2020 US Election (Part One)

[Lexicus]

Impeachment might happen but removal from office? Never in a thousand years.

If Pelosi is indeed biding her time to impeach - that may be a sound strategy, as I said. I wouldn't necessarily be opposed to it. And for the record, I don't believe Pelosi is "spineless" at all. Her problem is that she's a willing and often enthusiastic servant of capital, not that she's spineless.

 

[Berzerker]

Fact: Trump has already obviously committed impeachable offenses with no measurable dip in support from Republicans let alone any materialization of support for impeachment. Fact: the week after the Mueller report was released Trump's approval rating reached the highest point of his entire Presidency. His approval hit 91% among Republicans.

What I've noticed over the two and a half years of Trump's presidency is that whatever actually happens is worse than what I thought was going to happen, and much much worse than what liberals drawing analogies with Nixon thought was going to happen. I've tried to adjust my expectations accordingly.

We've been listening to 'Trump is a Russian puppet' for over 2 years and when it turns out to be overblown you think its actually worse? Your expectations reflected that hysteria, a little skepticism would have kept them in the ballpark.

 

[Birdjaguar]

Trumpers I know think that two things will drive a Trump win in 2020: a strong economy and a massive, budget-busting infrastructure bill liked by everyone except the Congressional fringes.

I think the only way to offset that will be public hearing in Congress and indictments from states like NY. Barr has made it clear that the Feds will not pursue any cases that might make Trump look bad. He doesn't care if Trump has broken any laws.

 

[Kyriakos]

So in the end this was another bubble? No "it's Mueller time!"?
Can't you just wait till 2020 to have an election like most of the other countries with elections do? ^_^

 

[metalhead]

Impeachment might happen but removal from office? Never in a thousand years.

If Pelosi is indeed biding her time to impeach - that may be a sound strategy, as I said. I wouldn't necessarily be opposed to it. And for the record, I don't believe Pelosi is "spineless" at all. Her problem is that she's a willing and often enthusiastic servant of capital, not that she's spineless.

I never claimed he would be removed from office, and agree that is 100% not going to happen no matter what evidence they uncover. But that doesn't mean that there isn't significant benefit to parading whatever additional crimes Mueller was talking about in front of the American people.

I don't know what Pelosi is up to. I want to believe she is slow-walking impeachment to try to make it seem like she was dragged there by overwhelming evidence, but who knows. She used the words "constitutional crisis" yesterday, so I don't know how much further there is to go.

 

[onejayhawk]

Fact: Trump has already obviously committed impeachable offenses with no measurable dip in support from Republicans let alone any materialization of support for impeachment.
Fact: the week after the Mueller report was released Trump's approval rating reached the highest point of his entire Presidency. His approval hit 91% among Republicans.

What I've noticed over the two and a half years of Trump's presidency is that whatever actually happens is worse than what I thought was going to happen, and much much worse than what liberals drawing analogies with Nixon thought was going to happen. I've tried to adjust my expectations accordingly.

Fact, you are stating opinions as fact.

He's been a very good President from a conservative perspective so it makes sense the Republicans support him. Compare GHW Bush and, "Read my lips." Trump has delivered on a long list of campaign promises. Where he hasn't it was because McCain stabbed him in the back or Democrats are doing 180 reversals of their own positions. Plus they think Democrats are sore losers.

I mean if Pelosi says we're having a constitutional crisis and other congresspeople agree, it is a significant abdication of duty to not impeach, and if the Dems don't, just an incredibly spineless precedent setting move. Trump's approval rating is still in the lowish 40s. The big thing is turning out the Dem base to vote for him. It's bigger, there are more Dem voters, and as long as Dems can turn out some more black voters in Detroit/Flint/Milwaukee/Akron/Cleveland, or some suburban women in Auburn Hills and Ferndale or whatever, what his base thinks doesn't matter much.

Again, if we say impeachment is maybe not the most electorally successful strategy at this point in time, then the only consistent move with that is to fully support Biden, who is lapping the field right now.

The RCP average is 45.1, a two year high, and trending up since the Mueller report. The continued talk of investigations and impeachment procedings is not working so far and Trump hasn't even counter attacked yet.

J

 

[Birdjaguar]

Fact, you are stating opinions as fact.
J

C'mon J, you do that all the time.

Now one of his "facts" was: Fact: Trump has already obviously committed impeachable offenses with no measurable dip in support from Republicans let alone any materialization of support for impeachment.

We do know that obstruction of justice is impeachable and we do know that based on the evidence presented, 500+ federal prosecutors agree that Trump obstructed justice. So are you calling the second half of his fact as not true?

 

[Berzerker]

I'd expect Trump's poll numbers to increase after the fallout from the Mueller report, I'm sure the GOP kept expecting more shoes to drop just like everyone else and when all they came up with was obstruction people are left wondering what the fuss was about. If they cant prosecute anyone for the alleged crime then charging people for lying about the alleged crime is a problem.

Course if everyone is lying and thats the reason they cant charge anyone thats another problem.

 

[Zkribbler]

If it's too early to base Biden/vs the field on polls, then it's too early to use polls on impeachment as a guide too.

No it's not.

Unless there's a wholesale abandonment of Trump by GOP Senators, there's no way to get 2/3 of the Senate to vote to convict. Impeachment of Trump is a useless act.

 

[GoodEnoughForMe]

That's not at all the point. We might as well stop talking about anything GND/Medicare for All/etc. too until we know for sure we have the senate and no fillibuster.

Nobody is going into this expecting Republicans to remove him. It's simply a congressional duty at this point, and one that hopefully inspires the Dem base.

 

[onejayhawk]

C'mon J, you do that all the time.

Now one of his "facts" was: Fact: Trump has already obviously committed impeachable offenses with no measurable dip in support from Republicans let alone any materialization of support for impeachment.

We do know that obstruction of justice is impeachable and we do know that based on the evidence presented, 500+ federal prosecutors agree that Trump obstructed justice. So are you calling the second half of his fact as not true?

The bolded was the opinion. Specifically everything before the conjunction is not only opinion but minority opinion. It will play well in a left leaning echo chamber like this one but not in the US population at large. The proof is the part after the conjunction. The other significant opinion is that this is all a massive smear campaign orginating in the anti-Trump swamp. When Mueller declined to recommend charges, it likely became the majority opinion.

Also, it does not impress that you can get 400 lawyers to say that. Look at metalhead as an example. Regardless of the facts, he's anti-Trump first, second and final. If he were a Judge and this were a case, he would have to recuse himself. Mueller's team was made of of lawyers like metalhead, yet they couldn't find anything in two years of intense searching and rubber hose tactics. Do you stilling think there's a case to be made?

J

 

[Lexicus]

We might as well stop talking about anything GND/Medicare for All/etc. too until we know for sure we have the senate and no fillibuster.

I think that it helps the Democrats politically to force the Republicans to vote against these things. I am just not convinced the same is true of forcing the Republicans to vote not to convict Trump

 

[metalhead]

I think that it helps the Democrats politically to force the Republicans to vote against these things. I am just not convinced the same is true of forcing the Republicans to vote not to convict Trump

The further removed we get from bad news that highlights Trump's foibles, the better he looks. You can either focus the country's attention on stuff that makes Trump unpopular, or allow Trump to focus the country on stuff that makes him popular.

Democrats don't have many tools at their disposal to wrestle narrative control away from Trump. Impeachment is really the only way to do it over a long period of time.

 

[Kyriakos]

The further removed we get from bad news that highlights Trump's foibles, the better he looks. You can either focus the country's attention on stuff that makes Trump unpopular, or allow Trump to focus the country on stuff that makes him popular.

Democrats don't have many tools at their disposal to wrestle narrative control away from Trump. Impeachment is really the only way to do it over a long period of time.

At this point it is like trying to extinguish fire by more fire. Obama was very unpopular with republicans as well, and he stayed for 8 years. Surely expecting to oust Trump isn't realistic without an election, and it would make sense to focus on having a good candidate in 2016 to win.

 

[Birdjaguar]

The bolded was the opinion. Specifically everything before the conjunction is not only opinion but minority opinion. It will play well in a left leaning echo chamber like this one but not in the US population at large. The proof is the part after the conjunction. The other significant opinion is that this is all a massive smear campaign orginating in the anti-Trump swamp. When Mueller declined to recommend charges, it likely became the majority opinion.

J

"Obstruction" may be a legal opinion, but it is guided by strict legal standards. My opinion or your opinion is more like "public opinion" and less rigorous. @JollyRoger s opinion is apt to be closer to a legal opinion than ours. Barr's opinion may be his legal opinion, but it is one attorney's opinion. 500+ legal opinions from former federal prosecutors is certainly not a minority opinion. They may be powerless to change Barr's mind, but their numbers do not appear to be in the minority. the evidence presented in the Mueller report allows individuals with legal education to weigh the evidence and come to a conclusion. They seem to have done that. What makes you think that all those prosecutors

 

[Takhisis]

OK, Birdjaguar was murdered by FSB agents before he could finish writing that post.

 

[Estebonrober]

That number is up to 800+ and is bloody damning to any rational actor but considering current company. . .

https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2019/may/10/the-800-former-federal-prosecutors-who-signed-a-le/

 

[brennan]

When Mueller declined to recommend charges,

J

Mueller: "it is not my job to make decisions about prosecuting the President"

Barr: "Mueller didn't say to press charges. The President is exonerated."

Trump fans: "Wow, such flawless logic."

 

[JollyRoger]

The Mueller report clearly outlines multiple instances of obstruction of justice and clearly puts it to Congress to provide the remedy. If Trump was anyone but the President, criminal prosecution would likely have been recommended.

 

[Berzerker]

But they were lying about a non-crime, what justice was obstructed? Maybe that needs to be illegal, but impeachable? There was a real crime(s) and people died because of Reagan and his cronies in Iran-Contra. And then the next 4 presidents gave us multiple wars and walked away from their crimes. All that makes Trump's misbehavior pale in comparison.

I saw polls showing Biden's strength is with older Democrats and Bernie does better with younger folk, its gonna be Biden unless he has to withdraw or does really bad in the debates. I think he has the best chance of beating Trump and he's the Democrat I dislike the most. Quite a dilemma.