Why do so many people envision all these imagines war scenarios with China? Are people really yearning for another great war that much? I have been in combat and I can tell you it is something I never want to do again unless it is the absolute last option. So anyone who really wants to see a war with China has either never experienced any kind of warfare or they are some sort of mentally broken war junkie.
China Attacks Scenarios
- Thread starter CavLancer
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Gucumatz
JS, secretly Rod Serling
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I wonder what attitudes towards China are like in the Philippines. Your opinion Cav Lancer? [I am curious because the Philippines from a neutral standpoint seems to be situated awkwardly between Western influences and rerising/new Chinese Influences]
FriendlyFire
Codex WMDicanious
G.W.Bush has said that war is "romantic" and "bring it on".
And G.W.Bush saw actual combat in Vietnam and won loads of medals and the USA won that war.
Unless USA has an Democrat president, then a few drones and Navy seals to shoot bad guys in the face while Republicans whine about appeasement, weakness and USA being destroyed.
I do not see any conventional war with China as realistic. I do not see any conventional war between any nuclear powers as realistic to be honest. I think the days of big WWII type conflicts between big world powers are over. Maybe India and Pakistan... maybe. Maybe some day Israel fires off a tactical nuke at a nuclear facility in Iran... maybe.
Proxy wars, regional squabbles, civil wars, cyberwars, terrorism, clandestine stuff... yes. But all the cool kids can nuke each other now. The point of wars in the past was, you know, at least staying alive in the end to enjoy your spoils. Not really the case these days.
Proxy wars, regional squabbles, civil wars, cyberwars, terrorism, clandestine stuff... yes. But all the cool kids can nuke each other now. The point of wars in the past was, you know, at least staying alive in the end to enjoy your spoils. Not really the case these days.
CavLancer
This aint fertilizer
If you live here in the Philippines and hear every petty aggressive move by China it builds up. Still, lighting up a Japanese destroyer with targeting radar is edgy stuff.
Remember the way WW1 got rolling, it was unstoppable after a small indecent. The animosity between these nations may not be fully realized by you guys. China hates Japan for WW2, and Japan just elected a guy who is preparing for war. I think in certain places it's seen as inevitable. During a still difficult time in the Mideast the US is sending ships here at a pretty good clip so someone thinks its possible.
I don't think this war would be as bad as if the Cold War turned hot, the Chinese just don't have the nukes in qty, it would be suicide. The destruction would not be mutually assured. I believe it would be conventional. China is seen as possibly having an ace up its sleeve with its ballistic anti ship missile. That may be their ticket to an upset win, and that would change the world. If the Chinese government believes it can win that's all it takes. If they think the US won't support the Philippines they can start the ball rolling. The US cannot let an attack slide. If the US turns a blind eye to an attack on a Philippine garrison in the EEZ then can Germany, UK and France trust our word?
Consider Argentina with its invasion of the Falkland Islands. Who cares, right? Yet p r i d e got the Brits moving. The Argentine government was a dictatorship and they used the invasion to garner support, keep their heads attached to their necks. China might be doing the same thing. Internal decent might be the driver here.
Remember the way WW1 got rolling, it was unstoppable after a small indecent. The animosity between these nations may not be fully realized by you guys. China hates Japan for WW2, and Japan just elected a guy who is preparing for war. I think in certain places it's seen as inevitable. During a still difficult time in the Mideast the US is sending ships here at a pretty good clip so someone thinks its possible.
I don't think this war would be as bad as if the Cold War turned hot, the Chinese just don't have the nukes in qty, it would be suicide. The destruction would not be mutually assured. I believe it would be conventional. China is seen as possibly having an ace up its sleeve with its ballistic anti ship missile. That may be their ticket to an upset win, and that would change the world. If the Chinese government believes it can win that's all it takes. If they think the US won't support the Philippines they can start the ball rolling. The US cannot let an attack slide. If the US turns a blind eye to an attack on a Philippine garrison in the EEZ then can Germany, UK and France trust our word?
Consider Argentina with its invasion of the Falkland Islands. Who cares, right? Yet p r i d e got the Brits moving. The Argentine government was a dictatorship and they used the invasion to garner support, keep their heads attached to their necks. China might be doing the same thing. Internal decent might be the driver here.
The world really is a different place now than it was in the early 1900s. If China became openly hostile to its neighbors or the US somehow saw fit to pre-emptively strike China, the war would be short and not all that destructive. One reason for this would be most nations (including the potential belligerants in this conflict) have a pretty healthy anti-war movement that would spring to life if a major war was about to start. I think the protests would be significant enough in both the US and China to pressure both governments to find a diplomatic solution to the situation.
I also think most nations that are not directly involved in the fighting would flat out condemn the war. Some of the more powerful and influential ones might even threaten one or both sides with severe economic sanctions and trade embargos if a peaceful resolution to the conflict is not found. I think post-Cold War humanity has come to value wealth and economic stability more than national pride; and a war between China and the US really threatens that stability for the entire world. In fact, state-on-state warfare in general is a threat to the global economy which is why modern governments try so hard to avoid open warfare. Back in 1914 nations still had a lot to gain by attempting to conquer their neighbors militarily. In 2014 however, military conquest is actually detrimental to any nation's interests because of the backlash from the international community.
CavLancer
This aint fertilizer
Pie in the sky. 
Pie in the sky.
Oh, don't get me wrong. It's not like I think humanity has gotten any more noble in the century since WWI; I just think the massive state-on-state wars of the past are no longer all that likely to occur because there is really no significant profit in it anymore. What nations used their armies to achieve a century ago, they now use their businessmen to do. The preferred method of conquest in the 21st century is economic dominance. That is why I feel this conflict will just continue to go on as it has with China, Japan, South Korea, and the US playing their little cat and mouse games with each other. Meanwhile, the real battles will be fought in the board rooms and stock exchanges.
China has nothing to gain from war in current circumstances. The balance of power is anyway turning in their favor, and starting war now, when USA still has significant military advantage over them, is senseless. USA might be more interested in escalation at this point, but even the scenario of attack from U.S. side is implausible.
CavLancer
This aint fertilizer
Their logic may not be yours. You are sitting in your chair and they are sitting in theirs. Who knows what reasoning seems right to the dictators of China? That same reasoning has turned all their neighbors against them. Its not logical to us but it is to them because that is what they have done. You are better off considering why they have taken the actions they have taken than considering the actions you think they should take. That way you might be able to extrapolate their future actions rather than what they would do in your little world. No offense.
BvBPL
Pour Decision Maker
I'm surprised you need to ask this in a Civilization forum. Fantasy wars are kind of the bread and butter for the game.
CavLancer
This aint fertilizer
Missed this earlier.
Chinese control a lot of business here, but they don't necessarily agree with the actions of the government of China. They also eventually become absorbed into the population.
It is generally known that China is in the process of stealing a fortune in resources from this third world country. Political repercussions from the Vietnam/Marcos era still prevail. The US can only only rotate forces through the Philippines, not permanently station forces here. This is slowly giving way in the face of an aggressive China regularly sending ships into the Philippine EEZ which China claims as its own under the most flimsy of pretexts. So the Philippines is buying a few ships for its navy and planes for its airforce but basically it is defenseless. The people tend to turn to the US to protect the Philippines. This lack of ability can be laid at the feet of corruption.
Still, the Philippines is in a fairly good position. It is much closer to its own EEZ than is China. The Philippines needs SAM missiles to shoot down planes within its EEZ and anti ship missiles to control the area. China needs to put a navy out there to do the same and sinking an island isn't so easy. I don't know if the Philippine gov realizes its advantages however. Instead they tend to rely on the US and now Japan. It does really depend on these nations. The Philippines occupies space, that's about it. The space it occupies has become really important...
Oil oil oil, and natural gas, lots and lots of both and most of it belongs to the littlest guy on the block who happens to have some big friends who need oil. What do you think will happen when the bully comes to steal it?
Well, "in my little world", Chinese leaders are not suicidal maniacs and they are capable to think logically. So far, their real actions doesn't disprove this theory
.On the other hand, proposed scenario of Chinese attack looks quite ... extraordinary to many people here.
CavLancer
This aint fertilizer
Meh. "most people here" might not be a good place to hide. 
Light Cleric
ElCee/LC/El Cid
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I'm not at all convinced the balance is turning in their favor. China has many, MANY internal issues that it has to cope with. You can only brutally suppress your problems and population and distort your economy for so long.
But I still see no way China gets involved in a direct war with the USA. It would be a long, stupid, and bloody war, but we're still light years ahead of them technologically, and their attempts to steal and replicate our technology keep ending disastrously, like that stealth fighter they tried to copy from us and are now pawning off to Iran and others because it sucks and they don't want to use it themselves.
Light Cleric
ElCee/LC/El Cid
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They're going to run into big problems with an elderly population much greater than the rest of it because of their population controls, a frustrated class of younger men who can't have a family because so many girls were aborted and the gender ratio was skewed to something stupid like 1.2:1 male:female, and a possible real-estate bubble that are NOT clear of, not by a long shot.
Every dictatorship is a house of cards that's going to fall sooner or later.
Every dictatorship is a house of cards that's going to fall sooner or later.
It's not just on this forum though. Americans in general seem extremely fascinated with the idea of going to war with China. So much so in fact, that it is quite disturbing. Instead of having all these ridiculous war fantasies, we should be trying to find ways to de-escalate the tensions in the region so war becomes less likely.
Borachio
Way past lunacy
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Is it that, pyschologically, the average American is rehearsing a future conflict?
And at some stage China and the US must sort out who is #1, unequivocally? Militarily or not.
Yes, yes. Americans will undoubtedly say that the US is #1. But maybe some of the Chinese are not as sure. At least, not sure that it's inevitably so for all time.
And at some stage China and the US must sort out who is #1, unequivocally? Militarily or not.
Yes, yes. Americans will undoubtedly say that the US is #1. But maybe some of the Chinese are not as sure. At least, not sure that it's inevitably so for all time.
I think certain segments of the American population still long for the 1990s when there was no significant power that could challenge us. Back then anyone who could challenge us was already our ally. Now I think that desire to be the undisputed 'top dog' in the world has lead to a sort of...jealousy(?) towards China. The "Murica #1" crowd seems to think any nation powerful enough to challenge American dominance, or that might someday become powerful enough, is automatically an enemy that must be destroyed.
This is an extremely dangerous way of thinking, and certainly won't do anything to de-escalate the situation. I still maintain that China is not our enemy and both the US and China would be better off if we decided to play nice. I mean think of it: an official alliance between the US and China would be quite unstoppable. Hell, we might even get close to achieving world peace if the EU decided to get in that alliance as well.
