most of this Reclaiming the State book, it's by leftist Euroskeptics, and one of the (imo) most perceptive points they've made is that the EU represents a form of problem-avoidance for national politicians. It gives them cover for pushing policies that are unpopular and might be politically impossible, except that these politicians can point to the EU and say "we must do this: there is no alternative."

It's interesting because now we are seeing something that in many ways is the mirror image of that: the rise of these anti-EU parties who are gaining political capital by blaming the EU for anything wrong, even as they have no clear plan for governing generally or specifically improving any of the problems they (sometimes accurately) identify.

OTOH I was, and still am to an extent, worried that if Brexit actually happened, it would be the most strident Remain voices who were subsequenetly discredited as I believed (and still believe) that the sky-falling scenario as a result of Brexit relies on economic theories which are wrong, and moreover wrong in specific ways that would lead to overstating the benefits of EU membership while overstating the damage of exiting the EU.
While I disagree with Remainers on many issues it does seem that in Britain it is mostly the center-left that are the strongest supporters of Remain, and I would prefer not to see them discredited obviously.

 

[Hrothbern]

The UK would be the perfect test case to find out what the economical benefits of a Single Market Union are for a big developed country.
Greece or Italy would be bad examples. African countries moving towards closer relations also no good examples.
But believing that the damage is too big for the UK I will be quite happy when a hard Brexit is avoided.

 

[Oerdin]

Parliament doesn't agree and Brexiters have been historically very happy to trumpet about the essential nature of Parliamentary sovereignty.

Parliament does agree and just overwhelmingly voted to reject the garbage the EU was selling, thank god. Anything with any backstop of any kind must always be rejected out of hand. Period.

No deal will turn out just fine over the medium to long term. Reject the lies of project fear and actually regain sovereignty as the people democratically demanded.

 

[Takhisis]

China isnt hated here, is all. And lets not pretend that several eu countries dont do deals with terrible regimes. Remember turkey?

Whataboutism is not a valid logical argument but an appeal to emotion.

Rich man 's ukip.

It's not as if UKIP ever was for, by nor of the common unmoneyed people.

Anything with any backstop of any kind must always be rejected out of hand. Period.

I doubt whether anybody except 2-3 people in this thread will ever understand the point, but I think that Sinn Féin should just rename itself Sibh Péin.

 

[Oerdin]

Half the next EU Parliament being demagogues trying to tear the EU apart and reintroducing fascism, I fear.

There will be no mythical "fascism" but the EU is a evil, horrible organization right down to its very bones and the sooner that cancer is removed the better.

 

[Takhisis]

(1)There will be no mythical "fascism" but (2) the EU is a evil, horrible organization right down to its very bones and (3)the sooner that cancer is removed the better.

Please provide valid information sources and logically sound reasoning backing at least one of the three claims you've just made. I've even numbered them for your convenience.

 

[Cheetah]

the EU represents a form of problem-avoidance for national politicians. It gives them cover for pushing policies that are unpopular and might be politically impossible, except that these politicians can point to the EU and say "we must do this: there is no alternative."

Perfectly true, and a glaring problem that everyone who supports the EU is aware of. The only effective remedy would be a much larger EU PR-office however, and that would instantly be branded a «ministry of propaganda»...

OTOH I was, and still am to an extent, worried that if Brexit actually happened, it would be the most strident Remain voices who were subsequenetly discredited as I believed (and still believe) that the sky-falling scenario as a result of Brexit relies on economic theories which are wrong, and moreover wrong in specific ways that would lead to overstating the benefits of EU membership while overstating the damage of exiting the EU.

Here I disagree with you from the completely opposite point of view:

If the damage is much less than what I and others expect, and the benefits of EU membership is overstated, then I am wrong in many of my assertions on the EU, and it might actually be better to abandon it.

While I disagree with Remainers on many issues it does seem that in Britain it is mostly the center-left that are the strongest supporters of Remain, and I would prefer not to see them discredited obviously.

I'd say something about the centre-left being the most rational section in politics most of the time, so it's no wonder they're pro-remaining (if not fully pro-EU).

 

[Lexicus]

Perfectly true, and a glaring problem that everyone who supports the EU is aware of. The only effective remedy would be a much larger EU PR-office however, and that would instantly be branded a «ministry of propaganda»...

The effective remedy would be for the EU's current treaties to be reworked and replaced with treaties that prioritize social rights above the rights of capital in all cases. A larger EU-PR office would be justly called a ministry of propaganda, since PR is, perhaps ironically, just a propaganda term for propaganda

Here I disagree with you from the completely opposite point of view:

If the damage is much less than what I and others expect, and the benefits of EU membership is overstated, then I am wrong in many of my assertions on the EU, and it might actually be better to abandon it.

I want to emphasize that I do not believe leaving the EU is without costs, or that it is easy to do it in a way that minimizes those costs.