The Democratic Nomination

[Estebonrober]

Old men should spend their time pontificating. If that’s not right idk what is!

 

[rah]

I don't care who can bring out voters for the primary, I only care if it will bring out voters for the general, in the handful of states that will determine the election. Winning is the only true objective here.

 

[Ironsided]

I’m not Socrates99 but the reasons I like Bernie and think he is better suited to win: His empathy. His considerate nature. He is a social democrat. He will fight for ordinary people. He wants to tax the rich more. He is against the wars. His independent and consistent voting record being on the right side of history. His nose not being up the arse of Schumers Israeli fetish or his hands tied to Pelosis mad obsession with helping Trump by constantly playing to his base. You know everything Hygros old favourite Hillary had so hard to live up to while losing to Trump.

 

[rah]

Yes better suited to win in California and NY, but my cat could win there if she had a D next to her name.
Are those the attributes you need to win in Wisconsin, Michigan, Penn, and the like? That's where the winner will be decided. (at least until Texas flips)

 

[hobbsyoyo]

While Warren is more likeable inside democratic party, I'm not sure she is that likeable with voters . She seems to be the more technocrat type, which for some reason doesn't work in this social media fueled world .

This realization has slowly been dawning on me as well. The first sign should have been when @Owen Glyndwr mocked her 'I have a plan for that'. In my head, that's exactly what we need right now. But that's not necessarily what people care about.

We need a more combative personality to fight republican fakes

Warren used to be pretty combative. She still is at her core against Trump but in the Democratic debates she's mostly been channeling everyone's favorite and wise grandmother.

And every democratic candidate is prepared for Trump Style attacks, since they will come in any case. Is Biden really better prepared for them?

Have you seen him debate?

He's not so coherent these days but yeah, Biden is one of the few Democrats that could meet Trump on that plain successfully. If he can hold his marbles together. I know that sounds super ageist but I'm just going off his really uneven, disjointed and borderline incoherent debate performances last year and not his age.

A dope old always angry pontificating old dude...

If I hear "I wrote the damn bill" one more time

 

[Ironsided]

Yes better suited to win in California and NY, but my cat could win there if she had a D next to her name.
Are those the attributes you need to win in Wisconsin, Michigan, Penn, and the like? That's where the winner will be decided. (at least until Texas flips)

You are the one who likes polls and Bernie polled win against Trump in all those states last i checked, which was some time before christmas.

 

[Hygro]

Old men should spend their time pontificating. If that’s not right idk what is!

I mean some of them should but no need to compress my saying I don’t find him “likeable” as a statement of what people of demographics generally should do.

If I hear "I wrote the damn bill" one more time

I mean it’s awesome when he does

I guess badassery is likeable but the surrounding personality isn’t...

The thing is, everyone, I don’t worry about likeability when I’m liking a candidate or not, not for me and definitely not for others. I used to, but we’re all so different trying to weight a candidate based on that meta game move is, let’s say, suboptimal. I won’t say it doesn’t factor into the gut decision, but I’m not going to highlight it as a reason to vote one way or another.

I can like Bernie without finding him likeable in the amiable sense, so it’s definitely depending on the semantics of what is likeable.

When it comes to likeability Yang is a clear #1, because he’s friendly/amiable in a way that is my culture (urban/educated). I find Warren gives that warm mom vibe that’s very likeable. You guys are feeling differently that’s cool too.

 

[Farm Boy]

Bernie collects consistency vibe, earned or not, which is a kind of premium if somebody thinks the curtain is a bit thin on everything being run by and the conversation set up by serial liars.

It's like counter Assclown in that feel. That rhythm dances to just never believing anyone about anything at all, which frees being cynical and mean about everything(Also why the fight which always I always wind up rehashing in Trumpytown is McCain.(It only goes slightly better than the one that usually follows inquiring regarding tithe and attendance after having a religious motivation cited as political justification.))

 

[rah]

You are the one who likes polls and Bernie polled win against Trump in all those states last i checked, which was some time before christmas.

Who said I liked them. I work for a research company that does polling. 75% of our models showed Hillary winning so. But ours are currently showing Bernie behind trump in most of the battle ground states. BUT it's way to early for me to take them seriously yet. I believe a moderate will have a better chance in the rust belt. But then I'm a moderate so am slightly biased on that account. I may not like Biden but if he's the best hope for a win, i'll vote for him. But then, I'd vote for my cat if I thought she could win.

 

[Lexicus]

A dope old always angry pontificating old dude...

I like that he shows anger instead of acting like a focus group robot

 

[Kyriakos]

Who said I liked them. I work for a research company that does polling. 75% of our models showed Hillary winning so. But ours are currently showing Bernie behind trump in most of the battle ground states.

Seems your models get things consistently wrong then

 

[Berzerker]

That makes Bernie unlikable? Is this a wash now?

No, I actually laughed when he shushed a baby. Thats one of the reasons he can appeal to Trump voters, unfiltered minds 'tell it like it is'. Thats why Harris fell so hard, she went after Biden for school busing then admitted she opposes it too and then Tulsi ripped her top cop record apart.

But I did watch your link and I didn't like his answer about leaving Iraq. He said we have to do it orderly in conjunction with the Iraqi government. We've been hearing that for over a decade. But he did vote against invading Iraq so he's got that on Biden, he needs to keep reminding people of that. Unfortunately if he wins I doubt he'll take Tulsi for VP, but Warren would be a good choice...maybe.

It might be better to have Warren watching the banking system and Tulsi would be good as secyofstate or defense.

Yet you complain when Trump is investigated for it. Great double standard. I've never said Biden shouldn't be investigated.

I supported investigating Trump for a year or more and I was not only convinced Mueller would nail him, I called Trump a Manchurian Candidate. Then I find out it was just a Democrat smear job, and even then I continued supporting Mueller because I figured he wouldn't fabricate a conspiracy and Trump needed to be cleared of the red baiting charges.

Moderator Action: Again, this is not yet another thread about Trump. Stop trying to make it one. --LM

 

[Estebonrober]

I mean some of them should but no need to compress my saying I don’t find him “likeable” as a statement of what people of demographics generally should do.
I mean it’s awesome when he does

I guess badassery is likeable but the surrounding personality isn’t...

The thing is, everyone, I don’t worry about likeability when I’m liking a candidate or not, not for me and definitely not for others. I used to, but we’re all so different trying to weight a candidate based on that meta game move is, let’s say, suboptimal. I won’t say it doesn’t factor into the gut decision, but I’m not going to highlight it as a reason to vote one way or another.

I can like Bernie without finding him likeable in the amiable sense, so it’s definitely depending on the semantics of what is likeable.

When it comes to likeability Yang is a clear #1, because he’s friendly/amiable in a way that is my culture (urban/educated). I find Warren gives that warm mom vibe that’s very likeable. You guys are feeling differently that’s cool too.

I like Warren too but she backed off the M4A thing which made her #2 on my list. I like Yang, but there is just no way from this position I see it happening. Also he does not support M4A either.

 

[Hygro]

I thought they were all for gun control?

Spoiler :

I like that he shows anger instead of acting like a focus group robot

I think anger is weakness. But other things can be weaker.

 

[Sommerswerd]

I think anger is weakness. But other things can be weaker.

Something, something... dark side... Anger leads to hate... hate leads... to suffering...

 

[Narz]

I think anger is weakness. But other things can be weaker.

Anger is invigorating if used correctly.

Bernie is likable to me because he keeps it real which is important to me. Everyone except Yang & Sanders seem to be fake, typical politicians spending more time on PR than the issues.

 

[Camikaze]

FiveThirtyEight released their forecast today, and it will be interesting to see how it performs as they have not done a Democratic primary forecast before. It currently has Biden at 40%, so not-Biden is a favourite. Of the not-Biden options, Sanders leads with a 22% chance, followed by contested convention, with Warren and Buttigieg hot on its heels. The forecast seems to place a lot of stock in the Iowa result, hence Buttigieg having nearly the same chance as Warren despite being well behind in national polls. Biden is forecast to win pretty much every state, but I assume that's helped by the cumulative effect of earlier predicted wins - things in those later states would change rapidly if Biden bombs early on, hence the only 40% chance.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

FiveThirtyEight released their forecast today, and it will be interesting to see how it performs as they have not done a Democratic primary forecast before. It currently has Biden at 40%, so not-Biden is a favourite. Of the not-Biden options, Sanders leads with a 22% chance, followed by contested convention, with Warren and Buttigieg hot on its heels. The forecast seems to place a lot of stock in the Iowa result, hence Buttigieg having nearly the same chance as Warren despite being well behind in national polls. Biden is forecast to win pretty much every state, but I assume that's helped by the cumulative effect of earlier predicted wins - things in those later states would change rapidly if Biden bombs early on, hence the only 40% chance.

I think I agree with their basic prediction stance.

 

[AdrienIer]

Their model seems to think that Biden will either win this or crash and burn early on. There's very little in between. For example in pretty much every contest Biden has a much higher chance of ending up with less than 10% than in the 10-20% range.
They may be right, but they're also saying that this is the first time they make a primary forecast and that they can't be certain it works well.

 

[Sommerswerd]

I don't see how Biden could possibly crash and burn at this point. I think at a minimum, he is in it until the bitter end... ie resisting calls to withdraw until very close to the DNC, with only himself and one other candidate left, if not going into a contested convention or winning the nomination outright.

If he was going to flame out it would have happened already. I guess there is a miniscule chance that the Republicans call Hunter Biden to testify in the Impeachment Trial and he says something that completely derails Biden's campaign... but its doubtful that they call any witnesses, let alone someone who has no knowledge of anything Trump did.