Brexit Thread V - The Final Countdown?!?

[AmazonQueen]

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...m-fox-post-brexit-trade-plan-go-unscrutinised

As far as I'm aware trade deals are a matter for the government and don't require parliamentary approval. If Liam Fox makes them on the terms suggested hes thinking about it will tie the hands of any future Corbyn government much more than EU rules do.

 

[Hrothbern]

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...m-fox-post-brexit-trade-plan-go-unscrutinised

As far as I'm aware trade deals are a matter for the government and don't require parliamentary approval. If Liam Fox makes them on the terms suggested hes thinking about it will tie the hands of any future Corbyn government much more than EU rules do.

I was already afraid it would be that way

I find it flabbergasting.
How little do politicians understand economical realities.
like spoiled kids fighting over what color candy should have, protected by what earlier generations of polticians and specialists did build up... and now clueless what matters if there is a really big change.

 

[Arakhor]

You often get vox-pops of people in Leave constituencies saying that their MP should support Leave. You almost never hear these people concede the same for MPs from Remain constituencies. Any guesses why?

Meanwhile, the utterly useless Liam Fox has admitted another failure. He's been at this job for over two years and so far has secured trade deals with seven juggernauts of commerce: Switzerland, Chile, the Faroe Islands, Eastern and Southern Africa, Israel and the Palestinian Authority. Our future's in safe hands, folks!

 

[Yeekim]

@Arakhor Eastern Africa?

 

[Broken_Erika]

Must be Nambia. That way you'll have access to the covfefe producers.

 

[Cheetah]

@Arakhor Eastern Africa?

I'm kinda assuming he's referring to the East African Community

 

[innonimatu]

In general: a too low set of percentages on that WTO tariff list (like the EU list), does not belong to a smaller country (the UK) but can only be used by big economies (economy of scale effect) or narrow specialists (Singapore).

I'm not a fan of FTA (in case anyone thinks otherwise). But I do not want to argue about its possible benefits and drawbacks, I want to ask why you consider the UK to be a "smaller country". Smaller than what? I must question this because it comes up quite often in other arguments also.

The EU is not a country, it is an association of countries. Only one of which is larger than the UK in population, and then not much larger. Likewise in "economic metrics", arguable though those may be. The UK is "larger" than Canada both in population and in those economic metrics. Have people been suggesting that Canada is doomed because it is too small? Larger than South Korea, South Africa, or seemingly perennially embargoed but still resisting Iran. Is is about 50% smaller than japan, and though it became "weaker" economically over recent decades, it's probably still strategically in a better position.

Writing away the UK just because it is no longer the imperial behemoth that it gradually ceased to be some 60 years ago, just because t no longer is one of three or four "world powers" splitting the world among themselves, is a mistake.

One of the projects the EU has running is the potential of further eliminating borders to tap into the economical potential of "trade" between small companies and public services (like hospitals) across borders.
Similar to the intertwining across the Irish border we have now and at risk by Brexit. That EU growth potential with not too big efforts, though a long term program, was estimated at Euro 200 Billion additional GDP.

One of the most fundamental reasons of the EU to come with the Eurozone was tho encourage companies to trade more within the Eurozone, making the Eurozone (the EU) less dependant on international trade.
At the same time making the Eurozone more acttractive for international trade partners because of price stability between Eurozone countries from 1 currency, instead of always differing prices over time from a multitude of changing currency values.
Making the EU more attractive for international trade partners... meaning making it easier to get better FTA's with bigger quotas at reduced tariffs for exports of the EU.

The UK missed all that.

Is this about the Eurozone were true, then looking at official statistics why has the Eurozone as an aggregate grown (economically) less that the EU countries outside the Eurozone, since the EU was created? IF the Euro was supposed to be an advantage over those who did not had the Euro, why has the outcome been the opposite?

In fact has there been any promise of economic benefits from any EU initiative that actually delivered according to the numbers used in the propaganda to push its approval through? Any one?

I don't ask about current future promises. I ask about past promises that time has tested. Have they ever delivered according to the numbers printed on those promises?

 

[EnglishEdward]

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...m-fox-post-brexit-trade-plan-go-unscrutinised

As far as I'm aware trade deals are a matter for the government and don't require parliamentary approval.
If Liam Fox makes them on the terms suggested hes thinking about it will tie the hands of any future Corbyn government much more than EU rules do.

This is a concern, particularly:

But something that has slipped by virtually unnoticed is the government’s plan to include investor-state
dispute settlement (ISDS) mechanisms in future trade deals. ISDS clauses let foreign investors sue national
governments for introducing policies that harm their profits. They have led to global corporations taking
governments to secretive private arbitration courts in cases that can cost taxpayers billions.

The UK Parliament should scrutinise such deals, but sadly they seem to prioritise laws on upskirting.

 

[Silurian]

Another MP has quit Labour.

from Sky

MP Ian Austin has revealed he is quitting the Labour Party, claiming it is "broken" under Jeremy Corbyn's leadership.

https://news.sky.com/story/ian-austin-quits-broken-labour-party-over-jeremy-corbyn-11644476

Meanwhile a opposition to the hard line Brexiteers of ERG is hardening in the Conservative Party.

From Guardian

Dozens of Conservative MPs are prepared to vote against the government in order to block the UK leaving the EU without a deal, one of the leaders of a group of more than 100 Tory politicians has said.

The warning to Theresa May was delivered on Friday by Andrew Percy of the Brexit delivery group – regarded in the party as a moderate band of remain and Brexit-supporting MPs – who said many wanted to act if the “intransigence” of hardline Brexiters led again to the prime minister’s own deal being rejected by parliament.

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...ory-mps-ready-block-no-deal-brexit-may-warned

 

[Kyriakos]

Corbyn was wrong not to purge the party of all blairts :/

 

[Silurian]

I don't think Corbyn would want to be left with a small rump of MP's.

 

[Kyriakos]

I don't think Corbyn would want to be left with a small rump of MP's.

Come next election it's not like blairies will be selected/electable anyway.

 

[Silurian]

@Kyriakos
What has changed since 2017.

 

[Hrothbern]

Corbyn was wrong not to purge the party of all blairts :/

He could have done that, and perhaps, perhaps it would not have affected the number of seats he got in 2017.

but
it would have been an all or nothing gamble

Reality is that most labour voters are not alligned to the political style, the political culture of the Corbyn leadership,
and at least one-third is not alligned to Corbyn's political direcion
And two-thirds want a new referendum including the chance to Remain AND want Corbyn supporting that clearly. Many of them the canvassers of the last election victory for Labour.
It is only loyalty to the broad church of Labour that kept them voting on Labour, and the style of Corbyn is not favorable for a broad church (just like with May now)

If those Labour MP moderates would have been purged, Labour would have lost contact with the Labour voters described above.

And a bigger risk on the "nothing" in that all or nothing purge strategy in the next elections.

 

[Manfred Belheim]

You often get vox-pops of people in Leave constituencies saying that their MP should support Leave. You almost never hear these people concede the same for MPs from Remain constituencies. Any guesses why?

Because the desires of MPs are already skewed in favour of Remain compared to the electorate? Also, because their concern is to have their opinion represented by their MP, which seems reasonable.

 

[Lexicus]

I don't think Corbyn would want to be left with a small rump of MP's.

That's true, but he also wouldn't want to betray the party membership that elected him - twice - to do him, not to turn into a New Labor hack.

 

[Silurian]

That's true, but he also wouldn't want to betray the party membership that elected him - twice - to do him, not to turn into a New Labor hack.

Also he does not want to just be leader of the Corbyn appreciation society.
He has to engage with non members to gain power.

 

[Manfred Belheim]

They're certainly non-members now (depending on your use of the word "member" of course).

 

[Hrothbern]

A £41 Trillion (!) deal between the EU and the UK London was secured last Monday.

I wondered already why the Pound was on Tuesday early morning suddenly more than 1% higher against the USD and Euro.
The MP defectors filling the newsmedia ???

Perhaps it was this silent deal that in effect means that even in a cliff edge no-deal, there is a bare bone no-deal arrangement for London City Financial Services that the EU needs... as if there is no Brexit at all.
It will no doubt be temporary, but a transition to EU centres will need an enormous long transition time to transfer activities without risks and disruptions.

Up to £41tn in financial guarantees, insurances, hedges and other derivatives, all within the EU’s regulatory regime, is said to be at risk in the City’s clearing houses. For everyone involved, this is a grownup business, not to be left to the mercies of the likes of Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees-Mogg. The regulators have duly issued licences to the clearing houses, allowing Europe’s banks to disregard EU rules and continue trading on London’s derivatives platforms. Financially speaking, London is to become a “free port”. Sighs of relief all round.

The real gap that Brexit will widen yet further is not just between financial services and trade in food and manufactures. It is between London and the rest of the country. Already the Treasury’s staggering £4.2bn “for Brexit preparations” is tipping jobs into the capital. The greatest irony is that London and the south-east of England, which voted overwhelmingly for remain, will emerge from a hard Brexit richer than ever. It is the provinces that voted leave that will suffer. Manufacturing will slide towards recession, while Londoners smile all the way to the bank – a bank for which Brexit will not exist.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/feb/22/city-free-port-brexit-deal-bankers

 

[Silurian]

They're certainly non-members now (depending on your use of the word "member" of course).

I was talking about the general public and @Lexicus was referring to the rank and file members not the MP's.
Obviously you have to carry the rank and file with you or they will not knock on doors for you but you also need the general public to be willing to open the door and listen.