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2020 US Election (Part One)

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by Lexicus, Nov 13, 2018.

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  1. Lexicus

    Lexicus Deity

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    I see little reason why he shouldn't be able to work with the House. There is no reason to expect that a Republican Senate will work with any Democrat, except to do things that are bad such as cut Social Security.
     
  2. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

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    The states are not the same as when the dutch were an important group there :)
     
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  3. Timsup2nothin

    Timsup2nothin Quad B

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    Even if he has the Senate he doesn't have enough to break a filibuster...and there won't be a solid block of Democrat senators or house members looking to work on things that are death in their next re-election bid anyway. So he either risks being labeled a <gasp> compromiser, or he gets nothing done. I'm guessing that a President Bernie doesn't accomplish much and leaves a legacy of a "Progress Caucus" that is functionally the same as the "Freedom Caucus." About fifty members who hold the majority of the party hostage to their unworkable demands and lead it out into untenable weeds to die.
     
  4. Camikaze

    Camikaze Administrator Administrator

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    To a large extent, the world in which Sanders wins is not a world in which his policies are death at the next election.
     
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  5. Zardnaar

    Zardnaar Deity

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    Yeah President Sanders can't get much done. He either compromises or gets not much done.

    If he wins big he might have enough political capital to tweak healthcare care or minor tax hike.

    He's not going to get a green new deal or whatever assuming he wins. It's not like the Democrats actually have to follow him en masse.
     
  6. Ironsided

    Ironsided Flower of happiness

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    Now it’s rolling and it’s a freight train. Poor DNC, poor corporate media, if Bernie wins and wins, eventually they’re gonna drag Chris Matthews to central park and raise his taxes by a small but meaningful percentage. He might have to sponsor two or three poor kids’ eyeglasses, maybe even a wheelchair, maybe for an immigrant child – without the recognition it came from his bloated paychecks – the social democratic terror.

    No other nominee has ever won all three Iowa (real winner), NH and NV. Watch the media hyperbole coming now Bernie is the presumptive nominee. Remember they used that term for Hillary every chance they had last time. You use it now. Use it often and use it with pride. Bernie Sanders – presumptive democratic nominee.
     
  7. mitsho

    mitsho Deity

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    When would be a better time to elect a Sanders-like Leftist but against Trump? There will never be a better opportunity since I could see Bernie struggling against a Romney or a McCain. But it probably don’t matter all that much, who the democratic nominee is. So, yes I see the appeal of Bernie now, just not for me. I can‘t say what he would mean for the downballot races in remote places, but I can see him bringing out young people will cancel out any negative effect of people not going for him. These would just leave the presidency field open.
     
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  8. Timsup2nothin

    Timsup2nothin Quad B

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    From which perspective? I live in a knife edge district. It has been grinding away at the gerrymandering for a generation, went slightly for Hillary because Trump was so obviously bad but still re-elected GOP congressman that was the chosen successor to the retired eight or ten termer to his second term. In 2018 when he was demonstrably a Trumpist boot licker he got edged out by a Democrat who ran on "centrist values I was raised by a veteran turned cop and..." I don't remember the mother's description but it was clearly a "my own parents are Republicans I won't go off the deep end trust me" campaigning. IF we manage to hold the seat it will not be with someone who has the latitude to go to Washington and embrace Sanders or they are out in 2022...unless Sanders compromises.
     
  9. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Deity

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    Was there ever a moment that the Dutch were important in and on what is now US territory ?

    I think not !
    Yes we had a trading post there for a while until conquered by the English who saw the now US territory as a colonial asset instead as a trading post.

    I think the only lasting effect was the migration of Sephardic Jews to New Amsterdam, now New York (from Portugal-Spain to Antwerpen and then to Dutch Amsterdam. And then to our Latin American trading posts (the warm climate again), and then directly or indirectly through Curacao to New Amsterdam because we lost/sold our trading posts there to Portugal who banned the Jews there (not killed because of the selling deal).

    That whole West-Indian adventure of the Dutch was not a profitable business after all, except for raiding Portugese and Spanish fleets with sugar, silver and gold.

    And supporting the US rebellion and independence was again a lossmaking activity. It did cost us another war with England.
    And yes... we were honored for our support by the new USA because their first two ships of their Navy build as independent country were named after two Dutch citizens.
    But what do you buy for that ?
     
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  10. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

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    I don't know, at least Washington Irving has a fetish with the dutch. Maybe he even mentions Piet Noir somewhere :D
     
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  11. Camikaze

    Camikaze Administrator Administrator

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    If Sanders wins, it may demonstrate that populism is more of a winning strategy in swing districts than centrism. The populism-centrism axis may be treated as completely different from the left-right axis, and if a policy can be situated on the former rather than the latter, it can have broader appeal than might traditionally be thought.

    I personally don't buy the idea that the 'revolution' will universally change everyone's minds, such that every Democrat in congress will be fully on board with Sanders' agenda; but I do think a convincing Sanders victory with congressional coattails would result in an adjustment to conventional wisdom, making his agenda easier to implement than it would be today.
     
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  12. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Deity

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    One easy way to see which European peoples took lasting influence is to list up the original country of the family of US presidents.

    As context there
    Before, at the start and during most of the time of the USA as sovereign country most immigrants in terms of volume came from what is now Ireland, then Germany-Germanic, and then what is now the UK.

    Well... how many "Irish" presidents had the US ?
    How many "German" presidents had the US ?

    In total a few.

    Ofc the ancestor families of presidents are somewhat mixed over time
    But the overwhelming bloodline is.... English

    Starting with English aristocracy-elite and transgressing to the elite nouveau riche of mostly English heritage.

    When it is about the top-top elite: not much of a melting pot :goodjob:

    Trump not only an outlier of that establishment... but also with a clear German bloodline an outlier (with BTW getting much support from also the fly-over states that are originally populated with.... Germanic immigrants)
    Such a consternation.
     
    Last edited: Feb 23, 2020
  13. klar_heiland

    klar_heiland Chieftain

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    Hmm, Irish: Kennedy and of course O'Bama
    German: there was this Eisenhauer guy
     
  14. amadeus

    amadeus As seen on OT

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    Both Al Gore and John Kerry won those 3 states in their campaigns though they were not necessarily held in that order. Kerry lost an initial contest in D.C., but then picked up after that.

    Sanders winning the 3 contests says more about how infrequent open and competitive Democratic primaries have been. Still an accomplishment, but not really scalable enough to call it a blowout.
     
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  15. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Deity

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    oh yes
    there are a few !
    But they were mostly extraordinary people in terms of charisma
    And Kennedy was a real feat because of the additional hurdle of being Catholic in those days (the 60ies)

    I once digged through the full list of presidents because of some discussion elsewhere on the "melting pot theory" in order to demonstrate the the US political elite never really experienced a melting pot, certainly not before WW2.
     
  16. AmazonQueen

    AmazonQueen Virago

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    And one president whose parents were Dutch, Martin Van Buren.
     
  17. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Deity

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    yes I know
    I did my homework thoroughly because of that discussion I had once (see post to klar-heiland)

    But exceptions confirm the rule !

    (Am I now too lazy to dig again in that list of presidents ?)
     
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  18. tuckerkao

    tuckerkao King

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    After the Democratic Nevada caucus, Bernie Sanders is firmly becoming the inevitable nominee. I don't think any other Democrats have the chance to win the key primary states unless Joe Biden drops out after South Carolina primary when no goals are achieved. The moderate Democrats are too divided at this moment.

    The only strong enough living Democrat who can beat President Trump is Barack Obama, but Obama already very unfortunately ran out of turns.
     
    Last edited: Feb 23, 2020
  19. EnglishEdward

    EnglishEdward Deity

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    I think that Bernie Sanders has an excellent chance of beating the Donald Trump.

    My reasons for this are that:

    (a) Bernie Sanders can meaningfully promise change while Donald Trump
    cannot because he is standing for a second term

    and

    (b) Bernie Sanders is a generally polite old white man, and the USA will
    be bored with having, a crude in your face, old white man by November.
     
    Last edited: Feb 23, 2020
  20. ThERat

    ThERat Deity

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    OP. did you watch too much MSM? Obama? People were so sick of 8 years of establishment, they voted for Trump to end just that.
     
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