Or, the obvious explanation: the sum of state polls should be the national polls, and if Romney is consistently matching Obama in the national poll but losing the state polls, he must have massive support in the deep red states. Going from +25 to +35 in places like Wyoming-Utah-Oklahoma and the Gulf Coast.
Let's Make a CFC-OT US Presidential Election Map 2012!
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AlpsStranger
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Right, I mentioned that in the edit. Sorry about that.
Or maybe Romney is heading into a landslide?
Seriously though, according to Nate's model Romney is not ahead in the national popular vote. Why?
EDIT: I know I promised myself I'd leave it be, but it's like a thorn in my butt. I just can't stop thinking about it. I would almost be less crazy if a Romney win was a sure thing.
EDIT2: Even Big Red (a.k.a. Real Clear Politics) is only giving Romney +1 in the popular vote. I'm seriously wondering what the deal with Gallup and Rasmussen is.
Or maybe Romney is heading into a landslide?
Seriously though, according to Nate's model Romney is not ahead in the national popular vote. Why?
EDIT: I know I promised myself I'd leave it be, but it's like a thorn in my butt. I just can't stop thinking about it. I would almost be less crazy if a Romney win was a sure thing.
EDIT2: Even Big Red (a.k.a. Real Clear Politics) is only giving Romney +1 in the popular vote. I'm seriously wondering what the deal with Gallup and Rasmussen is.
AlpsStranger
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It's not even about who wins the presidency for me anymore. I've made my peace with that, come what may.
I'm talking about my quest to figure out who is freaking nuts.
Either Nate Silver, most of Intrade, a dozen other Intrade-like sites, and Sam Wang are all dead wrong, or two fairly respected national polling organizations ( Gallup and Rasmussen ) have gone off the deep end.
If Obama ends up winning then Gallup is full of <expletive deleted>, period. Nobody is down by five freaking points this close to election day and wins.
I'm talking about my quest to figure out who is freaking nuts.
Either Nate Silver, most of Intrade, a dozen other Intrade-like sites, and Sam Wang are all dead wrong, or two fairly respected national polling organizations ( Gallup and Rasmussen ) have gone off the deep end.
If Obama ends up winning then Gallup is full of <expletive deleted>, period. Nobody is down by five freaking points this close to election day and wins.
AlpsStranger
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Hah, nice.
EDIT: Jesus, Gallup aside, the RCP "No Toss Ups" map looks like a David Axelrod wet dream. And RCP ain't exactly the NYT, if you know what I mean.
I dunno. I guess we really could be looking at a huge divergence between the popular vote and the EC. If that's the case, I really do think the EC might get the axe in our lifetimes, since its chief defenders ( conservatives ) will have just been smacked down mightily by it.
EDIT: Sam Wang, Nate's rival, is actually even more certain that Obama will win.
He's got Obama's odds >80%
EDIT: Jesus, Gallup aside, the RCP "No Toss Ups" map looks like a David Axelrod wet dream. And RCP ain't exactly the NYT, if you know what I mean.
I dunno. I guess we really could be looking at a huge divergence between the popular vote and the EC. If that's the case, I really do think the EC might get the axe in our lifetimes, since its chief defenders ( conservatives ) will have just been smacked down mightily by it.
EDIT: Sam Wang, Nate's rival, is actually even more certain that Obama will win.
He's got Obama's odds >80%
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Truman won being down this far in the Gallup poll, but we still got a little over a week. We can see a shift either way.
Folks are using different turnout models. The fundamentals for 2008 and 2010 were so far apart.
Gallup is obviously reporting that the intensity level is much higher for the GOP, plus, polls are showing the Obama has lost badly with independents. Somewhere around 280-290 for Romney is looking reasonable.
If that intensity gap does not manifest, Obama wins.
edit: I really wouldn't be shocked to see either of these guys come up to 330 or more. We have all bought the idea that this race has to be close. It doesn't have to.
Folks are using different turnout models. The fundamentals for 2008 and 2010 were so far apart.
Gallup is obviously reporting that the intensity level is much higher for the GOP, plus, polls are showing the Obama has lost badly with independents. Somewhere around 280-290 for Romney is looking reasonable.
If that intensity gap does not manifest, Obama wins.
edit: I really wouldn't be shocked to see either of these guys come up to 330 or more. We have all bought the idea that this race has to be close. It doesn't have to.
AlpsStranger
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It may not be close, but it's certainly unpredictable.
It's like a Möbius dog-taking-a-dump. I want to stop noticing it, but I can't, and it seems to go on forever.
It's like a Möbius dog-taking-a-dump. I want to stop noticing it, but I can't, and it seems to go on forever.
Do you really want me to list the different ways in how the Dewey analog is Romney and the Truman analog is Obama?
AlpsStranger
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Honestly, if I didn't think Romney was more likely to start ramping up for two or three more wars I'd be almost indifferent. I know that saying this will instantly summon GhostWriter
but I still really worry that, if Romney manages to win, we're going to open up several more fronts.
Yeah, Obama didn't handle things very well. That's still a far cry from boots on the ground in Iran.
EDIT: Someone on Daily Kos has a theory about Gallup. I'm not sure it's any more than a liberal version of www.unskewedpolls.com, but I wanted to see if anyone had an opinion.
I am well aware that Daily Kos is a blatant liberal bastion, so I don't expect anyone to take it uncritically. I'm just throwing this out here for discussion.
Here is the post.
Is it possible that Gallup's LV screen is too "tight" and knocks out a lot of young/transient LVs?
Is a delusional ultraliberal DailyKos poster just grasping at straws?
but I still really worry that, if Romney manages to win, we're going to open up several more fronts.Yeah, Obama didn't handle things very well. That's still a far cry from boots on the ground in Iran.
EDIT: Someone on Daily Kos has a theory about Gallup. I'm not sure it's any more than a liberal version of www.unskewedpolls.com, but I wanted to see if anyone had an opinion.
I am well aware that Daily Kos is a blatant liberal bastion, so I don't expect anyone to take it uncritically. I'm just throwing this out here for discussion.
Here is the post.
Is it possible that Gallup's LV screen is too "tight" and knocks out a lot of young/transient LVs?
Is a delusional ultraliberal DailyKos poster just grasping at straws?
I think they have a point. Even if Gallup's approach to "second-guess" - as the blog puts it - the stated likeliness to vote based on consistency is acceptable, they should at least take the unique situation of first voters into account.
AlpsStranger
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Perhaps it's just my own personal "liberal bias," but that DailyKos post seems to make more sense than its opposites in unskewed country.
FWIW, Romney has gone +0.7->0.9->+1.0->0.9 on RCP's average, and I'm pretty sure they're selectively excluding polls to make him look better. Even then, RCP has Obama winning on their electoral map and their no tossups map. So only the horse race loving news anchors and the Romney campaign itself seem to be discussing "momentum."
I hate to jinx it as an Obama hopeful, but it really does seem like the case for a narrow Obama win is coming into focus. Of course, there is still time. Benghazigate could explode, Obama could shoot himself in the foot in other ways, etc.
FWIW, Romney has gone +0.7->0.9->+1.0->0.9 on RCP's average, and I'm pretty sure they're selectively excluding polls to make him look better. Even then, RCP has Obama winning on their electoral map and their no tossups map. So only the horse race loving news anchors and the Romney campaign itself seem to be discussing "momentum."
I hate to jinx it as an Obama hopeful, but it really does seem like the case for a narrow Obama win is coming into focus. Of course, there is still time. Benghazigate could explode, Obama could shoot himself in the foot in other ways, etc.
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Good Gallup day for Obama. Gains two on approval, disapproval drops one. Romney lost one on likely and registered voters.
Far more likely to end up at war with Iran with Obama. Romney will be strong, Iran will wait until their is another weak democrat. Of course, people wrongly blame Bush for the ongoing wars but it was Clinton that failed to deal with Bin Laden when the problem was relatively manageable. As always, for peace vote for strenght. Vote GOP.
Far more likely to end up at war with Iran with Obama. Romney will be strong, Iran will wait until their is another weak democrat. Of course, people wrongly blame Bush for the ongoing wars but it was Clinton that failed to deal with Bin Laden when the problem was relatively manageable. As always, for peace vote for strenght. Vote GOP.
Cato the Elder
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This last part makes no sense at all. Firstly, Iran in no way thinks it can beat the United States in any kind of war, they're not delusional. And even in the extremely unlikely case that Iran were to attack the United States, any potential president, even if that person were to be Bernie Sanders, would fight back, no doubt about it. You have the most powerful military in the world, this has its effects.
Also, lol @ Bin Laden being Clinton's fault.
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Iran knew that with the US in two wars and Bush facing a reelection that they had a window of opportunity to push the nuclear ball and when a weak Democrat was elected they knew they could roll it with impunity. The sanctions are not going to ever stop them. The rub comes if Obama gets a second term and they think they can bring it home. Weak, passive aggressive people snap, Obama will, and there will be hell to pay.
On the other hand, Romney wins and launches a limited largely symbolic strike and Iran then puts their toys away until another Democrat is on the horizon. The mullahs aren't stupid.
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The race for the White House continues to be too close to call in Ohio, according to a new Cincinnati Enquirer/Ohio News Organization Poll that shows President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney each with 49 percent support from likely voters.
That's a slip for the president, who took 51 percent of likely voters in the newspaper group's September poll.
Romney's support grew among males, among high school and college graduates and among respondents in every age category except 18 to 29.
http://www.13wmaz.com/news/topstori...io-Poll-Romney-Obama-Tied-Among-Likely-Voters
The irony of this is that Romney is the candidate who is trying to restore fiscal responsibility so that these 18-28 year olds will not be consigned to life long debt servitude. Young people should look at Japan and the impossible burden that coming generations are being asked to shoulder.
Of course at some point such unsound constructs collapse.
At any rate, it looks more likely that Iowa and Ohio are going to fall to Romney. There is still rightward momentum in this race. And:
The most recent Rasmussen Reports poll shows Romney besting Obama by 13 points, 52 percent to 39 percent, among unaffiliated voters.
And finally, a literal sign of a lost campaign:
http://www.wishtv.com/dpp/news/crime/church-sign-defaced-with-anti-romney-message
That's a slip for the president, who took 51 percent of likely voters in the newspaper group's September poll.
Romney's support grew among males, among high school and college graduates and among respondents in every age category except 18 to 29.
http://www.13wmaz.com/news/topstori...io-Poll-Romney-Obama-Tied-Among-Likely-Voters
The irony of this is that Romney is the candidate who is trying to restore fiscal responsibility so that these 18-28 year olds will not be consigned to life long debt servitude. Young people should look at Japan and the impossible burden that coming generations are being asked to shoulder.
Of course at some point such unsound constructs collapse.
At any rate, it looks more likely that Iowa and Ohio are going to fall to Romney. There is still rightward momentum in this race. And:
The most recent Rasmussen Reports poll shows Romney besting Obama by 13 points, 52 percent to 39 percent, among unaffiliated voters.
And finally, a literal sign of a lost campaign:
http://www.wishtv.com/dpp/news/crime/church-sign-defaced-with-anti-romney-message
Dreadnought
Deity
My personal map can be found here.
I've taken out all the "Likely" categories and instead base it purely on how things seem now, with ten days left. The "Leaners" are still in the air but most probably will go to the candidate they are leaning towards. The rest are in the air.
This map puts Obama at 237 and Romney at 235.
We can continue to monitor the state by state polls as they come in. If I had to guess, the state by state polls will begin falling into line with the national polls soon enough. We shall see.
I've taken out all the "Likely" categories and instead base it purely on how things seem now, with ten days left. The "Leaners" are still in the air but most probably will go to the candidate they are leaning towards. The rest are in the air.
This map puts Obama at 237 and Romney at 235.
We can continue to monitor the state by state polls as they come in. If I had to guess, the state by state polls will begin falling into line with the national polls soon enough. We shall see.
AlpsStranger
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Rasmussen has Romney up by 2 in Ohio.
My Ohio prediction? Gallup and Rasmussen will have Romney up by 3 or 4, other polls will stay the same or move to Obama.
It's clear now that Rasmussen and Gallup are looking at an entirely different election than other polling firms. The only question is, who is looking at the real election?
My Ohio prediction? Gallup and Rasmussen will have Romney up by 3 or 4, other polls will stay the same or move to Obama.
It's clear now that Rasmussen and Gallup are looking at an entirely different election than other polling firms. The only question is, who is looking at the real election?
GhostWriter16
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Romney will win NY because of Sandy!
