You can argue semantics about the difference between "losing jobs" and "the risk of losing jobs", but the fact remains that nothing of the sort was ever "made very, very clear", except by those people you yourself have written off as Project Fear many times within these threads.
What Andrea Leadson made very clear in that interview
was actually that there would be "winners and losers".
I do not hear her "very clear" as being a response to the interviewer's
persistent interruption, but as a simple follow on of her previous sentence.
From that article in BBC
Signalling to the EU that the UK needs an "implementation" period of half a year after 31 Dec 2020 ?
Not necessarily.
I think that things have moved beyond signalling to implementation of no further deal for now.
There is a customs check and a customs duty. They are quite separate things.
As I understand it Customs duties will start from 1 January 2021, and import tariffs will
be applied to car imports and lorryloads of wine etc by supplier declarations from then.
It would just be impossible to enforce any new UK rules on imports.
While the delaying of the physical infrastructure for the corresponding physical checks
on goods until 1 July 2021 will certainly create a risk of evasion, how significant is that?
I think that the Pareto principle 80:20 applies here. If anything it applies in overtime.
I.e. 10% of the business names will undertake 90% of the bulk car/wine shipments.
HM Customs know who those businesses are, and those businesses know that HMCR
can always retro-audit and fine them heavily so HMRC may expect honest declarations.
Yes, a number of small cowboys may play the system and not declare or under declare
in the first six months, but if that totals to 10% of the value, the loss may be accepted.
At the moment, HMG gets no customs duty on imports from the EU.
If it only gets 90% for the first six months, well that is an improvement on 0%.
Strangely enough I think that the real drive for the physical checks will come from
the larger importers not wishing to be undercut by the cowboy smugglers.