Mueller's Report

[Lexicus]

almost all knowledgeable commentators have for a long time been saying that the real danger for Trump is from his financial entanglements, which were outside the scope of the Mueller investigation.

This only goes to show that "knowledgeable commentators" are fooling themselves. The danger to Trump is the unpopularity of his party and his platform. He can be beaten in the 2020 election. He cannot be removed from office before then because he could be on video shooting someone on 5th Avenue and the Republicans in the Senate wouldn't vote to convict him (edit: heh, didn't notice Tim said basically the same thing). That's IMO the end of the discussion of impeachment.

The only viable political move here is to destroy the senate Republicans. Impeach Trump, forcing the Senate to hold a trial. Present the evidence, which is compelling. Force senate Republicans into the untenable choice...vote to convict and alienate the 80% of their own party who just flatly doesn't care about the rule of law and wants to let Trump shoot Democrats on Fifth Avenue, or clearly demonstrate to 70% of the voting public that they and their party are so badly corrupted that they need to be removed from all access to power.

Nixon resigned to protect the party from the consequences of facing that no win choice. Trump will never put the party ahead of himself, so this is the opportunity to destroy the GOP once and for all. It can't be passed up.

I disagree. Too much of the voting public will see a failed impeachment as a partisan attempt to attack the President on spurious grounds.

 

[onejayhawk]

Conspiracy was the moral crime. And it was certainly enough of a problem that laws should be changed. Good luck in partisan alley, because to change the law would admit that the Trump campaign did something that legislators disapprove of.

The crime that was committed was obstruction. There are numerous instances of underlings refusing to follow orders, because they would have been illegal. Which is good, because on the campaign trail Trump promised that underlings would follow illegal orders

If conspiracy is not a crime, then there can be no obstruction. The 4th Amendment bars unreasonable searches. Without a crime, there is no legitimate search, so no obstruction. Hence Barr wanting to round up those who so trampled the Constitution.

Too much of the voting public will see a failed impeachment as a partisan attempt to attack the President on spurious grounds.

How is it not both spurious and partisan?

J

 

[rah]

I disagree. Too much of the voting public will see a failed impeachment as a partisan attempt to attack the President on spurious grounds.

Agreed. Trump is already milking the endless attack narrative and an unsuccessful impeachment would only make it look more valid.

Let it go.

 

[Lexicus]

The problem is that imo, most people will not look at a failed impeachment and conclude "the Republicans are too corrupt to be allowed to retain any power," they will look at a failed impeachment and conclude "the President wasn't convicted so nothing that bad was really going on."

 

[rah]

While I agree, I think there are enough stupid people that will think all the attacks are unfair.
While forgetting that we're still hearing about Hillary's emails despite her being irrelevant for almost two years.

 

[El_Machinae]

The risk from the Russian hack is that Trump has shown little sign of being able to distinguish that it was an attack on the American democracy. It seems to just be evidence that his victory was illegitimate, and so it's in a dissonance box.

The Chinese can easily take advantage of the fact that he's failed to prepare the nation plus, his evil "millions of illegal voters" sowing doubles down on the risks.

 

[Birdjaguar]

If the impeachment process is a steady supply of public hearing between this summer and next summer, it may be persuasive.

 

[Farm Boy]

The risk from the Russian hack is that Trump has shown little sign of being able to distinguish that it was an attack on the American democracy. It seems to just be evidence that his victory was illegitimate, and so it's in a dissonance box.

The Chinese can easily take advantage of the fact that he's failed to prepare the nation plus, his evil "millions of illegal voters" sowing doubles down on the risks.

All the more dangerous with the push to move the voting process to electronics.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

If the impeachment process is a steady supply of public hearing between this summer and next summer, it may be persuasive.

This was how it went with Watergate. By the time the impeachment was brought to a vote in the House there had been so much evidence aired in public that the Senate couldn't have voted not guilty without putting themselves completely and obviously in opposition to the rule of law. Once the house has the full Mueller report and knows what evidence to subpoena, and holds public hearings to have that evidence presented, I expect the senate will be stuck in the same position. I also expect them to vote not guilty anyway, in sufficient numbers to prevent removal from office...for Trump. But that will doom a bunch of them, and Trump's re-election campaign.

 

[rah]

I am not that Optimistic. But it's a nice thought.

 

[Berzerker]

Flynn was charged and pleaded guilty to lying to the FBI about whether he discussed sanctions in a telephone call with then-Russian ambassador to the United States Sergey Kislyak, before Trump became president. Such a communication could have been unlawful if it interfered with American foreign policy.

So, when Trump learned of the lie, he fired Flynn. Yet in his plea negotiations with Mueller, Flynn revealed why he discussed sanctions with Kislyak -- because the pre-presidential Trump asked him to do so. An honest revelation by Trump could have negated Flynn's prosecution. But the revelation never came.

https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/judge-andrew-napolitano-did-president-trump-obstruct-justice

Trump and Flynn deserve each other

 

[hobbsyoyo]

Agreed. Trump is already milking the endless attack narrative and an unsuccessful impeachment would only make it look more valid.

Let it go.

It's hard to let go when he continually flaunts our laws, regulations and norms. At some point, letting it go is just letting him get away with tearing up democracy. It is hard to see a viable way back from where he's taken the body politic and the longer he's in office without any censure allows him to push things that much closer to the edge of full on autocracy.

This was how it went with Watergate. By the time the impeachment was brought to a vote in the House there had been so much evidence aired in public that the Senate couldn't have voted not guilty without putting themselves completely and obviously in opposition to the rule of law. Once the house has the full Mueller report and knows what evidence to subpoena, and holds public hearings to have that evidence presented, I expect the senate will be stuck in the same position. I also expect them to vote not guilty anyway, in sufficient numbers to prevent removal from office...for Trump. But that will doom a bunch of them, and Trump's re-election campaign.

Trump's new tact is to just defy subpoenas and it is working so far. And in hearings, they can run a Brett Kavanaugh defence and just scream (literally, scream) in the House chambers at the Democrats.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

It's hard to let go when he continually flaunts our laws, regulations and norms. At some point, letting it go is just letting him get away with tearing up democracy. It is hard to see a viable way back from where he's taken the body politic and the longer he's in office without any censure allows him to push things that much closer to the edge of full on autocracy.


Trump's new tact is to just defy subpoenas and it is working so far. And in hearings, they can run a Brett Kavanaugh defence and just scream (literally, scream) in the House chambers at the Democrats.

Except the Democrats will be running the hearings. Also, there's a big difference between a subpoena for an appearance and a subpoena for records. Evidence and testimony that Mueller presented to the grand jury is boxed up and waiting to go, and Trump can't stop it.

 

[Berzerker]

get out more popcorn

 

[Camikaze]

This only goes to show that "knowledgeable commentators" are fooling themselves. The danger to Trump is the unpopularity of his party and his platform. He can be beaten in the 2020 election. He cannot be removed from office before then because he could be on video shooting someone on 5th Avenue and the Republicans in the Senate wouldn't vote to convict him (edit: heh, didn't notice Tim said basically the same thing). That's IMO the end of the discussion of impeachment.

I'm talking about criminal risk; political risk has always been independent of the investigations.

In any case, I disagree that the end of the discussion on impeachment is the unwillingness of the Senate to convict. I don't find that unwillingness a persuasive reason for the House to fail to perform its function and not to put the ball in the Senate's court. A lot of the criticism aimed at Congress in recent times has been its fecklessness and complete inability to perform its constitutional oversight function. I don't think it's normatively wise for the House Democrats to abdicate their role because they think it will be politically tricky; indeed, it may even be politically damaging to do so.

 

[Berzerker]

Media is reporting Mueller sent Barr a letter complaining about the mis-characterization of his report. Unless he defies the House Barr is supposed to testify in 2 days. I guess they want him on the record before inviting Mueller to contradict him.

 

[zazazuzu]

The Meuller report is completely irrelevant because the orange piece of horsehocky will always get 35 per cent of the vote, no matter what the report said. All that needs to be done to remove the orange peril is motivating the majority of people to go out and vote. If when handed an opponent like Trump, the Democrats are not able to do that, then we can all reflect on what an amazing country America was, once. And start learning other languages.

 

[Gori the Grey]

One other language will probably suffice.

 

[Birdjaguar]

After Barr's "summary" of the report on March 24, Mueller both called Barr and wrote him a letter saying that he was very dissatisfied with how Barr presented his findings. Barr did nothing in response and continued to misrepresent the findings of the report. Then in April Barr, under oath, told Congress that he was unaware of any conflict between him and Mueller over anything Barr had done.

 

[Ajidica]

After Barr's "summary" of the report on March 24, Mueller both called Barr and wrote him a letter saying that he was very dissatisfied with how Barr presented his findings.

Where did you read this? Don't remember seeing that.