[RD] Russia invades Ukraine V: The Turning Tide

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From the WSJ today

Ukraine Sees Signs Moscow Is Shifting From Bakhmut
BY ALISTAIR MACDONALD

BAKHMUT, Ukraine—Russian troops have tempered their assault on the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, Ukrainian commanders say, as stiff resistance forces Russian units to shift some of their firepower to surrounding areas. Some Ukrainian officers and British military intelligence say that Russia is no longer hitting Bakhmut—a city that has assumed outsize importance to both sides—with the same ferocity as it was last month. The Ukrainian commanders say Russia instead has repositioned armored vehicles and artillery fire toward the nearby town of Soledar. Bakhmut and Soledar are part of the same front, and fighting has ebbed and flowed around both cities before. An easing in clashes in one area doesn’t suggest the Russians have given up on taking Bakhmut entirely, but rather indicates that Ukraine’s resistance has forced a rethink. Several Ukrainian officers say they believe that Russia, at least for now, has redirected fire from Bakhmut after struggling for months to take the city. Instead, Russia might seek to test Ukrainian defenses around Soledar and claw out a victory there, they say.
Since the autumn, Bakhmut and its surrounding area have emerged as one of the most hotly contested front lines of the war, with both sides pouring a large number of troops and hardware into the front. Ukraine’s top military commander, Valeriy Zaluzhny, recently said the fighting in the Bakhmut area was “the most challenging situation” faced by his forces. While it has little strategic significance, Bakhmut has acquired great importance for Wagner, the Russian paramilitary force that has sought to storm the city, as well as for Gen. Sergei Surovikin, who was appointed Russia’s military commander in Ukraine in October. Russian and Ukrainian forces have been fighting for Bakhmut, a city of 70,000 people, for about six months. Taking Bakhmut would have great psychological significance for Russia after a string of battlefield setbacks.

At a Ukrainian artillery position on the outskirts of Soledar, Russian ordnance has pummeled the surrounding area in recent days. Ukrainian howitzers hit back at what an artillery officer said were Russian positions outside the city. British military intelligence said Ukraine has committed significant reinforcements to Bakhmut, blunting Russian attacks at great cost for both sides. Russia is unlikely to achieve a breakthrough in the coming weeks, British intelligence said Tuesday.
At an antiaircraft position close to Bakhmut, the platoon commander said Russian fire had roughly halved in recent days and appeared to be redirected at Soledar. Serhii Cherevatyi, a spokesman for the Ukrainian forces in the east, said he hasn’t noticed a significant falloff in Russian artillery strikes at Bakhmut or a redirection of fire.

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Ukrainian soldiers wait as an artillery battle takes place on the outskirts of Soledar in eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region. JOSEPH SYWENKYJ FOR THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

Earlier this week, incoming explosions from Russian fire sounded every two minutes around Bakhmut, with Ukrainian forces firing about once a minute. “They are looking for the weakest points in the Ukrainian system,” said one officer, who had ZU-23, the name of a Soviet antiaircraft gun, tattooed on his knuckles. The flow of Ukrainian casualties from Bakhmut has slowed at one local hospital. Andriy Zholob, the commander of the 46th Brigade’s medical unit, said Monday he was conducting six or seven operations a day between Dec. 17 and 19, but hadn’t carried out one for the past two days.

On Monday, smoke rose from Soledar. In the surrounding fields, fires and smoke rose from at least five craters, while artillery fire from both sides continued at regular intervals. Russia is still concentrating its efforts on conducting offensive actions in the Bakhmut area, Ukrainian armed forces said Tuesday. Russian tanks and artillery fired at 20 settlements in the area, it said. Despite the respite, Ukrainian soldiers remain on alert for a renewed Russian push on Bakhmut. “We are expecting a counterattack at any time,” a Ukrainian army captain said.
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Putin tells Erdogan: Ukraine must accept loss of territories for there to be dialogue​

 
From that link:

Putin sends new hypersonic cruise missiles to Atlantic​

The Russian president has sent a ship armed with new hypersonic Zircon cruise missiles towards the Atlantic and Indian oceans.
Vladimir Putin, who is engaged in a standoff with the West over the invasion of Ukraine, said the weapons were the "latest" hypersonic missile system.
Russian defence minister Sergei Shoigu said the ship would also sail to the Mediterranean Sea.
"This ship, armed with 'Zircons', is capable of delivering pinpoint and powerful strikes against the enemy at sea and on land," he said, adding the weapons could overcome any missile defence system.
The missiles fly at nine times the speed of sound and have a range of over 1,000km, Mr Shoigu said.
Hypersonic missiles are particularly fast and maneuverable, and their intended target is much more difficult to calculate than for intercontinental ballistic missiles.

This might be easy for other people to answer. How is Russia gaining access to the Atlantic right now? The ship would have had to leave a port in the middle of winter.
 
Kalingrad, St. Petersburg, Murmansk; Only Murmansk might be ice bound.
 
This might be easy for other people to answer. How is Russia gaining access to the Atlantic right now? The ship would have had to leave a port in the middle of winter.
It's the Admiral Gorshkov frigate (Admiral Flota Sovetskogo Soyuza Gorshkov), one of the more recent builds, with the Northern Fleet, so out of Murmansk etc.
 
The next step after AFVs might by main battle tanks, if Ukraine and the Western donators agree that such an asset might be a deciding factor in winning the next major offensives.

Well, speaking of the Devil...

Germany signals shift on supply of tanks and armoured vehicles to Ukraine​

Germany has hinted that it may allow tanks or armoured vehicles to be sent to Ukraine a day after France said it would supply armoured vehicles to Kyiv in an attempt to create a breakthrough in the 10-month war.

Ministers and officials from Berlin indicated that a decision to supply Marder infantry fighting vehicles or Leopard 2 tanks for the first time could be taken at the next meeting of the “Ramstein” Ukraine Defence Contact Group – a series of regular talks between Ukraine and its allies – in mid-January.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/05/germany-tanks-ukraine-russia-war
 
One if the elite units is still near Moscow and they have aT-15 armatas that either break down on parade or the drive bers are incompetent take your pick.
When I read this I lol'd because I immediately pictured a Russian Brown bear stuffed into the cockpit of a tank, slouched over trying to operate the gears with his paws:lol:
 

Well well well...quite a hypocrisy after what they did on 24th December. My cynical side says it's only a move to portray Russians as victims of "satanical" Ukraine to the domestic public after it refuses the ceasefire.
Its an obvious stalling tactic to regroup. Ukrainians would be fools to fall for this blatantly garbage "cease-fire" offer.
 

50 Bradleys seems to be almost certainty...


As are Marders and additional Patriot system.

Looks like something finally convinced the western intelligence that successful spring offensive is the best way to resolve this war and it can succeed.
 
Any weapons provided by NATO will be better than their Russian counterparts and put to good use by Ukraine. I'm hoping for longer range items to carry the destruction into Russian bases and infrastructure.
 
Any weapons provided by NATO will be better than their Russian counterparts and put to good use by Ukraine. I'm hoping for longer range items to carry the destruction into Russian bases and infrastructure.

I wonder what models and with what equipment exactly will be sent to Ukraine. Both Bradley and Marder can carry ATGMs, which would make the life of Russian armoured vehicles much more interesting...and shorter.
 
Depends on whether there will be (and if at any substantial number) Leopard II. Saying "Marder or Leopard II" is like saying they will give them "bullets or F-16", pretty much; Marder is another ancient and very light ""tank"", used to move soldiers, not fight battles ^^
I must say I don't understand this commitment on your part to continually undervalue what are clearly dangerous weapons to any foot soldier. or at the very least provide 1) armored protection 2) means of transport 3) covering fire.
A German infantry fighting vehicle is "not made to fight battles"? what does that even mean?
 
I must say I don't understand this commitment on your part to continually undervalue what are clearly dangerous weapons to any foot soldier. or at the very least provide 1) armored protection 2) means of transport 3) covering fire.
A German infantry fighting vehicle is "not made to fight battles"? what does that even mean?
A Marder will defeat a foot-soldier. That doesn't change the fact it most certainly is not a main battle tank, and in reality is hardly any type of tank - more of an armored jeep.
 
A Marder will defeat a foot-soldier. That doesn't change the fact it most certainly is not a main battle tank, and in reality is hardly any type of tank - more of an armored jeep.

Better armoured and more suited to all terrains than a jeep or humvee. Not a main battle tank but then neither is a BMP-2.
 
Also, better than BMP-2 IFVs used by the Russians. And capable of firing ATGMs as well. Very comparable to the Brads, who put on quite a show in Gulf Wars 1 and 2.
 
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