US Debt Ceiling

[amadeus]

My suspicion is that Congressional Republicans are playing chicken knowing they are going to be the first to swerve, but have to maintain the appearance that they’re willing to go all the way.

Has a shutdown ever been beneficial, electorally, to the GOP? I don’t think so, and I suspect the party insiders know this. However, backing down too quickly would upset some of the flanks, so there’s this tightrope walk that has to be done in order to preserve their image without appearing weak.

I’m guessing Biden will make some promises, not everything the GOP wants, then renege on some of them and we’ll all forget about it in five years like every other time.

 

[Samson]

Not really. You know it, I know it, we have spent years telling each other it. But yes, the US government being unable to function at a task as basic as budgeting process is more dangerous than a rifle.

Describing it as "budgeting process" kind of makes it seem like a maths problem. It is just getting two spreadsheets to line up, when the most powerful organization in the world controls both of them and the rules for what "line up" means.

Has a shutdown ever been beneficial, electorally, to the GOP?

When one talks about "electorally beneficial" in a two party state it is a zero sum game, right? So it will always help one side and hurt the other? Is there any study on which party is hurt, and what matters? It is the congress's job, right, so they "should" be blamed, but are they?

 

[amadeus]

When one talks about "electorally beneficial" in a two party state it is a zero sum game, right? So it will always help one side and hurt the other? Is there any study on which party is hurt, and what matters? It is the congress's job, right, so they "should" be blamed, but are they?

As in this article from the Brookings Institution, Republicans took the brunt of the political damage during the 2011 debt crisis. They're saying this time around it is more evenly spread. As for who should be blamed, I suppose on any one issue alone it would be fair to say there could be a blame-able party (I mean, group, not political party), but I think in the public consciousness it gets reduced to a few squishy variables of "is the economy good?" Congress will take less flak if the answer is no than the administration, however much in reality Congress controls the purse strings.

 

[Farm Boy]

It's a political process. So it is a question of functional governance. One that repeats so often so as to be the mundane function of this unit of governance.

It's weird and relative. We have people advocating tax increases, right? I often do too. And people asking for everyone to pay for education and all manner of things. Last year I worked pretty hard. Took time, changed careers, focused on getting my son neurological and social services and a well-written and tuned IEP with school. Managed to make in the range of 30-50 annual income. Good year for me. Since I won't ever be able to meaningfully claim what my wife paid in(even at the half spouse rate) and our child is under 15, I am in a draw period of SS benefits now. They're what I've been living on. Since I worked and turned a profit, they took the benefits all back(they're a floor, nothing else, is the answer). Since I worked for myself, instead of a corporate master, my payroll taxes are double what they were for a wage. Plus, since it was first year farm income, I got an abeyance on the taxes. They didn't charge me until April 15th18th this year. Once the benefits went away and the taxes came out, I cleared ~60% tax rate on my work, plus the abeyance is over. I now have prepaid taxes on grain I will plan to have grown and guessed to have sold by the end of '23. There will be two more quarters of prepay before fall. By that point, I'll be ~100% effective tax hoping the sales make me whole. Only way I made it work last year was I just flat dropped health insurance for 6 months.

Yes, SNAP is over 50% of the farm bill. Yes, the Democrat controlled national government immediately defunded school lunches and blamed Rand Paul. Yes, I think it would be more fair if somebody else's taxes went up first. And yes, I care about the budget questions. But governance still needs to happen. It not happening is worse.

 

[Samson]

As in this article from the Brookings Institution, Republicans took the brunt of the political damage during the 2011 debt crisis. They're saying this time around it is more evenly spread. As for who should be blamed, I suppose on any one issue alone it would be fair to say there could be a blame-able party (I mean, group, not political party), but I think in the public consciousness it gets reduced to a few squishy variables of "is the economy good?" Congress will take less flak if the answer is no than the administration, however much in reality Congress controls the purse strings.

This happens quite a lot, right? Both parties play the same game when they are in either position? Presumably some data driven approach, like which party tends to gain in the polls depending on which variables?

It's a political process. So it is a question of functional governance. One that repeats so often so as to be the mundane function of this unit of governance.

It's weird and relative. We have people advocating tax increases, right? I often do too. And people asking for everyone to pay for education and all manner of things. Last year I worked pretty hard. Took time, changed careers, focused on getting my son neurological and social services and a well-written and tuned IEP with school. Managed to make in the range of 30-50 annual income. Good year for me. I've been living on social security benefits. Since I won't ever be able to meaningfully claim what my wife paid in(even at the half spouse rate) and our child is under 15, I am in a draw period of SS benefits now. They're what I've been living on. Since I worked and turned a profit, they took the benefits all back(they're a floor, nothing else, is the answer). Since I worked for myself, instead of a corporate master, my payroll taxes are double what they were for a wage. Plus, since it was first year farm income, I got an abeyance on the taxes. They didn't charge me until April 15th this year. Once the benefits went away and the taxes came out, I cleared ~60% tax rate on my work, plus the abeyance is over. I now have prepaid taxes on grain I will plan to have grown and guessed too have sold by the end of '23. There will be two more quarters of prepay before fall. By that point, I'll be ~100% effective tax hoping the sales make me whole.

Yes, SNAP is over 50% of the farm bill. Yes, the Democrat controlled national government immediately defunded school lunches and blamed Rand Paul. Yes, I think it would be more fair if somebody else's taxes went up first. And yes, I care about the budget questions. But governance still needs to happen. It not happening is worse.

I suppose this comes to who "should" get blamed. It is congress who decide the taxing and spending, right? If they do not agree it is congress who "got the spreadsheets not lining up", and so should decide how to deal with all the cheques they have written?

 

[Farm Boy]

Congress is better. More executive fiat layered on top of everyone fiat, probably bad.

 

[EnglishEdward]

.... It is congress who decide the taxing and spending, right? If they do not agree it is congress who "got the spreadsheets not lining up", and so should decide how to deal with all the cheques they have written?

And failing that, having their salary stopped.

 

[Farm Boy]

lolnever. Not them.

 

[Ajidica]

We'll see a deal at 11:59 pm on May 31st, consisting of an extension and some face saving spending cuts. McCarthy has to keep the bath salt brigade happy, but his corporate masters also can't let the US default.

 

[Birdjaguar]

There will be two more quarters of prepay before fall. By that point, I'll be ~100% effective tax hoping the sales make me whole. Only way I made it work last year was I just flat dropped health insurance for 6 months.

Not prepaying quarterly income taxes costs you a penalty come filing time in April. Interest and penalties are charged depending upon how late each payment is. I stopped making prepayments a decade ago and just pay the penalty every year in April. It costs me a couple of hundred dollars but is worth it to just ignore the payments. Cash flow for you seems important so it might be helpful to just pay the prepays later in the year when you have the money in hand. I do not have experience with holding off the employment taxes though.

 

[Farm Boy]

I'll inquire as to the size of penalties from the tax man.

 

[FriendlyFire]

Yes, SNAP is over 50% of the farm bill. Yes, the Democrat controlled national government immediately defunded school lunches and blamed Rand Paul. Yes, I think it would be more fair if somebody else's taxes went up first. And yes, I care about the budget questions. But governance still needs to happen. It not happening is worse.

So this was Democrats fault that Rand Paul blocked the free meals bill and instead return to discounted school meals
Is this because democrats caved ? I dont blame you for shifting majority of the blame onto the Dems, but this has long been the standard MO for the GOP to get there way

Biden signs law to help feed kids, but free school meals for all are going away​

After passing the House in a 376-42 vote on Thursday afternoon, the bill went before the Senate late Thursday evening, where Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., pushed for the return of the reduced-price meal category. With that change made, the bill passed unanimously in the Senate as the clock ticked toward getting the bill passed in time, forcing the bill back to the House for a second vote on Friday.
Congress passed the legislation Friday and Biden signed it Saturday. By extending some of the dozens of child nutrition waivers

Biden signs law to help feed kids, but free school meals for all are going away

New law attempts to fill some of the gaps by extending waivers for summer meals and providing other flexibilities. It will not make reduced-price meals free as originally planned.

www.nbcnews.com

 

[Broken_Erika]

Free school meals are for Commies!!!!!
Better dead than red!

 

[Farm Boy]

Yes. When the program is wildly popular and you control the House of Representatives, the Senate, and the White House - if you don't fight for it, instead scrapping it at the first hint of political cover, you didn't want it in the first place. Prepare for Joy. That's how this works.

 

[Hygro]

My suspicion is that Congressional Republicans are playing chicken knowing they are going to be the first to swerve, but have to maintain the appearance that they’re willing to go all the way.

Has a shutdown ever been beneficial, electorally, to the GOP? I don’t think so, and I suspect the party insiders know this. However, backing down too quickly would upset some of the flanks, so there’s this tightrope walk that has to be done in order to preserve their image without appearing weak.

I’m guessing Biden will make some promises, not everything the GOP wants, then renege on some of them and we’ll all forget about it in five years like every other time.

This is a sober prediction of events.

 

[Kaitzilla]

Today it was discovered that even in Civ 4 you can have a national debt.
Which should be impossible.

Negative gold

I had funny thing happen to me in latest NC game. My treasury got to -1 gold. I believe it happened by me spending my exact treasury on research and then enemy privateer plundered some gold from me. This was funny until I realized that I was unable to whip in any of my cities. Confirmed this...

forums.civfanatics.com

Having this national debt disables slavery.
Where is your god now budget hawks?!

 

[RobAnybody]

This happens quite a lot, right? Both parties play the same game when they are in either position? Presumably some data driven approach, like which party tends to gain in the polls depending on which variables?

Oddly, no. The Dems don't play politics with the Debt Ceiling when they are in the Minority. They voted to increase it 3 times under Trump while not doing this brinksmanship the Republicans *always* do under a Dem President. It's one of the things I like about them - they aren't hypocrites on this particular issue. They are always for a clean "we pay our bills" policy, even when the R's are the ones responsible for the bills (usually from tax cuts).

 

[amadeus]

This is a sober prediction of events.

Also, Republicans need the support of the construction industry, and if they keep blocking this ceiling-raising project the workmen will all be out of jobs.

 

[GoodEnoughForMe]

My suspicion is that Congressional Republicans are playing chicken knowing they are going to be the first to swerve, but have to maintain the appearance that they’re willing to go all the way.

Has a shutdown ever been beneficial, electorally, to the GOP? I don’t think so, and I suspect the party insiders know this. However, backing down too quickly would upset some of the flanks, so there’s this tightrope walk that has to be done in order to preserve their image without appearing weak.

I’m guessing Biden will make some promises, not everything the GOP wants, then renege on some of them and we’ll all forget about it in five years like every other time.

I think the biggest flaw in this hope (and maybe it’ll happen, who knows), is the idea the Republicans are working towards maximizing electoral results. They’re plainly not; see abortion, their overuse of “woke” as an insult (polling horribly), and DeSantis and other presidential hopefuls still talking about cutting social security and medicare. Yes, holding the line until midnight hour and then folding and trying to say “we’re the mature party” may seem smart to insiders, but I don’t even know if that is the electorally soundest result - a real nihilist might argue tanking the economy OR sticking to their guns no matter what is more successful, given the Dems hold the presidency and the base demands blood. And again, even if it was the soundest move to cave from a “getting the most votes” strategy, the GOP is less interested in getting the most votes and more interested in getting just enough that they can work to make sure they don’t have to rely on everyone’s votes ever again.

 

[EnglishEdward]

Groups of people who talk themselves into group think frequently make irrrational collective decisions.

I find it very difficult to predict what will happen in the USA now.