The Fermi Paradox and probability theory.

[Ziggy Stardust]

There is zero proof of what you just said, plus space travel requires massive amounts of energy that makes it practically impossible among other factors.

The Aliens visiting was an illustration how time comes into play. And your point about space travel reinforces my point.

So I think you mean: that's right Ziggy, and added to that spave travel requires .....

 

[Akka]

Fermi's paradox is an extremely interesting case, and the MANY explanations proposed are an even more interesting read (among other things, it allows to remind us all that these guys DO think and ponder every angle and every factor, so don't underestimate them).

I could spend a lot of time writing about a lot of the theories, but I'm lazy so I'll just use a lame cop-out and copy-paste a link about it from Wikipedia

 

[uppi]

There are too many unknown factors in the so-called Fermi paradox to make any useful statement. We have no idea how many habitable planets there are in our vicinity. We have no idea of the probability of life occurring on a habitable planet. We have no idea of the probability of space-faring civilizations evolving. We have no idea whether interstellar space travel is actually feasible. So all is just random guesswork until we get some idea on these probabilities.

There might be dozens of planets brimming with life nearby, which we cannot detect. (I have serious doubts about us being able to detect a civilization like ours on planets orbiting nearby stars). Or all nearby planets are just barren wasteland unable to support life. we just don't know. Trying to deduce a Great Filter from that is just misuse of probability theory.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

never mind

 

[Terxpahseyton]

If the speed of light is indeed a barrier, odds are immense that alien civilisation will never meet because they are isolated.

Yeah freaking this. Perhaps we will never be shiny immaterial sci-fi gods. Perhaps the ultimate evolutionary step will be to have sexy time with 6-boobed alien cat chicks live in paradise in a perfect virtual reality while keeping being stuck in our little niche of the universe until this niche goes to crap and we eventually go extinct. Because the laws of natures just won't allow for more.
I feel like someone just really wanted to have a paradox which sounds like his or her name.

 

[onejayhawk]

There is zero proof of what you just said, plus space travel requires massive amounts of energy that makes it practically impossible among other factors.

There is almost zero proof of what you just said.

The universe has been compared to an organism. The spaces between stars are analogous to cell membranes. If something is able to penetrate any membrane, it eventually penetrates them all. Even assuming sublight travel we would spread across the galaxy in a fairly short time. Once invested, the tendency is to have cycles of greater or lesser activity, but never fade completely away.

Several posts ago the statement was made that we could assume only three or four starfaring civilizations in the galaxy. Examine the assumptions necessary for that outcome to be reasonable. Either life itself is quite rare, complex life is rare, intelligence is very unusual or self extermination is endemic.

You tend to conclude that the conditions for the development of intelligence are very unique or there are alien layers of ruins waiting to be discovered.

J

 

[El_Machinae]

Space travel doesn't really require an incredible amount of energy, but it does take either an incredible amount of time OR energy - you can exchange one for the other. And, due to entropy, time becomes energy as far as the crew is concerned.

That said, if humanity can get onto some type of exponential increase in our tapping of solar energy, we'll find that the E required to travel interstellar distances quickly becomes relatively cheap.

 

[Terxpahseyton]

And, due to entropy, time becomes energy as far as the crew is concerned.

What do you mean by that?

 

[El_Machinae]

Entropy will cause the expedition to degrade over time, unless energy is used to reverse the degradation.

 

[Terxpahseyton]

Try again without using the word entropy plz

 

[El_Machinae]

Over time, the expedition will slowly break down (if nothing else, the organisms inside will die, or the ship will wear out) and because the trip is going to be so astoundingly long, the extent of the breakdown will be massive. Now, the crew can use energy to reverse this breakdown, but it's an engineering challenge, for sure!

 

[Terxpahseyton]

I see, thanks for the translation.

 

[uppi]

That said, if humanity can get onto some type of exponential increase in our tapping of solar energy, we'll find that the E required to travel interstellar distances quickly becomes relatively cheap.

We already have pretty efficient ways to tap into solar energy, so the only way to substantially increase the amount of power is linear scaling by putting up more panels, mirrors or other capturing devices. I don't see where the energy for an exponential increase should be coming from.

That said, I don't think collecting the energy required for interstellar travel is not so much of a problem. The real problem is storing that amount of energy and mass on a spaceship.

 

[El_Machinae]

We already have pretty efficient ways to tap into solar energy, so the only way to substantially increase the amount of power is linear scaling by putting up more panels, mirrors or other capturing devices. I don't see where the energy for an exponential increase should be coming from.

You wouldn't linearly scale. Or, you don't need to. We're basically looking at the power of compound interest.

The energy for every additional panel comes from each panel put up before it.

 

[dutchfire]

We already have pretty efficient ways to tap into solar energy, so the only way to substantially increase the amount of power is linear scaling by putting up more panels, mirrors or other capturing devices. I don't see where the energy for an exponential increase should be coming from.

That said, I don't think collecting the energy required for interstellar travel is not so much of a problem. The real problem is storing that amount of energy and mass on a spaceship.

Also: Isn't there less light -> lower efficiency of solar panels in the interstellar medium compared to the neighbourhood of our sun?

 

[El_Machinae]

Oh, it's logarithmic, for sure. Or (at the very best) a series of S-curves, if we eventually hop from star to star. I just meant that it could continue to be exponential for all intents and purposes. Once we reach an upper limit regarding what's feasible with Sol, the entire issue will be vastly different.

 

[BvBPL]

We already have pretty efficient ways to tap into solar energy, so the only way to substantially increase the amount of power is linear scaling by putting up more panels, mirrors or other capturing devices. I don't see where the energy for an exponential increase should be coming from.

That's a pretty good proof of why there isn't any intelligent life out there. If there was, we'd see distortion from Dyson spheres.

 

[classical_hero]

There is almost zero proof of what you just said.

The universe has been compared to an organism. The spaces between stars are analogous to cell membranes. If something is able to penetrate any membrane, it eventually penetrates them all. Even assuming sublight travel we would spread across the galaxy in a fairly short time. Once invested, the tendency is to have cycles of greater or lesser activity, but never fade completely away.

Several posts ago the statement was made that we could assume only three or four starfaring civilizations in the galaxy. Examine the assumptions necessary for that outcome to be reasonable. Either life itself is quite rare, complex life is rare, intelligence is very unusual or self extermination is endemic.

You tend to conclude that the conditions for the development of intelligence are very unique or there are alien layers of ruins waiting to be discovered.

J

Well to get to Mars it takes close to two years and that s our neighbour and alien life is supposed to be on distant planets. Even then the amount of energy needed to get off this planet is large. http://creation.com/did-life-come-from-outer-space#energy and http://creation.com/g-forces-space-travel-problem both do a better job at explaining why your wrong.

 

[Akka]

That's a pretty good proof of why there isn't any intelligent life out there. If there was, we'd see distortion from Dyson spheres.

This affirmation implies a lot of things as certainty that are absolutely not certain.

 

[onejayhawk]

Well to get to Mars it takes close to two years and that s our neighbour and alien life is supposed to be on distant planets. Even then the amount of energy needed to get off this planet is large. http://creation.com/did-life-come-from-outer-space#energy and http://creation.com/g-forces-space-travel-problem both do a better job at explaining why your wrong.

The amount of energy needed to get off planet is tiny. We are not good at applying it, so the process is very inefficient. This is purely an engineering and materials problem, though a large one.

J