Brexit Thread V - The Final Countdown?!?

[AmazonQueen]

Good riddance to bad rubbish, basically. Good thing the two party system is crumbling; it’s becoming increasingly non-representative in an ever more complex world.

Lovely how it’s being played as for the pity of young voters. Young voters have never been more politically involved and vocal. It wasn’t the 50- or 60-somethings who backed Corbyn to the largest gain for Labour in 70 years, was it? It was mainly the 20- and 30-somethings. The once who wanted actual change in the debates.

The more populist part of the party (the labour-MP-of-convenience, much like the blind faith EU-fan club on this forum) was always going to grab a big juicy guaranteed popular stance. That does not constitute in-line for the younger vote. Young voters are turning their parent’s vegan. 15-yearolds are striking and marching for climate. They have bigger and more important issues than banks possibly moving to Frankfurt. They care about being part of Europe, and have the same rights as other Europeans to move and take a job in Barcelona if they so wish.

With so much talk of not having a plan for Brexit, what exactly is the plan to make a new referendum somehow more legit than the first? That’s right; again there is none. The protests won’t stop. It will just be taken over by the other side. This play is essentially an ill-concealed power grab on ordinary people’s fears. The Brits fears that EU will abandon or punish them for their non-compliance. That will not happen. The EU will do everything in its power to win back the Brits. Just not now because the EU cannot afford members to behave like little spoiled and whimsical brats. To my knowledge there is nothing preventing the UK to apply for EU membership again in a few years or maybe better yet get a deal that works in tandem with reality and their sense of exceptionality.

Trouble is we still have an electoral system designed for 2 parties and the Tories can always outspend their opponents.
Even with a mass union movement backing Labour the Tories were in power two thirds of the time.

 

[Kyriakos]

Even so, cameroon would never leave the jungle to become pm if it wasnt for the lame libdems backing it.

 

[really]

Sky is reporting that Honda are to announce tomorrow the closure of their only EU factory in the UK in 2022.
3,500 jobs directly.

 

[Hrothbern]

Nah. I don’t believe it.

A clear diff but still enough young Brexiteers

https://www.statista.com/statistics/567922/distribution-of-eu-referendum-votes-by-age-and-gender-uk/

 

[sherbz]

A clear diff but still enough young Brexiteers

View attachment 518311

https://www.statista.com/statistics/567922/distribution-of-eu-referendum-votes-by-age-and-gender-uk/

Put a union jack on your poster and enough pictures of brown people queuing up next to the word "migration"and people will vote for you. Such is the way of sheep.

 

[Sommerswerd]

I just read up a little bit more on the "backstop" issue. Jeez... it seems way worse than I was thinking.

 

[Silurian]

I just read up a little bit more on the "backstop" issue. Jeez... it seems way worse than I was thinking.

The EU is trying to prevent a hard border which leads to another spiral of violence that kills thousands of people. 3500 dead last time.
The current Northern Ireland minister knew nothing about the conflict so it is not surprising that the UK government set up red lines that resulted in the backstop.

 

[metatron]

A clear diff but still enough young Brexiteers

Old women voted less remain than old men.
That's quite entertaining.

I just read up a little bit more on the "backstop" issue. Jeez... it seems way worse than I was thinking.

Of course it's worse.
We could have told you it's worse.

 

[Silurian]

Sky is reporting that Honda are to announce tomorrow the closure of their only EU factory in the UK in 2022.
3,500 jobs directly.

And at least another 6000 jobs in suppliers.


Most likely they will be moving the jobs back to Japan following the EU Japan trade deal which the UK will be pulling out of on the 29th March.
No tariffs on cars sold directly from Japan against unknown future in UK.

 

[Kyriakos]

The EU is trying to prevent a hard border which leads to another spiral of violence that kills thousands of people. 3500 dead last time.
The current Northern Ireland minister knew nothing about the conflict so it is not surprising that the UK government set up red lines that resulted in the backstop.

Yes, avoiding death in ireland is exactly why the eu wants the backstop.
Any loss of life is anathema to the eu, and this is reflected on their policies. Eg austerity was forced not to avoid minor inflation but to tend against overpopulation in south eu by securing just enough mass suicides.

 

[Hrothbern]

Old women voted less remain than old men.
That's quite entertaining.

Yes, I pondered on it as well
Could also partially come from women of 65+ being on average older than men

The turn-out of the oldies was IIRC 90% or so.

 

[AmazonQueen]

Of course it's worse.
We could have told you it's worse.

On the plus side Liam Fox negotiating trade deals and Chris Grayling doing, well anything really, will join Basil Fawlty and Captain Mainwaring as British comedy classics. One has to look hard for a plus side.

And at least another 6000 jobs in suppliers.


Most likely they will be moving the jobs back to Japan following the EU Japan trade deal which the UK will be pulling out of on the 29th March.
No tariffs on cars sold directly from Japan against unknown future in UK.

Or set up a new plant in Eastern Europe or Spain. The attraction of the UK for the Japanese was that its in the EU. They've been setting up plants around the world. Nissan for example has plants in the US, Mexico, Brazil and India (amongst other places).
What do they care if the UK makes a trade deal with the US? They aren't going to export cars from the UK to the US when they are already building cars in the US.

 

[Ironsided]

Trouble is we still have an electoral system designed for 2 parties and the Tories can always outspend their opponents.
Even with a mass union movement backing Labour the Tories were in power two thirds of the time.

But you already have more than two parties. Isn't it perhaps more an issue of reforming the electoral system then?

 

[Cheetah]

But you already have more than two parties. Isn't it perhaps more an issue of reforming the electoral system then?

Sure. But again, how do you get the two big ones to vote for a law that will harm them? No matter how good the effects of the law will be.

 

[Ironsided]

If it’s for the best of the UK, that is their mandate.

 

[Hrothbern]

Or set up a new plant in Eastern Europe or Spain. The attraction of the UK for the Japanese was that its in the EU. They've been setting up plants around the world. Nissan for example has plants in the US, Mexico, Brazil and India (amongst other places).
What do they care if the UK makes a trade deal with the US? They aren't going to export cars from the UK to the US when they are already building cars in the US.

With the winding down of diesel and petrol cars... Japan is a good base from where cars can go in all directions. Setting up a new base is a big investment for a kind of cars that will end.
IDK how expensive mass volume shipping is for cars, but I guess less than 10% of the car value.

And France, Spain.... countries with strikes and protective labour laws, in France board representation for the unions, and high wages. When Thatcher offered a business friendly environment to the Japanese... that was the period that a million miners became unemployed. The strikes were crushed by Thatcher. She offered the UK as hub to the EU and send a brilliant civil servant to Brussels to design the liberalised Single Market, to get better access.

East Europe ? Political stable ? The Japanese are really risk averse.
The wages low. I guess it could be the place for the new electric (hydrogen) generation. In one of the most stable countries.

 

[Cheetah]

If it’s for the best of the UK, that is their mandate.

That's a refreshingly optimistic perspective!

With the winding down of diesel and petrol cars... Japan is a good base from where cars can go in all directions. Setting up a new base is a big investment for a kind of cars that will end.
IDK how expensive mass volume shipping is for cars, but I guess less than 10% of the car value.

Shipping stuff, especially non-perishable stuff that people are willing to wait a bit for, is really, really, cheap.

 

[AmazonQueen]

If it’s for the best of the UK, that is their mandate.

Labour and the Tories will never vote for it when they dream of getting absolute power. There was a real chance of electoral reform in 97 before Labour got its big majority but ofc Labour went off the idea when it got its big majority.
Biggest of the many failures of Nick Clegg is he sold out the LDP dream of genuine electoral reform in exchange for a seat at the big boys table.

 

[Hrothbern]

That's a refreshingly optimistic perspective!

Shipping stuff, especially non-perishable stuff that people are willing to wait a bit for, is really, really, cheap.

yes
I saw a while ago a big article with the intercontinental shipping cost since 1960. The price was down to 20% or so compared to 1960.
Trade is very much logistics.
With the flat TV sets of today, hardly volume left... how would the cost build up be from a manufacruring site in South Korea to for example London ?
Say ex works the price is 100. How much for shipping, the WTO tariff, land-logistics, the retail chain, the VAT ?
And that compared to buying that same TV set in South Korea.

Non-tariff barriers and a steady currency devaluation are the only real trade barriers left for the protection of your domestic manufacturing.

 

[AmazonQueen]

With the winding down of diesel and petrol cars... Japan is a good base from where cars can go in all directions. Setting up a new base is a big investment for a kind of cars that will end.
IDK how expensive mass volume shipping is for cars, but I guess less than 10% of the car value.

And France, Spain.... countries with strikes and protective labour laws, in France board representation for the unions, and high wages. When Thatcher offered a business friendly environment to the Japanese... that was the period that a million miners became unemployed. The strikes were crushed by Thatcher. She offered the UK as hub to the EU and send a brilliant civil servant to Brussels to design the liberalised Single Market, to get better access.

East Europe ? Political stable ? The Japanese are really risk averse.
The wages low. I guess it could be the place for the new electric (hydrogen) generation. In one of the most stable countries.

Still it shows up one of the flaws in the Brexiteers arguments.
Nissan and other Japanese companies already have routes into the US, India, South America etc. The UK is no help with those markets, its value was a way into the EU.