Possible implications of the death of Bin Laden

[downtown]

So the first Bin Laden thread has become long and unwieldy, and now I think people are talking about Iraq or something.

So let's use this thread to discuss some of the things that might happen next.

How does this impact the mission in Afghanistan? Does it provide political cover for politicians who want to send troops home, or is it more likely to cause pols to double down in support?

How might this impact the 2012 American reelection? Have Republicans lost the ability to go after Obama on defense? Does this hurt any particular candidate more than others?

What about Yemen, and the greater War on Terror? Does this change anything? Is Al-Quida seriously crippled, or is this no big deal?

 

[Camikaze]

The brief commentary I heard this evening was that the impact on the war on terror will be minimal; his importance was more symbolic than meaningful, given his health and al-Qaeda not being monolithic. You would expect a boost from Obama from this, and as much as there is that facetious picture of Obama saying he's busy to release a birth certificate because he's killing Osama, it could really damage Trump if he keeps banging on about it if there's a renewed interest in security issues.

 

[rugbyLEAGUEfan]

Rigor mortis

 

[Babbler]

The health of the US economy will a far greater impact than Bin Laden's death on American politics. It's not going to stop the war on terror.

 

[Angst]

The internet is already filled with gifs and videos of Obama being hardcore, being the slayer of Osama of something. Being jokes aside, I think the emotional-irrational connection between Obama as a president and Osama's death will cause a quite severe boost in his approval ratings. People will know it's illogical but still do it.

I mean, he did it. He promised he'd do it, and he did. Change has come to America. The acting, powerful, great president. There are plenty of brands he's running, and this definitely not bad for him.

 

[Cutlass]

It helps Obama. But probably not enough to tip any balance. I think we could better justify getting out of Afghanistan now. But I don't know if that is in the cards. I don't really think it will hamper alQeada much. Though it may impact recruiting for a while, with their patron gone.

 

[El_Machinae]

I think that the fact that he was in a mansion, in the middle of a city, is telling. The 'vibe' was that the guy was cowering in a cave

 

[RedRalph]

I think that the fact that he was in a mansion, in the middle of a city, is telling. The 'vibe' was that the guy was cowering in a cave

Pakistan has a lot of explaining to do.

 

[downtown]

I think that the fact that he was in a mansion, in the middle of a city, is telling. The 'vibe' was that the guy was cowering in a cave

Yeah, that blows my mind. His pad was what, 100 yards from a military academy? Pakistan has some 'splainin to do.

edit: Xpost with Red

 

[rugbyLEAGUEfan]

Do we know how long he was chillin' with said homies in said crib ? Maybe that was his undoing ?

 

[Abaddon]

I think it will have little long term effects. This group, his ideas have spread well beyond the man by now. There will never be an end to the "War of Terror"

 

[asbestos]

his importance was more symbolic than meaningful, given his health and al-Qaeda not being monolithic.

Well he's now essentially a martyr, isn't he. Should I safely assume that at least one of those poly-lithic cells is planning a revenge attack?

 

[El_Machinae]

Pakistan has a lot of explaining to do.

Yeah, that blows my mind. His pad was what, 100 yards from a military academy? Pakistan has some 'splainin to do.

edit: Xpost with Red

Well, and we have some thinking to do. We already knew that he had some popular support. And we already knew that there was Al Qaeda-esque sentiments in the region. But to keep his location so quiet, in such a busy area, in such opulence, means that the popular support was way higher than thought.

I kinda assumed that a percentage of the population supported him, but in a shamed way, where they'd not really admit it. They'd eventually find each other, but would have to be subtle. This seems more brazen.

I'd also like to know what the attacking forces were armed with, I've been thinking about carbines lately, and was wondering what a pro would bring to such an event.

 

[Virote_Considon]

Pakistan has a lot of explaining to do.

Yeah, that blows my mind. His pad was what, 100 yards from a military academy? Pakistan has some 'splainin to do.

edit: Xpost with Red

Right under their noses. Best place to be perhaps?

 

[Quackers]

The compound had no telephone line or internet and they burnt all there rubbish.

..I'm not surprised the Americans did not share this raid with the relevent Pakistani authorities, you just know Osama would get tipped off.

 

[Camikaze]

Well he's now essentially a martyr, isn't he. Should I safely assume that at least one of those poly-lithic cells is planning a revenge attack?

Well, yeah, I guess there is that threat, but I was more meaning that his death wouldn't necessarily have a largely negative impact on al-Qaeda's effectiveness.

 

[onedreamer]

What about Yemen, and the greater War on Terror? Does this change anything? Is Al-Quida seriously crippled, or is this no big deal?

My opinion is that the more spectacularly you kill them, the more you strengthen them in their territories. So IMVHO Al Qaeda will be strenghtened by this event. More younglings will enroll to avenge the death of the Prophet by the hands of the Devil.

 

[CivCube]

The right-wing is going to have to jump through some weird hoops to land a good political offensive. Which is nothing new.

 

[Virote_Considon]

I guess it depends on how succesful Al-Q's retalliation is (because they certainly will try). If they can be nipped in the bud, this could be a significant hit to them, but that's a big "if".

 

[Abaddon]

My opinion is that the more spectacularly you kill them, the more you strengthen them in their territories. So IMVHO Al Qaeda will be strengthened by this event. More younglings will enrol to avenge the death of the Prophet by the hands of the Devil.

Sadly, probably this.

Bin Laden's ideas and beliefs are spread to far and will outlive him.