Brexit Thread V - The Final Countdown?!?

[Silurian]

Rubbish, the weather was good last summer.

 

[AmazonQueen]

Rubbish, the weather was good last summer.

The £ was doing better then. Not as well as before Brexit but better than now.
Lets face it, if you come to the UK its not for the weather.

 

[Silurian]

There is a lot of talk generally about (a) dropping voting age to 16, (b) enabling UK nationals who have been
out of the UK for more than 15 years to vote (c) enabling EU citizens resident in the UK to vote.

I can understand why Brexiteers would be reluctant to allow people who will have to put up the results of Brexit for next sixty years when they will only will live with it for twenty. I think it would be good to lower the voting age for all elections to 16 but doubt that it will happen any time soon.

I agree that that it would be a good idea to stop Oerdin from voting. I wonder how people who return from the EU after Brexit will vote, most likely not for the Brexiteers.

I have not heard of anyone serious proposing that people who are not UK citizens should vote in UK elections and referendum.

 

[AmazonQueen]

I can understand why Brexiteers would be reluctant to allow people who will have to put up the results of Brexit for next sixty years when they will only will live with it for twenty. I think it would be good to lower the voting age for all elections to 16 but doubt that it will happen any time soon.

I agree that that it would be a good idea to stop Oerdin from voting. I wonder how people who return from the EU after Brexit will vote, most likely not for the Brexiteers.

I have not heard of anyone serious proposing that people who are not UK citizens should vote in UK elections and referendum.

Given that EU citizens can already vote in the UK in council, devolved assembly and European Parliament elections I wouldn't be surprised if some people thought it would be a natural move to allow them to vote for MPs as well but its certainly not a part of Conservative or Labour programs at present.

 

[Silurian]

and UK citizens have similar rights in the EU.

 

[really]

Irish people living in the UK could vote in that referendum.
We don't return the favour and restrict voting in referendums to Irish citizens.

 

[Hrothbern]

I have not heard of anyone serious proposing that people who are not UK citizens should vote in UK elections and referendum.

How is that for the local Council elections in the UK ?

Here in NL for the local Council elections foreigners are allowed to vote if they live in that city and they are from the EU or have lived for >5 years in NL with a valid permit.

It had as weird effect that as until 2015 most of Turkish and Moroccan people voted on the social democratic party, half of them vote now, since the populist immigration hype, on DENK, which behaves, although denied all the time, more as a puppy party for Erdogan. Which was all too clear during the row between the NL and Erdogan in spring 2017.

Instead of using their vote to their habitat interests and opinion on local city policies, the well intended democratic purpose to give them votes... their vote reflects totally other considerations...
Some learning and integration curve to go yet

 

[AmazonQueen]

How is that for the local Council elections in the UK ?

Here in NL for the local Council elections foreigners are allowed to vote if they live in that city and they are from the EU or have lived for >5 years in NL with a valid permit.

It had as weird effect that as until 2015 most of Turkish and Moroccan people voted on the social democratic party, half of them vote now, since the populist immigration hype, on DENK, which behaves, although denied all the time, more as a puppy party for Erdogan. Which was all too clear during the row between the NL and Erdogan in spring 2017.

Instead of using their vote to their habitat interests and opinion on local city policies, the well intended democratic purpose to give them votes... their vote reflects totally other considerations...
Some learning and integration curve to go yet

EU citizens can vote in our local elections. A lot of people in the UK vote tribally, same party at every level of election, such that local and Euro elections are often seen as reflecting opinion on the national government.

 

[Silurian]

Irish people living in the UK could vote in that referendum.
We don't return the favour and restrict voting in referendums to Irish citizens.

Irish people living in the UK can vote in any election.

 

[Kyriakos]

I think that a second referendum is by now not a terrible idea (but it was made an option by the ecj, whose decision is at the very least highly suspect).
Yet i am not sure if:
A) the uk has time to organise this seriously
B) it is non- suspect to grand it time past the deadline (april 1).

Moreover, i wouldnt rule out a new leave vote, for lots of reasons.

 

[AmazonQueen]

I think that a second referendum is by now not a terrible idea (but it was made an option by the ecj, whose decision is at the very least highly suspect).
Yet i am not sure if:
A) the uk has time to organise this seriously
B) it is non- suspect to grand it time past the deadline (april 1).

Moreover, i wouldnt rule out a new leave vote, for lots of reasons.

The Guardian had an estimate of late May as the earliest a referendum could be hold. Parliament has to pass a law, agree what the questions are, then some administrative tasks. Thats assuming May lost her meaningful vote in January so the UK would need more time. Another Leave vote is possible even for a No Deal option but at least then the British people would've knowingly jumped off a cliff, nobody else to blame but themselves.

 

[Silurian]

I think that a second referendum is by now not a terrible idea (but it was made an option by the ecj, whose decision is at the very least highly suspect).
Yet i am not sure if:
A) the uk has time to organise this seriously
B) it is non- suspect to grand it time past the deadline (april 1).

Moreover, i wouldnt rule out a new leave vote, for lots of reasons.

The ECJ did not make a second referendum possible it has always been an option.

We are leaving on 29/03/2019 not 01/04/2019, the date has been written into law so the law would need changing to change the date.

I am not sure if the UK can organise anything at the moment. Parliament would have to pass the law to enable the referendum, what questions would be agreed? I assume that the new referendum law would delay the exit date. It is likely that the EU would allow a short delay to allow for a referendum but most likely it would have to take place before the EU elections in May. I would expect that we would have to leave with no deal or the agreed deal within a week or two after the referendum.

It is likely that a no deal leave would be an option in any referendum so negotiations, to keep aircraft flying etc, would have to take place during the referendum campaign. If we chose the no deal leave, EU and UK businesses, government and people would need to know as soon as possible so that they could be ready to implement shortly after the referendum result. I am sure that the on going updates about the progress of the no deal negotiations would drive the no deal supporters wild.

 

[Hrothbern]

I think that a second referendum is by now not a terrible idea (but it was made an option by the ecj, whose decision is at the very least highly suspect).
Yet i am not sure if:
A) the uk has time to organise this seriously
B) it is non- suspect to grand it time past the deadline (april 1).

Moreover, i wouldnt rule out a new leave vote, for lots of reasons.

The risk on a new Leave majority in a new referendum is certainly there.
Farrage was already warming up to it, spinning it as the way for a decisive and UK uniting victory for the Leavers.
See and listen to the short vid with a very relaxed Farrage on the outcome of such a new referendum:
https://www.bbc.com/news/av/uk-42654608/nigel-farage-warming-to-second-eu-referendum
And if he loses... a betrayal by the Westminster swamp... he will have lots of ammo for his rightwing (new) political party, happily joining with Bannon and all fringe thinktanks as a cancer in the UK.

If you want to change that Leave risk, the only way I can think off, is to take your chances on the May deal in the Westminster vote showdown (in 1 or 2 rounds), and when that fails, live with the cliff edge no-deal disruption and hold a new referendum on Rejoin, amidst all the chaos end of 2019-begin 2020.

IF that scenario, for a Rejoin referendum, would reduce the chance on a permanent Leave on WTO basis, it must still be weighted against the disruption damage as negative, and the chance on less division among the UK people and less damage from the Westminster betrayal (for 52% of the people) as a positive.

I have still not forgotten the remark by Barnier 1-2 months ago that a referendum as he sees it would be on Rejoin and not on Remain.
The EU is not interested in the UK as partner in the EU if that would after this mess only result in a couple of years in a new Brexit, which is more likely if the UK people are dragged back in a hurry, with many people feeling betrayed by abuse of that referendum.
Is that strong, stable, sustainable, reliable ?
Does the EU really want a heavily divided people joining ?
With too many MP's secretly wanting to Remain, but publicly bowing to the sentiments ?
With a government as representative for the UK in the EU that was not talking in good faith to the EU and its own UK people. A solo tour of a leader without MP support, without the empathy to unite her people behind her... not even bothering to do that.

I would much more prefer fast snap elections (as first step after a negative vote on the May transition deal) where politicians are substantially more honest to their people in the campaign about what they really think is best for their country.
And if they lose their job, because they cannot explain it... so be it.
That is representative democracy.
Representatives are not intended to be only amplifiers and messengers of their people, nor to ignore them. It is a two-way process.

But IDK if there is enough time left to do elections before another parliament vote on the May deal to get that final showdown before March 29.
But snap elections are imo more befitting a representative democracy than escaping to referendums when your parliament is in gridlock of its own doing.

 

[Kyriakos]

Which is why, imo, you just dont have enough time anymore for a second referendum (if the end would be to remain as before, which obviously wasnt an option up to the recent and bizarre ecj ruling).
Imo focusing on a norway-type deal would be more logical. Still, you can do that after april anyway.

 

[AmazonQueen]

Which is why, imo, you just dont have enough time anymore for a second referendum (if the end would be to remain as before, which obviously wasnt an option up to the recent and bizarre ecj ruling).
Imo focusing on a norway-type deal would be more logical. Still, you can do that after april anyway.

Well we could if we could agree on a transition agreement. If we can't agree on a transition agreement and just drift till the end of March its an automatic no deal which is what I think the hardliner Brexiteers now want, although they will claim if only May had followed their advice we could've had a brilliant deal.

 

[Silurian]

@Hrothbern I doubt that an election would change anything. There is no agreement about what Brexit means. There was no agreement in 2016 and there is no agreement know. People will accept one type of Brexit bit not another. So another snap election would produce the same result, no agreement on what Brexit mean Brexit means.

 

[Arakhor]

Which is why, imo, you just dont have enough time anymore for a second referendum (if the end would be to remain as before, which obviously wasnt an option up to the recent and bizarre ecj ruling).

You keep going on as if the ECJ were being "activist judges". Lord Kerr, one of the people who wrote Article 50, says that there is nothing in the text that prohibits unilateral repeal before the deadline.

 

[Hrothbern]

@Hrothbern I doubt that an election would change anything. There is no agreement about what Brexit means. There was no agreement in 2016 and there is no agreement know. People will accept one type of Brexit bit not another. So another snap election would produce the same result, no agreement on what Brexit mean Brexit means.

I saw an article today that May had said "Brexit means Brexit" in the EU-27 summit. The PM's of those 27 countries were flabbergasted. They expected content from May instead of being treated like... children ?... newsmedia ?... voters ?... other UK MP's ?
Honestly.. I cannot really blame many of the Leave voters. This gap between realities and the Leave vote is not caused by the people, not initiated by the people... but caused by irresponsible politicians spoonfeeding shallow nonsense to the people and initiated by a small dedicated group of free marketeer rebels jumping on the immigrant and nationalism hype on the fertile soil of austerity.

So another snap election would produce the same result

I think that depends on how the politicians of the parties will campaign.
If they take their position based on polls of their district, and reduce their role to messenger, you can as well skip the election and go to a showdown or a referendum.

Nevertheless, I understand what you say as the likely reality

But I do see it as a breach of the representative democracy. A more principled point of view. Holding referenda until you get what you wanted but did not say... huh ?
And are the people really better informed when that second referendum is done in a hurry?
It is, I think, just as with the Climate changes. Most people not used to handle complicated info and having the "wrong" faith, only believe it when they see it, when they feel it in their daily life.

And IF a new referendum will have a majority for a WTO Leave, there is no way back anymore for many years to come... regardless on how big or small the damage is.

It is for me like gambling and putting everything on one card.

Snap elections is a card that can be played before a referendum.
And as mentioned in a post above, I would even prefer to max the chance to get the May deal and face a cliff-edge WTO risk as second card to play.
And if both fail, the referendum card can be played as last option when things go indeed nasty, when the regular people feel in their Real Life what it means to WTO.

This scenario feels for me as A. principled most correct, B. lowest risk on a lasting WTO that divides the population C. lowest risk on a divided, partially betrayed people, if it comes to a Rejoin.

 

[Silurian]

Well the Government does not want an election because it would lose its majority and as I noted before Labour are most likely holding back for the point of maximum weakness. Labour would lose a no confidence motion at the present anyway.

If Corbyn was to come out and say that "Brexit was a disaster it could have worked but the Tories have messed it up so we have no choice but to stay" some Conservative MPs may resign the whip and support a Labour motion of no confidence. But I think that is unlikely.

If Labour won an election then carried out Brexit it would have no time to change anything and because Parliament was not sitting it is unlikely that the necessary legislation would be passed to allow the currently proposed deal to be passed. There is concern that there is insufficient time for Parliament to pass the necessary legislation at present, there are a lot of cans that have been kicked and no more road. So if there is an election Labour would be held responsible for a disorderly no deal Brexit. So I think Labour will not want to grab the bag of feaces off the Government because they are unlikely to come out of it without stuff on their face.

May could decide to go for a referendum to shift the blame onto the voters and hopefully save the Tories from some of the fallout.

There is no time for an election and then a referendum. Remember UK law currently states that we are leaving at 2300 29/03/2019.

 

[really]

I don't remember it being mentioned before but under this withdrawal agreement UK citizens will probably be subject to the new Schengen zone visa waiver advance authorisation scheme ETIAS where they will have to pay a small fee and answer questions on their health, criminal record etc. Before being given a three year visa free travel authorisation to enter the Schengen area. This would not allow people to live or work just visit and do business for up to 90 days a year across the whole Schengen zone.

It will be a very visible difference for some.