2020 US Election (Part One)

[Lexicus]

I'm not saying either situation is the same for Biden. But the people saying that the examples being thrown up are proof positive of senility must not have had much experience with people who experience actual cognitive decline or speech difficulties, or just public speaking in general.

I would say they are more suggestive than proof positive, and for the record I watched three grandparents go down that route...

It's not the reason those people actually oppose Biden.

I'm genuinely concerned about it. I mean, even if you're correct and there's nothing wrong with his mind, the fact that everyone is already talking about it means it's gonna be an issue in the general election. It's true, the main reasons I have for opposing Biden are not concerns about cognitive decline, but like...

Let's say you're right and it is a stutter. What's Joe gonna do when Trump starts playing it up and mocking him about it?

 

[hobbsyoyo]

Let's say you're right and it is a stutter. What's Joe gonna do when Trump starts playing it up and mocking him about it?

Shred him the way he did Paul Ryan?

 

[Lexicus]

Shred him the way he did Paul Ryan?

Trump and Paul Ryan aren't even in the same universe as debate or electoral opponents.

 

[Bamspeedy]

You don't condense "Iowa was a democratic caucus" to "I was a democratic caucus" either due to stuttering.

Do you actually hear 'I was' (instead of Iowa's) or are you relying on the closed captioning? Closed captioning is ALWAYS riddled with errors and typos.

 

[Berzerker]

A stutter might contribute to Biden's problems and most people with kin old enough probably have seen dementia at varying stages, I sure did. But the video of him back in 2012 and now shows a marked difference, he's on the decline whereas Sanders still sounds sharp, its his ticker thats of concern.

 

[Estebonrober]

A stutter might contribute to Biden's problems and most people with kin old enough probably have seen dementia at varying stages, I sure did. But the video of him back in 2012 and now shows a marked difference, he's on the decline whereas Sanders still sounds sharp, its his ticker thats of concern.

it doesn’t really matter. Progressives are going to vote for Bernie liberals for Biden. Both will vote for whoever wins to save Ginsberg’s SCOTUS chair.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

it doesn’t really matter. Progressives are going to vote for Bernie liberals for Biden. Both will vote for whoever wins to save Ginsberg’s SCOTUS chair.

That's accurate bottom lining it right there.

 

[Kyriakos]

Do you actually hear 'I was' (instead of Iowa's) or are you relying on the closed captioning? Closed captioning is ALWAYS riddled with errors and typos.

I hear two syllables. "Iowa's" is more than that, certainly. No one is trying to suggest Biden didn't want to say "Iowa (wa)s". The difference is what he said, probably "I (meaning Iowa, the rest eaten up) was a democratic caucus".
Though this is nothing compared to the rest, just shows lack of being aware of how the words come out.

 

[Gori the Grey]

What's Joe gonna do when Trump starts playing it up and mocking him about it?

Be charmingly demented as against Trump's malicious dementia. It'll play just fine.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Monmouth polling in Michigan out today has Biden up fifteen.

Warren looks like an idiot for staying and getting blown out in her home state while Klobacher had the sense to bail ahead of hers. It's too late for Sanders to avoid what is shaping up to be a brutal embarrassment tomorrow, but he really needs to think about a graceful exit before the embarrassment is so bad that it is a fatal blow to his movement. It may be too late already but I'm pretty sure this week is his last chance if he has one at all.

 

[Sommerswerd]

A stutter might contribute to Biden's problems and most people with kin old enough probably have seen dementia at varying stages, I sure did. But the video of him back in 2012 and now shows a marked difference, he's on the decline whereas Sanders still sounds sharp, its his ticker thats of concern.

There's always health concerns, regardless... especially with candidates this old. The focal point for me is comparisons to the Trump administration.

Monmouth polling in Michigan out today has Biden up fifteen.

Warren looks like an idiot for staying and getting blown out in her home state while Klobacher had the sense to bail ahead of hers. It's too late for Sanders to avoid what is shaping up to be a brutal embarrassment tomorrow, but he really needs to think about a graceful exit before the embarrassment is so bad that it is a fatal blow to his movement. It may be too late already but I'm pretty sure this week is his last chance if he has one at all.

I saw an article citing a 27 point lead for Biden in Michigan.

I really have no idea where Bernie would go with his narrative after a 10+ point loss in MI, let alone a 20+ point loss...

AOC has stated publicly that she will back Biden if he wins the nomination. I think she recognizes that the worst case scenario for the progressive cause is for Biden to win seemingly without their support.

Warren is in a tough spot. If she backs Biden now, she gets branded a traitor by Bernie's supporters and blamed for Bernie losing. If she endorses Bernie, she get branded a traitor by the Democratic party and labeled as persona-non-grata. If she stays quiet she gets labeled as as a fair weather friend by both... I think she's gotta go with door #3 until there is a clear nominee, then endorse the inevitable winner. Its her best option at this point.​

 

[Takhisis]

I read some interesting data that said that even though Dem voters have shifted quite to the left in the last 4 years, the primaries so far have had more moderate and conservative voters as a percentage than expected, making the progressive vote less as a percentage, because lots of independents and Republicans are voting in Dem primaries when possible, much more so than before. I guess this suggests that Biden can win that support, but it also suggest Democrats lost and Republicans won, because even a worst case Republican scenario is one where they get to dictate the more moderate candidate to Dem party members.

Proactive shifting of the Overton window in plain sight!

 

[Lexicus]

Be charmingly demented as against Trump's malicious dementia. It'll play just fine.

The more reassurances I get from people who were sure Hillary would beat Trump last time, the less reassured I get.

 

[Sommerswerd]

Proactive shifting of the Overton window in plain sight!

Progress. The alternative risks seem to be 1) for the Democrats to lose with Biden and then run a young, attractive, charismatic liberal/progressive messiah which results in an ultra-conservative backlash; or 2) lose with Bernie which results in a neoliberal renaissance.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

I saw an article citing a 27 point lead for Biden in Michigan.

I really have no idea where Bernie would go with his narrative after a 10+ point loss in MI, let alone a 20+ point loss...

AOC has stated publicly that she will back Biden if he wins the nomination. I think she recognizes that the worst case scenario for the progressive cause is for Biden to win seemingly without their support.

Warren is in a tough spot. If she backs Biden now, she gets branded a traitor by Bernie's supporters and blamed for Bernie losing. If she endorses Bernie, she get branded a traitor by the Democratic party and labeled as persona-non-grata. If she stays quiet she gets labeled as as a fair weather friend by both... I think she's gotta go with door #3 until there is a clear nominee, then endorse the inevitable winner. Its her best option at this point.​

Getting spanked in states that were close in 2016 is bad, but if the polling holds he loses in Washington tomorrow, and if he loses a state where he won by 45 points four years ago the stench of death is so strong that Warren has to pull the plug on him. If he is smart and actually cares about the progressive movement he is already in contact with her so they can make it some sort of joint statement.

 

[Sommerswerd]

Progress. The alternative risks seem to be 1) for the Democrats to lose with Biden and then run a young, attractive, charismatic liberal/progressive messiah which results in an ultra-conservative backlash; or 2) lose with Bernie which results in a neoliberal renaissance.

FTR, I'm not confident that Biden or Bernie can beat Trump. I will admit that especially after Super Tuesday... I think a Bernie loss would be alot worse electorally than a Biden one... with Bernie I'm expecting a loss to be a Dukakis/Mondale-like showing, whereas with Biden I'm expecting a Gore/Kerry-like showing... but either way, I'm not optimistic.

With either candidate, I think a win would be by-the-skin-of-your-teeth and I don't see the Senate flipping regardless... maybe the outlook improves over the next few months?

 

[Lexicus]

FTR, I'm not confident that Biden or Bernie can beat Trump. I will admit that especially after Super Tuesday... I think a Bernie loss would be alot worse electorally than a Biden one... with Bernie I'm expecting a loss to be a Dukakis/Mondale-like showing, whereas with Biden I'm expecting a Gore/Kerry-like showing... but either way, I'm not optimistic.

Same yo. I'm starting to think American electoral politics are a lost cause...we need a civil war to thin out the conservatives...

 

[Sommerswerd]

Same yo. I'm starting to think American electoral politics are a lost cause...we need a civil war to thin out the conservatives...

I'm not taking to the streets, rifle-in-hand and neither are you, thus my reference to Gil Scott Heron earlier.

One solution is immigration... always has been... the Democrats blew it during Obama's first term by going all in on healthcare and taking up their whole term to do it. What they should have done is rammed through a pathway to citizenship. They could have added restoration of the franchise to felons for good measure, as well as expanding voting options and access on a national scale. When more people vote, Democrats win. The more people who are able to vote, the easier it will be for Democrats to get elected.

Democrats need to counter the Republicans by focusing more on process. They need to start getting control of the rules of the game if they want to empower their constituents to keep them in office.

 

[Kyriakos]

No one cares about Warren - it is why she dropped out. She endorsed Hillary in 2016, so why would she do different now.
I think that this is leading to a second term for Trump, so I find the stupidity of choosing Biden very good as a self-destructive action. I expect to see surprise when Biden doesn't get treated as he does by the Dnc, when the election debates with Trump come and he becomes a charade on stage due to having to talk for more than 5 min.
After all, the goal was to hide his state so as to win the nomination. The actual elections don't matter.

 

[GoodEnoughForMe]

I was talking with my wife in the car earlier today that I suspect coronavirus is helping Biden and hurting both Trump and Bernie big time, as people are now looking for comfort, how things were, normalcy, etc., etc., and Bernie's "revolution" mantra sounds scary to those with coronavirus concerns, and sure enough, those who say it is a big concern, according to NPR, are voting for Biden over Bernie by over 2:1 numbers. Tough break for Bernie. Especially because national health are and sick leave and free vaccines (Bernie's policy) would do way more to stop it.