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Alternate History Thread IV: The Sequel

Um, why? And the Ottoman "attempt" was nothing more but a lackluster raid that was not followed up in any way. If anything, without Rome there would be less reason for them to attempt anything more.

An important question is when exactly it occurs - and I mean both the century and the decade. The 16th century is particularly different from other possible options. Generally I think that it's going to be a big win for either the outright heretics or the Conciliar movement, or maybe some kind of battle between the two (I'm betting on the latter in general, but in specific cases local heresies might achieve local victories).
 
Also, people have an extraordinary talent for explaining things away. Also, I think the 16th, because there you have Luther (1520). europe wide Protestantism?
 
Well, naturally. The monarchic papists will say that God smote the current Pope for his sins, but this new one they elected is going to make everything okay. The conciliars will say that it is divine punishment for the current Pope and his monarchic supporters who didn't listen to the conciliars. The heretics will say that it is divine punishment for those who didn't agree with them. That much seems more or less obvious. As for Europe-wide Protestantism, that's a possibility, but not such a high one: if anything, once the initial shock is gone, much of the incentive for, say, German princes to even tolerate Luther is going to disappear. And Catholicism certainly isn't going to go away from Spain or most of Italy.
 
Yeah Das, that's what I was imagining. I would think we would see an increase in Protestantism, but the Catholic Church is too well integrated into society in Europe at this point.

EDIT- Just thought about, when exactly were the anti-popes that France sponsored going on, cause that might be an interesting scenario. Oh I guess the Pope in Rome was wrong after all...
 
Really, you think? It existed in england just as long as spain, and they had no problem switching. Yet again, the example of Ireland is very tantalizing.
 
England had a much longer experience with both heresy and Crown vs. Church conflicts than Spain, though. And yet, without a strong papacy, the temptation to make an English Papacy under English protection will be very tempting indeed. The Spanish will probably seek to do the same, though, so you might get another Great Schism in the West situation.
 
So the meteorite will only destroy Rome?

yes. this is a small meteorite, not actualy impacting the ground, but exploding in the air over rome. 2-3 megatons at most.
and the more I think about it, the more

Also, people have an extraordinary talent for explaining things away. Also, I think the 16th, because there you have Luther (1520). europe wide Protestantism?

the more I look at it, the more the 16th century seems the best. I can see two points enact the event then, and one in the 15th century.

Well, naturally. The monarchic papists will say that God smote the current Pope for his sins, but this new one they elected is going to make everything okay. The conciliars will say that it is divine punishment for the current Pope and his monarchic supporters who didn't listen to the conciliars. The heretics will say that it is divine punishment for those who didn't agree with them. That much seems more or less obvious. As for Europe-wide Protestantism, that's a possibility, but not such a high one: if anything, once the initial shock is gone, much of the incentive for, say, German princes to even tolerate Luther is going to disappear. And Catholicism certainly isn't going to go away from Spain or most of Italy.

good points. It's effects are all going down to a matter of timing. I can see three possible points at this time.

the first two are June 16 1520 and January 4 1521. the first would be the day after the Pope issues "Exsurge Domine", the latter the day after the pope issued "Decet Romanum Pontificem". both would enhance Luther's position, as it could easily be interpreted as god being on Luther's side. while this could be spun as the church not being harsh enough on Luther, more likely, it would strengthen his position, and result in more of Europe becoming Protestant, though like you, I can not see all of Europe converting. though in this case, I can not the Protestants being the part that separates, but it's opposite faction that separates, the ones who do not want change. I need to read more about this before I start planing anything along this line though, as I do not yet have enough information to form it solidly.

the third would be sometime between 1450 to 1455. many interesting events here, ranging from papal bull that legitimized the colonial slave trade to the fall of Constantinople. the disruptions it could cause to the age of colonialism, be it temporarily, could be significant and cause some interesting shifts a few decades down the line. It could be twisted to show god approval/disapproval of the fall of Constantinople, spurring the Turks on, or providing incentive for an European nation to make a another crusade to retake Constantinople. I also need to read some more to develop it here.
 
In order to revive discussion, perhaps, or at least highlight something: how about this? Look familiar? The initial alternate history portion (before the AAR itself starts) looks almost disturbingly so, especially in format; that's the part that I would really like to concentrate on. Opinions?
 
Chapter 1 Summary: In 1582, Nobunaga thwarted an attempted assassination attempt. In the following campaigns, he effectively unified Japan by 1589. With Japan unified, Nobunaga turned to inward reforms, such as promotion of Europeanization, as well as external expansion at the expense of China. This external expansion resulted in the declaration of war against Korea in 1591.
Chapter 2 Summary: In 1592 Japan launched its invasion of Korea. The invasion went well overall, capturing the capital of Hanseong and advancing up to the Imjin River. Korean advantages at sea, which were causing Japanese supply problems, were neutralized by the capture of Jeolla Province, where the Korean navy was based. These Japanese successes prompted the Ming to intervene on behalf of Korea at the end of 1542.
Chapter 3 Summary: 1593 saw the arrival of Ming relief forces. At first, both sides underestimated each other, leading to several bloody defeats of both sides. Eventually Nobunaga began seeking a diplomatic solution to the war. His general Hideyoshi, wishing to negotiate from a position of strength conceived of a plan that lead to the capture of the Korean King Seonjo.
Chapter 4 Summary: The capture of King Seonjo caused Korea to fall into a political crisis, which ended with the Western faction seizing control. Thanks to a massive Ming presence, the Japanese were forced to retreat from their Imjin River fortifications, though a massive naval engagement allowed the Japanese to hold on to the important Jeolla Province.




Chapter 5:​

Will a New Day Dawn?

Based on the orders Hideyoshi received from Nobunaga to retreat, the Japanese started to slowly withdraw. From a high of 150,000 men, the numbers slowly dwindled, until only 75,000 men remained. Corresponding with this withdraw was a retreat from previously held defensive positions, the Ming-Korean force following behind. After close to three years of Japanese occupation, the Ming-Korean force liberated the capital Hanseong, and still the Japanese retreated. The Pass of Chungju became the site of another battle as the Japanese rear-guard made a stand where the Ming-Korean numbers would be less effective. The Second Battle of Chungju Pass left the Chinese in control of the battlefield, allowing them access to southern Korea.

While the Japanese were forced to retreat, they did inflict several notable defeats on their enemies. Nabeshima Naoshige defeated a 40,000 strong Korean militia army with 6,000 Japanese soldiers during a night ambush. Meanwhile, Kato Kiyomasa, besieged at Yeongju, continued to hold out against a 60,000 combined Ming-Korean force with 7,000 men. These expensive defeats, combined with the general withdraw of Japanese forces from Korea, convinced the Ming General Li Rusong that a cautious advance was the best course. By the summer of 1595, the front had again stabilized, with almost no notable battles and the Japanese holding on to a string of cities on the southern coast, ranging from Pohang in the north to Yeosu in the south. For all intents and purposes, the war had ended, with both sides unwilling to commit the troops needed to break the stalemate.

The reason the Ming did not wish to commit troops wasn’t because of they were overstretched, nor because they lacked the resources, but because they lacked the will. The Wanli Emperor, who at first vigorously promoted the war in response to what he saw as Japanese hubris, had by this time become ambivalent about the war. Instead, his attention was consumed by his conflicts with his advisors and with non-state diversions. Without Wanli’s support, the Ming army in Korea lacked both oversight and support. Supplies meant for the army were diverted for the profit of local corrupt officials. Meanwhile, with the stabilization of the military front, the Ming general, Li Rusong, began to increasingly interfere in Korean domestic affairs, becoming more concerned with politics then driving the Japanese into the sea.

Japan also had reasons not to commit more troops. Most of the unorganized Korean militia guerillas which plagued Japanese attempts at occupying Korea were led by, or heavily reinforced by, local Buddhist monks. Throughout the war, Christian daimyo and Nobunaga’s Jesuit connections tried to convince Nobunaga that Buddhist monks in Japan itself were also a threat and were in contact with their Korean counterparts. Besides, they argued, Nobunaga himself had been forced to fight Japanese Buddhist monks, specifically the Buddhist warrior monks, or sohei, several times during his efforts to unify Japan, showing that as a group these monks could not be trusted.

While these efforts to drive a wedge between Nobunaga and Buddhist monks failed to move Nobunaga, the situation around the capital became volatile, with often contradictory rumors swirling around. On May 4, 1595, a detachment of Japanese soldiers returning from Korea began preparing for a ceremonial parade in the capital. Rumors, however, stated that their true intent at the capital was to crack down on Buddhist temples in the area. Responding to these rumors, several nearby sohei sects put aside their differences to unite in an attempted coup.

Unsurprisingly, the coup attempt was plagued by poor planning and sectarian actions, and so failed spectacularly. Nobunaga used this coup attempt as an excuse to exterminate the sohei once and for all, and so the returning veterans from the Korean War were put to work in hunting down the last of the sohei. So things might have ended were it not for some Christian daimyo. These Christian daimyo saw the sohei purge as an excuse needed to expand their own domains at the expense of their Buddhist neighbors. The first, and most significant of these mini-religious wars was Korean vetern Konishi Yukinaga’s attack against the lands of his neighbor and military rival Katō Kiyomasa, who was still in Korea. Claiming the presence of ikko-ikki in Kiyomasa’s domain, Konishi invaded Katō’s domain, destroying all Buddhist temples in the realm before withdrawing under political pressure from Nobunaga. The damage had already been done, however, as schisms between Christian and Buddhist, the new samurai class and the old guard, the progressives and the liberals, had only widened in Japan.

By far, however, it was Korea who suffered the most from the war. Politically, Japan still had the old Korean king, King Seonjo, in their captivity. As the war reached a stalemate, they even established a “court-in-exile” for the king in Japan, from which decrees were issued against the “rebellious” Korean court headed by the traitorous Prince Imhae. A second threat against the established Korean court was Prince Gwanghae, the former Crown Prince, who had been stripped of his title by the currently ruling Korean faction and who had fled north, finding refuge with the Manchu.

Internally, the ruling Western faction, controlling their puppet Crown Prince, Imhae, ruled the country under the dual pillars of a pro-Ming and pro-conservative agenda. Immediately following their ascension into power, the Western faction had engaged in purges against their rivals, the Eastern faction members who had escaped capture by the Japanese. These purges however, proved to only temporarily ensure their political dominance. The Western faction’s complete subservience to the Ming army which propped them up proved as distasteful to the ultra-nationalistic Korean militia and guerilla groups as King Seonjo’s complete subservience to his Japanese captors. As the militia groups comprised the bulk of Korean military forces, this proved to hamper military cooperation with the Ming forces.

Korea also found reintegrating its lands south of the Imjin River to be a more difficult task than they had first expected. During their occupation, the Japanese had completely remodeled these territories in order to begin integrating them into Japan proper. When Japan retreated, they either took or destroyed civil records and the bureaucratic system, as well as destroying valuable farmland and supplies. While at first Korean peasantry welcomed their liberators, the presence of Ming troops quickly caused problems. Attempts at punishing collaborators with the Japanese began turning the populous against the Ming, as the army proved uncritical in its acceptance of intelligence, turning it into a tool of personal rather than political revenge. This distaste only grew as Ming forces continued their “liberation” of southern Korea. Ming looting in the area was about on par with previous Japanese looting, making the common peasant see no difference between the liberators and those from which he was liberated.

Not only did the Western faction lose support because of their dependence upon the Ming, but they also lost support because of their policies. Right behind the Ming army marched a Korean army, an army made up of bureaucrats and tax collectors. With their farmlands ravaged, trade disrupted, families displaced, and a large percentage of the workforce either fighting or already casualties of the war, the local communities could not afford the tax burden immediately placed upon them by the government. To make matters worse, what taxes that were collected usually went to corrupt officials in the army and court.

Still, one could argue as 1595 ended, at least there was peace.

A peaceful, calm pond
Concealing rushing waters
Peaceful no longer


-Anon., A.D. 1596​
 
PoD: For some reason, the legions of Britannia are not recalled back to the Continent. Britain thus remains standing while the Western Roman Empire falls, and becomes one of the two chief cultural inheritors, along with the Eastern Empire.
 
Excellent TL, Strategos, though I, with my horrendously inadequate knowledge of east Asian history at this juncture, am unsure as to the ultimate goal of the TL. Unless it has something to do with the Manchu.
PoD: For some reason, the legions of Britannia are not recalled back to the Continent. Britain thus remains standing while the Western Roman Empire falls, and becomes one of the two chief cultural inheritors, along with the Eastern Empire.
Expansion on PoD: this would require the lack of a revolt of 'Constantinus III', which can easily be finagled (just have him assassinated early on). Now, the Roman troops would still be called onto the Continent soon anyway, because Britannia had one of the largest mobile forces (comitatenses) remaining in the Western Empire and thus was one of the only forces capable of easily withstanding the major Rhenish incursion that occurred around the same time. With those mobile forces, Stilicho stands a good chance of repelling the attacks of the Vandals, Alans et al. That was a major contributor to the downfall of the Western Empire itself (what with the Vandal seizure of North Africa providing the major economic catalyst for the collapse of the West)...though in the end, despite the retention of North Africa, the mounting pressure, beginning with the Burgundii incursion of the 430s and continuing with the eventual arrival of the Huns...and then when the Hunnic Empire collapses, a huge-scale barbarian flood...I don't think that the Western Empire will survive in its full state, obviously enough, but there is a high probability that with the North African revenues it can retain Italy as well, and maybe Dalmatia. (Pannonia and of course Gaul are lost causes. I'm not sure about Hispania and frankly it depends on how the Hunnic Empire's implosion happens.)

A surviving form of the Roman Empire of the West might not last beyond the Lombard and Avar incursions of the sixth century, but it would have an interesting development on the Church, in that the power of the Pope would be extremely weakened by the continuing existence of a temporal power. The Acacian schism might not happen at all (or if so it would do so in a greatly diminished fashion), if the Western emperor is sufficiently threatened by barbarians to require assistance from the Eastern Empire and is willing to iron over religious controversy to get it.

As to the mechanics of the survival of Roman Britannia, that also has a great deal to do with how the Angles, Jutes, and Saxons acquire a foothold. Plotinus is the closest person I know of that is an authority on this period; asking him would be a fantastic idea for the religious, social, and political consequences of a lack of Constantinus III. He also could probably figure out a PoD that would work better than mine. :p In addition, there is a Paradox AAR, The Eagles of Avalon, which deals with this in a highly unorthodox and somewhat unlikely fashion.
 
that also has a great deal to do with how the Angles, Jutes, and Saxons acquire a foothold.

Even if the eastern parts are lost, a Britannian civilisation might very well survive in Wales and OTL western England. In fact, the Anglo-Saxons might very well enjoy something distantly similar to the OTL fate of the Bulgars in the Balkans (though with different ethnic dynamics, ofcourse).
 
You know, I'm a huge fan of The Eagles of Avalon :D

I'm the alex994
 
You don't say. :p I recall you commenting on some AARs in the Victoria section as well.
 
Even if the eastern parts are lost, a Britannian civilisation might very well survive in Wales and OTL western England. In fact, the Anglo-Saxons might very well enjoy something distantly similar to the OTL fate of the Bulgars in the Balkans (though with different ethnic dynamics, ofcourse).
Personally I find that very boring as compared to the alternative of Romanesque civilization repelling the Nordic invaders and going on to stamp out resistance in Scotland and, later, Ireland.
 
I was referring in part to the exploits of Basil II the Aptly-Named.
 
Subtlety does not mix well with history. :p See, if you'd just said Basil II the Bulgar-Slayer...

But anyway, Wales does not make a good base for anything. The public works are destroyed, Londinium is lost, etc., and you wind up with a Roman crust on the same old Anglo-Saxon pie, not much different from a Celtic or Norman one in principle. It is much more interesting if you simply keep the original material, methinks.
 
If you want an independent and united sub-Roman Britain, I think your best bet is probably preserving the Britannic Empire somehow. As long as Britain remains part of the Empire, its defense will be of secondary importance to Rome, and any military governor who unites the forces of the province and and can defy Rome's orders is just going to cross the Channel with those forces as soon as he can. Without a tyrant the province will fall into tribal kingdoms almost immediately, as it did in OTL.

das said:
Even if the eastern parts are lost, a Britannian civilisation might very well survive in Wales and OTL western England.
Which would be different from OTL how, exactly? :p
 
It would be more Roman. :p I suppose it would be more united and organised, and would inherit Roman military traditions to a greater extent.
 
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