What is going on in the UK?

[uppi]

@ Samson

I am sceptical of many crime statistics.

In many instances crime is not reported and even if it is, the identity
(and therefore immigration status) of the criminals is often unknown.

I suspect that there other reasons why there has been a crime drop
in some categories. I will give you some examples of my guesses why.


(1) The cheap availability of new goods, via Shein and Temu etc, means there is less
benefit in burgling and competing with charity shops etc, to sell stolen goods.

(2) A failure to prosecute rape means there is less incentive for it to be reported.

(3) Many younger people adopt a policy of not carrying cash, so pick pocketing
and mugging are less attractive.

(4) Roll out of CCTV and facial recognition may be having some impact at crime hot spots.

I could go on.

Anyway I won't pretend to have quantitative evidence to support my guesses.

All your points only address drops in the overall crime rate. However, this specific statistic shows that more immigrants does not mean more (reported) crime. If immigration caused crime, we would expect that more immigrants would result in more crime, wouldn't we? None of your points address that.

 

[EnglishEdward]

All your points only address drops in the overall crime rate. However, this specific statistic shows that more immigrants does not mean more (reported) crime.

I am not making the argument that more immigrants simply means more reported crime.

And I have already explained why I am sceptical of the referenced statistics.

And looking further at the report, it is so heavily caveated, it is not sensible to conclude much from it.

If immigration caused crime, we would expect that more immigrants would result in more crime, wouldn't we? None of your points address that.

A point is if the population increases by 1% pa due to net immigration and the immigrant crime rate is
the same as the indigenous crime rate that would not result in an annual increase in crime of 1%, if
there are other changes going on that would have resulted in perhaps a 10% to 20% drop in crime rate.

 

[Cloud_Strife]

So, out of those 7, and i'm sure there's more, how many Crimes were committed by British people during the same time? Or what the actual percentage of Asylum Seekers/Refugees who commit those kind of crimes. Those would be a worthy studies.

no you see, crimes by immigrants are somehow worse because

 

[Samson]

Who is paying the most for tax rises in the budget?

Income tax threshold freeze will hit poorer households harder, experts say

 

[Manfred Belheim]

So, out of those 7, and i'm sure there's more, how many Crimes were committed by British people during the same time? Or what the actual percentage of Asylum Seekers/Refugees who commit those kind of crimes. Those would be a worthy studies.

British people are from Britain and are necessarily therefore in Britain, unless someone else has allowed them to move to their country. It's a meaningless comparison, or rather a comparison that ignores the meaning of the original complaint.

 

[EnglishEdward]

Well, I suppose the chancellor's budget could have been worse.

I got quite annoyed by all the so called leaks, much of which I
suspect was merely the press desperately making things up.

But it could have been better.

The mansion tax is at best a half hearted step. They really ought to have
introduced a new set of bands to the outdated 1991 council tax banding.

And I regard the messing about with ISAs to push people towards investing
in shares and derivatives as entirely pandering to the financial capitalists.

What I find most amusing is the OBR's projected increase in GDP from
1.0% to 1.5% pa, being attributed to productivity improvements from AI.

 

[Theov]

So, out of those 7, and i'm sure there's more, how many Crimes were committed by British people during the same time?

I don't know. Why does it matter?

Or what the actual percentage of Asylum Seekers/Refugees who commit those kind of crimes. Those would be a worthy studies.

It would.
What would you guess the results would be?

 

[uppi]

A point is if the population increases by 1% pa due to net immigration and the immigrant crime rate is
the same as the indigenous crime rate that would not result in an annual increase in crime of 1%, if
there are other changes going on that would have resulted in perhaps a 10% to 20% drop in crime rate.

The point is, that if town A gets a lot of immigrants and town B does not, yet the crime rate in town A reduces more than in town B, the crime rate of the immigrants is likely lower than the one of the established residents.

 

[EnglishEdward]

Four points:

(a) The immigrants in your town A may be less trusting of the police and so less likely to report it.

(b) If the immigrants in Town A are poorer, they may have less property to steal, so there may be less theft.

(c) A major reason for reporting crime e.g. burglaries is because the insurance companies
insist on a police crime report number. If the immigrants are poorer they are less likely
to have insurance, so they are less likely to be motivated to report the theft.

(d) How can we attribute internet fraud (a rising crime I understand) to towns A or B or wherever else.

The thing is there is no sign in the reports, that I have read that the academic statisticians have caught
up with such, entirely obvious to me, subtleties. So I take comparative crime reports with a pinch of salt.

 

[Theov]

Four points:

(a) The immigrants in your town A may be less trusting of the police and so less likely to report it.

(b) If the immigrants in Town A are poorer, they may have less property to steal, so there may be less theft.

(c) A major reason for reporting crime e.g. burglaries is because the insurance companies
insist on a police crime report number. If the immigrants are poorer they are less likely
to have insurance, so they are less likely to be motivated to report the theft.

(d) How can we attribute internet fraud (a rising crime I understand) to towns A or B or wherever else.

The thing is there is no sign in the reports, that I have read that the academic statisticians have caught
up with such, entirely obvious to me, subtleties. So I take comparative crime reports with a pinch of salt.

e: immigration =/= asylum seekers or illegal immigrants

 

[Senethro]

You should put in half as much effort to your hysterical claims european civilization is being destroyed.