[RD] Super Tuesday

[whyidie]

The polls that we had were predicting murder in the first degree in MA, so it's not a huge surprise.

When can we feel good about the spreads ? If Trump doubles Kasich, I'm throwing in the towel.

 

[Smellincoffee]

I voted in the Democratic primary to partake in a few local elections. For the presidential delegates I chose people who were committed to Martin O'Malley.

My county's results should be interesting, because a lot of people who would have otherwise voted in the Republican primary voted in the Dem primary to thwart a local racist who is running for office.

 

[Archbob]

Trump owning every state besides Texas.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Looks like Kasich's more likely to crack into the win column (VT) than Rubio (VA) right now.

The rural Virginia vote counts are mostly in (about 75%) while the dense population areas are only about 20% counted. In those dense population areas Rubio is getting some heavy tilt in his favor. Can't say how that will close out, but for sure it is going to get closer.

Turns out that even though CNN is prohibited from releasing exit polls since the polls are open in the far west they are getting actual counts. Cruz has the early lead, but certainly isn't going to get the fifty percent all the delegates home run.

Delegate count on the Dem side is going to be a hammering. Sanders is running close and may even win some, but they will be pretty even delegate splits (except Vermont, which hardly has any to begin with) and Clinton is swamping him across the south by two to one (or even three to one).

 

[Takhisis]

Drumpf in all but Texas and Oklahoma so far, Archbob.

 

[BenitoChavez]

So Trump and Hilary are your nominees for 2016. We can now stop all political "news" until after the conventions.

Nothing to see here folks. Move along.

 

[Birdjaguar]

Texas went to Cruz.

 

[Birdjaguar]

And Oklahoma too.

 

[Bootstoots]

On the Dem side, Oklahoma goes to Sanders, his second state of the night. Not going to hold my breath on him getting a third though.

 

[Martin Alvito]

When can we feel good about the spreads ? If Trump doubles Kasich, I'm throwing in the towel.

It was predicted to be even worse than doubling up. The results I'm seeing now are more consistent with the polls than the early returns were.

Usually you have a pretty good idea of what you're looking at even at 10% in, unless the results are heavily biased in terms of where they're coming from. By 30-40% it's likely that a 5% lead is going to stick.

The rural Virginia vote counts are mostly in (about 75%) while the dense population areas are only about 20% counted. In those dense population areas Rubio is getting some heavy tilt in his favor. Can't say how that will close out, but for sure it is going to get closer.

That doesn't seem to have played out all that heavily; the gap narrowed from 6% with 40% counted to 4% with 90% in.

Delegate count on the Dem side is going to be a hammering. Sanders is running close and may even win some, but they will be pretty even delegate splits (except Vermont, which hardly has any to begin with) and Clinton is swamping him across the south by two to one (or even three to one).

It was always going to be a beating, but the margins in the South are pretty savage.

 

[Joecoolyo]

On the Dem side, Oklahoma goes to Sanders, his second state of the night. Not going to hold my breath on him getting a third though.

Massachusetts is close. Colorado and Minnesota can also be good.

5 states was always the high goal for tonight. Once we get past the conservative south, territory becomes a lot more competitive for Sanders.

 

[GoodEnoughForMe]

Cruz wins Texas and Oklahoma, Trump the rest so far, props to Rubio for continuing the long game.

 

[Archbob]

Right now if the anti-trump people are going to rally against anyone, it has to be Cruz. No one else has won any states or has sufficient delegates. Since the establishment isn't going to rally behind Cruz, they're going to get Trumped.

 

[whyidie]

It was predicted to be even worse than doubling up. The results I'm seeing now are more consistent with the polls than the early returns were.

Usually you have a pretty good idea of what you're looking at even at 10% in, unless the results are heavily biased in terms of where they're coming from. By 30-40% it's likely that a 5% lead is going to stick.

I didn't have Trump at nearly 50% in Massachusetts! That rumbling is my "east/north/west" strategy crumbling.

Massachusetts is close. Colorado and Minnesota can also be good.

5 states was always the high goal for tonight. Once we get past the conservative south, territory becomes a lot more competitive for Sanders.

I like his chances especially in Minnesota. Too many career liberals in Colorado to make me comfortable making the call in his favor.

 

[Martin Alvito]

I didn't have Trump at nearly 50% in Massachusetts! That rumbling is my "east/north/west" strategy crumbling.

He was polling around 45%, with Rubio and Kasich in the upper teens.

As far as the delegate situation goes, the good news is that Trump isn't going to hit 50% and opponents are hitting the thresholds, so he's not going to clean up all of the delegates anywhere. It's looking incredibly unlikely that anyone not named Drumpf can get to 1,237, but he can still fail to get there.

The bad news is that Cruz is going to hang around and the Rubio + Kasich combined vote only would have won Virginia and Vermont. It's looking real hard for anybody to stop Herr Drumpf in the winner-take-all and winner-take-all-by-district states that are likely to make or break Trump on winning the nomination outright.

 

[Bootstoots]

Massachusetts is close. Colorado and Minnesota can also be good.

5 states was always the high goal for tonight. Once we get past the conservative south, territory becomes a lot more competitive for Sanders.

Looks like Mass is probably going to be a marginal Clinton win although it will be close. It might plausibly go the other way depending on how its political geography looks - I'm not sure whether the parts that have reported in yet can be expected to favor one over the other.

Sanders' chances of winning various states has relatively little to do with those states' political ideologies, as Oklahoma shows. To be blunt, he needs there to be as few black voters as possible. That seems to be by far the most important factor in determining how likely he is to win various states, given that he loses that demographic almost as badly as Republicans lose them against Democrats. On the other hand, the relatively few poor rural and small-town whites remaining in the Democratic party are actually a strong group for him.

 

[GoodEnoughForMe]

Sanders' getting creamed in the Hispanic vote in Texas 2-1 and losing the black vote 4-1/5-1 everywhere just makes this impossible for him to make any serious headway.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Right now if the anti-trump people are going to rally against anyone, it has to be Cruz. No one else has won any states or has sufficient delegates. Since the establishment isn't going to rally behind Cruz, they're going to get Trumped.

It doesn't matter who bites out the delegates, as long as enough get bitten out. Rubio got some chunks, Cruz got some big chunks. If Kasich can take Ohio that's a big chunk. If Rubio can take Florida that's another big chunk. California is a huge chunk, and it isn't likely to go to Trump.

Nobody else is going to get the majority for the first ballot, but all it takes is keeping Drumpf from getting that majority.

 

[ls612]

Turnout in MN was insane. There were over 1000 people packed into a local elementary school for the caucuses, I was told that was well over twice the previous record. Here's a picture of how packed and hectic it was getting in.

 

[Archbob]

The issue comes with the Winner Take all States. Rubio winning Florida and Kasich winning Ohio doesn't look likely because Trump has the momentum after tonight. If he wins those two states, I don't think they can prevent him from getting the first-ballot.