Let's have a vote: Should the West intervene in Syria?

See the thread title.


  • Total voters
    119
OK.

Let's begin with a cursory examination of the claim that only humanitarian intervention was tried in the Congo.

With active support from Uganda, Rwanda, and Angola, the rebel forces of Laurent-Désiré Kabila moved methodically down the Congo River, encountering only light resistance from the poorly trained, ill-disciplined forces of Mobutu's crumbling regime. The bulk of Kabila's fighters were Tutsis, and many were veterans of various conflicts in the Great Lakes region of Africa.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Congo_War
 
There is a difference between actions which may or may not result in positive outcomes - military action - and results that have never resulted in a positive outcome. One might as well argue that religions are true despite no attempt to prove his existence ever working by citing specific instances of scientific experiments not working.

Indeed.

It annoys me so much when people use "negative proving" like that. If you want to make an argument that is valid, and thus unbiased, prove all or substantially all positive and negative outcomes, and then show that the negatives are more often or weighty than the positives.
 
OK.

Let's begin with a cursory examination of the claim that only humanitarian intervention was tried in the Congo.



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Congo_War
Kabila had less much support from the various unsavoury regimes in Central Africa as the Syrian rebels have from the Saudis. Also, this does not address the central claim made by Dachs, which is that humanitarian aid with no military component is never successful in ending conflict. That Kabila actually had some outside support - mostly mercenaries - is irrelevant to the fact that humanitarian aid did absolutely nothing to end the conflict. Which is still ongoing, I might add.

Giving refugees and others affected by war food and medical supplies is all well and good, and there are few that would argue against the morality of such actions. But unless the underlying issues are solved, whether it be militarily or diplomatically, all you are doing is helping people get shot on a full stomach. Humanitarian aid provides merely a palliative, whereas large-scale military or diplomatic actions can provide cures.
 
It seems that just 67% of those who voted here are against the bombing of Syria by Obama. I guess the bombing can happen then :thumbsup: Cool Democracy, Bro :nuke:
Just heard on the Today Show that an NBC poll shows that 90% of Americans are opposed to military intervention.
 
Try solving the Syrian problem solely with humanitarian aid money and no military element. You'll get this nightmare. Or maybe this one.

If you think the US and its regional "partners" in Africa had nothing but "humanitarian" participation in the conflicts in thr Congo (diamonds, et al) or Darfur (oil), then I weep for your naivete.

The last African conflict to be resolved favorably through combat was Angola -- because the foreign combatants were badass Cuban volunteers!

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Just heard on the Today Show that an NBC poll shows that 90% of Americans are opposed to military intervention.

I saw similar numbers too in some articles hosted online. That is a good development on the part of the American public.
I still am not sure if it will be enough to deter TPTB though.
 
I saw similar numbers too in some articles hosted online. That is a good development on the part of the American public.
I still am not sure if it will be enough to deter TPTB though.

It will not. The US is stalling, like it did with Iraq, to keep you focused on chemical versus no chemical, while it gets its "boots" on the ground and in place to produce their desired result once they depose Assad.

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^Yeah, that is my guess too. It still sucks that this is the norm given the public apathy- which still exists to some degree, just not as much as before.
 
Despite the polls and such, I really expect congress to flip flop here at the last minute to approve it. Democrats will bend because their parties leaders will bully them and they dont have the fortitude to have independent thought and some of the republicans will bend because the Pro-Israel lobby is supposedly going to do a major blitz on this. Both will do enough to get stupid US politicians to shift their views, the people will be ignored as usual. And then if it does set off wider regional problems we'll be forced to increase involvement.
 
Kabila had less much support from the various unsavoury regimes in Central Africa as the Syrian rebels have from the Saudis. Also, this does not address the central claim made by Dachs, which is that humanitarian aid with no military component is never successful in ending conflict. That Kabila actually had some outside support - mostly mercenaries - is irrelevant to the fact that humanitarian aid did absolutely nothing to end the conflict. Which is still ongoing, I might add.
Okaaay!

The Zimbabwean government sent troops to assist Kabila in 1998.[18] President Robert Mugabe was the most ardent supporter of intervention on Kabila's behalf. Zimbabwe was the only country involved in the conflict with a modern and experienced air force. It and the Zimbabwe National Army special forces—which included the Zim Commandos and Paras as well as the Special Air Service—all played a crucial role in securing Kinshasa as well as repulsing rebel troops who had reached the outskirts of the capital. Zimbabwean warplanes played a major role in the destruction of enemy columns that were about to enter the capital.

Just how much humanitarian aid has been applied in the Congo? I'm curious. And I can't seem to find any information on the subject.

Giving refugees and others affected by war food and medical supplies is all well and good, and there are few that would argue against the morality of such actions. But unless the underlying issues are solved, whether it be militarily or diplomatically, all you are doing is helping people get shot on a full stomach. Humanitarian aid provides merely a palliative, whereas large-scale military or diplomatic actions can provide cures.

Yes indeed. But unless the underlying issues are resolved, military action won't provide you with a solution either, I think. (Why you use the word cure here is interesting.)

I would, incidentally, include diplomatic action under a humanitarian intervention. It would be foolish not to attempt it, wouldn't it?

It will not. The US is stalling, like it did with Iraq, to keep you focused on chemical versus no chemical, while it gets its "boots" on the ground and in place to produce their desired result once they depose Assad.

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Despite reassurances that no boots will be on the ground?

But I must say I think just weakening Assad is only going to make him even more ruthless. And I fear that's going to be the only result of any proposed intervention. I honestly can't see the American public accepting yet another Iraq or Afghanistan. Nor do I think the US could afford it.

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OK.

Let's begin with a cursory examination of the claim that only humanitarian intervention was tried in the Congo.
That's a...uniquely poor effort at supporting your claim.

First of all, your quoted segment describes the First Congo War, in which Rwanda, Uganda, Angola, their other allies, and Kabila's extemporized "rebel" forces brought down the decrepit Mobutu regime. (The second war was an entirely different fiasco.) This war was relatively quick; Mobutu's armies were pretty much overwhelmed and lacked interest in fighting. Despite a last-ditch French effort to shore up the Mobutu regime with a mercenary force, Angolan and Rwandan forces seized Kinshasa and forced Mobutu to flee the country, ending the war.

During the war, Rwandan forces were supported in small ways by the American government. USAF cargo planes gave logistical support to the advancing Rwandan mechanized spearheads, which otherwise would probably have stalled out fairly early. But all indications are that the Americans did not actually get anything concrete out of this assistance. There were no mineral concessions of any size to a company that could be called 'American', except to a holding company briefly formed in Arkansas by an African refugee as a tax haven, and who promptly liquidated his holdings by selling the stakes he acquired from the Kabila and RPA governments to larger interests like De Beers.

By and large, the Clinton administration appears to have been motivated by less sexy motivations. One was guilt: the failure to intervene against the Hutu Power regime in 1994 charged American policymakers with an almost unconditional approval of RPA policy, in an attempt to wash away the West's sins. (These were sins of omission, not commission, but so too had been failing to prevent the Holocaust.) Another was the former relationship between Mobutu and the American government, which in the 1970s and 1980s had gotten lambasted in domestic press for openly backing a tyrant purely as a pawn move in the Cold War. The Clinton administration wanted to expunge the Mobutu embarrassment by giving token support to a 'broad-based coalition' of African nations that conveniently already existed. (Much like the Russians accidentally created an anti-Ottoman league in the Balkans to kick off the First Balkan War in 1912, Julius Nyerere accidentally brought the anti-Mobutu coalition together as part of one of his efforts to play African Elder Statesman. As the Russians had thought to use the league offensively against Austria-Hungary as an aggregation to Russian military power, Nyerere saw his initiative as part of strengthening Great Lakes regional ties and insuring that Uganda, Burundi, and Rwanda were all forced to rely on Dar es Salaam for support. As he did so many other times in his career, Nyerere miscalculated, and badly.)

Moving on. The Rwandan-led anti-Mobutu campaign had initially been strongly motivated by Mobutu's efforts to keep control of his eastern provinces, the Kivus. Following the Zairian political reforms of the early 1990s, Mobutu lacked the power to keep order in the Kivus himself, and merely contented himself with keeping all of the regional power interests weak enough to come to him for support and legitimation. When Paul Kagame's RPA crushed the Hutu Power regime in Rwanda in 1994, the already unstable mixture in the Kivus gained a new element, as former génocidaires fled to the region as refugees - along with hundreds of thousands (as many as two million) Hutu and Tutsi that had survived under the Habyarimana regime.

The RPA was already engaged in "quiet" killings in Rwanda itself. Soldiers enraged by their long exile in Uganda and by the horrors visited upon fellow Tutsi slaughtered Hutu and non-returnee Tutsi alike. The Hutu, obviously, were targets regardless of whether they had backed Hutu Power; many Tutsi who had lived under the regime were branded as collaborators and killed all the same. The magnitude of these killings was a very far cry from the disaster of 1994, but they were still there, if anyone cared to look. (The UN suppressed a report on the widespread RPA killings in 1995-96, and most Western media outlets, insofar as they reported on the atrocities at all, repeated the RPA official line that they were the work of génocidaires, not the heroic RPA. This picture was complicated by the fact that some génocidaires really were crossing the border to commit atrocities in Rwanda, then returning to Mobutu-guaranteed safety in Zaire.)

Mobutu supported the former Interahamwe goons in the Kivus because their very presence made the other elements of the Kivu political mixture less powerful and less able to take over the region for themselves. Furthermore, he assumed that he had French backing (correctly) and American backing (incorrectly), and thought that those two states would protect him from anything the Rwandans could possibly do. Then came the Rwandan invasion, and all that calculus was proved incorrect.

Rwanda saw the new Kabila government as, effectively, a puppet of Kigali. Kabila had lacked any support whatsoever before the RPF invaded the Kivus; he had not even been in the country, and was called in after the invasion started to provide a threadbare justification for the invasion as a "local grassroots alternative political solution" to the grand old man in Léopoldville. He relied, in the immediate aftermath of Mobutu's fall in 1997, on the RPF to keep control, especially in the eastern provinces. And the RPF continued to carry out its anti-Hutu campaign, frequently attacking refugee camps under the observation of NGOs and slaughtering their inhabitants. MSF was the first to give up on the Kivus in disgust, angry about the lack of protection for the camps, with many workers feeling as though all their work was pointless when Kagame's and Kabarebe's thugs might show up one afternoon and massacre all the people they were trying to help.

The reason for the Kigali-Kinshasa split that led to the Second Congo War is somewhat obscure still. Some people blame Kabila entirely, arguing he wanted to strike out on his own regardless of the cost; others claim that the RPA and President Museveni of Uganda had heard rumblings of discontent and wanted to strike first to replace Kabila with the theoretically more pliant Kabarebe. There were other concerns, too, such as Uganda's efforts to make war feed war (and, later, to make war feed the national economy) and friction over Angola's efforts to wipe out UNITA (which was forced to fall back on bases inside the Congo as Angolan forces methodically wiped out UNITA bases within Angola itself).

Those concerns are secondary, however. The main point is that, when the Second Congo War started, the RPA continued to carry out its anti-génocidaire campaign - a campaign that even if partially justifiable still unforgivably claimed the lives of thousands upon thousands of refugees and condemned millions more to starvation. Of course, other forces in the Congo were responsible for atrocities, too. Kabila and his son could barely keep control of their armed forces (although they did a better job of it than Mobutu had). Equateur became a new and bloody locus of struggle in the second war with the rise of new local warlords, and civilians were caught in the crossfire. And Ugandan depredations, although they were not nearly so coherent as Rwandan ones, were just as bad from a humanitarian point of view.

Nobody in Africa was able to rein in these marauding armies. The African Union is and was a paper tiger (more like a paper chimpanzee, because it barely even pretends to be anything other than useless). South African-exerted economic pressure did a decent job of forcing the combatants into the Sun City accords in 2002-03 (although Kabila's death and the Bush administration's expressed disapproval off the ongoing fighting played a role as well). But the Sun City agreement, even though it was a remarkable success in that it basically ended the regular fighting, did nothing to halt the irregular fighting in the eastern Congo. Nothing since 2002 really has, although many observers chose to mark the end of the conflict with Joseph Kabila's political reforms in 2007. The creation of MONUC and its effective administration by Bill Swing, combined with those reforms, did more to alleviate the humanitarian crisis than anything before it, but even those solutions were basically Band-Aids - nothing lasting.

So your mention of the RPF, Ugandan army, etc. was kind of funny. Those forces were not intervening on behalf of those concerned about the humanitarian disaster in the Congo. They were, in significant part, causing it. The West sent billions of dollars in aid to the dozens of NGOs working in the Eastern Congo, but because those NGOs were maintaining camps that were virtually impossible to police and control without the assistance of peacekeepers or regular military forces, gobs of that money went to financing and sustaining the exiled Interahamwe die-hards and the génocidaires. And because the West failed to protect those camps in any way, even more of that money disappeared as though it had been thrown down a rathole when the refugees that had been the recipients of that aid were massacred by the forces involved in the war.

That's the point I'm trying to make. Humanitarian aid is one of the most laudable things that people can contribute to. But all the aid in the world doesn't make a lick of difference in the face of armies. You don't just have to deal with poverty, displacement, and the collapse of social networks in these civil wars. You have to deal with the war, too. By and large, the educated West thought that humanitarian aid by itself was enough to deal with the Congo wars and with Darfur. And because of that attitude, people kept dying in droves. Humanitarian aid must be combined with meaningful political and/or military initiatives in order to have any effect at all.
If you think the US and its regional "partners" in Africa had nothing but "humanitarian" participation in the conflicts in thr Congo (diamonds, et al) or Darfur (oil), then I weep for your naivete.

The last African conflict to be resolved favorably through combat was Angola -- because the foreign combatants were badass Cuban volunteers!

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Who's more naïve - the person who insists on a trite, doctrinaire "the capitalist-imperialist We$t is the source of all global problems" narrative, or the one who can actually be assed to read the work of relatively ideologically untainted academics?

The United States got essentially zero mineral benefit from the Congo wars. Again, the only connection during the Clinton administration was so tenuous as to be nonexistent. The only American firm to make any money off of mining concessions in the Congo employed no actual Americans, made its money by immediately selling those concessions to companies like De Beers that could actually use them, and was merely incorporated in Arkansas for convenience and tax purposes. But at least there's a concrete, solid bit of evidence that the US government supported Rwanda, at least quietly, during the First Congo War.

The Bush administration's policy was almost the exact opposite. Starting in 2001-02, the State Department started sending signals that it was tired of Rwanda's and Kabila's prolongation of the fighting, and sick of the excuses both sides were making. America would stop legitimizing the ongoing bloodshed and start making noises about a peaceful resolution. (These were only noises; sub-Saharan Africa very much took a back seat to Bush's War on Terror. But moral and ideological support remained important, even when unconnected to aid dollars.) Kabila's death removed one obstacle, but Rwanda didn't really stop until more American pressure was brought to bear. The remarkable thing about that pressure is that it came at the moment when the RPF had begun a major new offensive designed to change the calculus of the war. Before, it had focused largely on the Congo River valley itself, and on attempting to retake Kinshasa to put replace Kabarebe with Kabila.

But in 2001, Kagame and the other RPF leaders decided that Rwanda had to prepare for the long haul, and initiated an offensive to the south, to seize the mineral wealth of Katanga and improve Rwanda's financial situation. (The increasing tension between Uganda and Rwanda, which had bizarrely broken out into open violence, also played a role. Rwanda's usual cash cows in the Kivus were under threat from Ugandan forces and could no longer be relied upon.) Kabila's troops had completely failed to prepare for this eventuality, and the RPF swept them aside. But Rwanda halted the offensive anyway, under South African and American pressure. Had the Americans been after mineral resources, would they not simply have continued the Clinton-era policy of backing Rwanda, thereby gaining Katanga's wealth with hardly any effort at all?

And if the Americans are so concerned about oil concessions in Darfur, why aren't they doing anything about it? Violence is dangerous, destabilizing, and bad for the continued profitable operation of any facility. Surely American oil concessions in Darfur - supposing that they actually existed, and they don't - would be accompanied by an American military intervention, or at least an economic one. But the US State Department couldn't care less about Darfur. When the violence flared up again over the last year or so, where were the Americans?

Never mind, of course, that the Angolan Civil War was won not by the Cubans, but by the MPLA itself. (The vaunted Cuban intervention failed to do much more than wasting Cuban blood and treasure; UNITA remained a powerful force largely on a par with the MPLA-PT into the late 1990s, which is why the Lusaka Protocols happened.) And it did so largely because Savimbi and UNITA were abandoned by their usual backers (especially, of course, the USA and South Africa) as "embarrassing Cold War relics". Backing away from Savimbi was, as far as the Clinton administration was concerned, all part of the same policy as backing away from Mobutu. The MPLA saw its way free to ensuring total victory, tore up the Lusaka accords, and launched an all-out sneak attack on UNITA. Thousands of Ovimbundu were massacred, and Savimbi - who was certainly a disgusting figure responsible for atrocities and the deaths of thousands, but his opponents were just as bad, and at least he did a slightly better job of staying within the peace accords - was driven into exile and then killed.

There was nothing 'favorable' about the end of the Angolan civil war in 2002 other than the fact that it was finally over. If it had ended with the 1994 cease-fire, one might have reasonably called it something of a success - although obviously it would've been better for the war to not have happened at all - but the bloody and scurrilous way that it actually ended did nobody any favors.

Of course, the only reason you think that the end of the Angolan war was a success and all others failures is because the MPLA eventually won, and since the MPLA is a vaguely communist-ish organization it gets an automatic stamp of approval from you. That's not really naïveté; it's more like willful delusion.
 
Question, if we do get involved and all of our goals are pretty much practically achieved in the end quickly and decisively, will anyone here agree to eat their hats here?
 
Question, if we do get involved and all of our goals are pretty much practically achieved in the end quickly and decisively, will anyone here agree to eat their hats here?
I've made the offer before. The problem is that I don't think anyone here doubts that the US could quickly overrun Syria if it wanted to. The question is whether the situation in Syria can remain stable and secure after America imposes that stability from the outside. Thus far, in Iraq and Afghanistan most recently, but even in places like Iran, Africa - as Dachs mentions in great detail above - and East Asia the US has singularly and spectacularly failed to maintain that stability in the long-term. There's no point eating one's hat just because Obama stands in front of a banner with "Mission Accomplished" on it.
 
Jeez, Dachs, if you think that the American government only works for American corporate interests, or if you that that social-climbing son of single-mother-numbers-runner Clinton (my work supervisor c.1989 - 1991 was neighbors with the Clintons) -- who married into an old money family -- was motivated by guilt, then I weep for your naivete.

I also don't think any one nation is the source of evil. The US is simply the current head of the reactionary forces of the world.

I am a class warrior, and practitioner of what I believe, not some single-minded automaton spouting Party line. Although I am quite adept at that, too. This is not a WH exercise in Monday morning history quarterbacking. (Actually, it's a game forum). Real lives are lost everyday from the same system that creates immense wealth for a select few, while African children pick through discarded electronics to recycle component and radioactive material who will likely not see a 23rd birthday. A system that has created a climate wher ten times as many deaths occur as a result of heat than all other natural disasters COMBINED. I have been dealing with this a lot this past summer.

And don't tell my Cuban Communist Angolan War veteran friends that Cuban blood was wasted. The Angolan War was not just about Angola, it was also about beginning to nail the lid on the coffin of Apartheid -- something those veterans are proud to have been a part of.

Leaders are readers. Not the other way around.

Make history, don't be history.

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You heard it here first, folks; it is impossible for heads-of-state and world leaders to ever do anything out of simple human emotion.
 
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