2012 US General Election

[JohnRM]

We're just over a month away from the 2012 US General Election. What do you think?


General Questions/Discussion Points


Presidential Race

(1) Is it within the realm of possibility for the President to win North Carolina, again?

(2) Given current trends, should Mitt Romney worry about the possibility of losing Missouri? Montana? Nebraska District 2? Could the President win by an even larger electoral vote margin than in 2008?

(3) Is it possible for the President to the first candidate to win more than 60 percent of the popular vote since Richard Nixon (1972)?

(4) Is it within the realm of possibility for Mitt Romney to win Iowa or New Mexico, at this point?

(5) Given current polling and trends, should Mitt Romney abandon efforts in Ohio and concentrate on winning states such as Colorado, Nevada, Virginia, and Florida?



Senate Races

(1) Despite his infamous rape gaffe, Congressman Todd Akin is still polling reasonably well in Missouri. Can he still win this race and has/will the rape gaffe effect wear off?

(2) The race in Massachusetts is very tight. Will Elizabeth Warren hold onto her current lead?

(3) Do you feel as though there may be a sweeping trend of negative public opinion against Republicans, in general, that may take or save Senate seats for the Democratic Party in Arizona, Montana, and/or North Dakota?

(4) Will Joe Donnelly win the Senate seat in Indiana for the Democratic Party?


House Races

(1) Is it within the realm of possibility, at all, for the Democratic Party to take back control of the house?

(2) Will Democrats make gains?

(3) Will Republicans increase their lead?



State-specific

(1) Given the results of recent elections and current trends, should Pennsylvania even be considered a swing state?

(2) Give the results of recent elections, and current and future trends, should/could the following states be considered potential swing states in this and future elections?


(a) Montana (Traditionally Republican, margins of victory have been declining. Clinton took the state in 1992 and there has been a spate of Democratic office-holders, throughout past decades.)

(b) Virginia (Before 2008, no Republican had lost Virginia since Goldwater in 1964.)

(c) Nebraska District 2 (President Obama was the first Democrat to win an electoral vote from the state since Lyndon Johnson won the state in 1964.)

 

[JohnRM]

We're just over a month away from the 2012 US General Election. What do you think?


General Questions/Discussion Points


Presidential Race

(1) Is it within the realm of possibility for the President to win North Carolina, again?

Yes, and I think he will.

(2) Given current trends, should Mitt Romney worry about the possibility of losing Missouri? Montana? Nebraska District 2? Could the President win by an even larger electoral vote margin than in 2008?

No, for all three...well, if things get real rough, Nebraska may hand a vote to the President.

(3) Is it possible for the President to the first candidate to win more than 60 percent of the popular vote since Richard Nixon (1972)?

No. The President may approach 55 percent, but not surpass even that.

(4) Is it within the realm of possibility for Mitt Romney to win Iowa or New Mexico, at this point?

No, in both cases.

(5) Given current polling and trends, should Mitt Romney abandon efforts in Ohio and concentrate on winning states such as Colorado, Nevada, Virginia, and Florida?

Yes, I think he should. Ohio seems lost and the Republicans should not waste time on a state simply because Republicans haven't won without it, in the past. Things change and right now there are far more electoral votes at stake in states he can win.


Senate Races

(1) Despite his infamous rape gaffe, Congressman Todd Akin is still polling reasonably well in Missouri. Can he still win this race and has/will the rape gaffe effect wear off?

He can still win and I think the gaffe effect has worn off by about as much as it will. Some voters, especially women, were just lost period. McCaskill will still win, though.

(2) The race in Massachusetts is very tight. Will Elizabeth Warren hold onto her current lead?

*Shrugg* This is a nail-biter.

(3) Do you feel as though there may be a sweeping trend of negative public opinion against Republicans, in general, that may take or save Senate seats for the Democratic Party in Arizona, Montana, and/or North Dakota?

If, only slightly. I don't think it will make too much of a difference in many Senate and House races. Romney is just a horrible candidate. Democrats have a shot at winning North Dakota and Montana, but I think Arizona is not going to turn, yet.

(4) Will Joe Donnelly win the Senate seat in Indiana for the Democratic Party?

Another nail-biter. I don't think so. The Democrats can't win both Massachusetts and Indiana. They have to lose one of them!

House Races

(1) Is it within the realm of possibility, at all, for the Democratic Party to take back control of the house?

Not a chance.

(2) Will Democrats make gains?

Small gains.

(3) Will Republicans increase their lead?

Probably not.



State-specific

(1) Given the results of recent elections and current trends, should Pennsylvania even be considered a swing state?

I don't think so. Pennsylvania hasn't gone for a Republican since Bush I. Kerry couldn't even manage to lose the state, back in '04.

(2) Give the results of recent elections, and current and future trends, should/could the following states be considered potential swing states in this and future elections?


(a) Montana (Traditionally Republican, margins of victory have been declining. Clinton took the state in 1992 and there has been a spate of Democratic office-holders, throughout past decades.)

Not this time around, but by 2020, I think so.

(b) Virginia (Before 2008, no Republican had lost Virginia since Goldwater in 1964.)

It is, of course, right now, and I think it will continue to be.

(c) Nebraska District 2 (President Obama was the first Democrat to win an electoral vote from the state since Lyndon Johnson won the state in 1964.)

I'm really not sure. I think that, generally speaking, Republicans are going to win this single vote most of the time.

 

[downtown]

(1) Is it within the realm of possibility for the President to win North Carolina, again?

Sure, that race has been tightening up, and now polling is around the margin of error. I don't think the President should be the favorite in NC right now, but it is probably the only state he can win that he isn't currently winning.

(2) Given current trends, should Mitt Romney worry about the possibility of losing Missouri? Montana? Nebraska District 2? Could the President win by an even larger electoral vote margin than in 2008?

Maaaaybe Nebraska 2, but not the other states. Missouri isn't a swing state anymore...their demographics have become substantially more Republican friendly since 1996, perhaps more than any other traditional swing state. Obama is going to under perform with white working class voters relative to how he did in 2008, so he doesn't really have a chance in MO or MT.

The one state that may be a lot closer than we think is Arizona. Obama may decide to spend a little money there and make a run at it, since polls show that within a few points right now. Hispanic voters man.

(3) Is it possible for the President to the first candidate to win more than 60 percent of the popular vote since Richard Nixon (1972)?

No. I dont think he cracks 54.

(4) Is it within the realm of possibility for Mitt Romney to win Iowa or New Mexico, at this point?

Iowa, yes. New Mexico, no. Obama is underperforming in Iowa relative to last year, but the Republicans do not have a chance in any state outside of FL where they would need to attract non white votes to win.

(5) Given current polling and trends, should Mitt Romney abandon efforts in Ohio and concentrate on winning states such as Colorado, Nevada, Virginia, and Florida?

I dont think he should abandon Ohio, but he ought to be putting more money into Nevada, that's for sure. He can win Nevada.

(1) Despite his infamous rape gaffe, Congressman Todd Akin is still polling reasonably well in Missouri. Can he still win this race and has/will the rape gaffe effect wear off?

He sure can, since MO has become substantially more conservative in the last decade. He isn't the favorite, but MO voters really aren't crazy about McCaskil. Dumb people get elected all the time (see: House, 2010)

(2) The race in Massachusetts is very tight. Will Elizabeth Warren hold onto her current lead?

Baring any gaffes from her, I think so. MA voters want Democrats to control the Senate, and I think dem voters who like Brown understand that sending him back jeopardizes that goal. Brown can't win without pulling in a lot of dem voters.

(3) Do you feel as though there may be a sweeping trend of negative public opinion against Republicans, in general, that may take or save Senate seats for the Democratic Party in Arizona, Montana, and/or North Dakota?

They have a good shot of winning one of those three states, thanks to excellent candidate recruitment. Their candidate in ND has a statewide future again in that state.

(4) Will Joe Donnelly win the Senate seat in Indiana for the Democratic Party?

I hope so. I used to work for Joe and think very highly of him. He's an excellent retail politician and might have enough juice to win this,

 

[GhostWriter16]

(1) Is it within the realm of possibility for the President to win North Carolina, again?

That's what they're saying, anyway. I think Mittens wins there. And I DON'T think he's going to win the election BTW.

(2) Given current trends, should Mitt Romney worry about the possibility of losing Missouri? Montana? Nebraska District 2? Could the President win by an even larger electoral vote margin than in 2008?

Anything Mccain won in 2008 Romney should get. However much he sucks, Obama doesn't have the
"Not Bush" thing going for him this time.

(3) Is it possible for the President to the first candidate to win more than 60 percent of the popular vote since Richard Nixon (1972)?

If Reagan didn't, Obama can't

(4) Is it within the realm of possibility for Mitt Romney to win Iowa or New Mexico, at this point?

No. I think New Mexico might actually give 5 or so percent to Gary Johnson, and those will probably be mainly NM supporters. I know Iowa is also a more libertarian leaning state, and if the vibe I'm getting from the net is accurate, Mitt is NOT popular with libertarians these days.

(5) Given current polling and trends, should Mitt Romney abandon efforts in Ohio and concentrate on winning states such as Colorado, Nevada, Virginia, and Florida?

If Ohio isn't winnable, the tradition that GOP has to win Ohio to win should not be considered.


Senate Races

(1) Despite his infamous rape gaffe, Congressman Todd Akin is still polling reasonably well in Missouri. Can he still win this race and has/will the rape gaffe effect wear off?

Can he? Sure. A lot of people are upset by that statement but I don't think most people that would vote for him, and don't like the other candidate, will vote for a candidate they don't like just because of that statement.

(2) The race in Massachusetts is very tight. Will Elizabeth Warren hold onto her current lead?

I have absolutely no knowledge of this one, so no comment.

(3) Do you feel as though there may be a sweeping trend of negative public opinion against Republicans, in general, that may take or save Senate seats for the Democratic Party in Arizona, Montana, and/or North Dakota?

I don't think its so much Republicans that are hated as it is Mitt Romney. So no.

(4) Will Joe Donnelly win the Senate seat in Indiana for the Democratic Party?

Since its Indiana I have to marginally guess not (Red state) but there's no specific details I know that would verify or disprove that opinion.

House Races

(1) Is it within the realm of possibility, at all, for the Democratic Party to take back control of the house?

Nope.

(2) Will Democrats make gains?

I still think people dislike Mitt Romney more so than "The Republicans" so the GOP should be fine in the House.

(3) Will Republicans increase their lead?

Maybe. Probably.


State-specific

(1) Given the results of recent elections and current trends, should Pennsylvania even be considered a swing state?

Its not seeming like it anyway. I think if the Democrats had the candidate that sucks right now (Like the Dems had their "Romney" and the GOP had a solid candidate) than it might flip, but right now it doesn't seem particularly flippable. I don't really think the GOP could ever win Pennsylvania without winning the election, and by quite a bit at that. That said, its no New York. It still COULD go Republican.

(2) Give the results of recent elections, and current and future trends, should/could the following states be considered potential swing states in this and future elections?


(a) Montana (Traditionally Republican, margins of victory have been declining. Clinton took the state in 1992 and there has been a spate of Democratic office-holders, throughout past decades.)

(b) Virginia (Before 2008, no Republican had lost Virginia since Goldwater in 1964.)

(c) Nebraska District 2 (President Obama was the first Democrat to win an electoral vote from the state since Lyndon Johnson won the state in 1964.)

I don't really know, I guess we'll find out. Probably in Virginia's case, but I'd be more surprised in Montana's case. I guess we'll see.

 

[JollyRoger]

(1) Is it within the realm of possibility for the President to win North Carolina, again?

Yes, but I think Romney takes it

(2) Given current trends, should Mitt Romney worry about the possibility of losing Missouri? Montana? Nebraska District 2? Could the President win by an even larger electoral vote margin than in 2008?

Romney should not be worried as I think he takes all of those

(3) Is it possible for the President to the first candidate to win more than 60 percent of the popular vote since Richard Nixon (1972)?

No

(4) Is it within the realm of possibility for Mitt Romney to win Iowa or New Mexico, at this point?

Maybe Iowa, but I seriously doubt he will

(5) Given current polling and trends, should Mitt Romney abandon efforts in Ohio and concentrate on winning states such as Colorado, Nevada, Virginia, and Florida?

Nope, he need Ohio as I do not think he can run the table on the states he needs if he doesn't win Ohio

(1) Despite his infamous rape gaffe, Congressman Todd Akin is still polling reasonably well in Missouri. Can he still win this race and has/will the rape gaffe effect wear off?

He wil end up winning the race

(2) The race in Massachusetts is very tight. Will Elizabeth Warren hold onto her current lead?

I think she eeks out a win

(

3) Do you feel as though there may be a sweeping trend of negative public opinion against Republicans, in general, that may take or save Senate seats for the Democratic Party in Arizona, Montana, and/or North Dakota?

Maybe Montana, I am doubtful on the others

(4) Will Joe Donnelly win the Senate seat in Indiana for the Democratic Party?

I give him a puncher's chance, but I think he comes up short

(1) Is it within the realm of possibility, at all, for the Democratic Party to take back control of the house?

It's possible, given the all the purple seats taken by the GOP, but I think is is a bit too tall of an order

(2) Will Democrats make gains?

Absolutely

(3) Will Republicans increase their lead?

No chance at all

(1) Given the results of recent elections and current trends, should Pennsylvania even be considered a swing state?

In some ways, but not for this election

(a) Montana (Traditionally Republican, margins of victory have been declining. Clinton took the state in 1992 and there has been a spate of Democratic office-holders, throughout past decades.)

No

(b) Virginia (Before 2008, no Republican had lost Virginia since Goldwater in 1964.)

Yes

(c) Nebraska District 2 (President Obama was the first Democrat to win an electoral vote from the state since Lyndon Johnson won the state in 1964.)

Yes

 

[JollyRoger]

I know Iowa is also a more libertarian leaning state,

Are you kidding me? They are first in the nation to stay on the farm subsidies,

 

[hobbsyoyo]

We're just over a month away from the 2012 US General Election. What do you think?

I think Romney's going to come across as overly aggressive in one of the debates and is going to get stomped in them in any case. I expect the gaffe factory to continue nonstop until the election, at which point Obama will win. I hope the Republicans will take the lesson and cut back on some of the extreme social conservative crap.

(1) Is it within the realm of possibility for the President to win North Carolina, again?

Yes, I think he can win it again. Not sure that he will, but I definitely wouldn't rule it out.

(2) Given current trends, should Mitt Romney worry about the possibility of losing Missouri? Montana? Nebraska District 2? Could the President win by an even larger electoral vote margin than in 2008?

I'm not sure Romney will lose those states, but he isn't helping himself lately either. I don't expect Obama will get more EV's than last time, but it is a possibility if the Romney meltdown continues.

(3) Is it possible for the President to the first candidate to win more than 60 percent of the popular vote since Richard Nixon (1972)?

No. The country is so polarized that 40+% will never vote across party lines no matter who the candidates are. I do expect him to get around 53-54% of the popular vote though.

(4) Is it within the realm of possibility for Mitt Romney to win Iowa or New Mexico, at this point?

Not really. He's going to have to put maximum effort into keeping the Red states Red from here on out. It's going to take a miracle for him to expand his base at this point.

(5) Given current polling and trends, should Mitt Romney abandon efforts in Ohio and concentrate on winning states such as Colorado, Nevada, Virginia, and Florida?

Yes.
Senate Races

(1) Despite his infamous rape gaffe, Congressman Todd Akin is still polling reasonably well in Missouri. Can he still win this race and has/will the rape gaffe effect wear off?

The rape gaffe hasn't worn off here yet. I don't think he is going to win the election TBH.

(2) The race in Massachusetts is very tight. Will Elizabeth Warren hold onto her current lead?

I think so. Brown's attack on her ethnicity was just plain stupid and counterproductive. It also seems that people are beginning to believe Obama has the US on the right track economically, and this helps Warren immensely. I would like to say I wouldn't be entirely unhappy with Brown winning. He's moderate enough that I think he's an ok, if not a stellar Republican.

(3) Do you feel as though there may be a sweeping trend of negative public opinion against Republicans, in general, that may take or save Senate seats for the Democratic Party in Arizona, Montana, and/or North Dakota?

Possibly. Hard to say. Although I think the negative public opinion is there for the country at large, not so much in deeply conservative states to make an impact.

(4) Will Joe Donnelly win the Senate seat in Indiana for the Democratic Party?

No idea.

House Races

(1) Is it within the realm of possibility, at all, for the Democratic Party to take back control of the house?

Yes. Probably won't happen though.

(2) Will Democrats make gains?

Yes.

(3) Will Republicans increase their lead?

No.

State-specific

(1) Given the results of recent elections and current trends, should Pennsylvania even be considered a swing state?

Not at all.

(a) Montana (Traditionally Republican, margins of victory have been declining. Clinton took the state in 1992 and there has been a spate of Democratic office-holders, throughout past decades.)

Nope it'll stay Republican.

(b) Virginia (Before 2008, no Republican had lost Virginia since Goldwater in 1964.)

Yes, it's a swing state now and trending blue.

(c) Nebraska District 2 (President Obama was the first Democrat to win an electoral vote from the state since Lyndon Johnson won the state in 1964.)

I don't know honestly.

 

[mangxema]

If Ohio isn't winnable, the tradition that GOP has to win Ohio to win should not be considered.

About that... here's a data point you'll find interesting. Basically, the inclusion of Gary Johnson in this particular poll makes Ohio significantly less competitive and gives Obama a pretty solid edge (7%).

What does this mean? Possibly nothing. However, I seem to recall there being a thread about what a 3rd party would need to do to make headway, and I recall posting (although I can't find it at the moment... maybe I just thought about it) that their best shot would be for the candidate that would normally benefit from favorable conditions is strongly unpalatable for some reason. Well, we kind of have that. Romney's campaign has been floundering recently, and around that time Johnson's support has gone up in Ohio.

I still think people dislike Mitt Romney more so than "The Republicans" so the GOP should be fine in the House.

I wouldn't be so sure. If there's one group I dislike more than anything else, it's Congressional Republicans. Still, I think the House is safe because of redistricting.

 

[Goodfella]

Presidential Race

(1) Is it within the realm of possibility for the President to win North Carolina, again?

Yes and he probably will.


(2) Given current trends, should Mitt Romney worry about the possibility of losing Missouri? Montana? Nebraska District 2? Could the President win by an even larger electoral vote margin than in 2008?

Romney will win all of those except District 2. Obama will not win by as wide of a margin as he did in 2008.

(3) Is it possible for the President to the first candidate to win more than 60 percent of the popular vote since Richard Nixon (1972)?

No. He'll win by a little more than 50%.


(4) Is it within the realm of possibility for Mitt Romney to win Iowa or New Mexico, at this point?

No, he'll lose both.

(5) Given current polling and trends, should Mitt Romney abandon efforts in Ohio and concentrate on winning states such as Colorado, Nevada, Virginia, and Florida?


He'll lose Ohio so he should focus on Florida and Virginia. Colorado and Nevada are going blue.

Senate Races

(1) Despite his infamous rape gaffe, Congressman Todd Akin is still polling reasonably well in Missouri. Can he still win this race and has/will the rape gaffe effect wear off?


Yes he can win but I'm not definite.

(2) The race in Massachusetts is very tight. Will Elizabeth Warren hold onto her current lead?


Yes she will.

(3) Do you feel as though there may be a sweeping trend of negative public opinion against Republicans, in general, that may take or save Senate seats for the Democratic Party in Arizona, Montana, and/or North Dakota?


The negative opinion will save senate seats but the Republicans will still win some and possibly get a majority.

(4) Will Joe Donnelly win the Senate seat in Indiana for the Democratic Party?

I don't know.

House Races

(1) Is it within the realm of possibility, at all, for the Democratic Party to take back control of the house?


No, that definitely won't happen.

(2) Will Democrats make gains?

Probably not.

(3) Will Republicans increase their lead?


Probably will.


State-specific

(1) Given the results of recent elections and current trends, should Pennsylvania even be considered a swing state?


No, Pennsylvania is going blue.

(2) Give the results of recent elections, and current and future trends, should/could the following states be considered potential swing states in this and future elections?


Montana will continue to be Republican but Virginia and District 2 will become swing states/districts.

 

[ace99]

Nate Silver forecasts an 83.8% probability of an Obama win on Nov 6th. 319-218. If the vote was held today he forecasts a 98% probability of an Obama win. 339-198.

I've never known 538 to be wrong aside from the Liberal Democrat results in the British election, but everyone was wrong about that.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

 

[JohnRM]

Some interesting comments. Keep 'em comin'.

 

[downtown]

I forgot to do the House races

House Races

(1) Is it within the realm of possibility, at all, for the Democratic Party to take back control of the house?

I think there is a lack of good polling about this, given the hundreds of races, but I do not think this is likely. Obama isn't strong enough to provide massive coattails like he did in 2008.

(2) Will Democrats make gains?

Unquestionably. This almost always happens after a wave election, since waves (like 2010) put overly ideological candidates in districts that can't support them longterm. I bet the Democrats pick up a dozen or so seats, but not enough to take back the house.

(3) Will Republicans increase their lead?

lol no way.

State-specific

(1) Given the results of recent elections and current trends, should Pennsylvania even be considered a swing state?

It's very much a swing state for statewide elections, but I don't think, it is in the presidential race. McCain sure spent a lot of money there trying though.

(2) Give the results of recent elections, and current and future trends, should/could the following states be considered potential swing states in this and future elections?

Virgina already is, that isn't going away. Virgina's demographics have made it a LOT younger, more yuppy-ish and more latino, (along with NC), making it ripe for Democratic picking. Montana has a very strong state level Dem party, but I don't think their demographics make it a likely swing..Romney should win by more than 5% this time around.

If you're looking for the next "swing' state, look at Arizona. Arizona will vote for a Democrat before Montana will.