Brexit Thread V - The Final Countdown?!?
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Why can't we just be friends?
For one thing, i am sure id rather have the weather where you are than the stupid snow here.
Indeed the government didn't. And they didn't - maybe because they were incompetent - but definitely because they were populist to the core and giving up the euro was definitely not the popular choice.
https://web.archive.org/web/2015070...lead-syriza-public-issue-poll-support-euro-71
I agree that the government screwed up its negotiating position and then promptly dishonored its own referendum result though.
Greece could have defaulted. Perhaps it should have - I don't know that. They didn't dare to bite that bullet. They didn't even dare to seriously prepare for that option, which is the only reason ECB had the amount of leverage they had. If they had had balls to default, neither EU nor ECB could have stopped them. (Whether they would be better off today, or in 10 years, I don't know).
Since Greece did not dare to go with "normal process of capitalism" - because it would have brought a lot of pain - they in fact did need new loans.
And if those new loans were neither earmarked for repaying previous debt nor tied to austerity conditions, they would have constituted de facto humanitarian aid - because noone would believe they would ever be repaid.
Ordinary people do tend to remember a longer period of high inflation, because it creates a mess for ordinary people and small companies.
Inflation above typical 8% are not easily tolerated anymore, everybody trying postponing paying bills, prices changing, wages lagging, new debts having high interests including the fear factor, etc.
Both Greece and Italy had such a long high period of inflation. For many people in Italy/Greece the EU/Euro was first of all a reliable currency. As reflected in polls on that.
But this period having been from the mid 70ies to mostly the mid 80ies (Greece until 1992), this horror disappears from the collective memory over time.
In some countries disappearing faster from the collective memories than others for ... reasons. The UK was a decade above 8% and peaked at 24% inflation. Who living now in the UK has that sharp in memory ?
When economicals models estimate a period with high inflation (not >10% BTW) for a cliff edge no-deal... who is being made afraid of that ? The GBP is sterling solid national pride.
The UK BTW for several years now in the same twin deficit situation as Greece was. A Current Account deficit (from the negative trade balance) and a fiscal deficit.
The cliff edge no-deal is bound to start as a rollercoaster with inflation and high volatility of the GBP after it crashes likely to parity with the EU/USD before finding a stable point.
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Moderator Action: I seem to recall telling people that the Brexit thread is not the thread for Grecian financial woes. Any further off-topic ramblings will be moderated appropriately.
Please read the forum rules: http://forums.civfanatics.com/showthread.php?t=422889
Please read the forum rules: http://forums.civfanatics.com/showthread.php?t=422889
The much-delayed vote will be on 15th January and will not be called off this time (according to 'sources'). A junior Brexit minister says that he thinks it will succeed this time. How is anyone's guess if people's minds haven't changed in the last month.
Hm, assuming that virtually no one will vote for it from the parties not in the gov, how is it at all likely for it to pass? Even a couple of torries not voting for it would make a majority impossible, no?
Any brexit news? Or at least news about the new ferry?
How about trucks ?
Minister of Transport Grayling tested the issues of the traffic jams near Dover:
Not even the planned
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A trial holding area near the channel tunnel and Dover for excess trucks is being tested today. I'm not sure what it intends to achieve but is supposedly monitoring traffic flows.
It would be interesting to see what would happen if French customs authorities were able to test their capacity to process imports at the same time.
It would be interesting to see what would happen if French customs authorities were able to test their capacity to process imports at the same time.
Cheetah
Deity
Labour collaborators, perhaps?
Wouldnt that at least require concessions? Afaik full exit from the common market is the main tory red line.
"The iconic 'fields of wheat' moment"
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The DUP won't, because they're the party of No. Lexiters might (such as Kate Hoey, but there's only half a dozen or so of those). Labour, the SNP, Green and Plaid Cymru are unlikely to vote for it, so unless the Tories vote for it en masse, the deal is dead (something we already knew back in November).
Apparently the company has no contract yet, despite having a contract with the continental port being a prerequisite to even be eligible to get the work.
Also, maybe there arent any free ferries in the uk. Perhaps some euro company will make a few extra millions by asking some larger fee for them
The deal will remain undead until March, because there are few other options. I don't think that Parliament has the guts to vote for remain, there is no time for a referendum or a new election, and does Labour really want to share the responsibility for a no-deal Brexit? Soon there will have to be the vote: This deal or a no-deal Brexit. How are Labour, the SNP, Green and Plaid Cymru going to justify voting for a no-deal Brexit?
brennan
Argumentative Brit
Corbyn is still sitting on his fence, but a poll today apparently reported that 72% of Labour members wanted some sort of 'final say' i.e. a second referendum, and a massive 88% of them would now vote remain if they got the option, so maybe his fence-sitting days will come to an end.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...vote-final-say-jeremy-corbyn-eu-a8706586.html
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...vote-final-say-jeremy-corbyn-eu-a8706586.html
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While a second ref sort of makes sense, it also doesnt, due to it no longer being about remain/leave. But a rejoin/stay out ref would also be farcical so soon after the first ref.
Imo it will suck if somehow a second ref can have a remain (distinct from rejoin) option, but it isnt like there is rule of law in the eu so whatever. Still, it would mean that two years were spent on nothing at all.
And -apparently- a second ref with remain as an option would also require the eu to postpone its own euro elections (where atm therewould be no british candidates).
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Except that the Government is explicitly required to return to Parliament if the vote on her deal fails. The PM would dearly love to make it only "my deal or no deal", but if that really were the case, the vote would wouldn't have been called off last month with no notice.
EnglishEdward
Deity
The link you referenced contains:
Rob Merrick Deputy Political Editor @Rob_Merrick 5 days ago
and refers to Labour members, not Labour voters.
I am not sure why the EU would need to postpone its elections.
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