China Attacks Scenarios

[Borachio]

I suppose that would be nice. And it's not unrealistic. The EU is already in Nato isn't it? Or significant parts of it are anyway.

But I don't think a Nato-Chinese alliance would ever stop regional conflicts in, for example, the Middle East.

What effect could it possibly have on the Syrian Civil War?

 

[Commodore]

I suppose that would be nice. And it's not unrealistic. The EU is already in Nato isn't it? Or significant parts of it are anyway.

But I don't think a Nato-Chinese alliance would ever stop regional conflicts in, for example, the Middle East.

I don't see why it wouldn't stop those conflicts. Any nation that wasn't in on the "great alliance" would have no choice but to comply with the demands of the alliance since there is no way they could muster any kind of resistance; militarily, politically, or economically.

I also think having China on our side would go a long way to stabilize Central Asia and effectively contain Iran.

 

[Borachio]

Yeah.

I'm not convinced that any superpower is anything but powerless against internal conflicts. And regional conflicts are essentially just local civil wars spilling over into neighbouring countries.

The only way to resolve those is politically. Military might seems superfluous.

 

[Commodore]

Yeah.

I'm not convinced that any superpower is anything but powerless against internal conflicts. And regional conflicts are essentially just local civil wars spilling over into neighbouring countries.

The only way to resolve those is politically. Military might seems superfluous.

When I talk about an alliance, I am not just talking militarily. I envision the US, EU, and China using all of their combined military, political, and economic power to stabilize the world.

 

[BvBPL]

Americans in general seem extremely fascinated with the idea of going to war....

Military strength is a stand-in for, or perhaps a part of, male virility. That association is not limited to Americans.

American is the superpower at present. China is an upcoming superpower. Comparisons between the two powers should not be unusual.

It is a dick measuring contest. Which also isn't unusual among men anywhere.

 

[Borachio]

Hmm. I was reading only recently that fascism is just extending egocentrism up to the state level.

 

[BvBPL]

Seems unlikely.

 

[Borachio]

No. Really, I did read it. (I know you didn't mean that. Probably. But I like to be silly.)

Still, there's this. (unrelated to my original point)

Why shouldn't/couldn't a political ideology be interpreted in psychological terms?

 

[BvBPL]

Yeah, I'd say that Reich took dick measuring as a national policy a step beyond what most psychologists and such would.

Which doesn't mean he was invalid (despite the US gov't's claims against his research), merely that he was significantly outside the norm.

 

[Borachio]

He certainly thought outside the box.

No, wait...

 

[Winner]

Why on Earth would the Chinese attack South Korea? If anything, they'd want to ally it or at least secure its neutrality by promising to rein in the North.

If there was a conflict, China would attempt to keep it as a purely China-Japan squabble and pull no stops to keep the Americans out of it. The Americans would have to make a conscious decision to engage China in support of Japan.

 

[Commodore]

Why on Earth would the Chinese attack South Korea? If anything, they'd want to ally it or at least secure its neutrality by promising to rein in the North.

If there was a conflict, China would attempt to keep it as a purely China-Japan squabble and pull no stops to keep the Americans out of it. The Americans would have to make a conscious decision to engage China in support of Japan.

We are kind of obligated to help Japan though as a result of their surrender during WWII. Part of the justification for completely dismantling their military beyond a self-defense force was that the US would then act as Japan's defender. That means any Japanese war is an American war, no matter how small or detrimental to US interests. Now, we could of course ignore our obligation to Japan in favor of national interest, but that sends a bad message to our other allies.

 

[Winner]

We are kind of obligated to help Japan though as a result of their surrender during WWII. Part of the justification for completely dismantling their military beyond a self-defense force was that the US would then act as Japan's defender. That means any Japanese war is an American war, no matter how small or detrimental to US interests. Now, we could of course ignore our obligation to Japan in favor of national interest, but that sends a bad message to our other allies.

And if the Japanese fire first? If the squabble begins with the Japanese "self-defence" Navy sinking or damaging a Chinese vessel or shooting down a Chinese warplane?

That could provide the excuse a less hawkish president might need to avoid getting his country dragged into a major war with a huge Asian power.

China would then occupy the rocks, call it quits and then pretend nothing has happened. The Japanese would grit their teeth, appeal to the UN, get laughed off, and everybody would breathe a sigh of relief and resume buying Chinese-made iPhones and the other crap they produce.

 

[Commodore]

And if the Japanese fire first? If the squabble begins with the Japanese "self-defence" Navy sinking or damaging a Chinese vessel or shooting down a Chinese warplane?

That could provide the excuse a less hawkish president might need to avoid getting his country dragged into a major war with a huge Asian power.

China would then occupy the rocks, call it quits and then pretend nothing has happened. The Japanese would grit their teeth, appeal to the UN, get laughed off, and everybody would breathe a sigh of relief and resume buying Chinese-made iPhones and the other crap they produce.

That is actually a good question. I am not that familiar with the terms of our alliance with Japan to accurately state what Japan being the aggressor means for our obligations to defend them. I would assume though that we would let them fight it out themselves unless China attempts a full invasion of the Japanese home islands.

 

[Hakim]

In a conflict between China and a Western another power, both sides would consider themselves to be the defender and have valid reasons for it.

Every time an entity of power eclipses another there will be tension and perhaps showdown, and the scale will increase with progress of humanity. The only way to escape the hamster wheel is to formalise power so that formal power lies close to and follows real power.

 

[Akka]

Well, "in my little world", Chinese leaders are not suicidal maniacs and they are capable to think logically. So far, their real actions doesn't disprove this theory .
On the other hand, proposed scenario of Chinese attack looks quite ... extraordinary to many people here.

It's true that open warfare by China seems rather outlandish - after all, they're in full growth, and they're the main beneficiary of economic stability, so it would be shooting both their feet (at least for the foreseeable future).

On the other hand, China really consider a lot of ground and sea in the region as truly "them" and has been acting in an extremely hawkish manner to all of the neighbours, and trying to enforce completely ridiculous claims.
I wouldn't put them above some quite forceful action, even if it's to appear to play it down right after the fact.

 

[Takhisis]

Because they are bourgeois-nationalist-Lian-Biaoist-revisionists.

Ah, yes, they're going to take over the world in this game of RISK.

It's true that open warfare by China seems rather outlandish - after all, they're in full growth, and they're the main beneficiary of economic stability, so it would be shooting both their feet (at least for the foreseeable future).

On the other hand, China really consider a lot of ground and sea in the region as truly "them" and has been acting in an extremely hawkish manner to all of the neighbours, and trying to enforce completely ridiculous claims.
I wouldn't put them above some quite forceful action, even if it's to appear to play it down right after the fact.

Well, China has historically had the same attitude to East Asia as the 'Mericans have had towards Latin America in the past century or so…

 

[timtofly]

Well, China has historically had the same attitude to East Asia as the 'Mericans have had towards Latin America in the past century or so…

They let them come in droves into their country, and allow them citizen status and would never make a move to attack them?

 

[Takhisis]

There's quite a lot of non-Han in Chinese territory… but I meant that they treat it as their own backyard and property.

 

[schlaufuchs]

Remember the way WW1 got rolling, it was unstoppable after a small indecent.

WW1 was entirely stoppable.