Because We Have a Problem: 2016 Forcasting List

I apologize, I didn't realize it was in New Jersey only...

I was about to remark that the sample size seems really small for such a poll, but now I understand.

I'm actually not too surprised that Christie didn't poll higher. There's always the conservatives that idolize over a particular candidate, and the other possibilities in the poll seem to fulfill that idea.

It's all good, I think I misinterpreted what your thoughts on the poll were when I responded.

I think Christie will have a tough time navigating the primaries--I saw a map awhile back that put Paul in a pretty good position to lead in Iowa and New Hampshire (and Kentucky), but Rubio was winning Florida, Louisiana, Texas, and a few other states. They are the heavyweights right now. Christie was only leading in Pennsylvania and New Jersey, and losing ground in both.
 
It's all good, I think I misinterpreted what your thoughts on the poll were when I responded.

I think Christie will have a tough time navigating the primaries--I saw a map awhile back that put Paul in a pretty good position to lead in Iowa and New Hampshire (and Kentucky), but Rubio was winning Florida, Louisiana, Texas, and a few other states. They are the heavyweights right now. Christie was only leading in Pennsylvania and New Jersey, and losing ground in both.

It's a shame, really. Christie's probably the best guy for the GOP to run -- he has a darn good shot of winning overall, considering he's not viewed as a crazy conservative. I do agree he's got a tough shot in the primaries -- the hurricane incident makes for too easy ammunition against him.

Rand Paul intrigues me in that I think he could do get some momentum heading in. Who knows how he'd do in the general election -- but I feel like he has his principles, and as long as you're campaigning on your principles you've got little chance of gaffing in those regards.
 
By the way, because I didn't see this posted before, Sabato's Crystal Ball posted their ideas for likely 2016 candidates.

The Democratic list isn't too surprising, but you might be surprised as to who is at the top of their Republican list. (Scroll down about halfway through to see a chart of their ideas).

(I would have copied their list into this thread, but it's not a picture and the way it's formatted would make it difficult to copy over).
 
It's a shame, really. Christie's probably the best guy for the GOP to run -- he has a darn good shot of winning overall, considering he's not viewed as a crazy conservative. I do agree he's got a tough shot in the primaries -- the hurricane incident makes for too easy ammunition against him.

Rand Paul intrigues me in that I think he could do get some momentum heading in. Who knows how he'd do in the general election -- but I feel like he has his principles, and as long as you're campaigning on your principles you've got little chance of gaffing in those regards.

Of all the candidates that are being polled on right now, I think only Christie has the chance to really expand the Republican map in Pennsylvania and New Jersey, maybe New Hampshire and Maine's lone district. That's no guarantee he would win these states, but he'd at least put them into serious play. No unskewedpolls wishful-thinking play, but actual, serious play.

The rest of the guys like Rubio, Paul, Ryan, Jindal, and the like, they would all be trying to recreate G. W. Bush's map. Rubio probably has the best shot at that if he can actually split the Hispanic vote like Bush did (about +10D or less).
 
I don't think it's impossible for anyone besides Clinton or Biden to pick up steam, but Biden looks more beatable than Clinton. Are you saying you think they both run or neither of them runs?
I personally do not think either Clinton or Biden run. I suspect fatigue and age will keep Clinton back, and a lack of strong momentum from the Obama administration, age and lack of donor support would hamper Biden.

I agree, it isn't impossible for a 3rd person to rise up if those two are in the game, but who? Both Cuomo and O'Malley are very close to the Clintons, and would be fighting for the same money and consultants. Hickenlooper?

Of all the candidates that are being polled on right now, I think only Christie has the chance to really expand the Republican map in Pennsylvania and New Jersey, maybe New Hampshire and Maine's lone district. That's no guarantee he would win these states, but he'd at least put them into serious play. No unskewedpolls wishful-thinking play, but actual, serious play.

Yeah, that's true too. I wonder if Scott Walker would put Wisconsin in play. The GOP gave everything it possibly had towards winning Wisconsin in 2012 and came up short.

The fact that PA probably has the most, or second most, vulnerable GOP Gov probably doesn't help their local brand.
 
I don't agree with the spending, the invasion of Grenada, or the drug war, but he was good on pretty much everything else.

But he cut taxes and I think that he wouldn't have continued the high defense spending if he was President after the Cold War ended.

Reagan's economic performance was far below average. And when you subtract out replaying all the debt he ran up, and the interest on it, then he falls deeply into negative economic territory.
 
It's a shame, really. Christie's probably the best guy for the GOP to run -- he has a darn good shot of winning overall, considering he's not viewed as a crazy conservative. I do agree he's got a tough shot in the primaries -- the hurricane incident makes for too easy ammunition against him.
You mean when he tried to coordinate relief efforts with Obama and didn't politicize a matter of life and death for his constituents? Maybe there was another incident or I really don't get conseratives at all, but I'm not sure how he doesn't look like the good guy there.
 
You mean when he tried to coordinate relief efforts with Obama and didn't politicize a matter of life and death for his constituents? Maybe there was another incident or I really don't get conseratives at all, but I'm not sure how he doesn't look like the good guy there.

:lol: You gotta remember who votes in the primaries. Although I will admit he did do a lot of praising of Obama during the incident.
 
It's a shame, really. Christie's probably the best guy for the GOP to run -- he has a darn good shot of winning overall, considering he's not viewed as a crazy conservative. I do agree he's got a tough shot in the primaries -- the hurricane incident makes for too easy ammunition against him.

Rand Paul intrigues me in that I think he could do get some momentum heading in. Who knows how he'd do in the general election -- but I feel like he has his principles, and as long as you're campaigning on your principles you've got little chance of gaffing in those regards.

I still have a hard time telling for sure whether Rand Paul's principles are actually the same as what he's saying openly, or whether he really thinks closer to like his father does but actually wants to get into office. I know he did retreat on the CRA issue, which was politically smart, but the liberal media is still going to hammer him for it. Rand Paul is, of course, smarter than they are. I just hope people are willing to listen for more than soundbites. Otherwise, Rand is screwed.

Reagan's economic performance was far below average. And when you subtract out replaying all the debt he ran up, and the interest on it, then he falls deeply into negative economic territory.

Reagan did indeed suck, but he doesn't suck to nearly the same degree as the guys that you like:p

:lol: You gotta remember who votes in the primaries. Although I will admit he did do a lot of praising of Obama during the incident.


Of all the things about Christie, this is the LEAST of the things that bothers me about him. Granted, you all know I hate the political system and think almost everyone in it is despicable to the point that I wouldn't even want to be associated with them. That said, you can't think that way when you're a politician. And while I disagree with FEMA itself on principle, it exists and of course Christie is going to work with Obama when it comes to getting through the disaster. I'd be more worried about his views on gun control and things of that nature...
Yeah, that Reagan guy actually sat down and negotiated an arms control treaty with an evil empire!!!

And good for him. Although he should never have tried to provoke them by calling them that, even if it was true (That phrase would work for the USA these days...)
I don't agree with the spending, the invasion of Grenada, or the drug war, but he was good on pretty much everything else.

But he cut taxes and I think that he wouldn't have continued the high defense spending if he was President after the Cold War ended.

And he raised taxes on some. Granted, I'll give him credit for the huge cuts on the most successful, but he also raised taxes on the lowest bracket from 11-15% and destroyed deductions.

As I said, look to Coolidge for a real conservative. He wasn't perfect either but at least he did more good things than bad. Can't say that about anybody since.
He cut taxes taxes once and raised them 7 times. Even in the year he cut taxes, he did away with many deductions that made the tax cuts a net tax harm to small businesses.

Yeah, Reagan isn't as much of a conservative hero as they think...
 
Rand being against the Civil Rights Act is smart?

He retreated from his opposition on property rights grounds, and claimed (Falsely, it was a lie) that he had always supported the bill. That was politically the smart thing to do, even though he's completely wrong ethically speaking.
 
So he's a liebertarian now?

He's a politician. And not really all that libertarian either, although hugely so compared to everyone else running in either party/

And yeah, he pretty much did lie. I don't blame him considering the situation. I wish he had stuck to his guns but he would never have had a chance if he did. Its political strategy.

I seriously doubt Rand Paul's map would be a carbon copy of George W. Bush's. The two men have NOTHING in common other than the (R) next to their names.
 
"Some people wear Superman pajamas. Well, Superman wears Chuck Norris pajamas. And Chuck Norris wears Jim DeMint pajamas."
—

Sen. Ted Cruz
 
I think he was born in Canada and so inelligible. I also think he's a firebrand dumbass who couldn't survive politically outside of TX.
 
Well, his mother was a US citizen, so I believe that the law defines him as a Natural Born Citizen despite being born abroad.
 
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