Brexit Thread VI - The Knockout Phase ?!?

[Takhisis]

It's interesting to see how stron innonimatu's fixation with the EU is that he even calls the UK the EU.

Sure, that's my point. At one point, our airforce was only able to patrol the skies during office hours (so the French had to help when an aircraft was abducted in 2014 at 6 AM in the morning), but we're spending money to fix that... (https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/air-space_swiss-beef-up-air-police-service/44647388)

That's more proof of the scope of France's imperialist spirit, isn't it?

I have always been against stopping conscription duty in my country. I think it is important that the culture of the army reflects the general societal culture of the people, to mitigate the risk of a subculture in the army.
On that leftish against military... it's there... but I had never any trouble with talking openly with the leftish up to anarch bunch about my conscription time in my communty volunteer time. There is a big difference between defending your country and real peace keeping actions on the one hand, and dubious foreign country actions on the other hand..

My understanding is that conscription disappeared mainly in our country because of cost cuts of the government. The story that the fall of the wall changed everything only the partial reason. The reduced need to have always fully trained conscripts would also enable to reduce the 14 months for a soldier to 12 months (better fitting between secondary school and the next education) and do the whole process batch wise, synchronised with school years.
Anybody with issues with the army could by the "S-5" procedure get a social duty period instead. When I was in the army in the late 70ies, the stigma and the taboo on that S-5 were not strong anymore and disappeared rapidly. Outside exceptions, no employer cared about that S-5 status anymore.
In today's world I would like at least 50% doing social duty conscription and include female for both choices.

I must add that there were in my time some weird *******s among the professionals, mostly extreme conservative. But *******s are everywhere. And besides all my fellow comrades from all over NL, I did meet many professionals who were very talented in human and social judgment and skills. Learned a lot (besides all the sports, playing billiard, learning to tap beer, etc).

That stockmarket ? no, not here.

I disagree with conscription. Here it resulted in people wasting at least a year of their lives doing pretty much nothing and getting abused and tortured by their highly snobbish officers.

 

[innonimatu]

yes
I am aware of both
Turkey has a sectoral Customs Union. That difference is easily adressed in the wording of a possible EU-UK treaty.
And the Irish border issue has not disappeared with a base level Customs Union.
That's why the Withdrawal document stays key for the EU.
So far the Boris proof level.

And not for nothing Barnier indicated that if it comes to a Customs Union, the EU is willing........... and could have that on the table fast.
I guess, with that negotiation team doing since months already nothing re actual stuff, Barnier has for all likely scenarios completely written out documents in a modular fashion.

But the WA already provides for more than a customs union, and was rejected. That was the fundamental issue with Labour and the customs union position: they have actually been calling for less than what May allowed in the WA. While being careful not to say so, and allowing leavers to have the opposite impression. That was a neat trick. Trying to tack on more things into what would be called a "Customs Union" would run into problems fast: Labour, for an example, ran against unrestricted movement of people with the EU also. And the there is the backstop: how do you attach that to a Customs Union treaty, under what rationale can it be part of it? This customs union is for ever and ever, and requires you as a party to submit to our (as the other party) present and future laws? It can't be done. Even the Zollverein wasn't that one-sided to favor Prussia! The UK would have to have representation in law-making, or the union would have to accept what customs unions usually mean: that tariffs are abolished but regulations remain different, and controls for those are still required.

I have seen this talk of a customs union as one more way to burn time and keeping some people busy, distracting them.

 

[Senethro]

WA was temporary, CU was long term.

 

[Hrothbern]

It's interesting to see how stron innonimatu's fixation with the EU is that he even calls the UK the EU.

That's more proof of the scope of France's imperialist spirit, isn't it?

I disagree with conscription. Here it resulted in people wasting at least a year of their lvies doing pretty much nothing and getting abused and tortured by their highly snobbish officers.

How country cultures can differ !
I learned really a lot during my 17 months. About myself, people from all provinces, good and bad leadership, soldarity-teamship-comradeship, too much to tell.. I had relatively many trainings and survival like stuff in the small pieces of wilderness in NL.... perhaps I was lucky as well. And some really grand experiences !
We had some officers that were of the abusive type, but their days were gone. They were mere annoying fossils. Protecting my people against avoidable fines all the time in my head. The informal culture of the "good guys" was strong. It was the first time in my life I experienced how good an informal culture can function, and is necessary.

And I fully believe you when that is incomparable with Argentina.

 

[Arakhor]

This is all a result of May's red lines, leading to a situation thoroughly complicated by the existence of the Northern Irish border (or, rather, the clear and present danger of needing to not have that border).

 

[EnglishEdward]

please explain with an example

From the report and page you referenced::

in 2016 there are over 14 million vehicles entering Ireland from NI

Consider that figure against the total population of the island;
and the number of vehicles registered there.

I do not believe that over 14 million vehicles entered the RoI from NI.

However there may have been 14 million vehicle crossings in total,
because many vehicles went back and forth across the border.

From a theoretical point of view 14 million vehicle crossings could have
been 140,000 vehicles each crossing from North to South each 100 times;
or 100,000 vehicles each crossing from North to South each 140 times etc.

Of course it was obviously not a product of just two multiples,
some vehicles may each have crossed only once, others may
each have crossed several hundreds times.

One thing that sucks about this Brexit business is if you stop paying attention for three days you're totally lost.

However the converse is not true.

People can pay attention for three days, and still not know what is going.

 

[Hrothbern]

Consider that figure against the total population of the island;
and the number of vehicles registered there.

I do not believe that over 14 million vehicles entered the RoI from NI.

However there may have been 14 million vehicle crossings in total,
because many vehicles went back and forth across the border.

From a theoretical point of view 14 million vehicle crossings could have
been 140,000 vehicles each crossing from North to South each 100 times;
or 100,000 vehicles each crossing from North to South each 140 times etc.

Of course it was obviously not a product of just two multiples,
some vehicles may each have crossed only once, others may
each have crossed several hundreds times.
.

ahhh... ok... thanks

They do speak in the related footnote (10) on that page about "movements" : 10 Movements in the opposing northerly direction, Ireland to NI, are roughly equal.

 

[mitsho]

Well, I live at a different (non-existing) border and yes, I can confirm, we cross it all the times for no reason. Just last week, we took a road that took us over and back just because of a construction site creating traffic jams here and there. I went over last summer a few times because there was a gelateria shop I liked. I left my bike there sometimes because it was easier. Living realities just differ from borders. The reasons differ when you live some way further from the border, but nowadays, it‘s just not an issue (here in Europe!) and I‘d like it to stay that way.

 

[Kyriakos]

 

[uppi]

Looks like France is the major proponent for only granting a short extension. I am not sure why (beyond political posturing). If an extension is granted until June, does anyone doubt we'll be here again in June? In my opinion, the only viable options are either to grant a long extension or to end this tomorrow.

 

[innonimatu]

This drama has been about political posturing for a long time already.

Macron wants the impossible: binding conditions on the extension to be offered by the EU. Any conditions attached other than the dates can be challenged by the UK as unlawful, not provided for in the european treaties. The Council is authorized to extend the period between notification and exit, but the member state remains a full member except for that provided in paragraph 4 of the article 50.
The Council is not authorized to attach conditions that modify the treaties, such as restricting voting rights.

The arguing is probably about this point. It's a clear trap the EU can set upon itself by trying to be "smart": the EU attached conditions, a future UK government takes it to the CJEU. And wins. Imagine PM Boris...

Make no mistake, a long extension (any type of long extension) can and will be sold by the tories to their voters as "the EU gave in, we got something better than the WA, and now we'll force them to offer us better conditions". May will have to go as leader and a new lone can campaign on this in a new election.
May knows this, she desperately tried to avoid a long extension because it means the knives will be out for her in the party. Not because she handled the issue badly, but because it opens an opportunity for a new leader to look good in campaign and win an election.

We'll see if the EU makes the trap for itself to walk into. May certainly didn't ask for it, she wanted the short extension, too short for a leadership challenge and a new election. I partly give it to Macron, he's smart enough to see it. Just not smart enough to defuse it if his method is to attach conditions.

 

[innonimatu]

So, in typical long-hours meeting mode the decision was a halfway point.

Not too bad though, strategically, for the EU. It's long enough to let the UK have a new election, but not so long that a new government will make much damage inside the EU. And no conditions were attached that would obviously be struck down as illegal. There were some test leaks to the press with insane schemes, I still wonder whose idea those were.

It also burns the remaining time of the mandates of the main people involved with the decisions from the EU up to this time. The hot potato will be passed to new leaders in the EU bureaucracy, these escape any blame. They're as good at playing this blame game as May!

But this extension is the end for May if she accepts it, isn't it? With enough time for an early election and something that can just be sold as a "win" to the conservatives' voters (can it? or will the votes for exit be too pissed?), there will be people wanting to take over from her. And if she refuses this date, which she still can (and it isn't what parliament told her to ask for), still she won't prevent a challenge within the party. Recycle herself as the no-deal exit PM, steal the show from the likes of Boris? That would be too desperate for May I think.

 

[Takhisis]

This drama has been about political posturing for a long time already.

You're getting good at this self-analysis thing.

 

[Arakhor]

If a layman is adept enough to spot something supposedly illegal, I'm damn sure that at least one of those 27 heads of government and their assorted staff will know about it. Not everyone is the Tory party after all.

 

[Marla_Singer]

I stand to my point. Brexit simply can't happen for the only reason that the UK will never agree with a deal which would be less good than membership and they simply can't get such a deal as that's in the interests of no one else. So the country will keep on asking for delays that the EU will grant because that's in the interests of most countries.

Britain has absolutely no intention to draw a plan as it has all interests to kick the can down the road. So the situation will only rot, probably untill either next UK general elections or a very hypothetical 2nd referendum.

 

[Arakhor]

We all know that May is very intent on forcing her deal on everyone, but it is such a terrible deal concocted entirely on her red lines (and isn't a diamond-hard Brexit) that naturally Parliament rejected it multiple times.

Of course, if she'd done any measure of compromise or consultation, we likely wouldn't be in this situation. The ERG are just as much to blame for this as anyone else, even if they are busy blaming literally anyone else for their failure.

 

[innonimatu]

If a layman is adept enough to spot something supposedly illegal, I'm damn sure that at least one of those 27 heads of government and their assorted staff will know about it. Not everyone is the Tory party after all.

I'm sure many spotted it. I'm equally sure some did not I really, really wanted to know if Macron was one of those. One can't trust all the "news" placed on newspapers, but talk was of attacking draconian conditions. This one actually attached (a review by the time of the EP elections) is reasonable.

I stand to my point. Brexit simply can't happen for the only reason that the UK will never agree with a deal which would be less good than membership and they simply can't get such a deal as that's in the interests of no one else. So the country will keep on asking for delays that the EU will grant because that's in the interests of most countries.

So long as it is between the WA (or a similar treaty) and extending membership under this government, I agree. Strategically, it makes sense to postpone until they get their act together and have a no-deal organized as a serious alternative strategy, then they can negotiate properly. With a different government, a different agenda, things change.
The issue is that May is out, I think, unless she risks it all can calls an exit now. Will she do that to preserve her job?

Britain has absolutely no intention to draw a plan as it has all interests to kick the can down the road. So the situation will only rot, probably untill either next UK general elections or a very hypothetical 2nd referendum.

I don't think the UK will avoid anticipated elections soon. There's not much point in avoiding it further if they're going to have the european one. That one will be fought on Europe and force the splits in the parties, the fear that was leading to postponing a general election. They may as well do a general election then.

In the EU the governments of the main countries won't face elections but key EU appointed bureaucrats will change before the year ends.

 

[Marla_Singer]

The only key personnalities in the EU are the 27 28 heads of government. They are driven exclusively by their national interests and this won't change. That's what they are mandated for.

As a matter of fact, I don't see how the EU could move a lot really. It won't integrate more because that will be blocked by the majority of the EU27 28 and it won't disintegrate because that will also be blocked by the majority of the EU27 28. I don't necessarily see a particularly bright future for Europe at this stage.

 

[innonimatu]

The Council decided on things such as these extensions. But the vast majority of the heads of government seems to have had little input in the negotiations phase of this WA on the EU side. Those were handled by what I call the EU bureaucracy. Some of them appointed politicians, former PMs, etc, but not acting heads of government.

 

[FriendlyFire]

The Council decided on things such as these extensions. But the vast majority of the heads of government seems to have had little input in the negotiations phase of this WA on the EU side. Those were handled by what I call the EU bureaucracy. Some of them appointed politicians, former PMs, etc, but not acting heads of government.

Iam pretty sure that each country parliament (media etc) has and is still free to publicly voice there own wishes / demands etc in regards to the Brexit deal
Like Poland threatening to veto if its Plumbers were mass deported from the UK Kuwra !