I'm hoping Ted "Carnival" Cruz runs so we can be entertained.
Because We Have a Problem: 2016 Forcasting List
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duckstab
Child of Noble Family
You haven't trademarked that nickname for him, have you? Because I want it on a bumper sticker.
However, he can't run for President since he was born in Canada. (I think his parents were both US citizens, but they were working up there at the time.)
_random_
Jewel Runner
John McCain was born in Panama.
madviking
north american scum
He was born in Panama*.
* Panama Canal Zone which was technically US property at the time.
* Panama Canal Zone which was technically US property at the time.
Until he produces a long form Canadian birth certificate, it is assumed that Cruz was born in Texas.
I'd wait until I saw the opposition.
Mark Warner's biggest problem might be Tim Kaine--he was on the VP shortlist in 2008, and his name was floated last year as a potential 2016 runner if he won his Senate race (otherwise, his career would basically be over). Lo and behold he's a Senator. They will both be pulling from the same local donors and political operatives, so basically they trip over each other or only one of them runs.
Both have experience in three statewide elections (which I think is the best training you can have for running a national campaign--house districts are just too small to be comparable unless you are talking about one of the at-large seats, and even then it's going to be a small state). I don't know enough about their politics to know which one might have better chances on the national stage.
Obviously, we are using different definitions here. However, I think we are in agreement Santorum's base was largely the Christian right, and Huckabee had the same base back in the 2008 primaries.
Frankly, I think Huckabee would have had a better shot at taking the White House than Romney. He was really popular in the South and might stimulate enough turnout to hold losses or even win back places like Virginia and Florida. I think he would have done better than Romney in the debates and that could have swayed states in the Midwest like Ohio and Iowa too. If I were a Republican strategist, I'd be calling him right now to draft him for 2016, but I don't know if he's gone so far to the celebrity life that he won't want to run for office.
Well... depends on whether you count the popular vote or the delegates. His operation was quite effective in securing second-place delegates from caucus states and even from states where the plurality went to Romney or Santorum.
I think he's been keeping a lower profile than the other possible Democratic contenders. He's not even listed on the wiki page of possible candidates, which leads me to believe he hasn't expressed any interest in running for the presidency.
madviking
north american scum
I'd wait until I saw the opposition.
Mark Warner's biggest problem might be Tim Kaine--he was on the VP shortlist in 2008, and his name was floated last year as a potential 2016 runner if he won his Senate race (otherwise, his career would basically be over). Lo and behold he's a Senator. They will both be pulling from the same local donors and political operatives, so basically they trip over each other or only one of them runs.
Both have experience in three statewide elections (which I think is the best training you can have for running a national campaign--house districts are just too small to be comparable unless you are talking about one of the at-large seats, and even then it's going to be a small state). I don't know enough about their politics to know which one might have better chances on the national stage.
Yea, but the thing is that Kaine just won his seat so I figure he might want to run as of yet. Warner, on the other hand would be up for election in '14. Just saying.
In addition, there's always that revolving door at Virginia governor. Warner or Kaine could decide that they would rather be the gov'na than the president.
duckstab
Child of Noble Family
There's some debate about whether McCain qualifies as a "natural-born citizen". Most scholars are of the opinion that he does, but there was at least one lawsuit that attempted to keep him off the ballot on those grounds.
Pretty sure they said the same thing about B-Rocks "Who's Sane?" O-bomb-ya.
So Warner doesn't run again in 2014, and goes into full-time national election mode in 2015 for his 2016 bid? That's a possibility, especially with the amount of organization-building and fund-raising required for a modern election.
I found it funny they have both been governors of Virginia, as well as Bob McDonnell, who, until the ultrasound thing, was heavily considered for the Republican presidential ticket. There is a possibility the next election is Virginian v. Virginian.
madviking
north american scum
Pretty sure they said the same thing about B-Rocks "Who's Sane?" O-bomb-ya.
So Warner doesn't run again in 2014, and goes into full-time national election mode in 2015 for his 2016 bid? That's a possibility, especially with the amount of organization-building and fund-raising required for a modern election.
I found it funny they have both been governors of Virginia, as well as Bob McDonnell, who, until the ultrasound thing, was heavily considered for the Republican presidential ticket. There is a possibility the next election is Virginian v. Virginian.
I think it would be unlikely if Bob ran. I don't dislike him that much (okay, yea, the ultrasound thing and the fact THAT HE STILL HASN'T GOTTEN RID OF STATE LIQUOR STORES--but I digress). I just don't think he has the kind of skills to want to become president nor the ambition.
He's not really positioned well now to be a Republican frontrunner. Not nearly as well as Rubio, Christie, or Jeb Bush. I think Huntsman and Huckabee should give it another go myself, although my politically-inclined lab mates seem to think they are both finished.
EDIT: I should also post that I think Ayotte and Pence are decent dark horse candidates if they choose to run. I would have added Portman to this list before the recent news cycle, now I don't know.
madviking
north american scum
Yea, that's pretty much my feeling at this point too about Bob.
Tahuti
Writing Deity
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US Property? I hope there aren't any children born in CIA detention camps in Eastern Europe then.
IdiotsOpposite
Boom, headshot.
Indeed. And if any Republican wants to come up with the explanation of "but one of his parents was a US Citizen, so he can get in just fine!" I will remind them of the FIVE YEARS they spent attempting to deny the same right to a Democrat, and then kindly and gently tell them to shut up.
Well then Obama should have picked a real USA #1 state to be from like Texas, and not that sissy state Hawaii. Seriously, they should all jump off their islands and push them closer to be part of the club.
Zack
99% hot gas
Are we completely sure he was born in Hawaii?
Indeed.... oh, wait. No, I think every damned post I made on that subject acknowledged that and mocked the birthers.
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