[RD] Russia Invades Ukraine: Eight

So far it seems Zelensky achieved exactly opposite results with his threats.

Vucic expected at Moscow parade despite illness – Serbian deputy PM​

On Friday, Vucic abruptly ended a trip to the US after experiencing chest pain during a meeting in Florida, reportedly caused by high blood pressure. He had planned to meet with the Serbian diaspora and US President Donald Trump, but returned to Belgrade and was admitted to the Military Medical Academy, according to local broadcaster RTS. Doctors said the president “cannot be expected to return to his regular activities for several days.”

Speaking on Saturday, Mali said Vucic will likely follow through with the visit. “One thing I can say is, knowing him, considering that he is a man of his word, he gave his word that he would be there, I assume that he will keep his word. But I cannot tell you that at this moment.” Vucic was discharged from the hospital on Saturday.
 
So far it seems Zelensky achieved exactly opposite results with his threats.

Vucic expected at Moscow parade despite illness – Serbian deputy PM​

On Friday, Vucic abruptly ended a trip to the US after experiencing chest pain during a meeting in Florida, reportedly caused by high blood pressure. He had planned to meet with the Serbian diaspora and US President Donald Trump, but returned to Belgrade and was admitted to the Military Medical Academy, according to local broadcaster RTS. Doctors said the president “cannot be expected to return to his regular activities for several days.”

Speaking on Saturday, Mali said Vucic will likely follow through with the visit. “One thing I can say is, knowing him, considering that he is a man of his word, he gave his word that he would be there, I assume that he will keep his word. But I cannot tell you that at this moment.” Vucic was discharged from the hospital on Saturday.
This Russia's default setting in being outraged, feeling threatened, and threatening to nuke someone. That's just constant.

The real question here is if, this time, Russia actually feels there is a threat?
 
It's a threat Russia created itself by permanently bombing cities and saying they were targeting groups military personnel inside the cities.

And just after targeting the celebration in Sumy, where one missile hit the target, the other hit the civilian, that they claimed was perfectly normal to do and the civilian were human shields, they've realized Ukraine could do the same on their celebrations.

I don't think Ukraine will take the risk to have a missile falling off-target in a city, but Russia should not do military celebration in cities, or should not have civilians near them, else if something happen it will be Russia fault by their own interpretation.
 
No, "Kiev can't ensure safety of world leaders visiting Moscow" was an empty threat from Zelensky.
Unlike Russia, Ukraine has yet to actually shoot at foreign representatives.

What is Russia in a position to guarantee them in fact?
 
It's a threat Russia created itself by permanently bombing cities and saying they were targeting groups military personnel inside the cities.

And just after targeting the celebration in Sumy, where one missile hit the target, the other hit the civilian, that they claimed was perfectly normal to do and the civilian were human shields, they've realized Ukraine could do the same on their celebrations.

I don't think Ukraine will take the risk to have a missile falling off-target in a city, but Russia should not do military celebration in cities, or should not have civilians near them, else if something happen it will be Russia fault by their own interpretation.
Ukraine attacked civilian targets in the cities multiple times before, without even having military objects or gatherings nearby.
Your "could do the same" sounds quite a bit off when they already did that, and much worse.
 
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I've told you before, I'll tell you again, if there was as less civilian death in Ukraine as there are in Russia, thousands of lives would have been saved.
 
Still, I agree the "threat" is empty, as it's a warning against false flag and a reaction from foreign delegation asking them to not attack that day.


He said that Ukraine cannot provide security assurances to foreign officials planning to visit Russia around May 9, warning that Moscow could stage provocations and later attempt to blame Ukraine.

Zelenskyy said that some governments had approached Kyiv seeking safety reassurance while their delegations are in Russia.

“Our position is very simple: we cannot take responsibility for what happens on the territory of the Russian Federation,” he said. “They are the ones providing your security, and we will not be offering any guarantees.”

Zelenskyy said he had instructed Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry to advise against visiting Russia during this period. “We must tell those who approach us: we do not recommend visiting the Russian Federation from a security standpoint. And if you choose to do so, don’t ask us — it’s your personal decision.”

The Ukrainian leader reiterated that Kyiv’s military actions will remain “mirror-like,” responding to Russia’s moves. He acknowledged that implementing a complete front-line ceasefire without robust international monitoring remains nearly impossible, but emphasized that the 30-day window offers a credible start.

Pretty sure there will be attacks on the parade days, but just where the air defenses have been removed.

 
I was more curious whether it will be "not a threat at all" or "Russia's fault anyway and regardless" response.
Turns out it's both this time.
 
It is a parade at least nominally in honor of Russia's effort in ww2. Attacking it - if we assume it would be possible for Ukraine (is it?) - wouldn't help Ukraine.
The false flag fear isn't imo logical - what could Russia do, not have its most important national holiday, or magically sign a peace deal so as to have it?

Not now, but a little further down the road (which may be just a few years at the rate things are developing with rearming etc), it seems we won't care about ww2 anymore, as if it was some freak accident and the conditions for it to repeat can never materialize again or can only be with Russia playing the role of Germany. Sadly, more than one countries are able to be that.
 
Well, it seems that invading Ukraine was an incredibly stupid decision if the motivation was the alleged "ensuring Russia's security", huh?

another first, after a helicopter this time it's a Su-30 that was shoot down by a Sea drone.

Great! Ukrainians has come a long way with their drones, and Russia seems particularly incompetent at sea. It can't maintain control of the Black Sea, even with Trump's help.
 
Well, it seems that invading Ukraine was an incredibly stupid decision if the motivation was the alleged "ensuring Russia's security", huh?
A parade lasts a day and all the celebrations a few days. It has to be clear that strategic plans for safety of a country (regardless if correct or not) are not ever prioritizing a few days but long-term (typically decades).
 
Parades putting civilians at risk when you're at war are stupid. As was a celebration grouping military personnel in a city near the frontline.

But the political/propaganda gain outweigh the risk for Russia I suppose, they need to show they are supported.
 
It is a parade at least nominally in honor of Russia's effort in ww2. Attacking it - if we assume it would be possible for Ukraine (is it?) - wouldn't help Ukraine.
The false flag fear isn't imo logical - what could Russia do, not have its most important national holiday, or magically sign a peace deal so as to have it?

Not now, but a little further down the road (which may be just a few years at the rate things are developing with rearming etc), it seems we won't care about ww2 anymore, as if it was some freak accident and the conditions for it to repeat can never materialize again or can only be with Russia playing the role of Germany. Sadly, more than one countries are able to be that.

The concerns about a hypothetical attack on Moscow are mostly an attempt at distraction, as usual. Since the start of the year, Russia has ramped up its attacks on Ukrainian cities and civilians, killing and injuring thousands of them. See the NYT article below citing a UN report. Now Russia tries to present itself as a victim and Ukraine as reckless (for hypothetically doing something that Russia has been doing in the real world for three years now).

For these last three years, we've heard pro-Russian propagandists excuse every Russian attacks on Ukrainian civilians, always in the same manner (you can see old posts from red_elk and innonimatu for examples in this forum, but they regurgitate official Kremlin propaganda ad verbatim, which you can find elsewhere too).

-Every time civilians died from Russian bombings, Ukraine is blamed for placing military assets near them. Even worse, Ukraine is accused of purposely using civilians as human shields. This happened in Sumy just a few days ago, but it seems like people have short or selective memory. (Meanwhile, there is video evidence of Russia stationing and using offensive weapon systems near its own civilians).

-Every time Ukrainian civilians are hurt from falling AA debris, Ukraine is criticized as reckless for attempting to shoot down the countless drones and missiles flying over its cities.

-Every time a Ukrainian city is razed to the ground from incessant Russian bombings, Ukraine is blamed for defending its cities instead of surrendering them to Russia.

So now Russia is going to deploy military assets for a needless parade attended by large number of civilians, and it sees the opportunity to play the victim card (in a hypothetical scenario). Nothing new or original.

I don't know why you seem so worried about a potential WW3 in a lot of your posts. So far the only country that shown extreme recklessness is Russia when it invaded its neighbor to conquer part of it and destroy or subjugate the rest, starting the worst war in Europe since WW2. Ukraine's only demand (to be left alone) can hardly be called reckless.

Russia is the only one who officially involved the armed forces of another country in direct combat, by calling in North Korean solders to further its conquests. All countries supporting Ukraine (Europe, the US) have shown an extreme reticence in ever getting their troops directly involved on the ground. The support they provide to Ukraine can hardly be seen as a precursor to WW3. There were many proxy conflicts during the Cold War, which never escalated to WW3, even when the Soviets themselves shot down American planes over Vietnam.

Anyway, for some news:
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/02/world/europe/ukraine-russia-war-cease-fire-talks.html

Life in Ukraine Has Become More Dangerous Since Cease-Fire Talks Began​

Andrew E. Kramer

10–12 minutes



Russian strikes and fighting along the front line have killed far more civilians than over the same period a year ago, U.N. officials said in a presentation for diplomats in New York this week.


With the beginning of cease-fire talks in the war between Russia and Ukraine, life has become riskier for Ukrainian civilians, according to a tally of civilian deaths by the United Nations and analysts reviewing recent Russian strikes.

Since the talks began in February, Russian missile and drone strikes and fighting along the front line have killed far more civilians than over the same period a year ago, U.N. officials said in a presentation for diplomats in New York this week. In the first 24 days of April, for example, 848 civilians were killed or wounded, a 46 percent increase over the same period last year, the U.N. said.

At the same time, Russia has been targeting cities more intensively — just last month hitting a playground, pedestrians on a crowded sidewalk and an apartment building — an analysis of recent strikes shows. In the fighting on the ground, Russia opened a new offensive in the north, east and south, Ukraine’s top military commander, Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky, said on April 9.

On March 11, Ukraine launched on Moscow its largest drone assault of the entire war — the morning of the day it agreed to a cease-fire. The barrage killed three people and wounded 18 others in the Russian capital and nearby, the Russian authorities said.

Overall, the first months of this year coinciding with the Trump administration’s peace talks have clocked in as far deadlier than the same period last year, according to the United Nations.

Analysts say an increase in violence during cease-fire talks is not unusual in wars. When talks are underway in conflicts, they say, warring armies tend to jockey for advantage before a truce halts the fighting. The result can be more casualties, particularly in Ukraine as flurries of strikes overwhelm air defenses.

“If there is going to be a moment when they cannot pursue military action, you expect armies to get in whatever blows they want before they have to stop,” Samuel Charap, a Russia analyst at the RAND Corporation, said in a phone interview. “I don’t think an increase in attacks necessarily means rejection of the negotiating process.”

In 2014 and 2015, Russia escalated military action sharply in Ukraine before or during cease-fire talks, capturing the eastern towns of Ilovaisk and Debaltseve to force political terms on Kyiv. “There are things militaries want to achieve before a potential cessation of hostilities,” Mr. Charap said.
The new run of attacks has put Ukrainians on edge. Olena Khirkovska, 57, an accountant whose apartment was destroyed in a Russian missile strike in Kyiv on April 24, said the strikes seemed intended to frighten Ukrainians into accepting an unfavorable deal.

“We are strong, fear us,” was the message of the attacks, she said, adding, “It feels like they don’t want peace at all” while engaging in negotiations.

President Trump began the cease-fire talks on Feb. 12 with phone calls to President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia and President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine. Since then, the Trump administration has pursued separate rounds of negotiations with Ukrainian and Russian officials.

During talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, on March 11, Ukraine agreed to the U.S. proposal for an unconditional, 30-day cease-fire. Later in March, Russia and Ukraine agreed to a limited truce covering strikes on energy infrastructure, but each accused the other of violating that.

Russia offered a 30-hour cease-fire on Easter Sunday, and Ukraine accepted. Again, each side accused the other of violations but acknowledged that violence declined during the truce.

Mr. Putin has proposed a three-day cease-fire next week for the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II.

Vice President JD Vance in an interview on Thursday with Fox News suggested a drawn-out timeline for talks stretching into the summer. The war, Mr. Vance said, would not end “any time soon.” Russia and Ukraine, he said, had laid out their terms for a settlement. “We’re going to work very hard over the next 100 days to try to bring these guys together,” Mr. Vance said.

The pace of Russian missile and drone attacks rose after Mr. Trump’s phone call in February with the two leaders, an analysis of Ukrainian air force reports shows. In the 30 days that followed the calls, Russia launched 4,694 missiles and drones at Ukraine, compared with 1,873 in the 30 days before the calls.

After the bombardment of Kyiv that pancaked an apartment building, Mr. Trump wrote in a social media post of Mr. Putin, “it makes me think that maybe he doesn’t want to stop the war.”

It is not clear that the increase in attacks is linked to the talks. Russia has for months been ramping up exploding drone assaults after a factory producing the most common model, an Iranian-designed drone called a Shahed, came online last year, said Mark F. Cancian, a senior analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. “That’s a reflection primarily of availability,” he said. “They fire everything they have.”

But there was a change in Russian tactics, analysts said. Rather than striking multiple targets throughout Ukraine, it has focused many nights on one intensive bombardment of a single city or town.
Image

That tactic overwhelms Ukrainian air defenses and “results in much greater destruction and human casualties,” said Oleksiy Melnyk, a military analyst at the Razumkov Center, a research organization, in Kyiv. The goal, he said, is to stir opposition to the war in Ukraine and raise “pressure on the Ukrainian government” to accept settlement terms.

The U.N. documented more than 2,641 civilians killed or wounded in the first three months of this year, Joyce Msuya, the U.N. assistant secretary general for humanitarian affairs, told diplomats at the United Nations on Tuesday. That was nearly 900 additional dead and wounded civilians in Ukraine compared with the same period last year, she said.
The rate of civilian deaths rose further in April, coinciding with a period when U.S. negotiators met separately with Ukrainian and Russian officials for talks.

The attacks this year have also driven about 40,000 Ukrainians from their homes, adding to the war’s total of 10.7 million people displaced within the country.

The attacks in April included a strike that killed 35 people, many out strolling on sidewalks on Palm Sunday in the northeastern city of Sumy, and another that killed 19, including nine children, when a missile hit a playground in the central Ukrainian city of Kryvyi Rih.

An official in Russia’s occupation government on Thursday accused Ukraine of hitting a market in a Russian-controlled area of Ukraine, killing seven people and wounding 20 others. Ukraine’s military denied the claim, which was not possible to independently verify.

The barrages continued overnight Friday. Ukrainian authorities said that Russia launched 150 drones overnight, and that most had been shot down. A drone volley Thursday wounded 14 people in the southern city of Zaporizhzhia, the regional governor said. On Wednesday, a volley of drones wounded 45 people, including two children and a pregnant woman, in Kharkiv, the local authorities said.

“And so it goes every day,” Mr. Zelensky wrote on Facebook about the attacks. He asked for nations supporting Ukraine to impose additional sanctions on Russia. “It must be pressure, not just words or persuasion, that forces Russia to cease fire,” he said.
 
Björk judiciously observed "all is full of love"

So I request a new order of missionaries "the love revealers" that will make the Xis, Trumps and Putins realize they are indeed full of love.
Should make them collapse. Missiles are not required (even when you hope they are used :rolleyes: war profiter comrade @Thorgalaeg)
 
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I was on youtube, watching some segments of a movie adaptation of War and Peace. Perhaps not so curiously, some videos had in their description warcries (to put it politely) against current Russia.
Not so curiously, but rather gloomily as well.
 
As it happens I was just reading specific parts of War and Peace - the Russians (as portrayed by Tolstoy) of back then are not that different of those of today..speaking French instead of English...

The part where the Russian officers learn the Austrian army has surrendered at Ulm :

“What’s the matter?” exclaimed Prince Andrew standing still in his excitement. “Don’t you understand that either we are officers serving our Tsar and our country, rejoicing in the successes and grieving at the misfortunes of our common cause, or we are merely lackeys who care nothing for their master’s business. Quarante mille hommes massacrés et l’armée de nos alliés détruite, et vous trouvez là le mot pour rire,” * he said, as if strengthening his views by this French sentence. “C’est bien pour un garçon de rien comme cet individu dont vous avez fait un ami, mais pas pour vous, pas pour vous. *(2) Only a hobbledehoy could amuse himself in this way,” he added in Russian—but pronouncing the word with a French accent—having noticed that Zherkóv could still hear him.
 
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There is a discussion of cultural differences in the works of the main names of the 19th century in Russian literature. Still, cursing Russia in a youtube video of an adapted novel would never imply culture.
 
One wonders what literature the current war will produce, a century or two so from now.


Power was yet to be restored to the town of Rylsk, a town of about 15,000 people about 50 km (30 miles) from the border with Ukraine, after Ukrainian forces struck the substation there late on Monday, damaging two transformers and injuring two teenagers, Kursk Governor Alexander Khinshtein said. (...)

"Dear residents, the enemy, in its agony, is continuing to launch strikes against our territory," Khinshtein said on the Telegram messaging app.
Authorities were evacuating residents from areas near the border as Ukrainian drone attacks over the past day became "more frequent", the administration of the Kursk region said on Telegram early on Tuesday.
Russian war bloggers reported that Ukrainian forces attacked the Kursk region on Monday, firing missiles, smashing through the border and crossing minefields with special vehicles.
"The enemy blew up bridges with rockets at night and launched an attack with armoured groups in the morning," Russian war blogger "RVvoenkor" said on Telegram on Monday.
 
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