Election 2024 Part III: Out with the old!

[Senethro]

So. 2:1 favorite. Should he lose anyway, is that enough plausibility for him to reject the results?

And will it be a challenge/recount or straight to the grab?

 

[Manfred Belheim]

Two ballot boxes on both sides of the Washington/Oregon border in Vancouver, Washington and Portland, Oregon have been set on fire.

Fire suppression was able to save most of the ballots and the folks who had their ballots lost will be contacted by state authorities.

Devices used in ballot box arsons had 'Free Gaza' markings, sources say

Ballot boxes in Oregon and Washington were set on fire early Monday in what authorities believe are connected incidents, police said.

abcnews.go.com

Ignorant question probably, but how are they going to know who had their ballots lost? Is there a separate register of whose was put in the box?

 

[Gori the Grey]

In some states you can track your ballot online until it is counted. If this is true in these two states, voters could notice that their vote hasn't been counted, know that they used that box and maybe request a fresh ballot.

 

[really]

Ignorant question probably, but how are they going to know who had their ballots lost? Is there a separate register of whose was put in the box?

2024 Election: How to track your ballot and what to do if it's been damaged

On the heels of a drop box fire that damaged hundreds of ballots in Washington state, here's how to track your ballot and what to do if you think it's been damaged.

abcnews.go.com

It seems they track the envelope rather than the ballot.
Practically a voter should check if their envelope has been registered.

 

[Voidwalkin]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/10/28/jeff-bezos-washington-post-trust/

Jeff Bezos has written some words on his reasoning for the lack of endorsement by the Washington Post.

"Likewise with newspapers. We must be accurate, and we must be believed to be accurate. It’s a bitter pill to swallow, but we are failing on the second requirement. Most people believe the media is biased. Anyone who doesn’t see this is paying scant attention to reality, and those who fight reality lose. Reality is an undefeated champion. It would be easy to blame others for our long and continuing fall in credibility (and, therefore, decline in impact), but a victim mentality will not help. Complaining is not a strategy. We must work harder to control what we can control to increase our credibility."

He is correct, but the lack of endorsement will not restore trust.

"The Washington Post and the New York Times win prizes, but increasingly we talk only to a certain elite. More and more, we talk to ourselves."

That's correct and also why it'll fail to restore trust. Bougie in, bougie out.

 

[Manfred Belheim]

In some states you can track your ballot online until it is counted. If this is true in these two states, voters could notice that their vote hasn't been counted, know that they used that box and maybe request a fresh ballot.

2024 Election: How to track your ballot and what to do if it's been damaged

On the heels of a drop box fire that damaged hundreds of ballots in Washington state, here's how to track your ballot and what to do if you think it's been damaged.

abcnews.go.com

It seems they track the envelope rather than the ballot.
Practically a voter should check if their envelope has been registered.

Ah okay, so it's on the voters to check? The original post said that they would be contacted by the state authorities. But if it's trackable then presumably it would work either way.

 

[Gori the Grey]

Well, maybe all voters are contacted: "Hey, if you used this ballot box, double check that your vote got registered; if not we can send you a fresh ballot." Or all voters likely to have used that ballot box.

 

[Qactus]

So. 2:1 favorite. Should he lose anyway, is that enough plausibility for him to reject the results?

And will it be a challenge/recount or straight to the grab?

Apparently their Plan B (if not elected right away) will be to win a House Majority and try a reverse Jan 6...

Outcry over Trump’s hint at ‘little secret’ with House Republicans

Critics condemn ‘sinister’ remark that suggests potential Trump-Mike Johnson plot to settle contested election

www.theguardian.com

 

[Fippy]

Which site?

Betting odds, which means all of them.

 

[lymond]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/10/28/jeff-bezos-washington-post-trust/

Jeff Bezos has written some words on his reasoning for the lack of endorsement by the Washington Post.

"Likewise with newspapers. We must be accurate, and we must be believed to be accurate. It’s a bitter pill to swallow, but we are failing on the second requirement. Most people believe the media is biased. Anyone who doesn’t see this is paying scant attention to reality, and those who fight reality lose. Reality is an undefeated champion. It would be easy to blame others for our long and continuing fall in credibility (and, therefore, decline in impact), but a victim mentality will not help. Complaining is not a strategy. We must work harder to control what we can control to increase our credibility."

He is correct, but the lack of endorsement will not restore trust.

"The Washington Post and the New York Times win prizes, but increasingly we talk only to a certain elite. More and more, we talk to ourselves."

That's correct and also why it'll fail to restore trust. Bougie in, bougie out.

I canceled my Washington Post subscription yesterday

 

[Voidwalkin]

Reportedly, 8% of their subscribers did. Surely a higher number now.

It seems to me Bezos is correct in diagnosing a lack of trust and an island forming, but his attempt at a solution will produce no result. Certainly not in the short term, and likely not in the long term.

He hires, almost exclusively, from a class that has its own beliefs and values. The staff of his paper will naturally represent those beliefs and values, which are not exactly in step with the larger public.

There was a Fetterman interview in the NYT the other day. Fetterman is to my mind roughly representative of where the larger public is, on most issues, and indeed, he comes under pretty intense criticism for some of those views. The realignments seemingly accelerating in voting habits don't favor Dems and probably will not until a rough consensus that they are socially acceptable in educated circles emerges.

John Fetterman Fears Trump Is Stronger Than Ever

The senator discusses the “astonishing” support for the former president in Pennsylvania, his rift with progressives over Israel and his own position in the Democratic Party.

www.nytimes.com

 

[Gori the Grey]

Trump gets three bites at the apple. He could win the election. He could have the House subvert the election results and install him under the pretext that certain states' results are inconclusive and need to be thrown out of the count. He could have the Supreme Court devise some cockamamie legal rationale for installing him as president.

Either of the latter two will be seen clearly for the system-gaming that they are, a pretextual coup. How the resistance to that coup could effectually manifest itself is unclear to me.

The damage has been done by there being no consequences for the Eastman memo. The right perked up and said, "Wait, you can just ignore the election results? Gimme some of that."

 

[aelf]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/10/28/jeff-bezos-washington-post-trust/

Jeff Bezos has written some words on his reasoning for the lack of endorsement by the Washington Post.

"Likewise with newspapers. We must be accurate, and we must be believed to be accurate. It’s a bitter pill to swallow, but we are failing on the second requirement. Most people believe the media is biased. Anyone who doesn’t see this is paying scant attention to reality, and those who fight reality lose. Reality is an undefeated champion. It would be easy to blame others for our long and continuing fall in credibility (and, therefore, decline in impact), but a victim mentality will not help. Complaining is not a strategy. We must work harder to control what we can control to increase our credibility."

He is correct, but the lack of endorsement will not restore trust.

"The Washington Post and the New York Times win prizes, but increasingly we talk only to a certain elite. More and more, we talk to ourselves."

That's correct and also why it'll fail to restore trust. Bougie in, bougie out.

Reportedly, 8% of their subscribers did. Surely a higher number now.

It seems to me Bezos is correct in diagnosing a lack of trust and an island forming, but his attempt at a solution will produce no result. Certainly not in the short term, and likely not in the long term.

He hires, almost exclusively, from a class that has its own beliefs and values. The staff of his paper will naturally represent those beliefs and values, which are not exactly in step with the larger public.

There was a Fetterman interview in the NYT the other day. Fetterman is to my mind roughly representative of where the larger public is, on most issues, and indeed, he comes under pretty intense criticism for some of those views. The realignments seemingly accelerating in voting habits don't favor Dems and probably will not until a rough consensus that they are socially acceptable in educated circles emerges.

John Fetterman Fears Trump Is Stronger Than Ever

The senator discusses the “astonishing” support for the former president in Pennsylvania, his rift with progressives over Israel and his own position in the Democratic Party.

www.nytimes.com

Oh, come off it. He plainly supports Trump. As I said, all he needs is to 'present both sides of the debate' to win support for Trump. Not endorsing anyone is irrelevant.

The lizard brain is susceptible to manipulation through fear. That's what Republicans and especially persons with views which I do not condone trade in.

 

[Sommerswerd]

I've seen people veer right

What people? Sister? Brother? Cousin? What State? What context? Otherwise, can you see that this is just a "some people say" kind of comment... the "appeal to anonymous authority" fallacy.

based on many reasons

Again, I'm not disputing that people have their reasons. I've said as much, exactly. What I'm specifically expressing skepticism of, is the claim that someone criticizing them on the internet somehow turns them into a Trump voter. They were already a Trump voter based on their own internal, conscious and subconscious reasons and they're just trying to blame it on someone else.

I'm not talking about hypothetical voters but trends I've witnessed IRL and observing people/trends online.

Again... what people?

People are sensitive lil creatures, if they feel shunned or shamed they often will react in the opposite direction (especially when someone powerful comes along and tells them it's ok to).

Again, what people? Give me an example of someone, an article, a video, a link... something besides "some people say".

To put it in psychoanalytic terms. This country's Id is coming to the surface and we're trying to beat it with a stick with labels... (we all know the ones, we can even agree many of them indeed do apply)

No... we don't. What labels? Is this going to just boil down to boring censorship/anti-wokeism?

 

[Birdjaguar]

The best way to "hit" Bezos, is not by unsubscribing to the WaPo, but by not shopping through Amazom. If 50 million democrats stopped buying at or through Amazon for 60 days, Jeffy boy would take notice.

 

[Sommerswerd]

I read Thornton as more Clinton than Bush (which would make Grant more Major than Blair) -- but maybe that was just me...?

The movie came out during the Baby Bush Presidency (2003), while he was running for re-election. However, I agree that the character does seem to mix in elements of Bill Clinton too. Again, the character seems to be intended to embody the stereotypical obnoxious American that does/takes whatever they want.

Going back to the song I linked that started this discussion, there is a lyric, "Grab the whole world by the ***** ", that immediately makes me think of fossil fuel, climate change and pollution. It's an interesting image for this election because you have Trump essentially citing "drill baby drill" as his economic plan (along with tariffs), while you have Harris flip-flopping on fracking in order to court voters in Pennsylvania.

 

[Farm Boy]

They found lithium in franking liquids. It's greener than the green synthetic coal wood pellets now!

 

[Gorbles]

Fetterman is to my mind roughly representative of where the larger public is, on most issues, and indeed, he comes under pretty intense criticism for some of those views.

No, he comes under some pretty intense criticism for his heel turn in presentation vs. material politics. Though I believe that's faded, because everybody knows who he actually is now. It's not a surprise anymore, it's just another lying politician that said what people wanted to hear, until he didn't have to keep up the appearance anymore.

 

[Narz]

What people? Sister? Brother? Cousin? What State? What context?

Quite the interrogation!

Otherwise, can you see that this is just a "some people say" kind of comment... the "appeal to anonymous authority" fallacy.

I had in mind a friend of mine from Florida who went from being a long haired hippie to a religious conservative, fortunately he's coming round again but the trend is not uncommon

If you have an hour to kill you can watch this mini-documentary about a popular men's influencer who went from generic, 'easternish' self-helpy fitness guy to fundy Christian maga misogynist over the course of a couple of years. I knew him personally (before the change & after) & was a member of his gym for awhile.

This isn't some hearsay, and even if I didn't know anyone personally who's swung right it's well documented that the divide of young men & young women is highly than ever before recorded (as opposed to being mostly generational as in pasttimes).

Again, I'm not disputing that people have their reasons. I've said as much, exactly. What I'm specifically expressing skepticism of, is the claim that someone criticizing them on the internet somehow turns them into a Trump voter. They were already a Trump voter based on their own internal, conscious and subconscious reasons and they're just trying to blame it on someone else.

I'm not saying that some criticism on the Internet instantly changes someone but I also dispute that everyone who voted for Trump has some inherent Trumpism in their DNA, millions of people flipped from Obama to Trump, people flip politically all the time, we could spend hours diagnosing the reasons why but the extreme in-groupism & purity testing of online 'leftists' is certainly a reason.

No one who votes Trump is 'blaming it on someone else'. You choice of words belies your belief that voting for Trump is a disease that someone should feel ashamed of & needs to blame someone for (I caught Trumpism from twitter). I might even agree that it's a disease of sorts but the fact that it's seen (by you & many others) as some sort of zombie-bite that makes a person somewhat less than human (I'm not saying you believe that but the phrasing & attitude of many can imply that) is going to radicalize. If someone thinks they're 'not allowed' to think or feel a certain thing it's going to make them brace harder.

What labels?

Bigot, racist, sexist, islamaphobe, etc etc

I won't argue that many conservatives fit these labels but hand wringing away Trump's support as solely caused by these is lazy & counterproductive (call it Hillary's deplorables strategty), again if that was all there was to it no one who voted for Obama would turn around and vote for Trump.

 

[Narz]

The best way to "hit" Bezos, is not by unsubscribing to the WaPo, but by not shopping through Amazom. If 50 million democrats stopped buying at or through Amazon for 60 days, Jeffy boy would take notice.

Lol, you know that's not going to happen, may as well expect people to start knitting their own socks