And as long as they keep making shorter old fart's tees, the birdies will continue.
One of the five maidens.
One of the five maidens.
2020 US Election (Part One)
- Thread starter Lexicus
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I saw "par" and thought "Par-D har har!"
Berzerker
Deity
75% in and Buttigieg is at 26.9 and Bernie's at 25.2
Thats surprising, the small town midwest mayor just has some appeal
Thats surprising, the small town midwest mayor just has some appeal
I think its more straightforward even than that. He's the youngest and best looking in the field.
Just read that a woman tried to withdraw her vote/support for him when she found out he was gay.
I'll try to find a link.That tells you all you need to know about our countrymen and how they pick their candidates...
EDIT: Found a clip https://nypost.com/2020/02/04/iowa-voter-freaks-out-after-learning-buttigieg-is-gay/
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Berzerker
Deity
God's gonna get her for supporting the sinner
There's some reason to think the conventional exit polling has been systematically off regarding the Latino vote for a while, possibly going back to disputes with the 44% Bush 2004 figure. The argument made by a Latino polling company based on their election eve polling is that regular exit polling misses heavily Latino areas so doesn't stratify properly for Latino voters, and possibly doesn't have bilingual interviews. Maybe some precinct level analysis of the results backs this theory up in some states.
Hum, but if the exit polls are overstating the percentage of Latino votes Republicans ate getting, it must be ubderstating either the percentage of white votes (which would mean Republicans have an even bigger advantage in that demographic), or black votes (seems unlikely specially in the Obama elections).
I think Bush II was indeed relatively popular with Latinos. He speaks Spanish, was soft on immigration and has Cubans in his family.
If I had to guess, it's likely the former just because from a far larger population the error would be far smaller. If there's 6x as many non-Latino white people, a 12% error in the Latino vote would be offset by 2% in the white vote, for instance.
I think the claims here seem plausible, it'd be so easy to accidentally miss in standard polling given Latino status is such a cross-cutting thing. All it would take is oversampling a key swing state in Florida and failing to separately stratify Cubans and other Latinos. Or it could be failing to account for the Latino vote being one that perhaps varies meaningfully by variables (eg first language, demographic concentration) that don't have salience within the voting patterns of other ethnic voting groups. This wouldn't mean the trends were necessarily wrong (ie, Bush more popular), just the levels.
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sophie
Break My Heart
At least two heavy Sanders regions (Polk and Black Hawk counties) are showing massive irregularities between what the IDP is putting out and what actual polling captains are showing (i.e. the results they actually recorded in the precinct, and subsequently took pictures of and posted to facebook/twitter.) Deval ****ing Patrick is shown as beating Yang in delegate count in some precincts.
Berzerker
Deity
92% in
26.5% Buttigieg
25.6% Sanders
18.3% Warren
15.9% Biden
12.1% Klobuchar
26.5% Buttigieg
25.6% Sanders
18.3% Warren
15.9% Biden
12.1% Klobuchar
sophie
Break My Heart
Satellite precincts haven't come in yet and they still haven't fixed the ******* precincts in Polk and Black Hawk counties.
innonimatu
the resident Cassandra
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On the contrary, it matters very much. If a public vote where anyone can observe the results has been so "mishandled", the results put under dispute and delayed because reasons... imagine how it will go in the secret votes. It'll be an ongoing disaster.
Five Thirty Eight has shifted their forecast a lot lol https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo
Tonight, Barr has issued a directive that there will be no federal investigations of any candidate in the 2020 election without his personal approval.
Estebonrober
Deity
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The low turnout in Iowa is still the biggest story there and it should worry all of us who would like Trump to become history.
Old Hippy
Deity
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Trump will be history ''forever''
Eventually, but it does a lot of us no good if 1) he has four more years, 2) can pack the courts, and 3) maybe even groom a successor for another four. We're not in 2100, out of his grip and the last of his judges dying in the 2080s.
Old Hippy
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