Election 2024 Part III: Out with the old!

[Voidwalkin]

I feel like your individual position on said consensus is the driver here. Or a driver, at least.

*shrugs*

I hope you're one day able to travel to rural America, or spend a bit of time around blue collar people. In my observation, if it's clear a man was not promoted based on the color of his skin, they will be disgusted almost unanimously. They will be equally disgusted, almost unanimously, if they believe a man WAS promoted based on the color of his skin. They don't want it to be about the group at all; it offends their concept of fairness.

Maybe you'd come and see it differently, but this is a pattern I have observed countless times.

 

[Gorbles]

I hope you're one day able to travel to rural America, or spend a bit of time around blue collar people.

Spent a lot of time around blue collar folk, white collar folk, racist of the former, racist of the latter, not racist of the former, not racist of the latter, sexi- you get the idea. Albeit not in the US. But the assumption is amusing.

 

[aelf]

That's sexist.

I know you're being ironic, but we aren't allowed to call people that anymore.

 

[Farm Boy]

Spent a lot of time around blue collar folk, white collar folk, racist of the former, racist of the latter, not racist of the former, not racist of the latter, sexi- you get the idea. Albeit not in the US. But the assumption is amusing.

Careful. They're obnoxiously chatty over here. You should spin through sometime, though. My spin (more)around your neck of the woods is probably the coolest trip I'll get in on this go around.

 

[BenitoChavez]

My stab at an autopsy:

1. Voters just vote based on "the economy" even though their understanding is either short-sighted, or completely ignorant and child-like.
2. Voters don't know, don't care and have no interest in civics. A lot of the country seemed unhappy about Jan 6th at first. Then the fog of time blurred what it was, how it was received etc. Now it's looked at like some unimportant event woke libs won't stop crying about.
3. Stop running women.
4. If Dems want to win in 2028 - they've gotta step up their social media bite-sized, brain-rot fluency. Get more empty-headed but meme-fluent figureheads to run, and then have a competent administration behind them to do the actual work.

5. Biden selected Harris as VP in part because she is a she, and she is black, and he told everyone he picked her because of this.
6. Harris became the nominee without a primary.
7. Fearmongering about immigrants
8. A bunch of people believed in the ʻElection Fraudʻ lie cuz it was told enough times
9. People apparently liked Trumpʻs violent rhetoric

 

[Kaitzilla]

Well its a wrap Allan Lichtman has made his prediction on the winner of the 2024 election. Using his thirteen keys to the white house model.

Here are the keys

The 13 Keys​

1. Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the US House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
5. Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6. Long term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

Eight of the keys are in favor of Harris, while three are in favor of Trump.

Historian who accurately predicted 9 of last 10 presidential elections makes his 2024 pick

Historian Allan Lichtman has announced his prediction on whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris will win the 2024 presidential election.

www.usatoday.com

I know this is from 2 month ago, but it is still interesting to read.
The election autopsy will be interesting.

Did the pollsters mess up again?

I too predicted Harris would win privately.

 

[Hygro]

Didn’t go on Rogan.

 

[Voidwalkin]

assumption is amusing

I did not actually assume you have no experience with blue collar people. You've confirmed those origins directly, if memory serves.

America is different than Britain, though. Related, but different, and to my knowledge, you do not have extensive interaction on a daily basis here. I think you may not receive a rough approximation of what the common sense of fairness is here via online interaction, with its echo chambers, or how current progressive thinking may run afoul of it.

I simply hope you get the opportunity to observe the primary sources directly without intermediaries, in settings with trust between you and the speaker, as I have. I don't think there's much understanding of what such people think even within America itself. It's partly why there's such shock, in my estimation. I won't be offended if you choose a different intermediary with different interpretations(realistically, I expect you to)

 

[Angst]

Didn’t go on Rogan.

wouldn't surprise me if this factored into this quite a bit.

 

[Kyriakos]

Even if she had gone there, she isn't the type to do well in a Rogan interview.
Afaik her campaign manager asked that Rogan would go to her (iirc he always does his shows from his house; certainly did that with Trump) and it would only last 1 hour (instead of the typical 2 for that show).
They didn't want her to do the show, and I suspect they were right; it wouldn't help her.

 

[Canadian Bluebeer]

ahhh... Conan, what is best in life?



Trump won the EC and looks like he's gonna get the Popular Vote too.

It was fun watching CNN and especially MSNBC last night. hee-hee.
(Fox was what I expected, but the other two... heh. )

Oh, take a look at the areas KH won. The vote totals. Compare that to the last 2 elections.
The D's took a real beating across the board in the Presidential vote.

hee-hee-hee..... ayup, I be gigglin'

 

[Gorbles]

America is different than Britain, though.

It is, but you did put an "or" in the sentence, so.

Regardless, I welcome that one day you'll do the same with the "woke". I put in quotes purely out of my disdain for the label. Being in a red part of a red state, even travelling, you're not really going to be able to get more than soundbites. You might understand the pain points there better if you did.

It's not all about university lecturers moralising or whatever. It's real people facing real problems. Problems that a Trump admin will make undeniably worse.

EDIT

To be clear, this isn't meant as some kind of tu quoque. But it's a similar kind of problem, that gets in the way in a similar way.

 

[Hygro]

Even if she had gone there, she isn't the type to do well in a Rogan interview.
Afaik her campaign manager asked that Rogan would go to her (iirc he always does his shows from his house; certainly did that with Trump) and it would only last 1 hour (instead of the typical 2 for that show).
They didn't want her to do the show, and I suspect they were right; it wouldn't help her.

You can’t do poorly on Rogan. That’s the whole point of going in Rogan.

 

[Kyriakos]

I don't think so. Rogan was pro-Trump to begin with, and didn't ask Trump anything difficult. But if you can actually discuss you can do well (Bernie aced it and Rogan said he would vote for Bernie). Kamala just isn't, character-wise, suited to a Rogan show.

 

[Hygro]

She was great on Stern, would have been better on Rogan.

 

[Theov]

I know you're being ironic, but we aren't allowed to call people that anymore.

We arent? Why?
Oh, I called the comment sexist, not the person. Big difference.
One is a statement of fact, the other an insult.

 

[Sommerswerd]

i'm worried about ukraine.

There's nothing to worry about. Ukraine is getting cut off from US aid and they will be forced to surrender and accept Russia's terms. That's it.

 

[Senethro]

ahhh... Conan, what is best in life?



Trump won the EC and looks like he's gonna get the Popular Vote too.

It was fun watching CNN and especially MSNBC last night. hee-hee.
(Fox was what I expected, but the other two... heh. )

Oh, take a look at the areas KH won. The vote totals. Compare that to the last 2 elections.
The D's took a real beating across the board in the Presidential vote.

hee-hee-hee..... ayup, I be gigglin'

Ok, so libs owned, but what good things do you actually think Trump will do?

 

[aelf]

We arent? Why?
Oh, I called the comment sexist, not the person. Big difference.
One is a statement of fact, the other an insult.

Because some people take offense at it. Enough for them to go full fascist.

 

[Joij21]

It's time to hold people accountable for voting for Trump, in my opinion. Especially when it wasn't just the electoral college but even the popular vote he won comfortably.

Good luck alienating your party even further away from the electorate. This will just cause your party to turn inward onto itself, increase the purity checks, and begin to self devour like an oroborus.