2020 US Election (Part One)

[Socrates99]

Because that candidate is everyone's second choice? Hypothetically, of course.

Problem is we have no way of knowing that without a preferential voting system. Once they hit the convention democratic choice can be undermined by delegates that can vote however they please.

Can't remember if it was this thread or another but Lexicus posted a second choice poll and Sanders was second choice for a lot of Biden supporters. If Biden went in with the most delegates but not a majority would anyone argue that his support should go to Bernie because enough of them thought he was second best? Itd likely create a majority behind Bernie right?

In this instance the Republicans are just plain better than Democrats at democracy. An outlier for sure but true. Wow that's uncomfortable to even think about.

 

[Lexicus]

Problem is we have no way of knowing that without a preferential voting system. Once they hit the convention democratic choice can be undermined by delegates that can vote however they please.

Can't remember if it was this thread or another but Lexicus posted a second choice poll and Sanders was second choice for a lot of Biden supporters. If Biden went in with the most delegates but not a majority would anyone argue that his support should go to Bernie because enough of them thought he was second best? Itd likely create a majority behind Bernie right?

In this instance the Republicans are just plain better than Democrats at democracy. An outlier for sure but true. Wow that's uncomfortable to even think about.

Iirc trump won a straight majority of delegates in the 2016 primary tho.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Problem is we have no way of knowing that without a preferential voting system. Once they hit the convention democratic choice can be undermined by delegates that can vote however they please.

Can't remember if it was this thread or another but Lexicus posted a second choice poll and Sanders was second choice for a lot of Biden supporters. If Biden went in with the most delegates but not a majority would anyone argue that his support should go to Bernie because enough of them thought he was second best? Itd likely create a majority behind Bernie right?

In this instance the Republicans are just plain better than Democrats at democracy. An outlier for sure but true. Wow that's uncomfortable to even think about.

Delegates actually can't "vote however they please." There are tons of rules governing how they have to vote based on the outcome of the primary that got them there. Those rules do allow them to change their votes after a certain number of inconclusive ballots. That's the process for resolving a plurality rather than majority situation. That process may resolve as "hey, there's a guy with a plurality, let's just run through the necessary number of ballots to free up delegates and give him a majority," or it may not. But coming in with a plurality doesn't give anyone a right to anything, so they have nothing that can be "stolen" from them.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Iirc trump won a straight majority of delegates in the 2016 primary tho.

Indeed he did.

 

[Sommerswerd]

If he lacks a majority the other candidates will close ranks against him, whether superdelegates are involved or not.

If this happens I will eat my hat.

If Bernie is going to lose the nomination its going to be on the battlefield, not at the convention. For example, if Biden manages to lose SC and drops out as a result, the way his voters break will give us some insight into how things will ultimately shake out. Bernie is sitting at just under 28% according to RCP and Biden is just under 18%. If Biden bails and Bernie picks up most of that, say 10 points, he will become the perceived inevitable winner, and the steamrolling will start.

If on the other hand, Bernie only gets say 4 points and Bloomberg picks up 8-10 points... then that's going to be a harbinger of a race down to the wire between the two of them with one or the other staying in all the way until right before the convention, similar to 2008. But I don't see the contested convention thing happening because its a guaranteed loss for the Democrats in the general and everybody knows that.

 

[Gori the Grey]

its a guaranteed loss for the Democrats in the general and everybody knows that

and they won't be able to stop it happening, for all that.

 

[Socrates99]

That's why Bernie supporters are worried about a contested convention. Many of us full on believe there are people at the DNC whod prefer losing to Trump over running Bernie in the general.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

And there are those of us that are not hardcore Bernie supporters who fear his supporters will withdraw support for the Dem nominee if he doesn't win, even if he clearly loses by all measures in the primary. I think it'll be fine either way in the end but there's a lot of tension.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

That's why Bernie supporters are worried about a contested convention. Many of us full on believe there are people at the DNC whod prefer losing to Trump over running Bernie in the general.

As opposed to the people who think running Bernie in the general is not only no guarantee of winning but is actually a poor prospect. There's a reason Trump is constantly saying "oh Bernie, I'm afraid of Bernie, Bernie's the one who is the toughest to beat" and that reason isn't that Trump has decided this one thing he needs to tell nothing but the truth about.

 

[Estebonrober]

And there are those of us that are not hardcore Bernie supporters who fear his supporters will withdraw support for the Dem nominee if he doesn't win, even if he clearly loses by all measures in the primary. I think it'll be fine either way in the end but there's a lot of tension.

I mean to be fair though if he loses this as Gori describes it will be hard to blame them from going absent on Election Day. They shouldn’t but it’s still hard to ignore that the game has become completely rigged against the working class.

 

[Socrates99]

As opposed to the people who think running Bernie in the general is not only no guarantee of winning but is actually a poor prospect. There's a reason Trump is constantly saying "oh Bernie, I'm afraid of Bernie, Bernie's the one who is the toughest to beat" and that reason isn't that Trump has decided this one thing he needs to tell nothing but the truth about.

Where does that come from? He polls quite well against Trump.

 

[Estebonrober]

As opposed to the people who think running Bernie in the general is not only no guarantee of winning but is actually a poor prospect. There's a reason Trump is constantly saying "oh Bernie, I'm afraid of Bernie, Bernie's the one who is the toughest to beat" and that reason isn't that Trump has decided this one thing he needs to tell nothing but the truth about.

Yes but Trump is a moron. A very stupid moron.

 

[Camikaze]

When Trump hints that he's keen to face Sanders, is that anything more than just parroting what he hears on TV? I don't think he's particularly likely to be forming independent, insightful thoughts. He could be right, he could be wrong, but that's a matter of coincidence.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Where does that come from? He polls quite well against Trump.

He's never run against Trump.

 

[IglooDame]

That's why Bernie supporters are worried about a contested convention. Many of us full on believe there are people at the DNC whod prefer losing to Trump over running Bernie in the general.

That is, frankly, inconceivable to me. I can understand that DNC folk may think that Bernie can't beat Trump, therefore they want Bernie to lose the nomination, but what possible motivation could a Democrat have to prefer Trump to Bernie as president?

Hmmm... okay, maybe it is conceivable. One motivation would be if Bernie turned out to be like our Hawaiian Hindi candidate, actively attacking the DNC itself. I haven't seen any indication of that from Bernie, though. A second motivation would be the recognition that Bernie's previous Independent status cuts against the DNC long term. But then again, shouldn't they be even more opposed to Bloomberg, the onetime and semi-current Republican in Dem clothing?

 

[Timsup2nothin]

When Trump hints that he's keen to face Sanders, is that anything more than just parroting what he hears on TV? I don't think he's particularly likely to be forming independent, insightful thoughts. He could be right, he could be wrong, but that's a matter of coincidence.

He never does that. He is a perpetual "oh Sanders is their most dangerous choice" spewing machine. And if you think he is that consistent about saying something that is remotely true I'm curious as to why. The GOP machinery would LOVE to attack a ballot with Bernie at the top, guaranteed.

 

[Socrates99]

That is, frankly, inconceivable to me. I can understand that DNC folk may think that Bernie can't beat Trump, therefore they want Bernie to lose the nomination, but what possible motivation could a Democrat have to prefer Trump to Bernie as president?

Hmmm... okay, maybe it is conceivable. One motivation would be if Bernie turned out to be like our Hawaiian Hindi candidate, actively attacking the DNC itself. I haven't seen any indication of that from Bernie, though. A second motivation would be the recognition that Bernie's previous Independent status cuts against the DNC long term. But then again, shouldn't they be even more opposed to Bloomberg, the onetime and semi-current Republican in Dem clothing?

I'm not sure he'd actively attack the DNC but the nominee does get considerable power over the party, especially if they ultimately go on to win. There's a lot of money he'd shut down to help stop corruption. People hoping for appointments wouldn't get them. Him winning would ultimately crush any third way Democrat for the longterm.

Hes not really extreme or abnormal considering the party's history. Only in the last 40 years would he be considered extreme. Before that Democrats regularly advocated for similar policies. The people who'd rather see Trump in a second term than a president Sanders are the third way Democrats who'd lose all credibility and a lot of money.

 

[Socrates99]

He never does that. He is a perpetual "oh Sanders is their most dangerous choice" spewing machine. And if you think he is that consistent about saying something that is remotely true I'm curious as to why. The GOP machinery would LOVE to attack a ballot with Bernie at the top, guaranteed.

because they fully believe their ideology and think invoking "Venezuela! Er mah gawd, they eat rats!" Would be an effective attack on a guy who wants the US to catch up with the rest of the world.

 

[Lexicus]

That is, frankly, inconceivable to me. I can understand that DNC folk may think that Bernie can't beat Trump, therefore they want Bernie to lose the nomination, but what possible motivation could a Democrat have to prefer Trump to Bernie as president?

There are two broad categories of motivation. Careerist and ideological.

Ideologically, a Bernie victory would be a much greater blow to the Democratic establishment than a second Trump term. Bernie Sanders winning the Presidency would show, conclusively, that all the people who have spent decades claiming that the Democrats need to be conservative, that they must appeal to the "middle" and so on, were completely wrong. There will be no reason to continue to listen to such people in the future. Since most of these people have careers and thus income that depends on people considering them Very Wise Sages Who Know How Politics Works, this would be very bad for them. The prospect of a Bernie Sanders victory also terrifies the donor class (and mollifying the donor class with such assurances as "we're capitalists, and that's just the way it is" is a fair description of the career of someone like Nancy Pelosi, who is openly touted as one of the greatest House Speakers of all time in part due to her ability to fundraise...). Bernie Sanders isn't a "real" socialist in the sense that his policies do not really challenge the power of capital in any significant way, but this is a variation on the "no good example" imperative in US foreign policy. Bernie winning the Presidency would open up space for a politics that really does challenge the capitalists, and this terrifies them. They know they've been living on borrowed time since 2008.

Now, I realize I blended the careerism into that paragraph, but this also makes a lot more sense when you consider that the real purpose of the Democratic Party is not to win elections in order to exercise power on behalf of their constituents. Democrats (except Bernie, who is only vaguely a Democrat, and to some extent Warren) never describe what they do in these terms. The real purpose of the Democratic Party is to funnel money from donors to a network of "in" consultants and "wonks." Again, Bernie threatens these arrangements in a way that Trump simply does not. Indeed, a Trump victory allows the Democrats to continue playing the "good cop", demanding that leftists and working-class movements fall in line because otherwise the bad cop (Republicans) will come and start roughing them up.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

because they fully believe their ideology and think invoking "Venezuela! Er mah gawd, they eat rats!" Would be an effective attack on a guy who wants the US to catch up with the rest of the world.

Which it very well might be.