None Shall Pass [Game Thread - Concluded]

[Arakhor]

Nazgûl must die too, but we haven't been nearly (or, indeed, at all) as successful in locating them.

 

[Frozen In Ice]

unvote, vote: spaceman

 

[Takhisis]

What the hell is this madness? Not killing the self-confessed cult leader to put pressure on spaceman… who is a lying cultist according to KingMorgan but hasn't had much asked of him yet?

Seriously, a couple votes should be pressure enough.

 

[Camikaze]

The problem for LOTR town is that if you kill me tonight, okay, you put the death nail in the coffin of an almost impotent force, but you give the LOTR cult another opportunity to expand unchecked, whilst removing the possibility of taking them out through any means other than lynching. So let's speculate and say that LOTR is currently cult 3-7 town (which would be a charitable guess). You get rid of me, that becomes 4-6 overnight. The numbers aren't put on hold while you try to sweep up the remnants of SW cult. Each day you put off lynching a LOTR cultist, the numbers turn more and more in their favour. If you don't lynch me, on the other hand, then it'll be 2-7, overnight turning into 3-6, but then also cut back down to 2-6. The only way to actually reduce LOTR cult numbers is by keeping me alive. Even 100% success in lynches from here on in doesn't reduce their numbers, and puts the inconvertibles in a position where they are continuously losing their few remaining teammates without being able to do anything to stop it. Takhisis, your back and forth with spaceman is now increasingly looking like a charade, as many initially suspected.

Obviously keeping me alive is in my interests, but this isn't some sort of binary game; the interests of multiple factions coincide all the time. In this case, the interests of the LOTR town lie with maintaining some semblance of balance through which they can arbitrage a victory. In following this path, my chance of victory happens to rise from like 1% to 5%, but the LOTR town averts a drop in their victory chances from 30% to 15% or something. If LOTR town is willing to accept that risk in order to limit my minuscule chances, well, you're making your own bed. But it's clear that by far the biggest beneficiary of my death is LOTR cult. And handing them such a benefit on a silver platter at this stage of the game seems a monumentally bad move.

 

[spaceman98]

Let's not get too hasty. Camikaze is definitely SW Cult, but Spaceman has been caught lying. Both he and KingMorgan claimed privately to me to have been the player targeted last night by Darth Vader, I never claimed that Darth Vader attacked me. I calmed that I stopped all night kills from occurring with my ability, which apparently left me injured as a result. yet independent inquiry has identified that KingMorgan's character was wounded, not Spaceman. Further, Spaceman claimed to use a special power last night, stopping all nightkills, and that the resulting wound was mentioned in the update. Since KingMorgan was the one who was visited last night, Spaceman's power claim is also false.

Besides which, you can't possibly test Takhisis' claimed ability, given that everyone's disclosed factions are already known, unless somehow someone has switched faction by joining the other side's cult. (Topsecret) I'm not convinced that he's innocent, but no actual evidence has been provided as to his guilt.

As for me, my innocence was verified by Visorslash, Choxorn and BSmith in days past, so it's no wonder that LotR cult would try to discredit me. Palpatine certainly needs to die for SW Town to even have a chance of survival, but it seems that they don't even care enough to want to survive. I'm aware that my shifting my vote like this could mean that SW imbalances LotR and we all die a horrible, nasty death at the hands of outrageously partisan SW townies, but I'll be damned if I die without revealing a single cultist.

5char

 

[Takhisis]

The problem for LOTR town is that if you kill me tonight, okay, you put the death nail in the coffin of an almost impotent force, but you give the LOTR cult another opportunity to expand unchecked, whilst removing the possibility of taking them out through any means other than lynching. So let's speculate and say that LOTR is currently cult 3-7 town (which would be a charitable guess). You get rid of me, that becomes 4-6 overnight. The numbers aren't put on hold while you try to sweep up the remnants of SW cult. Each day you put off lynching a LOTR cultist, the numbers turn more and more in their favour. If you don't lynch me, on the other hand, then it'll be 2-7, overnight turning into 3-6, but then also cut back down to 2-6. The only way to actually reduce LOTR cult numbers is by keeping me alive. Even 100% success in lynches from here on in doesn't reduce their numbers, and puts the inconvertibles in a position where they are continuously losing their few remaining teammates without being able to do anything to stop it. Takhisis, your back and forth with spaceman is now increasingly looking like a charade, as many initially suspected.

You're using so many weasel words that it's hard to believe anyone could take all that cow excrement you've posted seriously.

Have you been given your law degree yet?

 

[spaceman98]

I did indeed speculate that it was my injury mentioned in the write up, because I had no knowledge that would lead me to believe otherwise and I assumed from my ability description that no one else could have been targeted tonight (clearly I was wrong, they were targeted, just not killed). I got a PM saying I was injured at the end of the night, that's all. Do people learn which vigilante attacked them?

 

[Camikaze]

You're using so many weasel words that it's hard to believe anyone could take all that cow excrement you've posted seriously.

Have you been given your law degree yet?

Oh, well hopefully being able to string a sentence together does help with the whole convincing people thing, but one of the nice aspects about this game is that I've been able to be pretty much honest throughout (see me never denying that I'm Palpatine, for instance, or the fact that I acknowledge this plan is in my best interests).

Intriguing, however, that you refuse to address any of the points or the maths. I'd throw the question back at you, wondering why you refuse to come up with any sort of plan to deal with the LOTR cult, rather preferring to not so usefully cast aspersions at a dead man walking? You're proving to be singularly incapable of entertaining any possibilities outside 'SW cult must die immediately', despite it being clear that at the very least LOTR town has some serious thinking to do about this vote. KingMorgan, at least, seems to be thinking about the possibilities going forward, even if he is coming to what I think is an incorrect conclusion. You, on the other hand, are not doing much of anything other than shout "BUT HE'S CULT" in an attempt to discredit my plan, moving the focus of the conversation from how LOTR town plans to survive, to an established fact that I'm not denying.

 

[Takhisis]

Camikaze can tell us, I think.
Bloody xposts.

 

[spaceman98]

The problem for LOTR town is that if you kill me tonight, okay, you put the death nail in the coffin of an almost impotent force, but you give the LOTR cult another opportunity to expand unchecked, whilst removing the possibility of taking them out through any means other than lynching. So let's speculate and say that LOTR is currently cult 3-7 town (which would be a charitable guess). You get rid of me, that becomes 4-6 overnight. The numbers aren't put on hold while you try to sweep up the remnants of SW cult. Each day you put off lynching a LOTR cultist, the numbers turn more and more in their favour. If you don't lynch me, on the other hand, then it'll be 2-7, overnight turning into 3-6, but then also cut back down to 2-6. The only way to actually reduce LOTR cult numbers is by keeping me alive. Even 100% success in lynches from here on in doesn't reduce their numbers, and puts the inconvertibles in a position where they are continuously losing their few remaining teammates without being able to do anything to stop it. Takhisis, your back and forth with spaceman is now increasingly looking like a charade, as many initially suspected.

Obviously keeping me alive is in my interests, but this isn't some sort of binary game; the interests of multiple factions coincide all the time. In this case, the interests of the LOTR town lie with maintaining some semblance of balance through which they can arbitrage a victory. In following this path, my chance of victory happens to rise from like 1% to 5%, but the LOTR town averts a drop in their victory chances from 30% to 15% or something. If LOTR town is willing to accept that risk in order to limit my minuscule chances, well, you're making your own bed. But it's clear that by far the biggest beneficiary of my death is LOTR cult. And handing them such a benefit on a silver platter at this stage of the game seems a monumentally bad move.

Lets assume that we are at 3 cult vs - 7 town as you have said, which is a fairly uncharitable estimate given that cult likely wasted a lot of time early on chasing after NCs.
If we kill you, after tonight we will have 4 vs. 6.
If we don't, we will most likely (6/10) have 4 cult vs. 5 town, at which point, LOTR is doomed.

 

[Camikaze]

Lets assume that we are at 3 cult vs - 7 town as you have said, which is a fairly uncharitable estimate given that cult likely wasted a lot of time early on chasing after NCs.
If we kill you, after tonight we will have 4 vs. 6.
If we don't, we will most likely (6/10) have 4 cult vs. 5 town, at which point, LOTR is doomed.

If you weren't a cultist, that might be the case. But there's no point dealing in wildly fanciful hypotheticals.

 

[Takhisis]

You've basically admitted that all you're posting for is to tryto avoid getting lynched and you're also saying that others are casting aspersions wildly.

Just keep quiet and await your death like you should, Darth Australian.

 

[Jarrema]

unvote; vote: Spaceman

 

[Camikaze]

You've basically admitted that all you're posting for is to tryto avoid getting lynched and you're also saying that others are casting aspersions wildly.

Just keep quiet and await your death like you should, Darth Australian.

Me being quiet would be good for you, wouldn't it. The last thing the LOTR cult wants right now is people actually thinking about this vote.

Of course I want to avoid getting lynched. Has anyone been led to believe that I have some other primary goal? Newsflash: my victory conditions have not changed. It's just that now, my best chance of victory comes through co-operating with LOTR town and making them realise the supreme danger the LOTR cult is to them. As I said, this plan involves my chances of victory going from about 1% to 5%, but that 4% is being taken away from LOTR cult, not anyone else. The chances of LOTR town victory rise with a LOTR cult lynch too. Before G3TC's vote yesterday, our plan was to let LOTR town fail; we could see their doom a mile off but maintaining the LOTR cult threat was in our interests so long as we were ahead. But things have obviously changed, such that LOTR cult is the runaway force, and it's in the best interests of everyone to even them out. Again, this conveniently means that I might escape lynching, but I don't really think LOTR town should shoot themselves in their collective feet just to shoot me in the head.

BTW, yet again, you're failing to address anything of actual substance.

 

[Zack]

TALLY:

[TIMER=11/13/2013 11:59 PM EST; Day Seven Over][/TIMER]

 

[Arakhor]

I did indeed speculate that it was my injury mentioned in the write up, because I had no knowledge that would lead me to believe otherwise and I assumed from my ability description that no one else could have been targeted tonight (clearly I was wrong, they were targeted, just not killed). I got a PM saying I was injured at the end of the night, that's all. Do people learn which vigilante attacked them?

I never claimed that Darth Vader attacked me. I calmed that I stopped all night kills from occurring with my ability, which apparently left me injured as a result.

It's just a shame that you specifically noted in your PM to me that your injury was as a result of Gandalf's ability and that it was mentioned in the update. You even mentioned that it wasn't Vader's lightsabre that hurt you, so quite how your injury could be mentioned in the update that specifically involved everyone's favourite West Country villain and yet didn't have you being attacked by him is anyone's business (or, more accurately, everyone's business).

 

[spaceman98]

If you weren't a cultist, that might be the case. But there's no point dealing in wildly fanciful hypotheticals.

Lets assume for a second that I am cult. Why would you kill me? I'm going to get lynched anyways. You are going to kill confirmed townies like King Morgan, at least if past trends hold.

 

[Camikaze]

Lets assume for a second that I am cult. Why would you kill me? I'm going to get lynched anyways. You are going to kill confirmed townies like King Morgan, at least if past trends hold.

There are more cultists than you, and you and them pose the biggest existential threat to me. Last night we thought King Morgan was cult so targeted him, but now he's pretty much been confirmed as a townie. Before that, as I previously said, we were indeed interested in offing the LOTR town. But again, circumstances change.

 

[sirtommygunn]

unvote: vote spaceman98

 

[dcmort93]

I'm ok with Unvote; Vote: Spaceman if all else fails the known cultists can be knight killed or lynched later on.