Greek general election 2012

[Leoreth]

Man, Greeks are fast at that.

 

[Lillefix]

Syriza will have 3 days from 11am tomorrow

Three days? So in practice Greece have a couple of weeks to form a government before they need to have a reelection. I wonder what would have happened in Belgium if they had a similar law.

 

[Leoreth]

Three days? So in practice Greece have a couple of weeks to form a government before they need to have a reelection. I wonder what would have happened in Belgium if they had a similar law.

A working government?

 

[Silurian]

If Syriza can not form a government then PASOK will get a chance.

 

[Kyriakos]

Well a Syriza government will be fun. Not that it will materialize.

Tsipras has called for "a government of the left", but in reality his only chance to form a government will be if the conservative Independent Greeks (10%) accept to co-govern. Democratic left (5%) is expected to agree to co-govern with Syriza.

Now there is a problem, since due to the complicated proportional law the seats in the parliament are as follows:

ND: 102 (over 1/3 of the Boule)

Syriza: 52

Pasok: 41

Independent Greeks : 33

Communist party: 26

Golden dawn: 21

Democratic left 19.

So Syriza cannot really hope to form a government even if it gets on its ship the independent greeks and the democratic left, since it will only reach 104 seats (out of 300).

Now even if the communist party agrees to join (which i really doubt) it will still only reach 130, being again a minority. Obviously there is (very small) chance that Pasok will be asked to join, but this will be a charade since it will leave the first elected party outside of the coalition. Still it may happen, but won't last long.

The main thing that Syriza was voted for was the complete annulment of the debt by private default, and the continuation of Greece being part of the EU (with or without the euro).

 

[Kyriakos]

Latest news: After a phone call by Samaras (leader of the ND) to the old pm with the same party Constantine Mitsotakis (father of Bacoyanni ) it seems that there is some prospect of both Bacoyanni and Karatzaferis (Laos leader) returning to ND for the very probable case of a new election being held in the short future.*

I think this won't be bad, IF it is true. But i am not sure if it is true since i just saw it in some Pasok-oriented newspaper.

However not all is bad. If there is a new election (which currently seems very likely) it is highly probable that both Independent Greeks and Golden Dawn will go down considerably, whereas the added bonus of a collected 6% from Laos and Bacoyanni's party will be more than sufficient for a clear ND majority according to the current electional law.

*The phone call happened due to Mitsotakes' wife having died on the election day. Samaras offered his condolences.

 

[Dachs]

Eh, the NSDAP gained popularity more because it offered the most coherent opposition to the left- and above all the Communist Party- rather than because it had much of a draw in-and-of-itself.

It was less that Nazism was coherent and more that most of the other coherent far-right and right-wing parties that had been more popular early on successfully discredited themselves in the late twenties by failing to deliver on key election promises e.g. the revalorization crisis. Insofar as the Mittelstand was even a thing in the electoral environment of late-twenties Germany, it was fractured beyond repair in 1928, opening the door for the NSDAP.

 

[innonimatu]

The so called "bail-out" is moribund anyway. It is yesterday's news. Whatever happens the only certain thing is that it will be cancelled.

By now i guess with all the reductions in wages, Greece might as well default on its own, on ALL debt, and then have a surplus. Don't see any other way out, and it should have done it the Iceland way from the start.

I told you so.

AFAIK only the communist one.

Why am I not surprised that the only realism left in the country is with the communists?

What amazes me though is the extent in which some people in the rest of the EU can be cruel towards this country. I think you have not realized what is going on. I doubt Germany would still exist if it was forced to cut wages and raise taxes in similar fashion; i am sure the far-right there would get 40% again in such an event...

I told you so also. Greece has been singled out as a scapegoat for what is an european-wide failure of social and economic policies. The problems that caused the collapse of the greek economy are present in many other countries and are not going away, but political classes who were (are) in power in every country are playing the pretend and postpone game in the hope of having some other country pulling a "miracle" where the problems get fixed and the same people remain in control, thus providing a nice blueprint for them to follow...

I still can't wrap my head around Syriza's position. They want to stay in the Eurozone, but also reject any organized form to repay the debt or default?

Yeah, the greek political class in power wants miracles too. Did you expect them to be different from the others?

 

[Traitorfish]

I told you so.

...

Why am I not surprised[...]?

...

I told you so also.

You're quite enjoying this, aren't you?

 

[innonimatu]

You're quite enjoying this, aren't you?

No, not really. I'm actually angry and frustrated. Especially knowing that my country is undoubtedly the "next Greece", and that only the collapse of Spain - possibly only next year - will break the Euro and the EU once and for all. Greece - and probably Portugal too - will have to exit in advance of that breakup. It will be an interesting opportunity to change some obscenely wrong things around here, but it also has the potential to go very wrong - as the greeks have shown by voting a nazi party (in greece - where the real nazis invaded and pillaged the place and massacred greeks left and right!) into their parliament!!! Voters can be, unfortunately, quite stupid and unaware of their own best interests, both in "happy times" and in times of crisis.

Fortunately we just don't have that kind of nazi scum around here. But we do have a media controlled by a few wealthy families who kind of "own" the country, and toppling them will require drastic measures to deprive them from their propaganda tools right at the start. I actually want a military coup here, because no other group can move with the required force to topple that wealthy oligarchy. We had that happen back in 1974 (only to let the thieving bastards return during the "liberalization" after entering the EU during the late 80s/90s now you know the major reason I've hated the EU for so long) but they're not stupid enough get the military angry again, I think. They've been very careful to reduce their number and keep paying them. But if the money runs out, who knows, one can hope... the damn "owners" of the country are already draining the state and the "bailout funds" for everything they can get to keep their banks afloat. Greed may yet be their undoing.

edit: lest I give the wrong idea, I better warn that Portugal is still much more stable than Greece at this point, and that for the near future I still expect Greece to be forced out of the EU (by circumstances, not by the other members) alone to start with. Whether the financial fallout from that exit will lead in the short term to an exit by Portugal, and to breaking also Spain (and the Euro, finally) is dubious. The postponement game is likely to go on for a few more months.

 

[kronic]

Are these Golden Dawn people really nazis though? Everyone says so, but what are their actual policy ideas? Being nationalists and xenophobs doesn't make them nazis per se.

 

[innonimatu]

Are these Golden Dawn people really nazis though? Everyone says so, but what are their actual policy ideas? Being nationalists and xenophobs doesn't make them nazis per se.

Nazi salute? check.

Swastika-inspired symbol? check.

Yeah, I'd say they're nazis, as nazi as they can be not being bloody germans! Which is to say, schizophrenics, on top of idiots.

 

[kramerfan86]

Are these Golden Dawn people really nazis though? Everyone says so, but what are their actual policy ideas? Being nationalists and xenophobs doesn't make them nazis per se.

Their leader doing hitler salutes though suggests that he personally is sympathetic with actual Nazi ideals, regardless of what softer version he puts forth as the party position.

 

[kronic]

Ah, I must have missed the salutes and symbols then.

 

[innonimatu]

The greek results also go to show that the european left wing parties have a terrible blind spot on the issue of immigration. Immigration has been used as a tool for reducing the negotiating power of salaried workers, and has disproportionately affected the lowest-paid of these workers, as the higher paid ones are usually working on professions protected by some kind of "required qualifications" or where "social networking" at certain universities (for example) are requirements to get the job. Thus it's the poorer (but most numerous) classes that get angry at immigration in times of crisis, and justifiably so.

Left-wing parties should have acknowledged this as a problem and proposed solutions that made it clear that immigration could not be used to depress wages, instead of clinging to the principles about internationalism or whatever and being afraid to acknowledge a problem there. That's nice but it doesn't win elections. If necessary and for lack of getting anything better through, take that which the right has been used as its sole "populist" agenda item, quotas for immigrants and being "though on crime" about petty crime (bankers get a free pass from the right, always) in poor areas, and run with it. Deprive them of that weapon. And don't let the filthy neo-nazis turn anger about immigration into hate against immigrants.

 

[Kyriakos]

Well Golden Dawn did not exist either, until some years ago, or was getting percentages like 0,1% in the elections. Point being that extreme times can alter the balances of a nation. Syriza is a similar case, being radical leftist, and extremely pro-immigration, although now it changed its rhetoric somewhat to claim that it wants the (illegal) immigrants out of the country because they themselves want to go to other eu countries ( ). Golden dawn filled the vacuum of actual analogous activism from the opposite side.

But in the likely case of a new election i can see people disillusioned with golden dawn, since their antics already begun. I see them either not entering the Boule in the next election, or entering with considerably less power than their current 7% grants them.

 

[innonimatu]

Now there is a problem, since due to the complicated proportional law the seats in the parliament are as follows:

ND: 102 (over 1/3 of the Boule)

Syriza: 52

Pasok: 41

Independent Greeks : 33

Communist party: 26

Golden dawn: 21

Democratic left 19.

Hey, wait, proportional my ass: I just read that ND got 50 "bonus" representatives just for being the most voted party! wtf? Who came up with that system?

 

[Kyriakos]

Is a ND/Pasok original. Basically after 1989, and the grand coalition government which happened because no one had 151 seats, the laws changed rapidly to allow for ever more bonuses for the first party.

 

[innonimatu]

Is a ND/Pasok original. Basically after 1989, and the grand coalition government which happened because no one had 151 seats, the laws changed rapidly to allow for ever more bonuses for the first party.

I never cease being amazed at the things parties can get away with. So that's why they still had such a large majority despite their electoral collapse in this election.

But they must really have cursed that idea during this campaign when Syriza came close to being the most voted!

 

[Winner]

In the case of Belgium, the media has been quite successful at propagating this view that all Greeks work 30 hours a week, retire at 55, never pay their taxes, but still expect a gigantic welfare state. For some reason or another some people actually believe it, and they think that the Greeks are now getting what they had coming.

I find it a quite disturbing trend, personally.

Same here, to the letter. Which makes me wonder how much of that is true. I mean, I know it is exaggerated, but there is a real basis to it.

No, not really. I'm actually angry and frustrated. Especially knowing that my country is undoubtedly the "next Greece", and that only the collapse of Spain - possibly only next year - will break the Euro and the EU once and for all.

Ah, southern Europeans, they always had an over-elevated sense of their own importance. In this case, Germany will ditch southern Europe for good (Portugal, Spain, Greece, and maybe Italy as well) and form an EU(-) with the more productive and less debt-ridden countries in the north of the continent.

Spoiler :

Or invade Russia. Or both.