[RD] Russia Invades Ukraine: Eight

[Verbose]

No, they are nuclear bombers - just haven't been used to carry out nuking missions against Ukraine (used with conventional weapons there). A plane needs certain traits/capabilities to be designated as what they are, it's not defined by what they may carry at mission x.

They are strategic bombers – and strategic bombing might be nuclear – but mostly it isn't.

Since it's not like you're claiming them to be nuclear bombers by virtue of nuclear propulsion anyway.

 

[Verbose]

Wiki says that while Russia suspended participation from the treaty, it did not withdraw from it:

New START - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

View attachment 733458
So it appears that it is still bound by it and thus this was the far likelier reason its strategic nuclear bombers had no hangar.
(also @Gedemon , @saamohod )

Even if, it could only be a valid injunction against attacking them IF you assume it wasn't Ukraine doing the attacking but the US. Let Russia retaliate against the US, if it likes, nukes or whatever...

Interesting development that this one the Ukranians carried out completely without informing anyone, certainly not the US. More of that should be expected.

 

[Verbose]

Please discuss the actual source of information. I can't believe you're going so far into pure speculations to deny reality while there could be many reasons why Russian bombers were not protected (like: no one was ever attacked like that before)

I'm pretty sure all nation with strategic bombers must be thinking very hard about how to counter that now.

Right now all kinds of nations are already thinking very hard about who might have the capacity to put together that kind of drone swarm, and what might be targeted by it. Since it's not like Russia is uniquely unprotected against that kind of attack – everyone is.

Which is why it's getting such singular attention as something actually new, and worrying. (And nothing like a "Pearl Harbor" moment – I have seen comparisons with Taranto 1940 in German otoh.)

 

[Thorgalaeg]

Explosions continue in Crimea bridge apparently. Drones working underwater too.

Maybe it is bridge day.

 

[ConquestsMaster]

Wiki says that while Russia suspended participation from the treaty, it did not withdraw from it:

New START - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

View attachment 733458
So it appears that it is still bound by it and thus this was the far likelier reason its strategic nuclear bombers had no hangar.
(also @Gedemon , @saamohod )

Why don't you read the treaty? Here is the full text:
https://2009-2017.state.gov/documents/organization/140035.pdf

It specifically states that strategic bombers can be parked in hangars. So I don't know why you claim the contrary.

2. The obligation not to use concealment measures includes the obligation not to use them at test ranges, including measures that result in the concealment of ICBMs, SLBMs, ICBM launchers, or the association between ICBMs or SLBMs and their launchers during testing. The obligation not to use concealment measures shall not apply to cover or concealment practices at ICBM bases or to the use of environmental shelters for strategic offensive arms.

If you followed the war you would know that the protection of Russian strategic bombers has been an issue since 2022, when Ukraine attacked the Engels-2 base. It forced Russia to relocate some of its bombers further away from the frontline. Repeated attacks on Russian air bases caused outrage among Russian military journalists and bloggers, who have been pushing the government to better protect air assets. The Minister of Defense has met with them and promised that Russia would increase its efforts to strengthen protection. And the country did work on building more shelters, but mainly closer to the Ukrainian border. And it has implemented a variety of measures to protect its air assets, including some that are cheaper and quicker to implement than shelters:

The Russian Aerospace Forces have also taken further precautions at their bases. Initially, they installed blast walls between active aircraft. This was an attempt to contain any damage to one aircraft in an attack, designed to prevent both fire and shrapnel from spreading. More recently, construction work at multiple bases has been adding many dozens of new hardened aircraft shelters to better shield aircraft from drone attacks and other indirect fire. However, the size of the bombers means they cannot be provided with the same kinds of protection.

As well as the physical hardening of airfields, Russia has arranged discarded aircraft as decoys. More unorthodox measures have included placing car tires on the upper surfaces of aircraft and painting aircraft silhouettes on concrete airfield surfaces. The tires, specifically, were intended to confuse image-matching seekers on Ukrainian-operated standoff weapons.

So no, the bombers were not out in the open to comply with a treaty that does not require such a thing. They were out there on runways in the remote Kola Peninsula and Irkutsk region, precisely because they were thought the be safe there, at least relatively so. Russia was not prepared to defend against an attack organized deep inside Russia targeting multiple sites at once. It was a failure of Russian intelligence and local air base defense.

 

[red_elk]

Meanwhile Ukraine lost another 581 sq. km. in May, comparing to 337 sq. km. previous month.
Kind of explains why they became so insistent on cease fire recently.

 

[Joij21]

Meanwhile Ukraine lost another 581 sq. km. in May, comparing to 337 sq. km. previous month.
Kind of explains why they became so insistent on cease fire recently.

That's nothing. Just more border villages, hardly moving the front. Same old same old that Russian propagandists have been using as cope to proclaim some soon to come victory that never happens.

30% of your strategic bomber fleet just got wiped out btw.

 

[Ordnael]

Don't be hard on him @Joij21 , after all his handler must be terrified Kerch bridge is on fire so propaganda instructions now are very shallow!

 

[amadeus]

Meanwhile Ukraine lost another 581 sq. km. in May, comparing to 337 sq. km. previous month.

That doesn’t seem like a terribly impressive number, less than 0.1% of the country. Less blitzkrieg and more western front WWI.

 

[red_elk]

That doesn’t seem like a terribly impressive number, less than 0.1% of the country. Less blitzkrieg and more western front WWI.

~10% of remaining Donbass territory. Not much, yes, hopefully the rate will increase further.
To put it into perspective, 1.5 years ago the mood here was "There is no stalemate, Ukraine is winning!"
Now I can partially agree to that, there is no stalemate indeed

 

[Gedemon]

at this rate in less than a hundred years and less than 30,000,000 casualties Russia will have won the war.

 

[EvaDK]

When the usual suspects of Pro-Russian military bloggers start their infighting (as they have been doing since yesterday), that usually suggests a similar infight between the Russian intelligence services and the military leadership.

Meanwhile Putin is silent/missing, as usual in the immediate aftermath of a huge national crisis. We're nearing 48hrs after Operation Spiderweb caused the biggest intelligence and military failure in Moscow since the 22nd of June 1941 and the Russian President is apparently in hiding.

 

[red_elk]

at this rate in less than a hundred years and less than 30,000,000 casualties Russia will have won the war.

Even longer, if you apply this kindergarten arithmetic to EU territory.

 

[Gedemon]

Even longer, if you apply this kindergarten arithmetic to EU territory.

I agree, that arithmetic is stupid, war will not be won on km2 per month, yet here we are, a very high percentage of the Russian strategic bomber fleet has been hit, Kerch bridge is damaged, so something different must be discussed, anything.

Ho look we've took more km² this month than last month (we're also loosing more people than ever since 2022, but who cares ?)

 

[red_elk]

I agree, that arithmetic is stupid, war will not be won on km2 per month, yet here we are, a very high percentage of the Russian strategic bomber fleet has been hit, Kerch bridge is damaged, so something different must be discussed, anything.

You are free to discuss whatever you want and not to respond to what you believe was posted as a distraction.
By the way, satellite images seem to reveal initial Ukrainian claims of 40+ planes were exaggerated several fold. So, "very high percentage" may have to be revised soon.

we're also loosing more people than ever since 2022, but who cares ?

Oh yeah? More than during Bakhmut operation?

 

[soundjata]

[Russia is] losing more people than ever since 2022, but who cares ?

Yes who cares about countless human souls dying to their childlike attitude (war is fun)?
Vladimir does not. Obviously.
Will anyone here have the audacity to pretend otherwise?

 

[soundjata]

~10% of remaining Donbass territory. Not much, yes, hopefully the rate will increase further.
To put it into perspective, 1.5 years ago the mood here was "There is no stalemate, Ukraine is winning!"
Now I can partially agree to that, there is no stalemate indeed

So you are hopping for the complete annexation of one of your neighboring country, with whom you've been at peace for the majority of your (personal) existence.

Please explain to me the kind of (personal) advantage you foresee down that path.
Are you a real estate developer? Do you own a mining corporation?

Please tell me the reason you have for smiling at the disintegration of Russian & Ukrainian cohorts.

 

[Gedemon]

You are free to discuss whatever you want and not to respond to what you believe was posted as a distraction.
By the way, satellite images seem to reveal initial Ukrainian claims of 40+ planes were exaggerated several fold. So, "very high percentage" may have to be revised soon.

losing 10%+ in one day would have been laughable 2 days ago. so yes, "very high" it is, already.

Institute for the Study of War

Ukrainian and Russian delegations met in Istanbul on June 2 and only reached agreements about prisoner of war (POW) exchanges. Russia's refusal to give Ukraine its memorandum with its terms for a peace settlement before the meeting ensured that the

www.understandingwar.org

Open-source analysts continue to clarify the battlefield damage following the Ukrainian long-range drone strike series on June 1. Open-source analysts on X assessed that available imagery published on June 2 indicates that Ukrainian special services likely destroyed or damaged four Tu-95 bombers and three Tu-22M3 bombers at Belaya Air Base in Irkutsk Oblast and one A-50 airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) aircraft at Ivanovo Air Base in Ivanovo Oblast. Open-source analysts on X claimed that available video footage published on June 1 and 2 indicates that Ukrainian special services destroyed or damaged five Tu-95 bombers and one An-22 transport aircraft at Olenya Air Base in Murmansk Oblast.

[...]

Ukrainian military observer Tatarigami stated on June 2 that Russia has not built new Tu-95 or Tu-22M3 since 1991 and that Russia only had 70 to 90 Tupolev aircraft before the June 1 strike series. ISW will continue to monitor for additional satellite imagery confirmation of Ukrainian drone strikes against Russian air bases..

Oh yeah? More than during Bakhmut operation?

yes, according to the BBC and Meduza

How Russia suffered record losses in Ukraine in 2024

Last year was the deadliest for Russian forces since the start of the full-scale war with at least 45,287 killed.

www.bbc.com

This is almost three times more than in the first year of the invasion and significantly exceeds the losses of 2023, when the longest and deadliest battle of the war was taking place in Bakhmut.

At the start of the war, losses happened in waves during battles for key locations, but 2024 saw a month-on-month increase in the death toll as the front line slowly edged forward, enabling us to estimate that Russia lost at least 27 lives for every square kilometre of Ukrainian territory captured.

The BBC Russian Service, in collaboration with independent media outlet Mediazona and a team of volunteers, has processed open source data from Russian cemeteries, military memorials and obituaries.

So far, we have identified the names of 106,745 Russian soldiers killed during the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

The true number is clearly much higher. Military experts estimate our number may cover between 45% and 65% of deaths, which would mean 164,223 to 237,211 people.

 

[red_elk]

yes, according to the BBC and Meduza

First of all, this article is about 2024, and your claim about "highest casualties since 2022" was about the current situation, as we were talking about Russian advances in May. So no, it doesn't confirm your claims. In 2025, highest casualties for both sides were likely in March, when Ukraine was kicked out of Kursk. April and May were relatively calmer.

And second point, BBC doesn't discuss Ukrainian casualties in the article (if anywhere at all). This is understandable as they are pro-Ukrainian, but it raises obvious questions about veracity of their reports. Mediazona, which they refer to, had several reports about Ukrainian casualties as well, which BBC et. all., seem to be hesitant to comment, instead relying on Ukrainian official numbers.

According to Mediazona, by the way, Ukrainian named casualties in Feb-Sept 2022 and in 2-nd half of 2023 were exceeding Russian. Didn't find more recent data.

 

[Birdjaguar]

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