Alternate History Thread IV: The Sequel

I've thought about it and tinkered with the idea..But before I go too far, anyone actually ever write an alt hist where MacArthur got what he wanted and bombed China? Did the US and USSR have enough bombs at this point to cause a nuclear holocaust if war had happend? Also anyone know if Dewey had been elected instead of Truman would he have been much more like to let MacArthur go ahead with attacking?
Getting rid of Truman has much wider implications considering you have to wrap up WWII and 5 additional years of the start of the Cold War before even getting to Korea. There's basically no way in hell Truman would ever have let MacArthur boss him around either.
 
If you want to get rid of truman (making Barkley president) you could have the 1950 assassination attempt succeed. Barkley, might be more 'bossable' by MacArthur
 
If you want to get rid of truman (making Barkley president) you could have the 1950 assassination attempt succeed. Barkley, might be more 'bossable' by MacArthur
Given this character sketch, I sincerely doubt it. Barkley doesn't look like a pushover by any standard, particularly if he had Truman's total trust. MacArthur was for a long time known as the most dangerous man in America for a reason, and you can bet most anybody on Capitol Hill knew it--particularly an "Old Warhorse" like Barkley, even if he was in decline during Truman's last term.

Plus MacArthur drew X's all over China for spots he wanted to nuke. He wanted to create a radioactive border along the Yalu River. Even if he could exert influence and even if Barkley could be pushed around, I don't think a man that independent-minded would be that stupid.
 
Dewey ran against Truman in 1948, 3 years after WWII was over, so we wouldnt have a problem there. I suppose Truman losing in general (which would be highly possible...all he would need to do is screw up a speech or something badly) could lead to a dramatically different Cold War in every direction. Korea could still be used as the first hot spot though.

I also don't know if Dewey would have tolerated McCarthy or not. Dewey in all fairness was a fairly reasonable man, and Truman didn't do much to curb McCarthy's power, but some members of Dewey's administration might have been right wing enough to significantly increase McCarthy's power long to make the cold war more likely to turn hot...Something like a more powerful McCarthy could lead to more public support to action against communism which could possibly even lead to MacArthur acting without presidential authority..Though I don't know if even HE would do that....Also a stronger republican party might actually prove bad for McCarthy as he wouldnt be able to play the blame game quite as well.....I dont know enough on the era to make any really valid assesments though. Just pondering out loud. (or through text I guess)
 
nvm

I guess it was there before.
 
McCarthy wasn't that bad. He WAS genuinely concerned about communism, and did indeed root out a few communist sympathizers (Although he was only concerned on communists in the government, and not in the general American populace) That still doesn't mean I liked him or his methods though. :p
 
Heres sort of what I figured out might be a starting point for a possible alt-time line....

-Dewey narrowly defeats Truman in election of 1948.

-After winning election, in an attempt to win over some of the more conservative elements of the Republican Party, Dewey asks Macarthur to be Secretary of Defense. Macarthur refuses saying he wishes to continue heading the reconstruction of Japan. Dewey then appoints General Curtis Lemay. However in an attempt to keep balance in his administration, Dwight D. Eisenhower is appointed Secretary of State.

-Because the Marshall Plan was showing only minimal success at this point, Congress passes a new version. The new bill offers less then half the money originally proposed, and refuses money completely too many states not directly effected by war. (Turkey, Portugal, Switzerland, Iceland, Sweden, Ireland). Eisenhower talks about resigning in protest.

-The Korean War breaks out and goes much like it does in OTL up until Macarthur’s approach on the Yalu River.

-White House repairs cause President Dewey to instead stay at the Blair-Lee house in Washington, DC. Puerto Rican nationalist break in and shoot Dewey before being gunned down by secret service men themselves. President Dewey is transported to the nearest hospital and was considered to be in stable condition. Earl Warren becomes Acting President.

-Reconnaissance flights show Chinese forces massing at the Yalu River. Macarthur having no love for Earl Warren instead confers with Defense Secretary Lemay. Lemay gives him the go ahead to bomb Chinese positions across the Yalu River.
 
-After winning election, in an attempt to win over some of the more conservative elements of the Republican Party, Dewey asks Macarthur to be Secretary of Defense. Macarthur refuses saying he wishes to continue heading the reconstruction of Japan. Dewey then appoints General Curtis Lemay. However in an attempt to keep balance in his administration, Dwight D. Eisenhower is appointed Secretary of State.
LeMay is going to be rather too busy running the Berlin Airlift until May 11, 1949 (and doing an effective job of it) and was slated to take over SAC upon his return (which wasn't a prestigious assignment at the time). Given he also stayed in the military until 1965 OTL (and then only due to stonewalling by that idiot McNamara), I don't think he had that much interest in directing wars as in fighting them and preparing for them.
 
He did run as a VP candidate for George Wallace, so he had some political ambition and direct control the airlift could always be passed to someone else. I mean as defense secretary he'd basically be running a lot of stuff like that anyways but Ill go with you on that unless anyone can say something very contrary I guess...

Groves might work also...Any extreme right-wing general or politician would actually. He just came to mind first.
 
Yet another attempt to revive the thread: I finally finished a TL.

Don't all get excited at once. :p

Note: For this part, I decided to go with recommendations that the Ottoman Empire not be partitioned nearly so much as it was. Therefore, the borders in the Balkans can be seen as roughly comparable to those of 1900 OTL, with the exception that the Greeks control Salonika and Ioannina, which were their OTL gains of the 1912-3 Balkan Wars but were awarded to Greece for services rendered during the Great European War, such as they were. Bulgaria controls Eastern Rumelia as well as its core territories, Serbia has its own core plus Kosovo, and Bosnia was given to the new “Republic” of Hungary. The Middle Eastern and Armenian border changes were kept, as were those in the Danubian Principalities. Turkey itself has been made into a republic, and the former Ottoman sultans now only hold their title of caliph, and reside in Baghdad, now part of British Mesopotamia. Also, Italy has still been partitioned, but the north is just a puppet French confederacy under the presidency of the Pope.

La Belle Époque.

“History is simply a piece of paper covered with print; the main things is still to make history, not to write it.”
-Kanzler Otto von Bismarck

The ink had dried on the Treaty of Frankfurt, and all Europe rejoiced: the Great European War, three years of bloody conflict and destruction, was finally over. The Continent had finally returned to the productive era of peace and prosperity that it had enjoyed for forty years after Vienna. Hopes just as high were entertained for this particular piece of paper. And indeed, despite complaints about the flaws in the treaty – the massive new German Empire chief among them – this document would govern Europe through a safe and relatively calm four decades. The areas that would be in dispute were obvious. Italy was split between French and British influence – if any proxy wars were to be fought, that would be the first place in line. Too, the remnant of the Ottoman Empire still controlled a large tract of Europe in Thrace and Macedonia, an ethnic mishmash of just about every Balkan nationality except Turkish; there would be much hatred simmering in that ill-starred part of the world. Russia, of course, had been enlarged by new acquisitions in the former Habsburg and Ottoman lands, and appeared nearly as ominous as its western neighbor. And finally, last but most definitely not least, the British Empire had expanded even larger, encompassing a huge new colony in the Middle East to add to its Indian and Australian possessions.

Otto von Bismarck, the chancellor of the most powerful state in Europe, was determined to let this peace hold. The nations’ differences must be papered over; compromise or partition was the order of the day when considering disputed lands. The energy of the European states was to be drawn outward, in an age of imperialism, an age of imposition upon the unwashed masses of the savage world. New attention was focused on Asia, where the Great Powers would play an intense proxy game, where the stakes were supreme influence and the price was relatively negligible. Africa was largely passed over (save for those lands in which Britain was interested, e.g. Egypt and Libya). Instead, the Americas became once again the field for contest and competition. Despite the failure of the French expedition to Mexico at the end of the American Civil War in 1864, greedy eyes were still focused on Latin America. Spain – rejuvenated and invigorated by the new Emperor, Maximilian I – itched to reclaim its former colonies, and France sought an outlet for her ambitions after being at least temporarily barred from Africa. The two things that protected the Americas from these two Powers had been the Royal Navy and the strength of the United States. Following the strife of the last few decades, though, there were certain fissures in America that could be exploited…

America had, in 1864, been arguably the most powerful nation in the world following its rapid mobilization of industry and experience gained in fighting against the skilled Southern general Lee and his subordinates. Now, nearly twenty years later, the United States were ruled by a bombastic, somewhat foolish President (George Armstrong Custer, elected in 1880 to a second term despite charges of corruption leveled against his Administration), the Southern states seethed in barely concealed hatred following the bloody grind of the jäger war of the sixties and early seventies, the Army was demobilized and reorganized for fighting against the native tribes of the Plains, and the Navy had been allowed to decay for the last two decades after the end of the great blockade. On the other hand, the French had spent the three years since the end of the war in 1878 creating a new model army under the auspices of the Prince-Imperial Napoleon Eugene. The scaled down version of the mitrailleuse, combined with the improved chassepot rifles and better, quick-firing artillery gave the French a technological edge over everyone save possibly the Germans, and the generals themselves had studied the lessons of the Great European War in an effort to learn from previous mistakes and thoroughly prepare for the next conflict. Spain, for their part, had – with French help – modernized the army along the new French lines, and was now armed with slightly inferior versions of the weapons that the French themselves sported. In short, these were two countries looking for an easy fight, and it seemed as though the Americans would give them one. Now all they needed was a target. It was then that Maximilian noticed Mexico.

After the intervention of 1864, Benito Juarez had remained in power for another eight long years before finally dying of a heart attack. Of course, there was the odd scandal about elections being rigged, and a few Conservative revolts under the auspices of Porfirio Diaz and Jesus Ortega, but all in all the country was rather quiet. [1] When Juarez’ protégé, Sebastian Lerdo de Tejada, ascended to power amid further charges of Liberal vote-buying, Diaz began to plot another rebellion – and with every new election that Lerdo de Tejada rigged, more supporters quietly moved into Diaz’ camp. The straw that broke the camel’s back was a small piece of legislation that Lerdo de Tejada rammed down the Conservative senators’ throats. It was nothing much really, just a bill limiting states’ rights and initiating a fresh centralization process. Naturally, this infuriated many Mexican Conservatives, and in 1881 Diaz swept into Mexico City at the head of 70,000 avowed rebels. Lerdo de Tejada fled for Spain, where he begged his case before a very interested Emperor Maximilian. The decision makers in Madrid contacted their opposite numbers in Paris; the Prince-Imperial, now acting effectively in his father’s stead (Napoleon III was practically on his deathbed as it was), signed the Convention of Toulouse with Maximilian I, providing for French support for Spain in Mexico in return for trade concessions and further favors in East Asia. An expeditionary force was readied under the command of Marshal Francois Achille Bazaine, veteran of campaigns in the first Mexican Intervention, Austria, and Italy, with the Spanish generalissimo Juan Prim as his second in command, in charge of the Spanish contingent. Admiral Hyacinthe Aube was put in charge of the combined fleet, with the Spanish chief of the Havana squadron, Patricio Montojo, his second.

When the fleet set sail in June 1882, Washington was thrown into an uproar. President Custer issued a statement reiterating the Monroe Doctrine and demanding that the French and Spanish back down; Paris and Madrid ignored the protests and went full steam ahead. Angrily, the President issued a final ultimatum: turn around before entering the Strait of Florida or else a state of war would exist between the United States and the two imperialist European Powers. He was shrugged off again, and furiously ordered Rear Admiral John Worden to collect elements of the US Navy from Gulf ports and the Eastern Seaboard and rally them at Key West in a show of force; Aube’s flotilla didn’t even slow down as they passed the Americans. On July 7th, Custer pushed Congress into declaring war. Despite the counsel of the various Civil War veteran admirals to maintain a “fleet in being”, Custer ordered the fleet to engage; reluctantly, Worden complied, and tried to cross the allied fleet’s T off La Fe. Aube complied, and engaged the American fleet; in the Battle of the Yucatan Channel on July 11th, all that was conclusively decided was that the Americans’ tactical advantage had been nullified by sheer numbers and technological superiority on the part of the French and Spanish. Worden lost a few ironclads and withdrew towards New Orleans and Gulfport to restock and refit, and the European fleets plowed on to Veracruz, where Bazaine’s Army of Mexico went ashore with naval fire support.

Custer immediately ordered troops south under General John Chivington to assist Porfirio Diaz in maintaining his hold on power. Chivington, with three army corps, passed through the vast northern Mexican desert relatively unharmed, and linked up with Diaz as the Conservatives fled the capital without a fight. Lerdo de Tejada entered Mexico City at the head of a multinational army and to no small popular accord; Bazaine soon began planning his move north. After some inconclusive maneuvering around Ciudad Valles, the French decided to attack as soon as possible, now that a pro-Conservative rising in Oaxaca was beginning to threaten his rear and the unpacified southern portions of the country began to stir in revolt as well. At the Battle of Las Culebras on October 4th and 5th, the French used their artillery to support a massed frontal attack, using their Liberal Mexican allies as cannon fodder, while keeping the French in reserve and using the Spanish to seize a ridge that overlooked the right flank of the American army. Chivington, despite some inspired tactics, including a cavalry charge that briefly scattered the Mexican human waves, suffered increasingly heavy casualties due to the new French weapons and was forced to withdraw north to Tampico. He hoped to thusly trap Bazaine between the two jaws of his army to the east and Diaz’ forces to the north, and either force the Army of Mexico back onto the capital or west, into the trackless desert near San Luis Potosi. This scheme failed, though; the French quickly thrust northward towards Diaz at Ciudad Mante, forcing the Conservatives further back and dislocating the jaws of the envelopment. Bazaine felt that now the Conservative threat from the south was greatest, and dispatched Prim’s Spanish contingent to guard Mexico City and break up the centers of resistance, the first of which they did admirably. The winter passed uneventfully, with the two armies and the two navies refusing to break camp (or port, as the case may have been), despite the respective wishes of their commanders-in-chief. Chivington, an able commander and veteran of the Civil War and the Indian Wars, had gained a healthy respect for the new French weapons. It probably would have proved a helpful advantage to the otherwise outmatched American forces if Custer hadn’t sacked him on Christmas Eve, replacing him with General Ranald “Bad Hand” Mackenzie. Bazaine, for his part, felt that his previous notions had been confirmed: the Americans couldn’t stand up to superior French firepower and training, and their Mexican allies were equally as feckless.

As the winter ended, the two sides made their respective plans. The Franco-Spanish Army of Mexico would catch the Americans in another battle, wipe them out, and force them to retract their Monroe Doctrine and acknowledge Madrid’s suzerainty over Mexico. In Bazaine’s words, the Army of Mexico would “exterminate the Americans and walk all over General Mackenzie’s contemptible little army” – which was soon made into the American nickname for their Mexican Expeditionary Force, the “Old Contemptibles”. [2] To distract them from this theater and increase Washington’s fear of continuing the war, plans were made to contact former Confederate resistance cells under the overall command of the last of the great jäger commanders, Wade Hampton. They would assist a Spanish landing in Mobile Bay and spread panic and chaos across the South; word was sent to the Plains to organize a (not forthcoming) large-scale Indian revolt. Custer, on the other hand, thought that he had the French and Spanish in a vise, between Diaz in the north, Mackenzie in the northeast, and Jesus Ortega’s rebels in the south and southwest. Reinforcements were shipped into Tampico harbor to boost Mackenzie’s strength; at a speech in Baltimore, Custer declared that “the European invaders will be crushed once and for all by the valiant defenders of freedom!” Privately, though, many American Civil War and Indian Wars veteran officers expressed a distinct distrust of the ease of beating the French and Spanish – who, after all, had just fought one of the biggest wars in the history of the world. All of these preparations were overshadowed by news from Paris: Napoleon III, Emperor of the French, had died, and his son, the Prince-Imperial, ascended to the throne as Napoleon IV to much acclaim.

Bazaine began the campaign with a withdrawal towards Mexico City, allowing Diaz and Mackenzie to triumphantly unite their forces at the former site of the French encampments outside of Ciudad Valles. When questioned on the intelligence of the move, Bazaine replied that this would actually make their job easier, since the Mexicans and Americans would all be in one place – easier to kill them that way. [3] He sent for Prim’s forces and then utilized the French army’s greater mobility (in their lighter artillery, especially the smaller mitrailleuses) to prevent the Americans from engaging them until the Spanish had joined them. On April 9th, near the town of Pitahayas, the united Army of Mexico and its allies, a combined 110,000 men, gave battle to the Americans and their own Conservative allies, who constituted 98,000. Mackenzie decided to attack, using Diaz’ men as the same kind of cannon fodder that the French had tried a few months ago, while using the bulk of his American troops (sans the artillery, which were supposed to support Diaz’ frontal attack) to try a sucker-punch around the enemy left flank. Bazaine, for his part, expected something along those lines, and thus prepared mitrailleuses along his front, which was thinly manned by French troops and dug in, while his Mexicans and Spanish were to launch an attack on the enemy right flank. When the attacks went forward, Diaz’ men were initially repulsed with some ease, so Mackenzie decided to detach a three-division force under General Emory Upton to seize the French trenches. [4] Against nearly impossible odds, Upton’s men, supported by the few Mexicans that survived the first attack against the impregnable French position, managed to secure a foothold inside the trench line and thus force the battle there to degenerate into a bloody hand-to-hand combat, in which no side managed to quickly prevail. On the western flank, the two main bodies clashed in an epic bloodbath that saw vast slaughter on both sides; after two hours of sanguinary combat, the Spanish and what few Liberal Mexicans were left managed to prevail, though the Americans managed to withdraw in a comparatively orderly fashion. Upton and his men were left hanging as the Spanish closed in on their rear, but the epic charge of the 7th Cavalry Regiment – Lt. Col. Marcus Reno’s command – held the door open for Upton to withdraw his battered force as well. Bloodied nearly beyond recognition, the Mexican Expeditionary Force slowly made its way north to Tampico. Bazaine chose not to pursue – after all, there were still some rebels that needed to be pacified. It was then that news came from further north: the Spanish navy, under Montojo, had avoided the American fleet and swept into Mobile Bay, seizing the city and landing a sizable number of marines. The Spanish did a repeat performance at Pensacola a week later, and when Wade Hampton’s troopers managed to burn down a predominantly black suburb of Montgomery the same day, Custer was forced to throw in the towel. Rather than face the shame of abasing himself before the Spanish and French Emperors, he resigned, and Samuel Tilden took his place as President and put a signature to the armistice that became the Treaty of Madrid.

The terms of the treaty were rather simple. The Americans were forced to officially renounce the Monroe Doctrine as national policy, pay Mexico, France, and Spain each a purely nominal indemnity, and recognize the Liberal government of Mexico under Lerdo de Tejada. For his part, the President of Mexico granted significant trade concessions to the Spanish government, and affirmed an alliance with Madrid as well. France seemed to have gotten practically nothing out of the treaty, but aside from the most obvious benefit – field-testing its brand new army and doctrine – international observers and pundits of the time contended that there was a secret clause to the treaty, in which Spain granted Napoleon IV something else in a different sphere. This claim was soon forgotten, and would not be examined again for another few years.

The 1880s in Europe were relatively quiet, if one can say that anything in Europe was quiet at all. Portugal, after a few halfhearted attempts at maintaining order following the destruction of the Great European War, collapsed into renewed civil war in 1884 on the death of Luis I, with the Regenerators (Conservatives) once more set upon by the vengeful Progressives (Liberals). With fairly open support from Spain and no action whatsoever taken by Britain (which was quite busy in the Middle East), the Progressives managed to overwhelm their enemies in three years of brutal, bloody warfare that saw Portugal torn apart by factionalism and artillery. The fall of Lisbon in 1886 was the decisive event that allowed the Progressives to triumph, and when they did they immediately attempted to declare a Republic and forever eliminate the position of king. Maximilian, their benefactor, was fine with all of this, but wanted something in return; a nice juicy colony, perhaps – but Antonio de Serpa Pimentel, the Progressives’ leader, flatly refused, leading to a Spanish military intervention that saw the fall of Portugal in a mere three weeks, with most of that devoted to mop-up operations while Lisbon and Oporto were being besieged. The Progressives were pretty much wiped out, and Maximilian restored the House of Braganza-Wettin to the throne. The young new King, Carlos I, immediately allied with the remnants of the Regenerators and after much negotiation ceded Angola to Spain, which the British and the Germans – more on the Germans and why they have anything to do with this later – recognized, a favor they hadn’t done for the Portuguese. Carlos quickly proceeded to throw several wild parties and generally wallow in luxury, while Maximilian began to use his new colony as a key part in the new Spanish African empire…

Indeed, Africa was becoming a land of interest to a few parties in Europe. Spain, of course, was interested in reclaiming former glory, and saw Africa as an easy route of expansion. The Germans were interested in new colonies as well, despite Otto von Bismarck’s misgivings, as an outlet for trade, manufacture, and sheer boredom. Britain and France held their already-vast colonies in Africa, but were much more interested elsewhere; Portugal, as has already been mentioned, was rather busy tearing itself to shreds. Even by the early 1880s, only the coastlines of the Dark Continent had been colonized; the “new” Great Powers, especially the Germans and Spanish, were interested in claiming their own little slice of prestige and raw materials. Von Bismarck was leery of running smack into conflict over relatively useless (as he saw them) chunks of land, so German colonies grew slowly, but the Spanish had a good deal of room to expand, and troops moved into the defunct Congo Free State, leaderless since the death of the Belgian King Leopold during the Great European War and abandoned by his successor as shareholder, King Philippe I. Brussels was easily persuaded to give up the unprofitable land in exchange for some cash, and Belgium’s short-lived colonial empire died without a sound.

The death of Wilhelm I, Emperor of the Germans, in 1885 had seen the throne pass to his son, Friedrich III; this son, an experienced general (as could be seen during the series of German unification wars in the sixties and seventies, wherein he served as a Prussian army commander and won the great victory of Karlsruhe against the French in the last year of the war) and no slouch diplomatically or domestically, soon began to try to shake the hold of the Chancellor on Germany’s policy. Von Bismarck, in the middle of his somewhat ill-advised “culture war” with the Pope (whose adherents comprised a full half of the German population), was inclined to change his policies at first to allow a more open hand elsewhere, for example working to establish strong ties with Britain – home of the new Emperor’s wife, and the culture with which he identified most (except, of course, Germany), so that he could continue his “struggle” against the Vatican. These ties would pay off in an unexpected form: the lines of good communication, established mostly during the periods of receptive Liberal governments (which, in turn, were mostly under PM Gladstone), led to British sympathy for and eventual action in favor of German colonialism. This was compounded by the heavy losses suffered after the disaster of “Chinese” Gordon’s expedition into the Sudan to reassert British authority; while the British public slowly grew dissatisfied with the inordinate effort expended by Conservative governments to eliminate the Mahdist state, the British politicians were beginning to favor a shift to the Far East as opposed to Africa as an open field on which Britain could develop her already formidable advantage of almost all trade with Qing China and which produced far fewer locales for armed combat. Over the protests of men such as the archcapitalist Cecil Rhodes, the unproductive, partially useless (due to the profitable Suez Canal and the complete British control of the Red Sea), and highly at risk to Boer attacks Cape Colony (and its attendant offshoots in Basutoland, Bechuanaland, and Natal) was signed over to Germany in 1886 by Gladstone’s “new” Liberal government in return for a guarantee on German naval limitations (which von Bismarck was all too ready to grant) and other assorted niceties. However, Africa – aside from some minor colonial expansion, including the extension of Spanish colonies into the Congo basin and German settlements in East Africa, Kamerun, and the Namib coast – soon took a backseat to the lovely goings-on in the Far East.

The Qing Empire in China was recovering from the destructive Taiping Rebellion of a few decades ago, a process slowed by internal rivalries and infighting at the top. The early part of the eighties had been dominated by the end of Dowager Empress Cixi after her untimely death from a mysterious illness in early 1881. The other Dowager Empress, Ci’an, though relatively guileless and bereft of political intrigue, soon replaced her as the “absolute ruler” of China, with Prince-Regent Gong holding the real power. With Gong in charge, the country’s focus began to shift towards an attempt at industrialization. Gong and his ally Li Hongzhang made a real effort at Westernizing the army, especially the Beiyang Army, and it paid off in 1885 when routine French expansion of the Tonkin colony resulted in them getting dangerously close to menacing China’s southern border. When Paris refused to withdraw – they had, after all, signed a treaty with the Emperor of Annam allowing them to extend through the Red River basin – Beijing began to move troops south. Despite the loss of much of the Chinese fleet off Fuzhou, the Beiyang Army performed moderately well against the vastly outnumbered and now outgunned French, who were defeated at the battle of Zhennan Pass as they tried to force their way into Yunnan, and then chased into northern Tonkin and beaten (this time, much more narrowly) at Lang Son. Napoleon IV, worried about the British reaction to any larger-scale French actions against the Qing, decided to allow the Chinese victory, and eventually traded away their stake in Tonkin and Annam – though not Cochin China or Cambodia – to Germany, the prevailing idea here being that the bloody Germans could deal with the Chinese. The remainder of the eighties saw apparent Chinese power go up again as the Beiyang Fleet was reoutfitted and enlarged with British help. Clashes with Japan – France’s Far Eastern ally – soon came over Korea, where both sides were attempting to influence the Korean court, but Li Hongzhang managed to convince the Dowager Empress and Prince Gong of the necessity of coming to terms with the Japanese, who he perceived as a powerful threat which should not yet be attacked – so Japanese influence was recognized in an independent puppet Korea. In addition, Britain, the European nation with the greatest interest in the maintenance of the Qing Dynasty, “advised” the ruling authorities to do their best to make peace with France-allied Japan, and France applied pressure to the Japanese on her end. This last was the manifestation of a new phase in Franco-British relations, which were slowly changing from one of relative hostility to a rapprochement.

The British and French were being pushed into this new understanding in the early 1890s because of the new powers that were rising in Europe and America. Germany, now that Berlin was finally able to tap that vast unused economic potential that had once been locked up in the various member states, was a new colossus of which even the Russians were slightly wary. Japan, partially with French assistance but mostly on its own initiative, was strenuously engaged in turning itself from a semi-feudal society into an industrial colossus on a par with the European Powers. China, with far less effort or success, was attempting the same, and the initial results were beginning to show even in the 1880s. The United States, across the ocean, had been developing incredibly rapidly, showing its latent industrial potential and causing many in London and Paris to reexamine Tocqueville’s famous 1835 prophecy that America would rule in a bipolar world with Russia. Following the military defeat in the war on France and Spain, Democrat President Samuel Tilden lost even his party’s presidential nomination in 1884, when Republican Civil War hero and Representative James Garfield was elected on a platform of revanche and civil service reform. Garfield’s two terms were full of massive shipbuilding and army expansion programs. The Navy especially was pleased, as the recent writings of the head of the Annapolis Naval Academy, one Rear Admiral Alfred T. Mahan, had far-reaching influence with the President in view of the failure of the US fleet to prevent the Spanish landings in Alabama and Florida, however brief, and the contrasting picture of the Civil War, when the Navy had been dominant and thus helped mightily to swing the balance in the favor of the Union. By the time 1892 rolled around, a now-retired Mahan ran for the Republicans as Garfield’s successor and was easily elected, promising further naval expansion and preparations to avenge “the disasters of 1882”. The President’s first moves were towards the Sandwich Islands kingdom of Hawaii, which was rapidly annexed as part of a plan to gain naval bases in the Pacific. In an even more alarming move (to the French, Spanish, and British, anyway), Germany and the Americans began to trade naval officers and army commanders as liaisons, bouncing ideas off each other and assisting with the military reforms in each nation.
 
While the Anglo-American trade was extremely profitable to the men in London, their naval control and economic dominance was beginning to erode, a very bad prospect for any major power, and they needed allies, ones that didn’t hurt British interests as it seemed Germany and America were doing. This was increasingly dangerous in view of the Russo-German near-alliance that had been constantly maintained in the face of possible crises over Hungary and the Balkans; von Bismarck, still the German chancellor, knew that the incontrovertible truth was that Germany was simply not prepared for Drang nach Osten anytime soon, despite Russia’s apparent weaknesses. If you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em, after all, and that is exactly what von Bismarck had in mind in East Asia at the very least. With their new base in Tonkin and Annam, Germany stood in a good position to start influencing Chinese military and economic decisions; a foothold was necessary in order to have any try at expansion at all. Of course, the puny base in north Vietnam was of little help when Britain maintained such close ties with Prince Gong and the Empress Dowager, so Germany needed some kind of ally to help break the British hold on an incredibly profitable region…one that had a good chunk of land nearby from which to base a large army. Naturally, of course, von Bismarck looked north, to St. Petersburg, which had handily just colonized the Amur River basin, just north of Beijing. Russian influence slowly grew in Chinese Manchuria, as German merchants began to trickle into the ports of southern China. It remains to be seen how long this secret alliance could have lasted if von Bismarck had stayed on as Chancellor, but he decided to resign his post due to adverse health conditions and the increasing strain of the job in 1894, and was replaced by Kaiser Friedrich’s man, the Junker-descended industrialist Ernst von Neumann. Von Neumann and the Kaiser, though far more conciliatory towards the British (as opposed to von Bismarck, who sought advantages wherever he could find them), continued the program, seeking concessions at the Qing court. Due to Li Hongzhang’s influence, though, Prince Gong began to reject the German and Russian entreaties and instead modernized his military and carried out minor bureaucratic reforms with the help of the French and British. Tensions began to escalate between the Russo-German limited entente and the Chinese; the Qing continued to prepare for some kind of conflict with the Germans to the south and the Russians to the north, while Germany began to cram large numbers of soldiers into Annam via Haiphong harbor and Russia slowly pushed soldiers east along sections of the unfinished Trans-Siberian Railway. The limited war that resulted when the Chinese attempted to attack Russia’s Ussuri holdings with the Beiyang Army in 1897 was nearly disastrous for the Chinese, as the Russians under the legendary General Skobelev at the Battle of the Dondon River and then switched over to the offensive, driving the broken remnants of the Chinese military back into Manchuria and then sweeping down the banks of the Sungari to Harbin, winning periodic engagements with scattered pieces of the Qing military, before a combination of British pressure and logistical difficulties forced the Russians to halt their advance and open negotiations. Meanwhile to the south, the Germans had started up skirmishes in southern Yunnan, in which they got the best of the small Chinese detachments there, even briefly advancing on Zhanjiang. At the peace talks which led to the Treaty of Amoy, Manchuria north of the Sungari was ceded to the Russians and the Russians’ control of the Ussuri and Amur districts was confirmed, while Germany gained a few concessions in southern China for good measure.

The Treaty of Amoy sent shockwaves through the Qing government; the modernizers had been thoroughly discredited by their new model army’s failure to compete with the European Great Powers; dangerous revolts began to kick off throughout China, led in part by the Revive China Society, led by Sun Yat-sen, who aimed for a Chinese republic to replace the obviously defunct monarchy. Prince Gong’s government was beset from the other side by conservative nobles in the model of the late Dowager Empress Cixi, who blamed the modern innovations and alliance with the British and French for the defeats. 1898 and 1899 were desperate years for the monarchy as Prince Gong and his puppet Dowager Empress called for British and French aid – even the Japanese sent troops to “help”, pushed by their French allies. With great slaughter on royalist and republican sides, the Qing government’s authority was slowly reasserted, though it was obvious that without Anglo-French assistance (in the form of expeditionary forces under Generals Redvers Buller, Alfred-Amédée Dodds, and Oshima Yoshimasa) the Qing would have probably collapsed. As the century ended, the Qing began to undergo yet another military reform, with the new rising star Yuan Shikai in the lead, establishing the New Army in place of the defunct Beiyang Army and relying on Anglo-French doctrine as the basis. Under the façade of reestablished tranquility, though, China seethed with republican sentiment, with Sun Yat-sen still at large and still organizing coups from hideouts in Europe.

As the nineteenth century ended, Europe too began to move away from the relatively tranquil postwar years. Two great power blocs were solidifying: the Russo-German alliance, never made official but nonetheless quite obvious in the wake of the events in China in 1897; and the Franco-Spanish entente, involving old Maximilian I, still hanging on to life, and Emperor Napoleon IV, and Britain, which, though maintaining a veneer of isolation, was moving closer and closer towards the French orbit (or vice versa?), especially as a result of troubles in China and the ongoing Great Game with Russia in Central Asia. America, too, was beginning to pick up steam, as the military reforms of President Mahan began to take effect and the immense American industrial potential started to make itself known. It was now obvious, as the world passed 1900, that a great clash, greater than the Great European War, more terrible than the wars of Napoleon and the Revolution, was in the offing, and the only thing that remained to be seen was how long the inevitable could be delayed.

[1] = Humor. Just in case you didn’t notice.
[2] = I couldn’t resist.
[3] = The larger operational reasoning behind this move has much more to do with the concept that lines of expectation are worth far more than uniting one’s forces; instead of a direct doubling of the allied strength, the Americans actually halved their combat power by preventing an indirect attack upon their enemy.
[4] = Yes, that Emory Upton, for lack of a Spotsylvania Court House.

Hurtling Towards War.

“He is wise who tries everything before arms.”
-Terence, Eunuchus

The early twentieth century was fraught with danger for all nations, especially those that had been admitted to the Great Power club, namely Germany, France, Russia, and Britain, with Spain and the United States not far behind. The first few years of the decade were filled with crises; first the problems between the French and the British over the former’s new alliance with the Japanese (that was quickly resolved in a fashion that was altogether unsettling for the Germans, though they didn’t know exactly why quite yet), then the 1902 Russo-Hungarian tariff war that nearly resulted in another German Drang nach Osten, the Italian crisis of 1904, wherein the Kingdom of the Two Sicilies tried and failed to annex the Marches and almost resulted in another Anglo-French clash, and the increasing, constant problems in Turkish Macedonia, where mass racial killings ordered by the Ankara Meclis regularly went on to the consternation of the Greeks, Bulgarians, and Serbs neighboring those lands. It was clear even to contemporaries that these crises only strengthened, not weakened, the ties between the members of the two great power blocs, as alliances were signed and affirmed with secret or not so secret clauses to resolve difficulties. Kaiser Friedrich III’s last major act before his death was to approve the Russo-German Dual Alliance, signed in 1906 and encapsulated within the Treaty of Bjorko; to the west, the French and Spanish Empires signed their own alliance in 1904 upon the accession of Carlos V Habsburg, adopted son of Maximilian I. Britain and the United States still maintained a semblance of neutrality from the European struggles, although the Americans during the third term of President Mahan and the beginning of Theodore Roosevelt’s [1] tenure were obviously opposed to the British and Spanish especially, as tendrils of Madrid’s influence began to snake through Latin America from Cuba and Mexico and Britain extended influence in Venezuela and built up a large Territorial Army in Canada.

The new Emperor of the Germans, Heinrich I [2], had the unfortunate position of being a naval enthusiast that was also an admirer of Britain. The accession of Edward VII to the British throne certainly hurt Anglo-German relations, but the Kaiser did his utmost to maintain good diplomatic relations with the various nations with whom Germany sometimes had an antagonistic relationship, and in this he was helped by the Chancellor, Ernst von Neumann. He was very well received by the American public during his 1908 visit and was cheered by London crowds following his appearance there the following year. With him to continue the good faith relations that his father had put in place with Whitehall, the Germans and British signed a treaty transferring Helgoland to German sovereignty in exchange for Zanzibar, and a naval understanding – where Germany was allowed to build a fairly large number of ships, slightly over half of the size of the Royal Navy – was also reached. When the Germans in Alsace-Lorraine revolted against French rule in 1911, precipitating the Strassburg crisis, the Kaiser helped to defuse the situation by refusing to aid the rebels (who were duly crushed by Napoleon IV’s army) but allowing Alsatians of German descent to return to Germany at government expense. At the very same time, though, Germany’s economy was exploding, skyrocketing to vast numbers of output, bypassing even Britain in steel production. These new resources went towards the construction of a brand new navy, centered around enormous new battleships called dreadnoughts. At the same time, German and American engineers spearheaded the development of heavier than air powered flight, following the famed First Flight by the Langley-Lilienthal airplane near Washington, DC in 1902. The British and French raced to catch up, with one result being Louis Blériot’s traversal of the English Channel in 1907. Within five years of Blériot’s flight, even the smallest of the European nations possessed an air force of some size, although the general staffs of most nations doubted the effectiveness of most planes outside reconnaissance, preferring the new zeppelins – also developed in Germany – for ground attack missions.

Navies, though, were by far the favored new toys of the new century. The American President Mahan had stirred interest in the Western Hemisphere, and Theodore Roosevelt kept it going, but in Europe, naval technology really took off with the ascension of the sailor-emperors: Heinrich I of Germany, Georgy I of Russia [3], Carlos V of Spain, and Napoleon V of France. The new dreadnought battleships lay at the heart of the new naval developments, as did Mahan’s famous navalist doctrine, which was propounded in his Influence of Sea Power Upon History and adopted as the mantra of admiralties around the world. By 1910, most European countries, as well as the United States, were building dreadnoughts, and the Japanese and Chinese were making every effort to purchase older dreadnoughts from London and Paris. The Spanish navy in particular grew tremendously in size and quality, with Admiral Patricio Montojo y Pasarón spearheading construction in Cadiz and Barcelona. Pressure grew on the two power blocs to test these new wonder weapons, from powered aircraft to dreadnoughts to the new, massive artillery and the rapid-firing machine guns. Proxy wars would do just fine, wouldn’t they? That’s the ticket…

And a war was certainly brewing in the Balkans over Macedonia. The Turkish Republic had reformed successfully from its Ottoman roots, but it remained a Turkish-majority state, inclined to periodically launch pogroms against the Greeks, Bulgarians, Macedonians, Serbs, and Cherkassians within its borders. The new Greek King, Constantine I, and his counterparts Alexander I of Serbia and Boris III of Bulgaria began to prepare for war against the Turks, supplied by Anglo-French weaponry and some of the predreadnoughts of the Royal Navy. The Turks, for their part, received Russian-made weapons, but didn’t really concentrate on their navy to their detriment. President Ismail Enver, feeling his army ready for combat, began major crackdowns on Bulgarians in northern Thrace in April 1913; the Balkan Alliance of Greece, Serbia, Bulgaria, and Montenegro declared war the following month. The resultant Macedonian War was the perfect opportunity for all parties to test the weapons and doctrine of their patrons…at least, it would have been, had not several things gone wrong.

The German military attaché, Colmar von der Goltz, had advocated a plan involving a stand on the defensive, so as to best take advantage of the interior lines the Turks had in Macedonia and to prevent the overwhelming Balkan Alliance numbers from turning the Turks into baklava. Nazim Pasha, Chief of the Turkish General Staff, originally had adopted a plan along these lines, and for the first month and a half of war the Turks sat in their defensive positions and used a combination of machine gun fire and accurate German artillery from the Skoda works to cut down large numbers of advancing Allies. These tactics were especially effective against the human waves that the Bulgarians under Vladimir Vazov, which broke on the fortifications of Adrianople after five separate assaults. Monastir held against Crown Prince George’s attacks from the south, although it was a more tenuous hold than in the north and east. At sea, though, things were much different. The British-trained Greek Navy under Admiral Pavlos Kountouriotis broke apart Ramiz Bey’s flotilla at the Battle of Elli near the Hellespontine entrances, and following this up a large convoy was ambushed and destroyed off Lemnos, preventing Asiatic reinforcements from reaching the Turks and demonstrating Greek naval superiority. Nazim, worried about his ability to maintain a long war in the face of supply and manpower shortages, ordered a counterattack against the Bulgarians up the Maritsa River, taking troops from the defenders of Monastir and Uskub in order to do so. Vazov’s replacement, Radko Dimitriev, skillfully defended Plovdiv in a weeklong battle that was a virtual mirror of Adrianople, and then they themselves switched over to the offensive and overran Essad Pasha’s defenders of Adrianople. At the same time, Radomir Putnik’s Serbs broke into Uskub and the Greeks swarmed into Monastir. Nazim managed to withdraw most of his troops, except for those now trapped in Albania, and prepared to defend the Chatalja Lines in front of Constantinople as the Greeks and Bulgarians approached menacingly. Putnik and George met and shook hands at Prilep, and then turned on Ali Rizah’s Army of Albania, which after a few days of merciless pounding and a renewal of Montenegrin pressure gave up the ghost and surrendered. This was accompanied by news of a Greek landing on Samos by troops under the command of Panagiotis Danglis and the debouchment of an entire corps at Smyrna to nearly no opposition under the command of Prince Alexander. On September 17, the Greek Prime Minister, Eleutherios Venizelos, and the Bulgarian Minister of War, Nikola Ivanov, approached the Ankara government about terms, and after five months of fighting the guns stopped in Thrace and Asia Minor. The resulting Treaty of London, carefully worked up by representatives of the British Government, virtually dismantled the Turkish presence in Europe. Greece made gains in Thrace, seizing a thin strip of Aegean coastline, as well as the Gallipoli peninsula, and was allowed the remaining Aegean islands under Turkish control, plus Smyrna and enough land to make the city defensible; Bulgaria extended her borders in the Rhodopes and to control Adrianople and Thrace up to the Chatalja lines; Serbia occupied the area around Skopje; and a small state of Albania was created, inside of Greek, Serb, and Montenegrin territorial gains. The Turkish Republic nearly fell into civil war, but eventually Enver was forced to step down in favor of a military dictatorship under Ahmed Djemal, who had fortunately been able to avoid blame for any of the Macedonian disasters, with his Minister of War a relatively unknown officer named Mustafa Kemal.

Other than the political results, the Macedonian War eliminated any need for common cause among the states of the Balkan Peninsula. Bulgaria remained in the Anglo-Franco-Spanish orbit, mainly because of dynastic ties [4] and a desire to fight the Greeks, while the Greeks began to shift towards the Germans and Russians, as did the Serbs, whose Hungarian neighbor looked very intimidating as compared with Paris or Madrid. Djemal’s Turkey realigned with Bulgaria, mainly due to a revanchist desire to eliminate Greece (especially Smyrna, which in the years after 1913 began to act as a magnet for Asiatic Greeks) and to reclaim Armenia from the Tsar. As for the weapons testing, the Greeks had seemingly proven the importance of a navy in the modern world, having used it quite effectively first to induce the Turks into a war-losing offensive and then striking at the Anatolian heart of the country to force Ankara to the negotiating table. On the ground, the massively increased firepower had seemed to confirm the power of the defense, what with the Turks’ initial success at repulsing the enemy attacks and then their failure following the rash attack on Plovdiv. In many countries, efforts were redoubled to develop some kind of motorized transport that could shake off machine gun fire but at the same time move quickly enough to negate the defense’s overwhelming superiority. The air forces of the various nations had proved their worth, with the Turkish Air Force providing very useful information to the commanders on the ground, who then expertly shifted their troops to block holes, at least for the first month or so. It was the Serbs who had scored the first air-to-air kill, though, shooting down a Langley Mark V by hitting the Turkish pilot with a revolver. Light machine guns were carried up on Balkan Alliance planes regularly by the end of the war. Conversely, the Turkish zeppelins had played a relatively minor role, outside of a bombing mission in Salonika harbor that went badly awry when two of the five concerned zeppelins collided with the expected combustatory result.

These disturbances in Europe had been alarming the key decision makers in Berlin, St. Petersburg, Paris, London, and Madrid for awhile, but most saw no solution other than limited ones on a crisis-to-crisis basis, with the expected results of threatening mobilizations and dangerous near-war standoffs. In 1909 the German Kaiser proposed an alternative: redirect European energies towards Africa, which (outside of the German Kapkolonie, the Boer Transvaal and Oranje republics, the Spanish Congo, Portuguese East Africa, the various small trade stations in West Africa, and the British-dominated Red Sea) was almost completely open to colonization – and besides, everybody was building all of these navies, why not seize bases for ‘em? The Berlin Congress of the following year finalized the division of Africa. Britain added the unstable Mahdist state – ruled mostly by warlords after the death of Muhammad Ahmed – to its sphere of influence, and picked up land on the Horn, while expanding colonies in Nigeria (such that a strip of territory ran from Lagos across the Sahel to the Sudan and the British Red Sea possessions), the Gold Coast, and Sierra Leone. France enlarged Senegal and Cote d’Ivoire, occupying most of the western Sahel, especially the inland parts, was awarded dominance over the Merina kingdom, and expanded Gabon to the edge of the Spanish Congo. Madrid made out like a bandit, as Angola, the Congo, and Rio de Oro swelled to unprecedented size, and Morocco was placed within the Spanish sphere of influence. Germany’s Kapkolonie was extended to the Zambezi and even beyond, Kamerun and Togoland grew in size, the ruined remnant of the Sultanate of Zanzibar fell (excepting Zanzibar, which was under British control), and the Boer republics became new targets for the men in Berlin. Portuguese East Africa, squeezed between German colonies to the north, south, and west, made only modest gains. Only Ethiopia (and, of course, Liberia, but that doesn’t count outside from a rationale for American attendance at the Congress) was untouched, and even then it too grew in size (perhaps due to an alliance with Britain, aimed at the Mahdists in Sudan, against whom the Ethiopians had already fought successfully), gaining a coastline on the Horn of Africa and expanding slightly at the Mahdists’ expense.

The following decade was occupied mainly by the various European Powers’ attempts to enlarge their little empires. The British sent a two-year expedition under Lord Kitchener from Alexandria down the Nile, thrashing Mahdist armies as it went at the battles of Omdurman (1914) and El Fashar (1915), then cut across Africa and ended up in Lagos in August 1916. Paris kicked off its own war with the Dahomey kingdom, with the obvious ending, and swept the remnants of Tukulor into the dustbin. More French Imperial marines were put ashore on Madagascar, where in the three-year Merina War they slaughtered vast numbers of the natives and established control over the entire island. Of the German conflicts, only the Boer War was of any concern, and even then it didn’t last particularly long. Erich von Falkenhayn’s Afrika Korps arrived in Kapstadt in the fall of 1915 along with a very large number of armaments and ammunition; understandably, the men in Pretoria, led by President Louis Botha, began to arm themselves as well. Von Falkenhayn used this and a few border incidents to start a war in December, and managed to penetrate into the Oranje Vrijstaat before being halted by fierce Boer resistance. The stalemate persisted until April 1916, when Alexander von Kluck’s Zweites Afrika Korps drove south from Neu-Würzburg [5] and crashed across the Limpopo to little resistance. Botha’s men resisted valiantly, but they were no match for the German regulars, accompanied by a few prototypes of a tracked armored box with machine gun ports, not to mention the Mercedes military issue automobiles – mounted with their own machine guns, and much faster than the panzers that stayed with the infantry. Eventually, the Boers took a page out of the Germans’ own book and began to stage jäger style resistance in the rural regions of the republics, but, combated by a series of blockhouses and overwhelming resistance, Botha and his minister of war, Jan Smuts finally agreed to annexation after a year and a half of failed partisan warfare. A year after that, the absorbed Boers were granted quasi-autonomous status within the German Empire.

As the blank pages of the atlas were filled in, the European nations began to tense up again. It was not until 1925 that the last native resistance was truly subdued, but even before then colonial clashes occurred at the edge of the spheres of influence; Germany and Spain nearly went to war over Ovamboland in 1921, especially after Spanish missionaries attempted to get the colonial army stationed in Lubango to attack the Hereros, who were resistant to conversion and raiding across the border at German incitement – the Germans had evicted them from Damaraland only a few years before following threats of racial violence. More Spanish-German disputes involved Katanga, which eventually was traded to Berlin for a slice of Kamerun. Africa was proving to be just as thorny in European possession. Colonialism didn’t stop there, though. Spain finally annexed Mexico outright in 1919 after an incident in Veracruz that nearly led to renewed Conservative-Liberal conflict; Guatemala and Honduras soon followed despite angry words from Washington. The Far East was also a focus of tension, as Qing China – still controlled officially by the elderly Guangxu Emperor, who was an unofficial puppet of the newly powerful Yuan Shikai – repeatedly butted heads with Russia in Manchuria over the ancestral Qing lands that just happened to be under St. Petersburg’s control. Something about losing a war…that’ll do it to you… Japan, too, began to flex her new muscles, as French-supplied ships and weapons backed up the 1922 annexation of Korea and alarmed the Russian Far Eastern Command, which was subsequently built up. Preparations for a global war were underway; the Russo-German Dual Alliance accepted a third equal partner, the United States of America, in 1923, which was matched by the formal entry of the British into the Franco-Spanish entente one year later, to join France’s staunch ally Japan. London brought along the immense influence at the Qing court that had endured for so long, and it was probably only a matter of time before Beijing joined Paris and Madrid outright.

But even as the bourgeois and aristoes began to prepare for their war, another one was being planned by their social inferiors. The precepts of Marxism had fermented in European thought for three quarters of a century; socialism was still on the rise in the minds of the proles. Different nations dealt with the problem in their own way; the British Liberal Party did its best to steal constituents away from the newly formed Labour, with some success, such that the Labour Party, under Ramsay Macdonald, remained marginalized for a while. Paris did its utmost to crush all socialist sentiment, and the Socialist Party was banned from the practically useless Chamber of Deputies; this only intensified the cries for violent revolution in the admittedly undersized proletariat of the Empire. Spanish Marxists were largely kept silent by that nation’s low level of industrialization for a long time, but beginning in the first decade of the twentieth century and continuing later under the leadership of José Díaz, Marxist activists swept the country, in direct opposition to the royalist Liberals in Madrid. In Germany, the monarchy and Reichstag embarked on a program of appeasement, begun by none other than Otto von Bismarck himself, which sought to essentially bribe the proles away from the Sozialdemokraten [6] by introducing better government-mandated conditions for German blue-collar citizens, which, although it weakened the socialist and Marxist movements as a whole in Germany, failed to completely eradicate either, partly due to the continuing influence of rich industrialists and the Junkers, neither of which was very comfortable with anything resembling socialism. Russia, in its turn, responded with the classic carrot and the stick: socialist movements were cracked down upon ruthlessly, involving executions and exile, but amnesties were on occasion awarded, especially for those who recanted. (Russia didn’t have that much of a communist problem at that time, despite the eminent socialists who came thence, Bakunin, Kropotkin, and Plekhanov among them. No, St. Petersburg was more worried about nationalism…) Marxist doctrine did find a foothold in Hungary, where the quasi-feudal landlords still dominated the republic to the detriment of their serflike underlings. Italy was also a Marxist hotbed, especially in the impoverished yet industrialized north, where ultraclerical Catholics clashed repeatedly with the fugitive Benito Mussolini’s communist Black Shirt militias. America had less of a socialist problem; although union-led strikes were often problems and frequently led to loss of life, most of the time the administration could force the unions and the plutocrats concerned to compromise in the name of American solidarity and strength, plus benefits.

The many forces in the world were racing toward a head on collision in the late 1920s; the ensuing colossal clash would drastically alter the course of history in a way that many observers of the time could not have fathomed and most would not have expected.

[1] = Obviously with a slightly different career involving a rapid ascent in Mahan’s naval hierarchy following service in New York as the Republican governor; defeated the much weaker Populist-Democrat coalitions of W. J. Bryan on the strength of the militaristic Republican ticket.
[2] = Our friend Willie died in the eighties of a combination of having a strange form of cancer and being mistreated by the British physician Morell Mackenzie, despite the recommendations to the contrary offered by one Rudolf Virchow…
[3] = The Japanese assassin managed to take down his elder brother after all.
[4] = The Germans didn’t supply Ferdinand I or Alexander; Boris is the son of Manuel of Bulgaria (r. 1879-1904), a minor Andalusian noble.
[5] = OTL Salisbury; modern Harare.
[6] = Our good friends the SPD (Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands/Social Democratic Party of Germany).
 
The World To 1925.

“Ladies! Will you please shut it? Listen to me. Yes, I lied to you. No, I don't love you. Yes, of course it makes you look fat. I've never been to Brussels. It is pronounced ‘egregious’. By the way, no, I've never met Pizarro, but I love his pies. And all of this pales to utter insignificance in the light that my ship is, once again, gone. Savvy?”
-Captain Jack Sparrow

“What the hell? Pirates in 1925?”
-Last words of the panda captain of the Star Destroyer Peremptory

If the world is to be examined in any year before the start of the Global War, 1925 would seem to be the optimum choice. While it does not mark any boundary such as one between terms of office, nor was it one of the years in which the Olympics were held, 1925 may be of note solely due to the death of Heinrich I, Emperor of the Germans, and the accession to the throne of his untried son, Crown Prince Waldemar, who ascended to the Imperial German throne as Wilhelm II. Of course, there were other events that year, but none so overshadowing as this…

The United States of America had undergone a very stormy half century since the defeat of the Second Mexican War. First undergoing a massive military overhaul during President James Garfield’s two terms (1884-92) and then twelve years under Alfred T. Mahan (1892-1904), the United States also passed through a difficult gauntlet of labor problems and farmers’ riots, culminating in the sharply contested election of 1904, when Republican Theodore Roosevelt narrowly defeated the final Populist/Democrat coalition of William Jennings Bryan. Roosevelt’s time in office was marked by an increasing willingness to lock horns with the European Powers, especially Britain and Spain, and America did her utmost to reduce reliance on British trade, with many businesses doing their best to switch to Germany as the primary trading partner. A mark of German partnership with the US was that although it was in America where the first flight took place, German glider expert Otto Lilienthal had done much of the work to assist the first flyer, Samuel Langley, as Langley’s machine probably wouldn’t have flown without some outside input. German doctrine went into the US Army, which received German panzers fresh from the Boer War (and developed its own, called tanks, perversely naming them after the British version) and developed a general staff subordinate to the Secretary of War which had control over all American railroads in wartime – a step that infuriated many, especially J.P. Morgan. (The furor over that subsided after Mahan, the President in question, agreed not to break up Morgan’s northern railroad trust, which was destroyed anyway when Teddy Roosevelt came to power and went on his trust-busting spree.) Russia, too, was a staunch ally, even after an increasing inability to supply the colony ended with American purchase for a fairly exorbitant sum (given that the whole territory was a frozen iceblock) in 1891 and the subsequent discovery of a huge amount of gold on the Alaska/Canada border. This, of course, led to further troubles with the British authorities in Canada, who were further irked that America gave clandestine support to the relatively marginal (but still a nuisance) Quebecois nationalists. Still, British wishes seemed increasingly not to matter, as America surpassed Britain in steel production and America’s navy began to rival even that under London’s control (well, at least in combination with the German High Seas Fleet…). Spain also made the list of America’s enemies, and the two nearly went to war over the Spanish annexation of Mexico in 1919, an action that directly led to Woodrow Wilson’s Democratic government’s loss in the 1920 elections to Massachusetts Governor Calvin Coolidge and his running mate Charles Dawes. Coolidge’s government quietly began a reaugmentation of the United States military, and it was under his administration that the first aircraft carriers were laid down, forming an integral part of the American naval doctrine in addition to the battleships and German style U-boats. Coolidge scrambled this navy in 1922 to protect American interests in Nicaragua, where the Nicaraguan Canal was under construction [1] by a German-American firm created expressly for that purpose; Spain reluctantly consented to an American annexation, and combined with the completion of the Canal in the following year Coolidge was a shoo-in for reelection, taking as his running mate the popular humanitarian and social worker Herbert Hoover and switching Dawes to Secretary of the Treasury, a job better suited for him. The only thing to mar 1925, a year of a continuing bull market and increasing American confidence, was a failed assassination attempt on Coolidge’s life by an anarcho-Communist in Chicago; in its aftermath, Congress passed a law prohibiting Marxist Party [2] members from holding any public office, revealing an inherent American insecurity with and fear of a nearly nonexistent American communism and similar that could continue to haunt Washington in the years to come.

The New World was constantly under the looming threat of imperialism, this time from several quarters: America, Britain, or Spain, with Germany and France more minor players. The Caribbean islands had been divided between the Spanish, French, and British long ago, and London had been in control of British Honduras, Guyana, and Canada since the eighteenth century, but Spain was aggressively expanding her colonial empire and threatening the various Latin American nations with annexation. Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras were conquered by armies from Madrid, and Spanish influence grew in violent Venezuela and civil war-wracked Colombia. After the American seizure of Nicaragua and the completion of the Canal, Costa Rica became the last independent Central American nation, and it seems as though it will stay that way for a while, providing a neutral ground for conflict between American and Spanish agents, the Switzerland of the Americas. The United States is not without influence in the halls of San Jose, though, but again, neither is Madrid… South America at this point is a pastiche of civil war and dictatorship. Brazil, the most powerful of the South American countries, underwent an American-assisted military revolution against the weak Republic in 1923, ousting Artur da Silva Bernardes in favor of Getulio Vargas, whose rhetoric ran towards eliminating the paulista elites and the coffee growing quasi nobles that had dominated the Republic since its inception, and replacing them with a bourgeois-friendly government. Vargas’ military dictatorship is in the process of consolidation, still maintaining the façade of a Republic but in reality ruled absolutely from Rio de Janeiro. Brazil’s southern neighbor, Argentina, has been ruled by a Radical coalition under Hipolito Yrigoyen since 1916, but an undercurrent of discontent runs through the country, and a Conservative military coup is probably imminent. Venezuela, to the north, is under the de jure control of old Cipriano Castro, but German influence abounds, and upon Castro’s death a German takeover is likely in the mold of the Spanish invasion of Mexico. Colombia was torn apart by the Thousand Days War early in the century, but the Spanish imposed a peace in 1902 and since then Madrid has dominated the Bogota government, with only America standing in the way of full annexation.

Great Britain has weathered the quarter of a century since the death of Queen Victoria with skill and fortitude. The Liberals dominated in the early part of the century, as their newest incarnation, led by Henry Campbell-Bannerman, H. H. Asquith, and David Lloyd George passed bill after bill of reforms designed to improve the lot of the populace at large and hit back against the growing Labour influence, which was checked (for now…). The Liberals also found support from the Francophilic King, Albert I [3], who with his skillful diplomacy helped lay the foundation for British entry into the entente a few decades later. Backlash from the reforms eventually culminated with Lloyd George’s massive “People’s Budget” which nearly failed in 1909; in the following elections, the Conservatives under Arthur Balfour gained power. It was under Balfour’s premiership that the British agreed to the Berlin Congress and the division of Africa that followed; Kitchener’s Great Expedition paved the way for even greater numbers of colonists to pour in from London. The Conservatives, who found in Kaiser Heinrich I something of a kindred spirit, did their best to forestall the war that everyone knew was coming in the name of imperial expansion and solidarity, but after Balfour’s fall in 1917 (following his famous State Paper that confirmed his pro-Zionist sentiments in allowing the foundation of a Jewish national home in Palestine) Asquith’s Liberals once again seized power and redirected their energies towards conciliation with the French and Spanish, rearmament, and a resumption of their reform program at home. The Representation of the People Act in 1920 widened the electorate further, although women could not yet vote; Winston Churchill, the energetic First Lord of the Admiralty, was instrumental in laying down the first British aircraft carrier, HMS Victoria. Britain on the whole felt ready for war against the imperious Germans, the uppity Americans, and the menacing Russians, and even with a complete drunkard and fool wearing the Crown in Albert II [4], Prime Minister David Lloyd George could look to the future with something approximating optimism for the survival and expansion of the British Empire.

The French Empire had come close to destruction in the 1870s, and only the allegiance of the military to Napoleon III had saved it; one would never have dreamed such a thing looking at the strong state that stood now. Now on the fifth Emperor of the name Napoleon, the Empire spent the years since the defeat in the Great European War profitably. Napoleon IV’s reign in the last decades of the 1800s saw the creation of a new model army based on the technical innovations of the mitrailleuse and new artillery, and France has carried her enthusiasm for the newest military technology into the twentieth century, being the second country to developed armored vehicles (from a German panzer that broke down in Ovamboland on the Spanish border) and boasting excellent aircraft from the Bleriot company. The French general staff, under Chief Philippe Petain, is near the forefront of military thought, rivaling the institutions in Berlin and Washington. With her impressive military, France was able to defeat the Alsace-Lorraine separatists in 1911 and drive them across the Rhine; this has been seen as a good omen for the future war with Germany, which all know is imminent. Of course, this new military would never have been maintained and expanded if not for the impressive industrialization that has been carried out. The capital that French investors moved overseas has been diverted to other uses, and using this impressive new source of money French railroads were constructed, crisscrossing the country, and infrastructure was greatly improved. The iron and coal of northeastern France has been exploited to the utmost. The autocratic Paris government’s main worries, other than the Germans, involve the truly terrifying specter of class revolt, still not entirely eradicated even after the reprisals of the seventies and even strengthened by the recent industrialization, but even so the Emperor feels confident in his ability to both survive and smash the colossus to the east.

Spain has benefited greatly from the path Maximilian I started down. Spanish political stability and the new colonies abroad – not to mention the handy alliance Madrid and Paris share – have allowed a spurt in industrialization that rivals the work in France. The country has recovered nicely from the civil clashes that dominated the first two-thirds of the nineteenth century, and it is now virtually impossible to find any Carlists anywhere; instead, socialism haunts the factories of Spain, as does a dearth of able-bodied workers and natural resources. Aging Emperor Carlos V has been forced to rely on increasing conscription of natives from his various colonies, especially Mexicans, to fuel his army. The main consolation the Spanish still maintain is their dominance of the Iberian peninsula, with Portugal a tiny shadow of its former self both colonially and at home, and their still vigorous colonial expansion in Asia, Africa, and the Americas.

Germany is just as terrifying as it looks: the colossus ruled from Berlin has enough industrial and economic power to dwarf even mighty Britain. Germany is also far less autocratic than its western neighbors Spain and France; Otto von Bismarck’s quasi absolutist state transformed in the 1890s and 1900s into a vaguely British style constitutional monarchy, mainly due to the influence of Kaiser Friedrich III, who changed the position of Chancellor to an elective position and also added many civilian stumbling blocks on the power of the military, whose General Staff nearly ruled the whole country during von Bismarck’s reign. Having said that, though, Germany has been none the worse for the democratization of the military that Friedrich’s reforms began. Germany is the world leader in tank production and technology, and its Heer – commanded by Chief of the General Staff Hans von Seeckt – is the second largest army in Europe, ranking only behind its eastern neighbor in size. Germany’s High Seas Fleet, though not quite on a par with the Royal Navy, still commands respect and is more than adequate to defend the Helgoland Bight from British intruders. The Navy controls a series of coastal forts located all around the world, from the base at Haiphong in German Annam to the Solomon Islands and eastern New Guinea, to the rich Kapkolonie – where gold was discovered in 1895 [5], fueling the colonization wave that led to the Berlin Congress – and tiny Togoland, across the Atlantic to the base at Maracaibo in Venezuela. The threat to Germany from socialism is far less severe, as they, like the British, have found what amounts to social bribery to be quite effective. The SPD is limited in its influence, and the Junkers and bourgeois that control the Reichstag are relatively secure in their power. With National Liberal Chancellor Gustav Stresemann in charge and Germany’s superiority over the Entente powers growing every day, new Kaiser Wilhelm II can look forward to an auspicious start to his reign.

The enormous Russian Empire, ruled from St. Petersburg, has followed its German ally for most of the last fifty years. Alexander II, the great reforming Tsar, managed to not only free the serfs but also established a representative body – the duma – in St. Petersburg that first advised the Tsar and then actually took over some areas of responsibility in running the State. Alexander II and his son of the same name took great strides in transforming Russia into a less autocratic state than it had been previously. While most Russians still couldn’t have a say in government by any stretch of the imagination, the bourgeoisie had been thrown a very large bone and most of the intelligentsia were happy too. Marxism still found purchase in many parts of the country – especially in the newly industrialized cities, which had enormous factories that employed thousands at a pop – but with few exceptions, it exerted marginal influence. The only time most of the peasants cared was if they ever got hit by famine, and the Tsars generally made provision for that. The Russian army was still enormous, but efforts to introduce modern weapons had met with some success, as independent panzer units were set up and the artillery was on the whole upgraded. The general staff was organized along German lines, though the actual process of streamlining the army is somewhat in the future. Russia’s Navy has received much more attention though. The Black Sea Fleet and the Baltic Fleet have both been massively upgraded under the watch of Admiral Kolchak, and in the Pacific a strong fleet has been based out of Vladivostok and Petropavlovsk under the command of Nikolai Nebogatov. The Russian navy had received particular attention from Tsar Georgy I, who had a naval background and was very interested in the navalist theories of the day. In any event, with the navy to watch the flanks, Russia’s military stood to on several dispersed fronts, from Armenia to Persia and Afghanistan to the Chinese border, ready and waiting for the war that seemed inevitable.

Scandinavia was relatively quiet in the early 1900s. Denmark remained under heavy German influence and did little of note; Finnish nationalists stayed fairly quiet, mainly due to the increased autonomy that had been granted to them under the Tsars. Norway, though initially divergent from the pro-German policies followed by Sweden and the more conservative politics of that country, eventually coming during the conciliatory reign of Oskar III [6], during which Stockholm gave much more notice to Norwegian trade policies and the importance of Norway’s worldwide naval commitments. The 1920s saw Sweden-Norway enter into an understanding with the Allies [7] regarding neutrality, although the Americans did lease Keflavik in Iceland for 100 years, to the consternation of Whitehall.

Italy’s political status persisted through the early 1900s, despite the crisis begun by Naples when it attempted to invade the Marches in 1904. London, though relinquishing its protectorate status in southern Italy, still exerted influence at the court in Naples, and Paris more or less controlled northern Italy via the Pope in Rome. Both of these countries had a relatively hands-off governing style, so into the vacuum marched Marxism, with Benito Mussolini at its head. Mussolini’s Black Shirt terrorist militias roamed across northern Italy, vexing Italian authorities and French army troops alike, and constantly calling for reunification and then a jolly revanche, marching back into Savoy, Nice, the Trentino, Sardinia, and then beyond. The Two Sicilies didn’t have nearly this kind of problem, being backward and relatively weak, but government incompetence frequently lit off revolts in Sicily that were difficult to crush for everyone but the Spanish or British, and the power of the crowned heads in Naples correspondingly shrank.

The Balkans had been transformed by the Macedonian war of 1913; the “unspeakable Turk” had been driven out of Europe (more or less) and now the victors had turned on one another. Greece, ruled by King Constantine and Prime Minister Eleutherios Venizelos, was probably the strongest of the Balkan countries, but only by virtue of its naval power. It and Serbia were aligned with the Allies if only to fight against the Bulgarians, whose army was the terror of the peninsula. The Turkish Republic at this point was mostly a spectator, ruled by a military dictatorship and concerned about the Russians in Armenia and the Greeks in Smyrna. Russian power – in the form of her puppet Wallachia and close ally Hungary – loomed over the northern Balkans, though, and British naval superiority overshadowed the south. This was not to mention the nationalities that had been left out in the cold, for example the weak Albanians, the Kosovars, Bosnians, Macedonians, and all of the Greeks that still were under Bulgarian or Turkish rule…the Balkans were a mess, and most of the nations that lay within their confines looked to war as an expeditious way of solving the problems that most of them had to deal with.

Qing China and Japan were slowly growing more and more powerful. Allies of Britain and France respectively, they provided the muscle in the east that was expected to counterbalance Russia and America, with minimal Anglo-French assistance. But even within these nations, trouble was brewing: Japan, having swallowed Korea, looked hungrily at China for more expansion room, or perhaps the Spanish, French, and British colonies in the Far East instead. Beijing, for its part, was interested in the European colonies to the south, and only the fear of Russia and of British supremacy kept the old Guangxu Emperor in line.

This was not to mention the various other regions of the world where trouble was brewing: Persia, where the weak Tehran government had no power to stop Russian encroachment in the north and that of Britain in the south; India, where Muslims and Hindus began to make common cause against the British under the leadership of Muhammad Ali Jinnah, Mohandas Gandhi, and Jawaharlal Nehru; Indochina, where the French and German yoke was resented by almost all of the natives, who were just waiting for the time to rise up; the Dutch East Indies, where Amsterdam’s power and influence were too weak to defend against any outsiders; Poland, where immigrants from German Posen posed a problem for Russian authorities, who had to deal with renewed Polish nationalism; Hungary, where the Budapest magnates were forced to come to terms with the Slavs all across their territory in the hopes of succeeding where Vienna had failed. Everyone saw the signs: the Triple Alliance and the Triple Entente were racing towards a cataclysmic collision that would permanently alter world history, hurtling towards a future where, no doubt, the citizens of Europe would look upon 1925 with nostalgia and fondness. The wonderful flower of the world was near an end, and nothing would remain the same again…

[1] = Since 1914.
[2] = Replacing the Communist Party, mainly because of the lack of a Paris Commune.
[3] = OTL Edward VII.
[4] = Albert Victor, Duke of Clarence and Avondale, who didn’t die of pneumonia/syphilis/AIDS/whatever, and who apparently also wasn’t responsible for the Jack the Ripper murders either.
[5] = Undoubtedly the British weren’t amused, having sold the “unproductive and useless” Cape Colony to the Germans not long before!
[6] = Who didn’t marry a random Swedish woman, instead marrying into German nobility like the rest of the House of Bernadotte.
[7] = Triple Alliance.
 
Complaints may now commence. ;)

I realize that there are some things that are fairly unlikely, but hey, if das can start a British Revolution in 1770...
 
My only semi-complaint remains that Meade still wasn't that good of a general...just look at his performance at Cold Harbor. Everything else is great, and the Global War will be interesting. It would be fun to start a NES at this exact moment, or right when war is declared.

That way NESers don't have to mess around with the 3 turns of obligatory diplomatic posturing that inevitably accompanies every Industrial Age NES.
 
Dachs, could you please answer one question? Why do I dislike everyone single one of your alternate histories? :p

And what's with the Panda captain of the Star Destroyer Peremptory :p
 
My only semi-complaint remains that Meade still wasn't that good of a general...just look at his performance at Cold Harbor.
It's a little late to complain about that...:p As a counterexample shoring up George Gordon's reputation, I present to you the Second Day at Gettysburg, where his brilliant tactical-level maneuvering - screwed up only by Daniel E. Sickles - saved the day, and thus the war, for the Federals. His solution around Devil's Den wasn't pretty, but it worked. (The outstanding bravery by both sides and the actions of small unit commanders, viz. Joshua "Don't Call Me Lawrence" Chamberlain and William Colvill notwithstanding, of course.)
alex994 said:
Dachs, could you please answer one question? Why do I dislike everyone single one of your alternate histories?

And what's with the Panda captain of the Star Destroyer Peremptory
Beats me. I tried not to cram as much fighting into this update, so as to prevent you from complaining like you did the last few times. China is a lot better off than OTL 1925, as you may have noticed. ;)

And I don't think that the Peremptory's captain's name was ever given in Dark Force Rising, and I always thought that it was really bogus that it was destroyed by crashing a derelict Dreadnought into it. So now it's been defeated by random pirates, the origin of which is unknown. Cheer up, you've got about twenty-five thousand more. :p
 
You can also cite excellent operational command by Hancock during the entire defense of the Union center.
Tch tch - "operational" is incorrect, man! You know that whenever you're fighting a battle, it's tactical, and operational refers to the maneuvering of entire armies in a campaign - so the movements of the two armies on opposite sides of South Mountain and the convergence on Gettysburg is operational command, and there Meade excelled as well, issuing orders practically the moment he was made commander of the Army of the Potomac.

But yousa point is...well seen. ;)

Now it's time to make stats. :( Question: did anyone particularly like the colonial system from DisNES 3? I'm thinking of adapting it for my own nefarious purposes, but if it seems impracticable due to the larger number of players needed (who probably won't send orders, or even join for that matter) or the issue of coordination, or even some other random factor, let me know...
 
I don't know if I liked it, considering how short it was :p

I wouldn't object to it.
 
Everything else is great, and the Global War will be interesting. It would be fun to start a NES at this exact moment, or right when war is declared.

That way NESers don't have to mess around with the 3 turns of obligatory diplomatic posturing that inevitably accompanies every Industrial Age NES.
Maybe NESers shouldn't always boil an industrial setting down to world war then. Particularly as the losers get destroyed more or less utterly and the winners tend to go bankrupt and lose significant amounts of power to their financiers, not that any of this is ever reflected to any capacity whatsoever in games.

Starting in locked alliances is crap in my opinion, particularly as half of all players don't roleplay to any capacity and just clamor for the biggest and baddest country they can get so they can shoot other people up. Plus being shackled to what LightFang calls neophytes can be as bad if not worse than being shackled to a corpse. :p
 
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