Brexit Thread V - The Final Countdown?!?

[Senethro]

This isn't much of an event imo. They're frustrated anti-corbynists who have made an assessment of their likely future career trajectories have jumped before they were pushed. My prediction: A blaze of glory, a fall from relevance, a sudden heel turn to support May's deal and the securing of a consulting job in industry.

Of mild concern is that they're a group, not a party. Parties have to obey funding rules and disclose donations....

 

[Silurian]

So are they trying for a new SDP?

Well the SDP still exists but is as relevant as the Monster Raving Loony Party.

A new middle party would take votes from the LibDems as well as the main parties and would be unlikely to gain seats outside of bye elections. As @sherbz noted the only way small parties can gain ground is if there is PR.

From The Guardian

Japanese officials have reportedly accused Jeremy Hunt and Liam Fox of taking a “high-handed” approach towards a post-Brexit free trade deal, and briefly considered cancelling bilateral talks due to take place this week.
...
...
The newspaper (FT) also reported that Japanese trade officials were growing frustrated with their British counterparts, who had arrived at meetings without specialists capable of taking the talks forward.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...talks-high-handed-letter-liam-fox-jeremy-hunt

I wonder if Hunt said that his wife was Japanese again.

I suppose they would think that trade deals were easy if they have no specialists to advise them, but who needs experts.

 

[Hrothbern]

A brave but politically bad decision IMO. If i was choosing a system i would have:

- This new group made up of moderates from labour and tories - this group would absorb the Liberals
- All Brexit tories should join with Farage in his new party
- Labour rremain under Corbyn and concentrate primarily in London and the north.

But it would need PR to work. And we dont have it. I lament at the AV vote even more now. As any sort of move like this is destined to fail.

The last couple of days there was more and more talking about a new "one-nation" party, that could absorb part of the voters of the Lib Dems, the "one-nation" faction of the Tories and these independents of Labour.
The only Green movement affiliated with Labour SERA (Socialist Environment and Resources Association) took clear position in favor of remaining in the EU because of environment.
The anti-semitism and higher degree of authoritarian culture in the rank and file of the old guard of Labour is out of date with the younger generations.

Where will the votes of the young generations go to ?
Back to the polarising past or taking their chances despite the big hurdle of having no proportional representation system ?
Or just disconnecting from politics with a low turn-out (seems most likely to me).

If Art 50 is extended and EU MP elections must be held in the UK... will these "one-nation" politicians campaign together ?
and get the same effect as UKIP in the 2014 EU elections in such a proportional representation system ?

 

[Kyriakos]

Umuna left labour? What a surprise. He was only the lamest of the lame pos mps.
Too bad they didnt take tony ben's unworthy son with them.

 

[Cheetah]

But it would need PR to work. And we dont have it. I lament at the AV vote even more now. As any sort of move like this is destined to fail.

Yeah, your two-party system is really the root of all your political problems.

But how to get the Conservatives and Labour to remove the rule that keeps them alternating in power...

 

[Hrothbern]

Umuna left labour? What a surprise. He was only the lamest of the lame pos mps.
Too bad they didnt take tony ben's unworthy son with them.

In a two party system it is essential to keep your party together.
It is not only within your party that you have Blairite politicians... they are also among the voter base of Labour.

 

[Kyriakos]

Are they really, though?
Who would vote for blairites atm?

 

[Hrothbern]

From The Guardian

Japanese officials have reportedly accused Jeremy Hunt and Liam Fox of taking a “high-handed” approach towards a post-Brexit free trade deal, and briefly considered cancelling bilateral talks due to take place this week.
...
...
The newspaper (FT) also reported that Japanese trade officials were growing frustrated with their British counterparts, who had arrived at meetings without specialists capable of taking the talks forward.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...talks-high-handed-letter-liam-fox-jeremy-hunt

I wonder if Hunt said that his wife was Japanese again.

I suppose they would think that trade deals were easy if they have no specialists to advise them, but who needs experts.

Without specialists no real trading talks.

I think the Japanese did correctly recognise that Fox and Hunt were not interested in making real progress at those trading talks, but were only interested in (ab)using those visits to get fluffy PR in the tabloids for domestic political purposes.
And yes ofc.... why would Japan engage in serious trade talks when the UK-EU relation is unclear and the likely GBP to YEN rate is unclear (a 10% change in currency rate is similar to a 10% WTO-FTA tariff rate change)

 

[Hrothbern]

Are they really, though?
Who would vote for blairites atm?

I think that at least 30% of the Labour voters would, instead of Corbyn policies, prefer Blairite economical policies incl remain in the EU (and without stupid foreign military adventures).

 

[Hrothbern]

Yeah, your two-party system is really the root of all your political problems.

But how to get the Conservatives and Labour to remove the rule that keeps them alternating in power...

For me one of the lessons learned is that the EU should not allow new full members if they have not a proportional representation system.

 

[AmazonQueen]

I think that at least 30% of the Labour voters would, instead of Corbyn policies, prefer Blairite economical policies incl remain in the EU (and without stupid foreign military adventures).

I certainly don't think Corbyn can attract enough votes to win a majority but the degree of scepticism and mistrust people show towards the Blairites make them an unlikely gang to succeed.
Other centre-left groups like the Lib Dems and Greens would be wise to steer clear of them.

 

[sherbz]

Are they really, though?
Who would vote for blairites atm?

I think quite a few actually would. Certainly the older generation of 50+ - the ones who were around during the time of Foot and saw the impotence of the militant left. Of course, you would have to change the name of it. But in terms of policy Blair wasnt actually that wide of the mark. Many of my parents friends (the over 60s) wont vote for Corbyn come hell or high water.

 

[Hrothbern]

I certainly don't think Corbyn can attract enough votes to win a majority but the degree of scepticism and mistrust people show towards the Blairites make them an unlikely gang to succeed.
Other centre-left groups like the Lib Dems and Greens would be wise to steer clear of them.

Yes
Blair is rightfully contaminated to the degree of toxic, nuclear waste (his military decisions).
The Lib Dems are burned as well to some degree.
Together creating empty political space that could be filled up again: the UKIP and Corbyn benefitting.

But the economical policies of Blair were mostly a little bit leftish of a "one-nation" party. And I think that has still an appeal to many voters. The question in a two party system is: who can appeal to and absorb those voters.

 

[sherbz]

I certainly don't think Corbyn can attract enough votes to win a majority but the degree of scepticism and mistrust people show towards the Blairites make them an unlikely gang to succeed.
Other centre-left groups like the Lib Dems and Greens would be wise to steer clear of them.

Labour has always had a problem with tribalism IMO. And its worse in the heartlands. You live in south wales (me too actually - Barry). And thats a Labour heartland. The north is also. But the south isnt (not including London and the student havens of Oxford/Cambridge). Neither is the midlands.

 

[AmazonQueen]

Labour has always had a problem with tribalism IMO. And its worse in the heartlands. You live in south wales (me too actually - Barry). And thats a Labour heartland. The north is also. But the south isnt (not including London and the student havens of Oxford/Cambridge). Neither is the midlands.

Just down the road, Penarth
I think Labour is dying (as are the Tories). Both are no longer mass membership parties like they used to be.
Corbyn did bring an influx of young, radical supporters but they don't have that much in common with old left Labourites apart from dissatisfaction with the Blairites and Tories.
Trouble is its hard for new parties to gain a foothold under our system.
It took years of the Tories ignoring Scotland and Labour taking it for granted for the SNP to become a real force.

 

[sherbz]

Just down the road, Penarth
I think Labour is dying (as are the Tories). Both are no longer mass membership parties like they used to be.
Corbyn did bring an influx of young, radical supporters but they don't have that much in common with old left Labourites apart from dissatisfaction with the Blairites and Tories.
Trouble is its hard for new parties to gain a foothold under our system.
It took years of the Tories ignoring Scotland and Labour taking it for granted for the SNP to become a real force.

Yes, I agree. And if they are going to die, i hope they do it quickly and preferably together

 

[Ironsided]

Good riddance to bad rubbish, basically. Good thing the two party system is crumbling; it’s becoming increasingly non-representative in an ever more complex world.

Lovely how it’s being played as for the pity of young voters. Young voters have never been more politically involved and vocal. It wasn’t the 50- or 60-somethings who backed Corbyn to the largest gain for Labour in 70 years, was it? It was mainly the 20- and 30-somethings. The once who wanted actual change in the debates.

The more populist part of the party (the labour-MP-of-convenience, much like the blind faith EU-fan club on this forum) was always going to grab a big juicy guaranteed popular stance. That does not constitute in-line for the younger vote. Young voters are turning their parent’s vegan. 15-yearolds are striking and marching for climate. They have bigger and more important issues than banks possibly moving to Frankfurt. They care about being part of Europe, and have the same rights as other Europeans to move and take a job in Barcelona if they so wish.

With so much talk of not having a plan for Brexit, what exactly is the plan to make a new referendum somehow more legit than the first? That’s right; again there is none. The protests won’t stop. It will just be taken over by the other side. This play is essentially an ill-concealed power grab on ordinary people’s fears. The Brits fears that EU will abandon or punish them for their non-compliance. That will not happen. The EU will do everything in its power to win back the Brits. Just not now because the EU cannot afford members to behave like little spoiled and whimsical brats. To my knowledge there is nothing preventing the UK to apply for EU membership again in a few years or maybe better yet get a deal that works in tandem with reality and their sense of exceptionality.

 

[Senethro]

Brexiteers are too old to do big protests or civil unrest.

 

[Silurian]

@Senethro
There are plenty of young Brexiteers as there are old Remainers.

 

[Senethro]

Nah. I don’t believe it.