[BTS] Sullla's AI Survivor Season Eight - Wildcard Game 1 Thread

[Eauxps I. Fourgott]

I really think you're wrong in your argument, @ManiaMuse89, but at this point I'd just be repeating my points so we'll just wait to see who is right for this particular map.

What do you mean by a test game?

 

[SittinDown]

Overall:

• Lots of creative, and Asoka is semi-creative thanks to religion. Portugal left out, and look for extra barbs in the West and North ice.
• Hard to read a winner.
  • Asoka could get a fast start if the barbs can be kept off of the gems, but that seems pretty risky.
  • Cathy could win, if she can have an okay start, pick off enemies one at a time instead of angering everyone at once.
  • Hatty could maybe get culture, but seems like she's struggle with neighbors and barbs, and can't get a big enough tech lead to be conquest proof.
  • Zara could get some momentum this game, but has shown a poor knack for winning.
  • Pericles isn't really built to win. Hard to see him winning culture in this field, and I don't see domination or space as a possibility
  • J looks pretty weak to me, and a long shot.

I think that just leaves Asoka, Cathy, and Zara as potential winners. I'd like Asoka if normal barbs, but I think I'm leaning away from that.
2nd place could be pretty much anyone, except J, in my mind.
FTD - probably Asoka, Hatty, are favorites.

Land:

• Asoka - gems look good. PH capital, only leader with commerce + tech, but will the barbs ruin it? (probably)
• Cathy - bad early resource / tech synergy. good 2nd spots, and pretty protected from barbs.
• Hatty - bad early resource / techs. probably gonna farm FP's. looks like a slow start, poor commerce without pottery, and lots of icy barb land to the north for trouble. settle 2nd city towards ivory / sheep?
• Portugal - looks very rough for J at the start. no fish or mines, so bad low yield, no commerce start in play.
• Pericles - high food, some commerce, safe-ish metals. no horse or ivory. pretty safe from barbs, unless he settles East first.
• Zara - some use in early mining, band of jungle, and band of icy to the north could be trouble for barbs.

I have tended to read the land and the starting techs and the leaders, rather than try to read the diplo. I feel like most of my diplo predictions have turned out poorly this year, but I feel like I've read the starting positions relatively well, (except Suri and the water-start, which I thought was bad).

 

[danjuno]

Pericles/Joao/Cathy, Culture, T325, 9 Wars.

Just guessing at random after seeing the discussion here:

Pericles happily builds away in his corner while everyone else is dealing with Barbs.

Joao stays on his side of the map and leaves Peri be.

Catherine gets dogpiled.

Asoka gets mauled by Barbs and sits in the corner doing nothing after the landgrab phase. Possible alternate FTD pick?

Zara grabs good land but gets slowed down by barbs.

Hatty Exists.

 

[lymond]

Wildcard Game 1 Announcement posted to CFC's Main Page.

I'm going with Cathy for the win here.

 

[Fippy]

Cathy could get a Peri problem, he will have copper in his borders on T25.
But lucky for her he needs BW & wheel too

 

[lymond]

Cathy could get a Peri problem, he will have copper in his borders on T25.
But lucky for her he needs BW & wheel too

Peri will not be able to resist Cathy's charm...until she destroys him

 

[Eauxps I. Fourgott]

I'm sticking with my gut pick this time and my official entry in the picking contest is for Pericles to win by culture. This presupposes that Cathy fails and is dogpiled out of the game; she's first to die because in that scenario, when would anybody else get around to knocking off any of the others? I have Asoka for second place as his position will eventually be good. Eventually, but not in time to win. Cathy's demise should grab him some extra points as well. The other assumption going into this prediction is that the three northern leaders don't do much, so that leaves plenty of room for it to go awry. I have just six wars and am very cognizant that this might not be nearly enough. We shall see. It's not like I have anywhere to go but up!

 

[Plains-Cow]

Catherine the Cow'd to win! Plains-Joao for second! Moo!

 

[antimony]

A bit late to this, but I agree with a lot of @Eauxps I. Fourgott's detailed analysis above. Joao seems the most sheltered from aggression by other AIs and is a decent pick to finish high in score, maybe 2nd place unless he pulls out a surprise diplo victory again?

I think while Zara may not win he's very likely to create some trouble for the other AIs. He is after all a religious zealot who plots at pleased. If he founds and adopts his own religion it could be bad for Hatty; if he adopts her religion (more likely, I think, given the river and how fast Egypt produces a shrine), he can be a pain for Pericles and Catherine.

Relatedly, while I agree Pericles has a great starting position, it seems unlikely to me he would win by culture, due to both the difficulty for him to found a religion with no culture or religion tech flavor, and the unpredictability of the diplo around him if he does found one.

Hatshepsut's best edge against the barbs might be her ridiculous early game culture production and the capital floodplains that are decent tiles while unimproved. A big question mark for me is whether the resources around her are enough to push her towards early Hunting->AH, or if she's drawn to Masonry too early with that marble.

EDIT: Also I'm curious to see how the war count turns out... on the one hand the field is mostly war averse, but then there will be cultural pressure and religious disagreements, and poor war AIs may just repeatedly peace out and redeclare indecisive wars.

 

[Eauxps I. Fourgott]

See, I don't think Pericles needs to found one of the early religions in order to have a good shot at culture. He just needs to get enough later ones - three is enough to make him likely to take that path - and if my read is correct, his relative lack of barb pressure will comparatively boost his early economy and give him a better position to grab those later religious techs.

 

[Eauxps I. Fourgott]

Meanwhile, this is an incredibly open game in the picking contest. We are closing in on 200 total entries and no leader has more than 20% of the vote to win. All but Joao are within six votes of each other, and even J-man is only seven votes behind fifth place! Second place similarly has nobody higher than 30% of the vote, with only Cathy as first to die (still only 41% of entries) and a Cultural victory (a bit above 50%) as really popular options. It's interesting to have a game with no clear favorite for once!

 

[Kaitzilla]

Raging barb time

Spoiler Wild Card 1 Picks :

1st - Pericles
2nd - Zara
1st to die - Catherine
8 Wars
Turn 344
Space

 

[0urBall]

1st - Asoka
2nd - Hatty
1st to die - None
14 Wars
Turn 330
Space

This is sort of reminding me very much of game 5, I can't see any ruthless leader who will take someone out (apart from Cathy, but I think she'll upset everyone else at various stages and be neutralised by being in dogpiles). So, none to die, but too broad of a split in religions for there to be a runaway culture win, hence the Space pick. Hatty to finish 2nd because she is cursed, and it would be just her luck to finish 2nd in a WC match that only has the winner progressing

 

[Plains-Cow]

I AM SO EXCITED! I love the raging barbs wildcard games!

 

[Fippy]

1h until the cows come out again

 

[Plains-Cow]

1h until the cows come out again

Spoiler "Yaaaaaay!" :

 

[Keler]

Spoiler "Yaaaaaay!" :

View attachment 699471

Who draws these cow pictures in many different posts of yours?

 

[Plains-Cow]

Who draws these cow pictures in many different posts of yours?

IDK, I just find them online.

 

[Saxo Grammaticus]

Hatshepsut/Catherine/Asoka, 7 wars, Cultural, T293. That's more or less my intuition. This is generally the more meh of the two wildcard rosters, and I think the toss-up in the community votes reflects a certain apprehension toward the leaders. While I see the potential for conflict, I am hedging my picks in favor of the barbarians streamlining victory.

 

[Plains-Cow]

IT BEGINNNNNS!