2020 US Election (Part One)

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At the end of the day, yes. If you present the policy as intending to pay down the debt, but then don't pay down the debt, you open yourself up to basically accurate accusations that you lied. I don't think the political effects of that would be very good.

I give you as contrary evidence, uh, every taxation and spending bill the GOP has sold to the public over the last 40 years.

Like it or not, looking like you are being "fiscally responsible" is important politically, as that term is widely (mis)understood. You might fudge some on whether the debt will actually get paid down, but there is a mountain of evidence that there is basically no political downside to talking up a thing's ability to lower deficits or, in case of surplus, even pay down debt.

If we're going to crap on milquetoasty moderates who let comity and appeasing the right get in the way of progressive reform, than I submit we also crap on wishy-washy desire for total honesty, when fudging some things can help get needed reforms passed. "We're going to restore economic justice in a FISCALLY RESPONSIBLE way" will sell better. That's just the reality here. So if you're fudging a little, who cares?
 
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Like it or not, looking like you are being "fiscally responsible" is important politically,

Then how does the GOP get away with not being "fiscally responsible"? The answer is that no one actually cares about fiscal responsibility, fiscal responsibility is a false concept designed to obstruct public policy that challenges the power of capitalists.

Whatever political advantage results from playing that game, I do not believe it will ever be greater than the disadvantages of buying into a fundamentally dishonest narrative the only purpose of which is to obstruct public policy that the Democratic Party is supposed to exist to be trying to enact.
 
Then how does the GOP get away with not being "fiscally responsible"?

Because looking like they are being fiscally responsible is an entirely different thing from being fiscally responsible. The first is a political necessity, the second is irrelevant.
 
I know a woman here in SATX (big city sorta) whose job is to get people on medicaid. She's pro immigration. She's a millennial.

She's a Republican! Why? "I want more money in my bank account."

I'm gonna win all the elections guys. "When I am King, more money in your bank account!"
 
Because looking like they are being fiscally responsible is an entirely different thing from being fiscally responsible. The first is a political necessity, the second is irrelevant.

They don't look like they are fiscally responsible though!
 
They don't look like they are fiscally responsible though!

In 2012 as I was campaigning for Obama I discovered that federal spending as a percentage of GDP had climbed consistently under Republican administrations, and declined under Democratic administrations. I also discovered that deficits grew much faster under Republican administrations. I was pretty well flabbergasted by these facts, because Republican voters don't go looking for the actual information any more than the average Democratic voter does. Truthfully, when I took to referencing those facts other people who were campaigning for Obama were usually just as surprised as the opposition was. The fact is that the GOP has monopolized the fiscal responsibility appearance issue.
 
In 2012 as I was campaigning for Obama I discovered that federal spending as a percentage of GDP had climbed consistently under Republican administrations, and declined under Democratic administrations. I also discovered that deficits grew much faster under Republican administrations. I was pretty well flabbergasted by these facts, because Republican voters don't go looking for the actual information any more than the average Democratic voter does. Truthfully, when I took to referencing those facts other people who were campaigning for Obama were usually just as surprised as the opposition was. The fact is that the GOP has monopolized the fiscal responsibility appearance issue.

What, in your mind, does "look like they are fiscally responsible" actually consist of?
 
What, in your mind, does "look like they are fiscally responsible" actually consist of?

It consists of the vast majority of voters, including at least half the democrats, saying "fiscal responsibility, reduced deficits...yeah, that's the Republicans." Thankfully, I think that is finally fading a little bit, since it is patently false, but I'm pretty sure it is still true.
 
How do you think the Democrats should make themselves appear fiscally responsible then? Constantly talk about how fiscally responsible they are?
 
How do you think the Democrats should make themselves appear fiscally responsible then? Constantly talk about how fiscally responsible they are?

I found that acknowledging "yeah, we are the tax and spend party, as opposed to the opposition that is don't tax, spend anyway" works really well. GOP legislation invariably relies on fantasy or outright bad math to explain how it will somehow pay off. The ACA was a thousand pages...a hundred pages of what it was going to do and 900 pages of where the money was coming from. That's responsible.
 
Why would you set yourself up for a Republican trap like that? All you do then is give Republicans a 24/7 battering ram against Dems when Dems are in power if they're "supposed to be responsible." It just creates a storm of "well Dems now will have to cut spending and pursue austerity." Just abandon the pretense in the first place because nobody cares.

Obamacare in part got Dems blasted in 2010. Responsible is an electoral death wish.
 
Responsible is an electoral death wish.

Only in contrast. When it is contrasted against the false image of fiscal responsibility, sure. When contrasted against the reality of profligate spending with no consideration or understanding of where the funding is going to come from it isn't. Responsibility isn't a synonym for austerity.
 
I found that acknowledging "yeah, we are the tax and spend party, as opposed to the opposition that is don't tax, spend anyway" works really well. GOP legislation invariably relies on fantasy or outright bad math to explain how it will somehow pay off. The ACA was a thousand pages...a hundred pages of what it was going to do and 900 pages of where the money was coming from. That's responsible.

900 pages of work, and the perception remains, according to your own claim, that Republicans are the party of fiscal responsibility. Sounds like a poor investment to me.

The thing you're not quite getting, I think, is that the 900 pages was only that complex because the Democrats are wussies and won't just take the money from the rich. I am repeating a post I made not too long ago (I think it might even have been in this thread?) but Vox has a handy tool where you can design your own wealth tax along the lines of Elizabeth Warren's proposal. I was able to raise over $1.3 trillion by hitting households with $5m or more with a 5% wealth tax! It took me, like, twelve seconds. I admit it must have taken the folks at Vox quite a bit longer than twelve seconds to get it to the point where I could only take twelve seconds, but I can't imagine it was the same amount of work that went into those 900 pages of the ACA.

It isn't "responsible" in any real sense to create an entirely new 900-page taxation system because you (think you) are too politically impotent to just take the money from rich people. And it really is that easy: "we will take the money from rich people." There are rich people in the US, hundreds of them, thousands, maybe millions, who are so rich that if you took away four-fifths of their money they wouldn't even notice!
 
I found that acknowledging "yeah, we are the tax and spend party, as opposed to the opposition that is don't tax, spend anyway" works really well. GOP legislation invariably relies on fantasy or outright bad math to explain how it will somehow pay off. The ACA was a thousand pages...a hundred pages of what it was going to do and 900 pages of where the money was coming from. That's responsible.

That is literally how Hillary conducted her campaign. Every platform position she held was supported by economic analyses by experts demonstrating projected benefits to the economy and how those benefits would either reduce the deficit or at least end up being cost-neutral. She was, in every sense imaginable, the quintessential, consummate technocrat: vote for me because I am the most educated, most qualified, and most demonstrably competent candidate for the job and here are my 2500 binders of economic analyses compiled by my army of experts to demonstrate that. She lost. Horribly. To the guy who spent the entire election cycle making vague proclamations about how he's going to build a giant wall (whose precise cost even he couldn't keep consistent in his head) and that he was going to get the Mexicans to pay for it...somehow, and when he was asked to specify that "somehow," he made vague overtures about trade deficits and tariffs (again without anything in the way of specifics). And despite it being demonstrated, time and time again, that he has no idea what he's doing, that he acts impulsively and without stopping even for a moment to consider the costs or consequences of his decisions, and despite the fact that this lack of foresight continues time and again to blow up horribly in his face to the detriment of the millions of Americans he is duty-bound to serve, he still maintains a consistent base of enthusiastic voters, who remain convinced that he is a mastermind and a shrewd businessman, and that his policies, despite all evidence to the contrary, are working flawlessly.

I think it's time to recognize that most people don't care about whether a policy is "economically sound" or has been "vetted by policy wonks and think tanks." They care about if it sounds good (in an inspiring/energizing way) and if it aligns with their personal morals and groks with their worldview of how things should work. This isn't to say that politicians should disregard whether or not their policy goals are viable, or should adopt a Trumpian policy-by-twitter-fiat approach to governing. But rather that if the Democrats want to win elections they need to get away from this technocratic "we had experts run three million monte carlo simulations and forecasts demonstrate that this policy proposal is consistent with a 4% increase in GDP growth year-over-year versus the policy our opponent is proposing," and onto selling things in a way that are exciting and motivate people to go to the polls and vote.

By the way, the above is also why the Republicans continue to hold popular support, despite being obviously hypocritical as regards being "the party of fiscal responsibility," and also despite championing policies that demonstrably harm their electoral base. Electoral politics aren't about who did what, but rather about what you're telling prospective voters and how you're telling them. It's a big part of why I think discussions about, say, healthcare, really need to get away from fiscal discussions, and into:

a) moral arguments (nobody should have to choose between utter economic ruin and not dying; if we purport to be the greatest nation on Earth then we should start treating our citizens as such; etc.)

and

b) Elaborations on day-to-day quality of life benefits a voter will enjoy (i.e.: everything is covered and you never again have to worry about how you're going to pay for it; imagine getting into an accident and not having to worry if the ambulance that will pick you up is covered by your insurance, or dreading surviving the emergency and having to spend the next 6 months fighting with your insurance company to get them to do their job). I think this is also, incidentally, a big part of why I hate the Medicare access for all crowd. In addition to it being a horsehockey half-measure, it also cedes the political high ground. Nobody actually cares about their "plan," and nobody actually wants to keep their plan; what they care about, rather, is coverage and how their ability to get consistent, reliable and affordable healthcare will be impacted. Medicare for All allays concerns about this. Medicare Access for All doesn't.
 
900 pages of work, and the perception remains, according to your own claim, that Republicans are the party of fiscal responsibility. Sounds like a poor investment to me.

As I pointed out, the GOP reputation as 'the party of fiscal responsibility' has markedly deteriorated. I'd call that pretty good returns, hence not that poor an investment.

I am fully in favor of a wealth tax. I've always been fully in favor of a wealth tax. One of the biggest offenses of the GOP tax bill, in my opinion, was the removal of the estate tax, which is the only wealth based tax that we had. I would love to see a democrat controlled congress with a democrat in the white house enact a wealth tax. If you think you can craft actual tax code to produce such law "in twelve seconds," good freakin' luck. A working wealth tax requires an effective system for measurement of wealth. Go ahead and produce that, then give us a call. We just watched a lawyer who represented a real estate mogul talk about the myriad ways that he and his boss inflated and deflated wealth like a happy balloon, on a regular basis. He plainly demonstrated that banks don't really have any effective way to measure wealth. The idea that a health care bill with "oh, hey, we'll just pay for it by tacking on a couple pages enacting a wealth tax" would be responsible...anything...is totally absurd.
 
A working wealth tax requires an effective system for measurement of wealth.
Warren has pointed out that the wealthy insure their precious possessions, and that that could provide a pretty good way of estimating. People want their insurance estimates to be accurate: enough to cover the thing if it is stolen, but not so much that I'm paying more to insure it than I should.
 
Warren has pointed out that the wealthy insure their precious possessions, and that that could provide a pretty good way of estimating. People want their insurance estimates to be accurate: enough to cover the thing if it is stolen, but not so much that I'm paying more to insure it than I should.

So, insured value? That makes a very strong case for underinsuring. But how much wealth is actually tied up in insured possessions? As opposed to owned through layer upon layer of shell corporations?
 
Hillary barely lost and I love technocrats. I didn't like Hillary as a candidate because I saw committee hearings from here to kingdom come into her past. I still choked it down and thought her hearings would be better for america than Trumps. I think I've been proven right considering our nation has demonstrably shown it is being ran by a petty white collar gangster.

There are 11 million millionaires in the US as of last year. The US economy was 20 trillion strong last year. We do not lack for resources, creativity or manpower. We can do whatever we chose to do, it just so happens right now that means drink a lot, get high a lot, let the rich buy 5 yachts, and ignore any of the world's problems.
 
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