Timsup2nothin
Deity
- Joined
- Apr 2, 2013
- Messages
- 46,737
Then do please make me understand.
You said something to the effect of "ignore fools rather than encourage them with attention." My response referred to the expected longevity of fools.
Then do please make me understand.
You said something to the effect of "ignore fools rather than encourage them with attention." My response referred to the expected longevity of fools.
Trump is the oldest person to ever be elected President.
NopeI wonder how many Cuban refugees went to Jamaica, Bahamas, Haiti, Cayman Islands, or Turks and Caicos. Do we ever see the Cubans who fled to America described as "economic migrants" when those other countries would have been closer for many of them?
Even after making this hypothetical correction, along with all the other corrections (age, income, etc.) some minorities are still over-represented.
Care to dig up articles on long term trends? Especially focusing on violent crime? But yes, in Western countries the trend tends to be that natives commit less and less crimes. Minorities still tend to be over-represented when it comes to crimes though.
Don't acknowledge statistics? It's funny you should say that, here I have been posting statistics for quite a while now, yet nothing seems to stick.
So you contest that my very first post that I made in this thread was not at all relevant? The one where I explain why the right wing parties keep gaining popularity?
So we agree that integration is not working?
That sounds wonderful. I bet you also hold hands and sing kumbaya with your immigrant neighbors. Truly, we could all learn a lot from you.
What are these integration problems? Well crime rates are one problem.
It's a well known statistical fact? Then why are you still debating this?
As for why some immigrants are over-represented, like I said, I don't know why that is, I only know that that is the reality we live in.
The way I interpret this statement is that you admit minorities are over-represented in crime.Long story short:
Which we already knew. without all your hypotheticals. It seems you are going around in a circle without coming to any proper conclusion:
Ah, so integration was never the goal? The idea was that we just import all the violence, political instability, dictatorships and religious fundamentalism into the West, to live in parallel communities? No integration needed? Well I guess by those standards multiculturalism can be considered a success.Not at all. I explained how the concept of 'integration' is misguided. We already have multicultural societies. We should learn to deal with that.
Time and time again I have shown you statistics proving my point, while you've not been able to come up with even a coherent argument.Not really. They are a perceived problem. In reality minority criminality isn't that much higher than average.
I'm not. But you are. And not very well, I might add.
I misread something? Where? Care to show me?Well, fortunately for you, people have also investigated that. Perhaps you should take note of their suggestions instead of posting articles without properly reading them.
@yung.carl.jung:
(1) Before I start, I just want to say that I appreciate that you took your time to think about my arguments, read the links I provided, and, most importantly, to respond in a civil and productive fashion. I want to emphasize this because it is a rare occurence, certainly in this forum, but also in society in general these days. I consider this to be a hugely detrimental by-product of Merkel's decision to open the floodgates and let everyone in; the result of this decision as well as the one-sided reporting by the media has divided German society, it has cut our country in two. The political atmosphere has become toxic, to the point where it is often impossible to discuss these issues. The split goes through families, through year-long relationships with colleges. Lifelong friendships have been destroyed. This is at least as big a tragedy as the consequences of unvetted mass Muslim immigration will be for our children and grandchildren.
Who has the right answers is one thing. But that we can engage with each other in a civil manner, and hopefully profit from thinking about the different perspectives on offer is even more important.
(2) As a general statement it is absolutely correct, as proven by the numbers given in the study I mentioned in my former post. Obviously not "all" the media is biased, and the bias shown in the same newspaper may strongly vary. But 82% of reports on migrants being positively connotated is a figure we cannot just shrug off. In my post I was specifically talking about the mainstream media. You mention the rise of alternative media, which in a sense proves my point - the need for these alternatives lies in the fact that people do not feel adequately informed through the mainstream media anymore. The scandalous decision of the Tagesschau which I talked about before not to even mention the murderer of the 19-year-old student in Freiburg is only the most recent (and certainly one of the most aggrevating) instances.
(3) The borders are fuzzy. Throughout the mainstream media we have seen manipulations by omitting data, reporting selectively, highlighting certain cases that fit the narrative while excluding others etc. While I agree that most journalists wouldn't actually take a study and change the numbers, the manipulation is taking place nevertheless. These are often things that the untrained observer won't even notice. My wife was born in Poland and her parents grew up under communism. It is astonishing how keenly aware they have been trained to spot every instance of media manipulation, to see through what the news stations and journalists would like you to believe. It is also no surprise that in East Germany people are better trained to uncover such manipulation than we are in the West.
(4) Some of the more obvious examples of this manipulation include: the use of the term "refugee", which is still the main term to talk about the migrants, although we knew from the beginning that most of them are not refugees (on the harm that this has done I recommend this article). Choosing unveiled, female migrants with babys as interview partners to give an insight into migrant camps, when we know that the vast majority of migrants are young men. The not-reporting of studies which show inconvenient attitudes of Muslims towards German society and liberal values, like the one from the university of Münster in June 2016, which shows catastrophic results. The narrative, which to be fair has meanwhile been discarded, that the migrants are well-educated and will take care of our "Fachkräftemangel". The insultingly absurd notion that no German citizen will have any less money as a result of taking in millions of migrants. The more or less complete omission of talking about what is essentially a new Stasi, the Amadeu-Antonio Foundation; if it is mentioned at all, then often as a beneficial institution in the "fight against the right". The sheer countless cases of migrant criminality which are reported in the local news very rarely make it into the national news, and if they do they are "isolated cases" ("Einzelfälle") (Many of the crimes that appear in the local news are collected here or here). Describing peaceful demonstrations by groups which oppose the migrant policy as "mobs", "Pöbel", "Pack", or even comparing them to the Nazis. Etc etc. I could go on for ever, but I think you get the point. And as I said, these are only a few of the most obvious cases.
(5) Well, it's a matter of definition. As I said earlier, I always considered myself as being on the left, and from my perspective the Zeit is so far out there, that "far-left" hardly captures their position! You say they are moving with the party-lines of the Greens, which I agree with, but I consider the Greens to be a far-left party, perhaps even more so than the PdL. They are quite literally the SJW party of Germany. Not only is their policy driven uncritically by buzzwords like "diversity" or "genderisation", their leaders, among them the vice president of the Bundestag Claudia Roth, proudly march on demonstrations behind banners saying things like "Deutschland, du miese Stück Scheiße!" and "Deutschland verrecke!"
(6) I should note that I was ordering the Zeit until September 2015, even though I was becoming increasingly dissatisfied with it before. But then, as my wife and I watched in horror as Merkel single-handedly broke all German and European laws regarding immigration, and hundreds of thousands of young Muslim men from the most illiberal and violent parts of the world started flowing into our country, completely unchecked and unvetted, the Zeit journalists went into an orgasmic state of how wonderful this was, calling it the new German "Sommermärchen" and labeling any critics as Nazis. Needless to say, I immediately canceled my subscription and have viewed the paper with utter disdain ever since.
(7) It all boils down to what we are talking about. There are some great German alternative news sites which offer excellent insight into the matter and provide the investigative and critical journalism we should expect in a free society (I mentioned Tichys Einblick as my personal favourite). But I'd argue that mainstream media has largely failed us on the topics of immigration and Islam. Not just the usual left-leaning suspects, but also former more conservative papers like Die Welt. Certainly our public TV news stations have been nothing but an utter disgrace to our human intellect. That doesn't mean that these news sources are completely worthless, but they are extremely unreliable to get an accurate picture of what is going on in our country.
(8) I didn't refer to them as being unbiased, respectable =/= without bias! That said, I don't care much who the people behind the site are, I look at the quality of the articles. There are some excellent journalists writing for Gatestone, like Douglas Murray or Soeren Kern. What I like is that the articles are very fact-based, with almost every statement hyperlinked. You suggest that their agenda is anti-immigrant, but I strongly disagree; they are not against immigration per se, rather they don't shy away from reporting the problems with immigration. I for one want to be informed about these problems. And if my own country's media won't do the job, then I am grateful that foreign sites do.
(9) For time reasons I won't go into the details of what you wrote about the individual articles. I believe it's a fair summary to say that, apart from some minor legitimate gripes you have with the presentation of the articles, you acknowledge that many of the issues that are mentioned are indeed serious problems and represent a very concerning development in Germany. Yet you criticize that you have "still have not seen any official statistics on non-German crime in contrast to German crime". Does that sum up your position correctly?
Because if it does, I'd agree, the Gatestone articles don't offer that. For that we need other sources.
(10) According to the Statistisches Bundesamt, foreigners, who make up about 10% of the population, in 2013 were involved in between 26% and 33% of crimes involving other people. The same trend is also shown by the incarceration rates, where foreigners are likewise strongly overrepresented.
This article references that foreigners were involved in 28% of all crimes in 2014. The author filters out the crimes that could only be committed by foreigners and arrives at 24.3%. I wonder if there aren't crimes which can virtually only be committed by natives, which we would have to factor in as well. But the fact remains that foreigners are strongly overrepresented.
Also, judging by these numbers, we can expect that people with foreign backgrounds who have obtained the German citizenship and therefore are counted as Germans in these statistics are more likely to commit crimes as well, since there is no reason to believe that receiving a German passport should influence this general trend. If this is true, the situation would be even more bleak.
(11) Now, these numbers don't tell us anything about crimes committed by the recent migrants. Since I can't find any direct comparison, let us try it this way: In the article you posted by in the Welt, it says that approximately 70,000 crimes were attempted by recent migrants in three months. Per year that would mean 280,000 crimes. What is the number of recent migrants? One million? 1.5 million? Noone knows exactly (which is a travesty in itself), but let's say we multiply the number by the factor of 60 to reach the 82 million people living in Germany. That would get us to 16.8 million crimes which are on average committed by recent migrants per year. In 2014, there were slightly over 6 million registered crimes in Germany. So recent migrants are almost three times as likely to commit crimes than the Germans and non-Germans previously living in Germany.
(12) Now, this is a somewhat rickety calculation, and the margin for error is rather wide. But we should note that this does fit the general perception and the stories we hear from police and other official sources. For example I read recently that a policeman said that he had had 700 police operations in the 3-4 refugee homes in his area in the last nine months. In Northrhine-Westphalia alone there were 78,000 police operations in refugee homes in 2015, that's 214 a day. I hope you can admit that these are devastating numbers.
(13) Just to add another thought, imagine you migrated to another country, either to seek refuge or for economic reasons. Wouldn't you do your best to abide by the rules of the country you moved into? Shouldn't we expect that our new guests show some kind of thankfulness for letting them in, paying 50 billion euros for them annually, and offering them language courses and what not? Shouldn't we expect them to be less involved in crime than everyone else? Shouldn't we at least expect them not to make our inner cities unsafe, deal drugs, rob our citizens and rape our women at a disproportionally high rate? I apologize for the suggestive tone. It was not meant that way, it was really just because I didn't have that much time! But I believe my previous paragraph is sufficient to completely refute the assumptions the Zeit journalist makes.
(14) Quite the contrary, I am glad you had these positive experiences. Please note though that other people have vastly different experiences which are a lot less rosy. Unfortunately you don't write when you lived in Chemnitz. Was it after the mass influx of migrants in late 2015? How big was the refugee home? Was it the only one in town? How many Muslims were living in Chemnitz before? All this information is rather relevant.
(15) But the most important factor, if I may say, is the following: you are not a woman. I personally have also not had any problems, meaning that I haven't been attacked, harrassed or robbed. Men are not prone to be the targets of this behaviour, at least not nearly to the extent that women are. I mean you said yourself that your girlfriend got harrassed. This stuff happens to girls and women constantly. As I said, my wife has been harrassed a couple of times. Her friends report similar stories. I'm a teacher - in front of my school a 10-year-old girl from 5th grade was kissed on the mouth by a "refugee". The class teachers discussed the situation in our classes, and it turned out that most girls in my class (8th grade) had been harrassed in one way or another by these people. It's not the German men who don't go out after dark anymore. It's not the men who are responsible for the run on pepperspray. It's the women. Read this article. It's a symptomatic story which we come across again and again. Even older women cannot feel safe, as witnessed by the 79-year-old who was raped while she was paying a visit to the grave of her dead husband, or the 90-year-old who was raped after coming out of church. These are horrendous events. And they were not even imaginable before 2015. On the other hand, it shouldn't be too surprising that things like this will happen if you let in millions of people from the most misogynistic parts of the world.
(16) I didn't say that Moroccans or Algerians in general were involved in that much crime, I specifically talked about migrants. I don't use the term "refugees", because, well you know, most of them aren't refugees. I am sorry if that caused confusion. Anyway, I think we can both acknowledge how utterly abysmal these figures are. Note that for Algerians with 38.6% the number is even higher. This article even says that in Saxony 81.9%(!) of Algerian migrants and 67.6% of Tunisian migrants get involved in crime. Even if the sample numbers are comparatively low, that is absolutely insane!
Als Grundlage für eine solche Fragestellung bietet sich primär die bekannteste und am häufigsten zitierte Kriminalstatistik an: Die Polizeiliche Kriminalstatistik (PKS). Doch bringen Erkenntnisse auf Grund der PKS naturgemäß einige methodische Probleme mit sich, wenn man sich vor Augen führt, was die PKS eigentlich abbildet. Die Polizeiliche Kriminalstatistik erfasst alle Straftaten die bei der Polizei angezeigt werden. Dies bedeutet jedoch gerade nicht, dass die vermeintlichen Täter auch verurteilt worden sind oder die Straftat auch nur tatsächlich begangen wurden. Wird ein Strafverfahren eingestellt oder der Täter freigesprochen, taucht die vermeintlich begangene Straftat dennoch in der PKS auf.
von den 22,0% der im Jahre 2006 registrierten „nichtdeutschen Tatverdächtigen“ sind lediglich 28,2% ausländische Arbeitnehmer, Gewerbetreibende, Studenten und Schüler (Bundeskriminalamt 2007, S. 105, 116), und das bedeutet: Lediglich 6,2% aller Tatverdächtigen gehören diesen Migrantengruppen an.
Care to dig up articles on long term trends? Especially focusing on violent crime?
But yes, in Western countries the trend tends to be that natives commit less and less crimes. Minorities still tend to be over-represented when it comes to crimes though.
This is getting ridiculous. My original claim was that immigrants increase crime. I have also proven that claim.
The way I interpret this statement is that you admit minorities are over-represented in crime.
Ah, so integration was never the goal? The idea was that we just import all the violence, political instability, dictatorships and religious fundamentalism into the West, to live in parallel communities? No integration needed? Well I guess by those standards multiculturalism can be considered a success.
I misread something? Where? Care to show me?
Time and time again I have shown you statistics proving my point, while you've not been able to come up with even a coherent argument.
http://www.economist.com/news/brief...rime-even-face-high-unemployment-and-economic
Yes, but most trends show that crime in the immigrant communities, like in Germany, is also on the decline. I mean, aggregate crime has continued to decline sharply even as immigrant populations have grown, so even that should indicate something.
http://andrewhammel.typepad.com/.a/6a00d834516a2569e2017d408625b2970c-popup
The Swedish crime survey shows no remarkable change since 2005: https://www.bra.se/bra/bra-in-english/home/crime-and-statistics/swedish-crime-survey.html
You would hardly get that impression from some of the apocalyptic coverage of the country.
Here is an Yle article on the situation in Finland: http://yle.fi/uutiset/3-8268286
So, just so you know, we are talking about an increasingly minor problem. With the aggregate numbers rapidly becoming trivial; crime will be soon extinct in the West. It has become a nuisance rather than a real problem.
Meanwhile, all you can do is complain that immigrants make up a larger share of this trivial number, even as the number is going down for everyone. So why get so worked up about a problem that seems to be solving itself? By all indications, immigrant crime is an ephemeral problem.
And it's not as if the problem is likely to ever effect you. Immigrant crime is usually isolated to a handful of troubled neighborhoods.
I know several people who claimed asylum in Europe and i knew them in their home country, they weren't even that bad off. I mean there was even a TV presenter here who left for Europe claiming to be Syrian until he was recognized.
Of course these are just people I know so I can't claim to say how many people who are not poor or very poor are among the economic migrants.
However I think it's likely people who are in very desperate circumstances probably in many cases couldn't find the money to pay smugglers.
Another reason to discourage it, this encourages people to make the dangerous journey across the sea where many will drown.
It also strains the resources available for legitimate refugees. People lie to get accepted which puts further suspicion on people who are legitimate refugees.
I met someone once who told me he was in England when he was 20 but told authorities he was 16 and he was placed with a family.
This point about crime was only one minor point in my original post, until Agent327 questioned it, so I showed it to be true.
Crime rates would have dropped even more, had we not taken in these high crime minorities. As evidenced by the over-representation.You really, really haven't. Immigration only marginally increases crime rates, which, as mentioned, are dropping - and have been dropping for quite awhile. So you would need to prove that this drop in overall crime rates is somehow nullified by immigration. And you have done nothing of the sort.
Well, finally. At least we're making some progress.You want me to admit a statistically rather well-known fact? But wait, here's where we're going:
I was talking about immigration in general. As for quest workers specifically, integration wasn't the goal? Even when it turned out they were going to stay?Again, you are making a number of unfounded statements that lack any relation to statistical facts. So I'll just stick with the first: integration was never the goal. No, it wasn't, as our 'guest workers' were expected to leave after a job well done.
To the first: read above. To the second: as already mentioned, you've done a fine selection of statistics that serve your purpose, yes. Unfortunately, statistics are rather useless without an overall picture and context. What you do is proceed from your context to the statistics that agree with your picture. Unfortunately that doesn't help anybody, as it explains nothing and suggests no solution.
Migration is a thing of all ages. One can either complain about it without relevant facts, or one can deal with it. What characterizes populism today is, sadly, just the first.
I did no such thing, nor did you. I questioned its relevance.
Another typical fairy tale 'immigrant crime is high' (it's not, really). But keep repeating it enough times, and you might actually believe it. The underlying presupposition is more insidious, however: 'a large proportion of immigrants are criminals' (again, not true).
This is similar to our Grundgesetz article 16 about who is potentially allowed asylum in Germany. This is a rather narrow definition (note that it does not include people escaping a war, for example), but it is the legal definition according to our law, and I'd warn about arbitrarily widening the term, if we want to keep our laws from being reshaped at a whim, depending on what may sound nice. It is also a definition that shows that only a tiny minority of the migrants who recently came to Germany are refugees.owing to well-founded fear of being persecuted for reasons of race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group or political opinion, is outside the country of his nationality and is unable or, owing to such fear, is unwilling to avail himself of the protection of that country
You are illegitimately broadening the term "refugee". People like this are not refugees, and we cannot just ignore our legal definitions and pretend that they are. This may sound like I lack empathy, which is not the case. The problem is that a refugee has certain rights and claims which other migrants don't. If we were to count everyone who has difficulties surviving each new day as a refugee, there would be hundreds of millions, if not billions of refugees. And they all would potentially have claims to asylum in Europe. Obviously, this would be completely unfeasible.But someone who lives at the absolute limit, someone who cannot afford food, fresh water, toilet paper, clothing and other necessities is a legitimate refugee and should be treated as such.