Brexit Thread V - The Final Countdown?!?

[Hrothbern]

No-Deal is a beginning, not a resolution.

I think many people favoring no-deal do not realise that

Combined with the economic shock it would remove the political oxygen to get anything non-brexit done for at least one further electoral cycle.

I think that will not be that much of an issue for the Tories.

Conservatives do tend to govern in general by neglect, wrapping that up as pragmatic.
Launch now and then some more visionary plans, to show you think ahead, but with lots of fluff. Like global Britain, like the NHS visit of May yesterday. Especially around topics where you want to disguise cuts.
Petty stuff, scandals on governing and politicians level. The culture of making people accountable, replace them, disguise the structural effects.
Some uproar now and then from the opposition on something a-social welcome to spin in political profiling and enemy thinking.
Good old boys governing runs never out of breath, except for the efforts in career infighting. Many political topics subservant to that career infighting as well. The no-deal fall-out the convenient topic for that the coming years.

And considering that the likelyhood for a succesful snap election for Labour is diminishing (will a May vote defeat or a no-deal change that ?), I think the Tories will be in charge after March 29.

 

[EnglishEdward]

Meanwhile UK parliamentarians are busy trying to sabotage the UK's preparations (if there are any?) for no deal:

Brexit: MPs try to limit government's no-deal financial powers

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46789565

 

[really]

How can it be described as sabotage?
They are the legislators. Their decisions are the law.

 

[Kyriakos]

How can it be described as sabotage?
They are the legislators. Their decisions are the law.

But this may threaten the pizza ferry.

 

[EnglishEdward]

You are clearly much more respectful of legislators than many of us in the UK.
Well that may be very fair, they gave you in the RoI referenda before joining EEC/EU.

Following the UK Referendum, the UK Parliament voted to Leave, and it knew very well that
if no deal could be agreed, the default was that the UK would leave without a deal.

They lack the nerve to contradict the Referendum result head on and change the outcome,
so instead try to undermine the government in the practicalities of dealing with the outcome.

 

[Kyriakos]

It'll be the climax, I'd say. After some months or years you should at least be sure that your flights will be there, and that importation of food and medicines is established in a working fashion.

I dont think there is any chance of flights not being sorted soon. Remember (among many other things)how many eu students are in the uk.
Speaking of eu students, will the 2020 fees (for new students) be as with non eu ones? Cause those are very larger.

 

[Manfred Belheim]

The link you referenced ... refers to Labour members, not Labour voters.

Yeah I was going to say. If you look at a map of the biggest Leave areas and compare it to a map of traditional Labour voting areas, you'll see why that is hard to believe. Labour members and Labour voters are very, very different groups of people.

 

[Kyriakos]

Yeah I was going to say. If you look at a map of the biggest Leave areas and compare it to a map of traditional Labour voting areas, you'll see why that is hard to believe. Labour members and Labour voters are very, very different groups of people.

Iirc the non london labour voters are mostly leavers (?)

 

[EnglishEdward]

But this may threaten the pizza ferry.

We live in the age of specialisation and of outsourcing specialised work to specialists.

Neither ferry operators nor pizza bakers specialise in web sites; so they typically outsource the
design of the website to a small local company who host it on one of big players' resilient platforms.

The web front company won't develope a web site from scratch for every new customer because
that is not cost effective and takes too long. Instead it typically takes the code and literals it used for the
site of one of its last customers, copies that and amends it for the new customer. Someone has either
overlooked text to be replaced or uploaded the wrong files. This happens all the time in rush jobs.

What these MPs are trying to do is undermine contingency, which I regard as legislative sabotage.

Speaking of eu students, will the 2020 fees (for new students) be as with non eu ones? Cause those are very larger.

At the moment, university vice-chancellors seem to be entirely driven by the desire to
maximise revenues; i.e seek highest yz where y = number students, z = charge per student.

However the student loan bubble is about to crash badly, so UK universities may suddenly
become more competitive. In the meantime I would guess that if they can charge the one child
chinese parents more, they will try that on EU students in the first instance, which won't work.

 

[really]

We live in the age of specialisation and of outsourcing specialised work to specialists.

Neither ferry operators nor pizza bakers specialise in web sites; so they typically outsource the
design of the website to a small local company who host it on one of big players' resilient platforms.

The web front company won't develope a web site from scratch for every new customer because
that is not cost effective and takes too long. Instead it typically takes the code and literals it used for the
site of one of its last customers, copies that and amends it for the new customer. Someone has either
overlooked text to be replaced or uploaded the wrong files. This happens all the time in rush jobs.

What these MPs are trying to do is undermine contingency, which I regard as legislative sabotage.

It is true that companies contract out these things. Competent ones applying for very high profile public contracts should catch these mistakes though. A firm intending to launch ferries should have ts and cs sorted to be able to hand to the developer.
An IT company should have testing, quality control, reviews before release.
It is a symptom of the amateur nature of the whole enterprise.

You are clearly much more respectful of legislators than many of us in the UK.
Well that may be very fair, they gave you in the RoI referenda before joining EEC/EU.

Following the UK Referendum, the UK Parliament voted to Leave, and it knew very well that
if no deal could be agreed, the default was that the UK would leave without a deal.

They lack the nerve to contradict the Referendum result head on and change the outcome,
so instead try to undermine the government in the practicalities of dealing with the outcome.

Living in a modern democracy has its advantages. Article 50 was delivered - the result of the referendum has been satisfied.
Anything subsequent is the legislative process flowing from that. No budgetary process can be inferred from the ballot paper options of Remain or Leave.

I dont think there is any chance of flights not being sorted soon. Remember (among many other things)how many eu students are in the uk.
Speaking of eu students, will the 2020 fees (for new students) be as with non eu ones? Cause those are very larger.

The EU has published some interim unilateral measures to avoid some disruption in for E.g. flights for the first year or so in the case of a no deal crash out. They aren't comprehensive or unlimited but they will sort some immediate problems.
Many seem particularly useful to Ireland's position.

 

[EnglishEdward]

It is true that companies contract out these things. Competent ones applying for very high profile public contracts should catch these mistakes though. A firm intending to launch ferries should have ts and cs sorted to be able to hand to the developer.
An IT company should have testing, quality control, reviews before release.
It is a symptom of the amateur nature of the whole enterprise.

When I worked in procurement, I never believed in awarding non marketing contracts on the basis of marketing material.

The lack of actual ferries seems more of an issue. I suspect that the ferries are all foreign owned and that the RoI beat
the UK to the draw in taking up options for any unused ferry capacity hanging around NE europe and that UK company was
only included because the UK politicians feared criticism if all the enabling contracts were awarded to foreign companies.

Perhaps the UK universities should add cross channel swimming to the undergraduate curriculum for EU students.

 

[Arakhor]

They lack the nerve to contradict the Referendum result head on and change the outcome, so instead try to undermine the government in the practicalities of dealing with the outcome.

Given that the Government has been trying to undermine Parliament at every turn, I'm surprised that it took this long. The Government is not sovereign; Parliament is.

 

[Silurian]

When I worked in procurement, I never believed in awarding non marketing contracts on the basis of marketing material.

The lack of actual ferries seems more of an issue. I suspect that the ferries are all foreign owned and that the RoI beat
the UK to the draw in taking up options for any unused ferry capacity hanging around NE europe and that UK company was
only included because the UK politicians feared criticism if all the enabling contracts were awarded to foreign companies.

Perhaps the UK universities should add cross channel swimming to the undergraduate curriculum for EU students.

Brexit does have a slight political dimension. The government should regard all marketing material produced by major suppliers of services as a possible political problem, as has been proven in this case. What does seem strange is that the supplier did not change the terms to "we need to decide what to put here", which I have use in draft documents and why the no ferry company did not look at their own website.

The ferry berth at Ramsgate is smaller than Dover so fewer ferries can fit into the berth. Some of those ferries are actually used at Dover so could sail up to Ramsgate if Dover was congested. Then the government would have just had to pay the local council, who own the harbour, to dredge it repair the fences etc.

 

[EnglishEdward]

..government should regard all marketing material produced by major suppliers of services as a possible .....

Mountain out of molehill.

Micromanaging suppliers never worked.

 

[really]

The lack of actual ferries seems more of an issue. I suspect that the ferries are all foreign owned and that the RoI beat
the UK to the draw in taking up options for

yes and no.
Various companies have been adding capacity with new direct routes to Belgium and the Netherlands :
'It can accommodate more than 600 lorries and is almost twice the size of any ferry currently operating out of Dublin Port. If all the parking lanes on the 235m long boat were laid end to end, it would stretch to almost 8 kilometres, making it the world’s largest short sea roll-on roll-off vessel.'
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ire...ing-ferry-launched-from-dublin-port-1.3468760
New ships on existing routes:
https://www.independent.ie/life/tra...ips-for-stena-and-irish-ferries-37686712.html
Extending new seasonal services to Spain and hanging on to interim ships that would otherwise have been returned to their owners.

 

[Hrothbern]

yes and no.
Various companies have been adding capacity with new direct routes to Belgium and the Netherlands :
'It can accommodate more than 600 lorries and is almost twice the size of any ferry currently operating out of Dublin Port. If all the parking lanes on the 235m long boat were laid end to end, it would stretch to almost 8 kilometres, making it the world’s largest short sea roll-on roll-off vessel.'
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ire...ing-ferry-launched-from-dublin-port-1.3468760
New ships on existing routes:
https://www.independent.ie/life/tra...ips-for-stena-and-irish-ferries-37686712.html
Extending new seasonal services to Spain and hanging on to interim ships that would otherwise have been returned to their owners.

Do I understand that the ferries available have since many months ago already have been claimed by commercial companies ?

Leaving a too late reacting UK cabinet the crumbs and the silly ?

 

[Kyriakos]

Do I understand that the ferries available have since many months ago already have been claimed by commercial companies ?

Leaving a too late reacting UK cabinet the crumbs and the silly ?

Do ferries have to operate with a flag like open sea merchant ships? If so, and they are foreign run, it will cost a lot iirc to run under the british flag. If they dont have a flag it wont be an issue, but i think the british gov wont like eg ferries with panama flag or norwegian or greek.

 

[Arakhor]

And this is what happens when you insist on trying to run the country by explicitly minimising Parliament at every turn. The Cooper amendment was passed by seven votes, limiting no-deal spending by the Treasury without Parliamentary approval. Two other amendments were defeated, one by only 11 votes.

 

[Kyriakos]

And this is what happens when you insist on trying to run the country by explicitly minimising Parliament at every turn. The Cooper amendment was passed by seven votes, limiting no-deal spending by the Treasury without Parliamentary approval. Two other amendments were defeated, one by only 11 votes.

Hm, why did tory mps vote against the gov on this? Are there so many full-on cancel brexit tories? (I can only think of one, that gray-haired woman*)

* obviously not may

Edit:i forgot ken clarke, but he is like 2000 years old. The fallon guy is that disgustingly simian tory scum? Meh

 

[innonimatu]

Can someone please explain why exactly is there supposed to be a special need for ferries the day after leave? Is the geographic position of the UK going to magically change in the map?

Because those ferries are still going to EU member countries, the same ports as before brexit. Unless they intend to divert ferry routes to Morocco and Norway... Managing (prioritizing) capacity on existing ferries is the one thing that may be necessary, and should be planned in advance. Preventing changes to existing ferry routes should also be a priority, not contracting new ferries.

Also, I was reading a summary of the day's news and this came up, is it correct?

The amendment to a key government bill was tabled by Commons home affairs committee chair Yvette Cooper and supported by 303 MPs to 296.
It prevents ministers from introducing new tax rises in the case of a no-deal Brexit unless MPs have specifically voted in favour of leaving the EU without an agreement.

It is complete idiocy. Don't these people understand that if the government does nothing the default is leaving with no deal? That no vote on leaving is required, this are automatic in the absence of a vote? That the UK is juts one party to the process, the EU is the other and may not agree to the wild ideas continuously being thrown about by UK politicians?

It came from Yvette Cooper, so idiocy was to be expected. But for all of Labor to have voted for this... they are irresponsible, Corbyn included. They do not deserve to govern, any more than May does. I could have excused him for a lot of things, due to the predominance of blairites among Labour MPs, but this particular political gamble is inexcusable. It is the party leader's duty, to the country's and its inhabitants at this stage, to be absolutely realistically and truthful, not to play along with idiocies. Bad enough that he has gone on so long promising castles in the sky ("a better deal").