2020 US Election (Part One)

[Lexicus]

How can Americans be on another election trail already!???? You've only just finished the last one!?
At what point do American politicians actually do any work that isn't looking at the next election??

I know you're not American but you set me up with a lollipop right over home plate

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Here's the map.



Rs are pretty safe everywhere they are defending in 2020. AZ and ME are the only good chances for the Dems to flip seats, imo. Meanwhile the Rs are certain to take back AL, unless they nominate another pedophile in their primary, and they will be drawing live in VA, MI, and NH.

C'mon man.

Iowa and NC are ripe targets. Colorado and Arizona flipped their other seats this week, so what makes you think they are bulletproof in two years? Georgia's governor's race was administrated by the GOP's candidate and he still barely pulled off the win. There are targets all over that map.

 

[Lexicus]

C'mon man.

Iowa and NC are ripe targets. Colorado and Arizona flipped their other seats this week, so what makes you think they are bulletproof in two years? Georgia's governor's race was administrated by the GOP's candidate and he still barely pulled off the win. There are targets all over that map.

I was also thinking about Iowa as a potential target for flipping in 2020.

 

[Birdjaguar]

I hope so. Apparently Bernie will also run again; I'd really rather he didn't either.

Too old?

Yeah, they are too old: Hillary, Bernie, Trump, Biden. I like Warren enough to give her an age pass though. My preference would be someone under 60. I do like Beto, but think he needs a few years in the Senate first. If he did run, he might turn Texas bright blue! That's a bunch of EVs.

 

[metalhead]

I think Warren would be a disaster as a presidential candidate.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

I think Warren would be a disaster as a presidential candidate.

I agree.

"We've finally got the GOP on the ropes, let's pull a hard left and let them up!"

While that seems obviously stupid, the Democratic party has no real record of not being stupid.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Just saw some very clever people suggesting that with no chance to accomplish anything for the next two years due to the House, Trump could spend the time running The Apprentice:VP Version, ultimately selecting Nikki Haley to replace Pence and give the ticket "woman cred."

 

[GoodEnoughForMe]

I don't think Warren would be disastrous, and for a time I thought she might have the best odds (she was polling 2nd to Bernie as largest approval vs. disapproval ratio back in 2016 and 2017), but she was stupid regarding the Native American controversy and should have never even acknowledged Trump's racist critique, much less dug herself a deeper hole with it. Her constant hammering of Wall Street and banks also are big helps but it's becoming apparent that a national campaign might just not be her best arena.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

I don't think Warren would be disastrous, and for a time I thought she might have the best odds (she was polling 2nd to Bernie as largest approval vs. disapproval ratio back in 2016 and 2017), but she was stupid regarding the Native American controversy and should have never even acknowledged Trump's racist critique, much less dug herself a deeper hole with it. Her constant hammering of Wall Street and banks also are big helps but it's becoming apparent that a national campaign might just not be her best arena.

Constant hammering of Wall Street and banks excites her base, just like Trump chanting about the wall excites his base. But it won't work. There's a whole lot to winning an election besides how excited you can make a small base.

 

[GoodEnoughForMe]

"Hammering wall street and banks excites Trump's base and Warren's base" is about 90% of the country considering people all fall in line with their nominee anyways. But uh, the last several years have shown us there is still a massive appetite for class based critiques and as I've said before, literally running on "screw wall street/banks/silicon valley" is unanimously popular among American voters right now almost. There's a reason Bernie and Warren have extremely high approval ratings and have for years, and there's a reason people keep trying to angle themseles as outsiders when running for office (even when not). Like, everyone right now hates the rich. If you're a politician you have to figure out how to hide that you are, or at least prioritize God or something in a way that overrules it.

Trump has shown us precisely that hammering a perceived enemy is a great electoral strategy! 2018 midterms weren't huge because people disagreed with Trump's stance on tax rates for pass-through corporations, but because they hate him and want him gone.

This is the EXACT trap Dems fall in. Hammer away! Stop caring about wonkishness until you have to write the bill! Be angry! Republicans have been using it to beat Dems when Dems have a much bigger base (among other things like voting disenfranchisement).

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Hammering Wall Street isn't going to get Trumpists to vote for Warren. It isn't going to get GOP never Trumpers to vote for Warren. It isn't going to get the vast majority of Democrats to vote for Warren. Trump can be successful running on "be scared and angry about the other," but no one is going to win running on "be scared and angry about the economy that you participate in yourself." Most people are only going to be scared and angry about the candidate.

The "Bernie third" of the Democratic party might have been disgusted and stayed home, but a significant chunk of the Clinton majority in the Democratic party would have been scared enough of Bernie to turn out against him. "I want to destroy the economy so I can make it better, and I'm smart enough to do it, trust me," just doesn't work.

 

[GoodEnoughForMe]

You don't need GOP never Trumpers to vote for the Dem (they'll mostly vote for Trump anyways), you need Dems to vote Dem. Hillary didn't do that. Black voters stayed home, young adults stayed home. There's no silver bullet but you have to motivate the base as a Dem, and blaming rich people the average American has no interaction with is perfectly valid an election strategy. It was employed extremely successfully by some dude named Obama in 2012 against Romney, and again by some dude named Trump in 2016 against Hillary.

 

[Lexicus]

Hammering Wall Street isn't going to get Trumpists to vote for Warren. It isn't going to get GOP never Trumpers to vote for Warren. It isn't going to get the vast majority of Democrats to vote for Warren. Trump can be successful running on "be scared and angry about the other," but no one is going to win running on "be scared and angry about the economy that you participate in yourself." Most people are only going to be scared and angry about the candidate.

The "Bernie third" of the Democratic party might have been disgusted and stayed home, but a significant chunk of the Clinton majority in the Democratic party would have been scared enough of Bernie to turn out against him. "I want to destroy the economy so I can make it better, and I'm smart enough to do it, trust me," just doesn't work.

See, this is just so misguided on so many levels.

First and most glaring, Trump won on a message pretty similar to the one you mockingly present at the end of this post.
Secondly, there is no one (literally, no one) who actually thinks that restoring the rule of law to Wall Street and marginally increasing the tax rates on investment income will "destroy the economy."
Thirdly, there is some evidence that Trumpists will vote for a Democrat who hammers Wall Street. Some Trumpists probably voted for Bernie and some of them definitely voted for Obama. It may be that nothing will get them to vote for Warren because Warren is a woman and they just won't vote for a woman.
Fourthly...I just want to touch on the "economy you participate in yourself" bit...people don't need to be told to be scared and angry about that. People who work three and four jobs and still can't quite make rent don't need to be told to be scared and angry about that. People who drowning in student loan debt don't need to be told to be scared and angry about that. People who are posting Gofundmes for medical treatment don't need to be told to be scared and angry about that.

Despite superficially good economic news the consequences of all that inequality that's been building up for decades hasn't gone away. Millions of people are struggling to make ends meet and the fact that Trump and the Republicans knew they couldn't campaign on the supposedly strong economy is evidence of that. No Democrat who fails to attack Wall Street and the rich is going to win, and no Democrat who fails to attack Wall Street and the rich deserves to win anyway.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

You don't need GOP never Trumpers to vote for the Dem (they'll mostly vote for Trump anyways), you need Dems to vote Dem. Hillary didn't do that. Black voters stayed home, young adults stayed home. There's no silver bullet but you have to motivate the base as a Dem, and blaming rich people the average American has no interaction with is perfectly valid an election strategy. It was employed extremely successfully by some dude named Obama in 2012 against Romney, and again by some dude named Trump in 2016 against Hillary.

Hammering Wall Street is now the synonym for blaming rich people?

By the way, we are again in agreement. Dems need Dems to vote Dem. As I said, Hillary lost because the "Bernie third" stayed home in large numbers. Bernie would have lost because the other two thirds would not only have stayed home in large numbers, but large numbers would have turned out and gone back to their GOP roots.

Let's burn the country to the ground and start over excites the Bernie third, but no one else is going for it.

 

[Lexicus]

As I said, Hillary lost because the "Bernie third" stayed home in large numbers.

Actual Fake News.

 

[metatron]

Ok... the list... hit me...
I mean really: hit me... or give me morphine or something...

I'd much prefer either Elizabeth Warren or Kamala Harris.

Ok, if Angela Merkel were to be reelected in 2021 and then reelected in 2025 she'd be as old as Warren in the latter's first year in office.
After having been the Chancelorette of the Federal Republic for twenty copulating years and being in her 6th term.

Too old?

You think? Really? What makes you say that?

or Kamala Harris.

Ok... this is my best guess as to explain Senator Harris' potential as a contender:

So there is this evil genious scientist dude. With a time machine. And he's like:
"I like this Clinton lady. I like the hideous privilege and arrogance. I like the reflexive self-righteousness and dismissal of responsibility, i like the fascistoid feminism and hypocritical phony identity politics. But the voice... it's a voice barely in the top 0.1 percentile of most annoying voices i have heard in my life. I think we can do better than this.
Heck i'll just go back in time, clone this whole mess but make the voice more annoying and offputting, because i'm a mad scientist and i can do these things."

Senator Harris also has an excellently maintained wikipedia page.

I hope so. Apparently Bernie will also run again;

Jebus...

I think Booker, Harris, Warren, Klobuchar, Bernie, Biden, Bloomberg, and Hillary are all among the most likely to run.

Crossed out the ones we already talked about.
That leaves us with:

Spoiler :

Booker 2020

Spoiler :

Okay, wow, didn't prepare for that one...

Spoiler :

You do understand that i thought to myself... "Wow that guy is hecka creepy. Huh, shrug." ... in like 2011?

Spoiler :

Mr. Bloomberg's apparent aptitude for political strategy and his support for the Iraq War aside, are you sure you want a guy who got his own term limit waved to run against Trump?
Isn't that just asking for trouble?





Alas if i and that Canadian dude going on about responsibility and a certain playwright would not have a solid idea about this:

"It's from Penzance or Iolanthe... one of the ones about duty."
"They're all about duty."

I'm not familiar with the map for the upcoming cycle.

Not that great. There are Colorado and North Carolina as rather feasable pickups (You'll probably lose the seat in Alabama). After that it's battle with Ernst and Collins.
And after that it's pretty much horrible.
I mean you can pick whatever deep red state and just try, i suppose.

Colorado and Arizona flipped their other seats this week,

1. Colorado didn't. Colorado wasn't up.

2. She got it?
She got it?!
The numbers turned?
You are telling me this now?! What's wrong with you!?
I'm watching her acceptance remarks. I'm, like, crying and whatnot.

Well, there shall be dance and celebrations and cookies! For everyone!

 

[stinkubus]

You guys thinking that GA or NC might flip are cute. They don't have fair elections.

 

[Traitorfish]

Too old, and not worthy of being the 21st century avatar of American socialism.

Yeah, but Gritty is too young to run for the presidency.

 

[BenitoChavez]

How long until we start hearing "This is the most important election of our lifetime" again? I say July 20th, 2019.

 

[stinkubus]

Given the very precarious state in which 2010-2016 has left the Democrats all of these upcoming elections are hugely important. Every single governor's mansion counts because the state houses are so rigged it's not likely that the Dems can ward off a majority large enough to call a Constitutional Convention.

Stopping the bleeding on judiciary appointments is also crucial. 8 years of Trump means a lifetime of absolutely horrendous jurisprudence on the part of our appeals courts.